Oops - posted SB wait 10 - actual 40!

[PJ]

Got to AK about 10:15 Monday - lines at FP kiosks were long (we have AP's so no advance FP's) so we went right to the Safari.

Posted time (and MDE) both said 10 min SB - we thought that looked optimistic and figured it would probably be double that, but that still wouldn't be bad so we got in line.

After 30 minutes in line I checked MDE again and they had updated it to 65 minutes! Our wait turned out to be 40

On the plus side, we had a very enjoyable visit with others in line, but we were surprised that the times were that far off.

 

[Mad Hattered]

Got to AK about 10:15 Monday - lines at FP kiosks were long (we have AP's so no advance FP's) so we went right to the Safari.

Posted time (and MDE) both said 10 min SB - we thought that looked optimistic and figured it would probably be double that, but that still wouldn't be bad so we got in line.

After 30 minutes in line I checked MDE again and they had updated it to 65 minutes! Our wait turned out to be 40

On the plus side, we had a very enjoyable visit with others in line, but we were surprised that the times were that far off.

Posted SB wait times are still in the "testing" phase.

 

[DNightmare]

Posted SB wait times are still in the "testing" phase.

^WIN!!!

 

[Good Morning Dewdrop]

there is a good chance an animal decided to 'hang out' on the road and all of the safari vehicles had to wait until it moved. Been there done that both in the vehicle (we've had a white rhino in the road and a giraffe that wouldn't move) and in the line (we were up towards the front at that point so we could tell that the vehicles were no longer coming up / being loaded).

 

[jcemom]

Posted SB wait times are still in the "testing" phase.

 

[FireDancer]

Sometimes wait times will be an under-estimate, sometimes an over-estimate. It all evens out.

The safari is very popular early in the morning because the animals are generally more active early because of the cooler temperatures. Because of that many guests enter the park and head right to it. A wait time could change from 10 minutes to 40 or 65 very quickly, much more quickly then the app can be updated.

I found that most lines were shorter then their posted wait times in both DHS and Epcot when I was there once the early morning rushes propagated to the app.

 

[Moonwolf]

I always figured wait times to be rough estimates. Most of the time they'd be over but there's always the chance a ride delay or a bunch of people entering the line at once cause them to be under. It all works out in the end.

On my last trip most of the lines read 20 min waits when really it was more like 10 for most of them. Then on the other hand one time we went to go to ride Winnie the Pooh when the stand by time said 20 mins. We ended up waiting over 30 mins (not as bad as your wait but still). The reason the wait was so long was because a large group of people had just entered the line right before us and they hadn't changed the time (they changed it a few minutes later but we figured since we were already on line we'd stick it out).

 

[JimmyV]

Sometimes wait times will be an under-estimate, sometimes an over-estimate. It all evens out.

But with 90% of people using FP+ and FP return times being fully booked for the early morning hours (as opposed to the old system where FP returnees didn't really start to arrive before 10:30, and even then, in dribs and drabs), what used to look like a 10 minute wait can really be a 30 minute wait. CMs haven't adjusted to this yet. So Mad Hattered's hilarious response is actually more true than we realize. A very short (in length) line at 10:15 might look to a CM as being a 10 minute wait based on his/her years of experience. "Hmm. A line that length is typically 10 minutes, so that is what I will set the sign at." But with FP+ returnees pouring in with fully booked slots from 9:00-11:00, instead of dribs and drabs of FP people cutting off the SB line at 10:15, you now have streams of people cutting off the SB line. A line with 100 people in it that looked like a 10 minute wait (because that is what it has always been) is now a 40 minute wait, and they figure that out when the person with the red card on the lanyard turns the card back in to the CM. But the CM sees 100 people and reflexively thinks the wait will be 10 minutes. This will change as everyone becomes more familiar with the system. In the end, this really is in the "testing" phase and until CMs re-boot their expectations as to what a 40 minute line looks like, there will be inaccuracies, mostly to the side of underestimating rather than overestimating. As the day goes on, estimates seem to be, as you suggest, both over and under-estimated. But we found pretty universally that between 9:30-11:00, the CMs didn't really have a clue as to how long the SB line was and their posted estimates were way low. Our "20 minute" posted wait for TT at 9:25 turned out to be 75 minutes. Kind of hard to miss by that much. But to the trained eye, the length of the line did look like a 20 minute wait.

 

[dwheaton]

It's interesting because in the past I've found that posted waits have been much longer than the actual wait in almost all cases. I've even had strange times when I wait 10 minutes and it said 60. I've always thought Disney added a buffer to make sure it wasn't longer. I'm guessing (hoping) they'll work out the kinks soon.

 

[2Tiggies]

Posted SB wait times are still in the "testing" phase.

+1

It's interesting because in the past I've found that posted waits have been much longer than the actual wait in almost all cases. I've even had strange times when I wait 10 minutes and it said 60. I've always thought Disney added a buffer to make sure it wasn't longer. I'm guessing (hoping) they'll work out the kinks soon.

Yes. This. Exactly

 

[redrosesix]

There is also the issue with FP having priority over SB. The posted SB wait may be 5 minutes when you enter, but then people arrive who have booked FP and they take priority. If they keep coming the SB line keeps waiting and the CM can't take the little red card yet.

Then they finally get a chance to let some SB guests in, take the little red card and post the time -- 75 minutes. By that time some SB guests have actually given up and left the queue. And people have stopped queuing in SB because it's ridiculous to wait 75 minutes for that stupid ride. So it isn't really 75 minutes.

But... what if no FP holders show up while you're in that queue? The SB line continues to pour into the ride with no hold ups at all. The 75 minute wait could in reality only be 10 minutes.

 

[Kellykins1218]

there is a good chance an animal decided to 'hang out' on the road and all of the safari vehicles had to wait until it moved. Been there done that both in the vehicle (we've had a white rhino in the road and a giraffe that wouldn't move) and in the line (we were up towards the front at that point so we could tell that the vehicles were no longer coming up / being loaded).

What is it with the rhinos and the giraffes? We've had the same thing happen on our last trip. We waited almost 15 minutes because of those darn rhinos. We were in a standoff and the rhinos won. We also had a giraffe decide to check us all out but that wait was more like 5-10 minutes.

 

[mcraige]

What is it with the rhinos and the giraffes? We've had the same thing happen on our last trip. We waited almost 15 minutes because of those darn rhinos. We were in a standoff and the rhinos won. We also had a giraffe decide to check us all out but that wait was more like 5-10 minutes.

We, too, have experienced the great-white Rhino Roadblock. After about 15 minutes, the driver radio'd someone, and a zoo keeper drove up in another truck to encourage the rhino to move.

 

[mom2rtk]

Posted SB wait times are still in the "testing" phase.

You know, on our last trip the line at Space Mountain took a lot longer than posted. I'm going to chalk that up to aliens on the track. Or was it an unexpected meteor shower?

 

[Good Morning Dewdrop]

You know, on our last trip the line at Space Mountain took a lot longer than posted. I'm going to chalk that up to aliens on the track. Or was it an unexpected meteor shower?

I think you're forgetting about the infamous snake in the lap episode....

 

[mom2rtk]

I think you're forgetting about the infamous snake in the lap episode....

OY. How could I have missed the chance at using that!

 

[2Tiggies]

I think you're forgetting about the infamous snake in the lap episode....

Oh but they don't actually stop the ride for a snake on your lap. They stop it for serious reasons only. Like aliens, perhaps