Official Hurricane JEANNE Part Deaux

[HumanCookie]

5 PM Bulletin - Sept. 22

WTNT31 KNHC 222044
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

...JEANNE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD...

INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST OR ABOUT 500
MILES... 810 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 69.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 967 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

5 PM Discussion

WTNT41 KNHC 222043
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

THIS AFETRNOON...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
JEANNE REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 967 MB...BUT AN 850 MB FLIGHT
-LEVEL WIND OF ONLY 95 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 76-KT SURFACE WIND...
WHERE A SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 78 KT WAS REPORTED IN THE SAME WESTERN
QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 85 KT
GIVEN THAT STRONGER WINDS COULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WOULD ALSO TYPICALLY SUPPORT ABOUT 104 KT SURFACE
WINDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB
AND SAB ALSO SUPPORT KEEPING THE INTENSITY HIGHER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 240/4. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...MAINLY AFTER 72 HOURS. ALL OF THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR WESTWARD SHIFT. THIS IS DUE TO
THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES FORECAST TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. IN FACT...SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE NOGAPS AND
THE GFDN ACTUALLY ELONGATE THE RIDGE MORE EAST-WEST THAN MOVING IT
EASTWARD. THE RESULT IS THAT JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72-96 HOURS...BEFORE IT RECURVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL
MOVES JEANNE INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...SIMILAR TO THE
TRACK OF FRANCES. WHILE THE NOGAPS SOLUTION IS A POSSIBILITY...THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON JEANNE REMAINING
OFFSHORE THE U.S. COAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MORE WESTERLY FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE
HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN 60-72 HOURS.

WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE AROUND 10 KT FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SURROUNDING THE
CYCLONE MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. BY 72
HOURS...THOUGH...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5
KT AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE...SO THERE COULD
BE SOME SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OCCUR AT THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS...
AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SHIPS DUE TO JEANNE POSSIBLY MOVING
DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SIMILAR TO WHAT ALEX DID EARLIER
THIS YEAR. HOWEVER...IF JEANNE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...THEN
IT WOULD BE OVER MUCH COOLER SHELF WATER OF 76-79F...AND THAT WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 26.1N 69.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 25.9N 69.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 25.9N 70.8W 90 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 26.1N 72.2W 90 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 26.5N 74.1W 95 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 28.0N 78.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 33.5N 78.0W 75 KT

 

[jfs9900]

We got rid of Ivan... now go away Jeanne!!!!!

Hopefully she will steer towards the right side of the track and not bother CC!!!!!!!!

Now we just have to look out for Lisa.... and HOPEFULLY that will be it until 10/9!!!!

 

[beachbumfamily]

been watching this for a few days now accu weather predicted last week that it would turn up somewhere on floridas east coast what with tropical force winds spreading out 140 miles i am beginning to wonder if saturdays sailing might be out of another port and as i'm on it i am going to keep a close watch lets hope it just does something else

 

[Kalypso]

UGH!! SOOOOOOOO not happy about this I am on the 9/30 Wonder and we've already rescheduled once...CANNOT do it again

 

[CM_Mom]

jfs9900 - unfortunately Ivan hasn't quite gone away - see
Too Wierd - Ivan Reborn

YIKES -

 

[MarkRG]

Don't go panicing yet. All the maps still look like it's going to go north long before it could hit any shoreline in Florida or the Islands. I won't totally rule out a coastal hit on the east coast, but if the patterns keep up it'll turn more easterly and miss entirely.

All the absolute horror aside, the weather patterns by themselves have been fascinating. Horrible, but like I have not seen before.

 

[mamalle]

I'm sorry but its not looking good for the weekend if you are in the bahamas. looking like a cat 2 and heading westword. Im not sure how much more we can take here in south fla. Our local news is saying that NOAA should be making it more westword come 5am.

 

[CM_Mom]

MarkRG and HumanCookie

From one hurricane addict to another, check out Golden Triangle Weather Page
It has lots of interesting graphs and charts for all the current hurricanes. It hasn't added Ivan back yet but has a composite chart that shows all the storms at once.

Although I'm saddened by all the devastation, I must agree that this has been one of the most interesting weather seasons I've seen.

I'm praying that Jeanne, Ivan, Lisa, Karl and nay future storms stay in the Atlantic and leave the folks alone.

 

[mamalle]

yes our weatherman said the same thing on the 11pm news about this hurricane season. Ivan will now hit TX and Jeane somewhere on the fla east coast. who would of thought? karl & lisa hopefully will head on up north. Im done with this season.

 

[allears]

I'm hangin on your words MarkRg. It looked like we'd be in the clear to get to the ship for the 9/25 sailing, now we're doing the nail biting thing. But we're going to try hard to keep positive, it is way too soon to know what may happen.

We fly out Friday afternoon, but we have family coming in on Saturday. Hopefully all will be well. Time for a healthy dose of pixie dust!

 

[MarcyIn Florida]

Originally posted by MarkRG
Don't go panicing yet. All the maps still look like it's going to go north long before it could hit any shoreline in Florida or the Islands.

From your keyboard to someone's ears, please.

All 3 central Florida weathermen on the major networks are predicting that it will hit the Bahamas at about 8 pm on Saturday, and hit off the coast of NE Florida on Sunday night. I'm not sure how DCL will react to this for the 9/25 cruise, but I must admit to severe nausea right now!

 

[sap1227]

Originally posted by MarcyIn Florida
From your keyboard to someone's ears, please.

All 3 central Florida weathermen on the major networks are predicting that it will hit the Bahamas at about 8 pm on Saturday, and hit off the coast of NE Florida on Sunday night. I'm not sure how DCL will react to this for the 9/25 cruise, but I must admit to severe nausea right now!

I am feeling that same sickness. Assuming we do get to sail on Sunday (I am going on the Wonder) I do not want to worry about my house being damaged by falling trees while I am gone!!

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT31 KNHC 230836
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HR.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER
TODAY.

INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND ON THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES... 765 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


5 AM Discussion

WTNT41 KNHC 230847
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOW THAT CLOUD
TOPS HAVE COOLED AROUND THE EYE OF JEANNE...BUT THAT THE EYE HAS
BECOME MORE CLOUD FILLED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90
KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT.
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND
FAIR TO POOR ELSEWHERE.

POST-ECLIPSE IMAGES SHOW THAT JEANNE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE SINCE
0315Z...PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE WESTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 260/3. A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES IS MOVING EASTWARD OR BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND
LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HR. THIS
SHOULD MOVE JEANNE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH
ACCELERATION. AFTER 72 HR...JEANNE BECOMES LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
THE ANTICYCLONE...WHICH BEGINS TO ELONGATE NORTH-SOUTH. THIS WOULD
ALLOW A NORTHWARD TURN AND EVENTUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE TURN OCCUR.
THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET FORECAST THE TURN TO OCCUR AFTER JEANNE
HAS HIT SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE GFS...GFDL... AND CANADIAN
FORECAST AN EARLIER TURN...WHICH WOULD BRING JEANNE NEAR OR OVER
EAST CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS
SEEMS TO BE THE FORWARD SPEED...WITH THE FASTER UKMET AND NOGAPS
REACHING SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE A
SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION AND DO NOT BRING JEANNE AS FAR WEST BEFORE
THE TURN. WHILE THE NOGAPS SOLUTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE
UKMET HAS JEANNE AT 70.8W AT 1200Z THIS MORNING AND THUS APPEARS
TOO FAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND NOW CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. IT IS
ALONG THE LINE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A LITTLE SLOWER.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 27C...LIKELY BROUGHT ABOUT BY
UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE. SINCE JEANNE
REMAINS SLOW MOVING...THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION MAY BE TEMPORARY. ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS LIKELY WHILE JEANNE REMAINS EAST OF 72W. THE WATERS ARE ABOUT
28C WEST OF 72W...AND WHEN JEANNE REACHES THEM IT SHOULD BE IN A
RATHER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. THUS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS STILL
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST JEANNE MUCH ABOVE 95-100 KT...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW 95 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS.
HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE TO SEE JEANNE REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 48-72 HR. AFTER 72 HR...LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

GIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 25.5N 69.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 25.4N 70.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 25.4N 72.1W 90 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 25.6N 74.0W 90 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 26.0N 75.9W 95 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 29.5N 81.5W 85 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/0600Z 34.0N 80.0W 75 KT...INLAND

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT31 KNHC 231141
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

...JEANNE CURRENTLY MEANDERING...EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HR.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER
TODAY.

INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND ON THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES... 765 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

JEANNE HAS BEEN DRIFTING ERRATICALLY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WESTWARD MOTION AT
ABOUT 6 MPH LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...25.6 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING ERRATICALLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[CM_Mom]

I DO NOT like this hurricane. WAY to UNPREDICTABLE.

WEAKEN Jeanne WEAKEN

 

[MarkRG]

Golden Triangle is one of the sites maps I've been using CM Mom.

I'd love to know where they are getting this prediction from. I'll try to explain this a bit.

First, Here's a upper level winds map. This is one of the biggest factors in the direction of travel for the hurricane. Note those wind movement arrows on the far bottom right and what direction. They are moving east/southeast.

There are two High pressure systems on the map that are doing all the steering right now. One is in that circle on the northeast coast. It's moving north, so its ability to pull Jeanne in that direction is weakening.

The other is in the extreme bottom right of the following map, and it's the one pulling Jeanne that way right now.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

I am HOPING this is a case of the NHC relying too heavy on models that have been doing poorly.

But just in case, I stopped for yet more water and batteries this morning.

 

[allears]

Mark, bottom line for those of us who are clueless, what did all of that mean. What's your best guess about Jeanne.

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT31 KNHC 231446
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

...JEANNE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HR.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER
TODAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 465
MILES... 745 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND
GENEREAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...25.6 N... 69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

11 AM Bulletin - Sept. 23

WTNT41 KNHC 231459
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED
CLOUD-FREE EYE WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE. THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS A CONSENSUS T5.5...OR 102 KT...FROM
ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. HOWEVER...DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME
A LITTLE MORE RAGGED. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING
INCREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/4. JEANNE IS
SURROUNDED BY HIGH PRESSURE EVERYWHERE BUT THE SOUTH...SO THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEFINITIVE MOVEMENT THE PAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
PRESSURES TO THE WEST OF JEANNE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS IVAN
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW WESTWARD
MOTION TO BEGIN SHORTLY. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WHILE BUILDING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE JEANNE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS NUDGED WESTWARD OUT OF
RESPECT FOR THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS...WHICH WERE FIRST TWO
MODELS AND THE MOST CONSISTENT ONES TO INDICATE A WESTWARD MOTION
TOWARD FLORIDA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL TRICKY. OCEAN CONDITIONS NEAR JEANNE
ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.
HOWEVER...BY 24-48 HOURS...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AND JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER NEAR THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO
OCCUR. BY 72 HOURS...JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL...INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BRING ABOUT SOME SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING...BUT THIS IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL RIGHT NOW.

GIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 25.6N 69.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 25.6N 70.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 25.6N 72.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 25.7N 74.6W 100 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 76.8W 100 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 27.3N 80.2W 95 KT...NR FLORIDA EAST COAST
96HR VT 27/1200Z 30.5N 81.5W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/1200Z 35.0N 78.5W 45 KT...INLAND

 

[beachbumfamily]

thank you human cookie looks from all the weather forecasts here in florida it could be close to our coast anytime between saturday evening and sunday morning maybe cat 3