Obsessively Watching DVC Broker Sites

[WinterSolider]

But the ROFR plays into market price just the same which, truth be told, is Disney's legal way of manipulating the market to protect their interests.

A cash buyer might be willing to pay way over market value for a home which doesn't need an appraisal from a bank or lender, which shows up eventually as sales history.

Price floors create artificial surplus. Obviously it's LEGAL, I never said otherwise. The problem is that Disney (as the buyer) doesn't actively go out and buy contracts.

If Disney wants a contract for $80 and I'm willing to sell it for $80, THAT would be price equilibrium. But in order for that transaction to occur, some random third party person has to come in and offer me $80 to trigger the ROFR process. But because that person knows that Disney will take the contract out from under them, they have no reason to make the offer even if they would otherwise be happy with the $80 price too.

 

[gmi3804]

Price floors create artificial surplus. Obviously it's LEGAL, I never said otherwise. The problem is that Disney (as the buyer) doesn't actively go out and buy contracts.

If Disney wants a contract for $80 and I'm willing to sell it for $80, THAT would be price equilibrium. But in order for that transaction to occur, some random third party person has to come in and offer me $80 to trigger the ROFR process. But because that person knows that Disney will take the contract out from under them, they have no reason to make the offer even if they would otherwise be happy with the $80 price too.

View attachment 859744

What's your point?

 

[WinterSolider]

What's your point?

You're very rude, huh?

You were mocking @Disney.dad for not wanting to "face the realities of the market" and I was pointing out that DVC resale is not an efficient market that you would expect to stabilize around price equilibrium.

 

[Disney.dad]

You're very rude, huh?

You were mocking @Disney.dad for not wanting to "face the realities of the market" and I was pointing out that DVC resale is not an efficient market that you would expect to stabilize around price equilibrium.

Realties of the market are if you buy a contract priced right with 2023 points intact or even 2022 points that have been banked you can catch a better value many times by renting out points. We have successfully bought Poly at 110, Riviera at 103, A max loaded Aulani at 90 with double 2023 points and a Sept Grand Flo for 155 with full 2023 points intact that we are delayed closing (due to seller) on but points were banked for us. Only the Grand Floridian is still waiting to close. We have seen multiple contracts in other use years that were more loaded at Grand Floridian that are much better buys but the deals were not on the matching use years. There are normally about 10% of the contracts at a time I consider priced right and being patient has worked out well for us in the past. There also seems to be a large variation in pricing between brokerage firms, some better to sell with it seems and others better to buy from. Just reality or the market.

 

[gmi3804]

Realties of the market are if you buy a contract priced right with 2023 points intact or even 2022 points that have been banked you can catch a better value many times by renting out points. We have successfully bought Poly at 110, Riviera at 103, A max loaded Aulani at 90 with double 2023 points and a Sept Grand Flo for 155 with full 2023 points intact that we are delayed closing (due to seller) on but points were banked for us. Only the Grand Floridian is still waiting to close. We have seen multiple contracts in other use years that were more loaded at Grand Floridian that are much better buys but the deals were not on the matching use years. There are normally about 10% of the contracts at a time I consider priced right and being patient has worked out well for us in the past. There also seems to be a large variation in pricing between brokerage firms, some better to sell with it seems and others better to buy from. Just reality or the market.

Precisely. The elephant in the room is the dues you’ll pay over the lifetime of the contract will far exceed initial capital layout, and far too few buyers seem to take this into consideration.

 

[Disney.dad]

Precisely. The elephant in the room is the dues you’ll pay over the lifetime of the contract will far exceed initial capital layout, and far too few buyers seem to take this into consideration.

The other reality is the opportunity cost of capital that most do not take into account as well as the fact that the 17 year remaining properties are pretty much going to straight line down in value and be substantially lower in 10-15 years while properties like Polynesian, and Grand Floridian with their longer contract terms are likely going up be worth the same or more in 10-15 years if you bought them correctly. That delta change in value is a large cost to add with the opportunity cost plus dues to get an overall picture. Other considerations are the points chart, availability at 11 and 7 months, rental value and the value of those extra 2023 points or future equivalent as time goes on that you can use or rent out to bring down your next investment opportunity cost. A loaded contract many times is better than a stripped contract unless you can buy a Feb Polynesian in the 110-112 range with 2025 points intact lime some of us did. I did mess up there and not buy a 2nd one, lol.

 

[stat]

Price floors create artificial surplus. Obviously it's LEGAL, I never said otherwise. The problem is that Disney (as the buyer) doesn't actively go out and buy contracts.

If Disney wants a contract for $80 and I'm willing to sell it for $80, THAT would be price equilibrium. But in order for that transaction to occur, some random third party person has to come in and offer me $80 to trigger the ROFR process. But because that person knows that Disney will take the contract out from under them, they have no reason to make the offer even if they would otherwise be happy with the $80 price too.

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I agree with the theory laid out (fellow economics major?), but as to a person "knowing that Disney will take the contract" I'd add that we never know for sure. In reality this is probabilistic in nature and people "test the ROFR monster" all the time. I'd happy submit a contract priced in the danger zone in the chance that Disney won't take it. If they do, only time itself and the time value of the deposit is lost. That uncertainty complicates the modeling but I suspect creates better market prices than if there were a hard floor. Of course, no ROFR at all would be best for a true market!

 

[gmi3804]

A loaded contract many times is better than a stripped contract unless you can buy a Feb Polynesian in the 110-112 range with 2025 points intact lime some of us did. I did mess up there and not buy a 2nd one, lol.

Don't beat yourself up. Hindsight is always 20/20.

 

[jolynne28]

Yes it was the fixed weeks 51 and 52! They will almost always be Christmas and New Years weeks. We felt like with the guarantee for those weeks we would always have value either for use, points, or resale. I'm pretty excited. They are August use year (We will NEVER end up there in June-August because my family cannot tolerate the heat so it's kind of perfect).

Do any of the aggregators pick up fixed week listings, or are you finding these on specific broker sites?

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Do any of the aggregators pick up fixed week listings, or are you finding these on specific broker sites?

They are gone now.

 

[JulieBeeRN]

www.dvcforless.com a free website that consolidates 11 broker listings in one site. It has lots of was to filter your selections.

Totally me not bookmarking that website........

 

[atthebeachclub]

I’m also closely watching dvcforless.com at least until my contracts close. I’m getting more skeptical they will go through by the day so have to keep my eyes peeled!

 

[Blerghityblergh]

Realties of the market are if you buy a contract priced right with 2023 points intact or even 2022 points that have been banked you can catch a better value many times by renting out points. We have successfully bought Poly at 110, Riviera at 103, A max loaded Aulani at 90 with double 2023 points and a Sept Grand Flo for 155 with full 2023 points intact that we are delayed closing (due to seller) on but points were banked for us. Only the Grand Floridian is still waiting to close. We have seen multiple contracts in other use years that were more loaded at Grand Floridian that are much better buys but the deals were not on the matching use years. There are normally about 10% of the contracts at a time I consider priced right and being patient has worked out well for us in the past. There also seems to be a large variation in pricing between brokerage firms, some better to sell with it seems and others better to buy from. Just reality or the market.

I think the other challenge is there isn’t true price transparency in this market. You see what it’s listed for, but it’s not easy/user friendly to sift through the county website to sort out exactly what the average and median price paid (not listed) has been. The best tools I’ve found are the ROFR thread here, some occasional data from one of the broker sites, and the amazing user Tom1944 who sometimes shares the data he painstakingly collects. But it’s tough to know whether the contracts that disappeared did so at full price or 20% below.

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

Do any of the aggregators pick up fixed week listings, or are you finding these on specific broker sites?

Yes - they do. When they are there, they are usually coded as 'Guaranteed Weeks' - this is how I found my FW in Jan. I have seen others since then (I have also seen a few on the aggregator site that weren't labeled as such...) I started drilling down into oddly numbered contracts!

 

[kgou]

Also Feb UY and so many tempting contracts this week in the resorts I'm interested in!

We're Feb UY as well. You grab first so I don't have to resist temptation.

 

[jolynne28]

Yes - they do. When they are there, they are usually coded as 'Guaranteed Weeks' - this is how I found my FW in Jan. I have seen others since then (I have also seen a few on the aggregator site that weren't labeled as such...) I started drilling down into oddly numbered contracts!

Ahh the weird points, I should have thought of that! Thanks! I’ve been wondering how people were occasionally finding one.

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

Ahh the weird points, I should have thought of that! Thanks! I’ve been wondering how people were occasionally finding one.

Adds an extra layer to the obsession

 

[jolynne28]

Adds an extra layer to the obsession

definitely not telling the husband about this the second we get the kids to bed

 

[Disney.dad]

I think the other challenge is there isn’t true price transparency in this market. You see what it’s listed for, but it’s not easy/user friendly to sift through the county website to sort out exactly what the average and median price paid (not listed) has been. The best tools I’ve found are the ROFR thread here, some occasional data from one of the broker sites, and the amazing user Tom1944 who sometimes shares the data he painstakingly collects. But it’s tough to know whether the contracts that disappeared did so at full price or 20% below.

It really depends on the broker and the contract. You can learn which ones are going to go full price immediately and not mess around on. I missed a couple of great deals offering say $5.00 less and another offer coming in at the same time for full price. Sometimes I think you can go full price but get the seller to pay 2024 maintenance fees if you are lucky but the good ones disappear within hours or minutes of hitting the aggregator site or may never even hit the aggregator. The ones like Old Key West and Saratoga with lots of supply you have a lot better chance snagging with a 15 or 20% under listing fishing expedition. The virtue otherwise is being willing to stalk daily for a couple of months and pounce when a good deal strikes. The ROFR page is definitely helpful as well to know what ranges things that are the more savvy buyers have been buying in.

 

[ShaneDJ]

Do any of the aggregators pick up fixed week listings, or are you finding these on specific broker sites?

Fixed week resale contracts are like unicorns, and they usually go quickly.

Fixed week Aulani-subsidized: I cannot ever find one...but I know they are out there!
You know who you are! LOL!