November 2022 Direct sales.

[tom1944]

That may be true at some point, but that hasn't yet been the case.

As someone shopping resale I would say it has. You can buy Riviera resale at a much lower price than the other equivalent resorts

 

[BeachClub2014]

As someone shopping resale I would say it has. You can buy Riviera resale at a much lower price than the other equivalent resorts

This data point would argue otherwise: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-november-2022/

 

[Nabas]

This. And there are plenty of other TS products out there with this same play.... and people cannot give them away....

The typical Timeshare does not go to a value of $0 because the original company intentionally takes steps to decrease its value.

In this case, we are seeing DVD intentionally take steps to decrease the value of its product once on the resale market.

I understand why they do this for Membership Extras which come out of the DVD budget. Why should DVD pay for something for an owner who did not buy from them?

But being able to exchange between DVC resorts benefits everyone.

Let’s say in 20 years, 20% of RIV owners bought on the resale market. This means that for someone buying direct today at VGF, it’s going to be that much harder to exchange into RIV. Long term, people who bought direct from Disney are going to be hurt by this.

 

[tom1944]

This data point would argue otherwise: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-november-2022/

Well I like data but it seems to me Riviera is cheaper than Poly, Grand Floridian and Copper Creek which are what I consider equivalent resorts based on expiration date and original direct price

I am seeing listings for 140 compared to 160 and above for the others on the resale market

I am having trouble reading the chart on my phone but it looks like the average was 140 and the others were 10% or greater higher.

It’s a newer resort with a longer life time why is it less expensive

 

[BeachClub2014]

The typical Timeshare does not go to a value of $0 because the original company intentionally takes steps to decrease its value.

In this case, we are seeing DVD intentionally take steps to decrease the value of its product once on the resale market.

I understand why they do this for Membership Extras which come out of the DVD budget. Why should DVD pay for something for an owner who did not buy from them?

But being able to exchange between DVC resorts benefits everyone.

Let’s say in 20 years, 20% of RIV owners bought on the resale market. This means that for someone buying direct today at VGF, it’s going to be that much harder to exchange into RIV. Long term, people who bought direct from Disney are going to be hurt by this.

Not sure what time horizon you are referencing here, but I see it differently. Those who buy points directly from DVC have completely unrestricted points that can be used at any resort. Those who buy restricted resale points (all now) can only be used at specific resorts. At some point, and we aren't there yet, owning restricted points will make it more of a challenge to get a room. Especially at the 7-month window. For instance, if you own resale points and Riviera, and don't make a reservation within your priority window, you could easily be shut out of a room, especially studios, at different times of the year.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Well I like data but it seems to me Riviera is cheaper than Poly, Grand Floridian and Copper Creek which are what I consider equivalent resorts based on expiration date and original direct price

I am seeing listings for 140 compared to 160 and above for the others on the resale market

I am having trouble reading the chart on my phone but it looks like the average was 140 and the others were 10% or greater higher.

It’s a newer resort with a longer life time why is it less expensive

Well, that's certainly one way to look at it.

 

[havoc315]

Not sure what time horizon you are referencing here, but I see it differently. Those who buy points directly from DVC have completely unrestricted points that can be used at any resort. Those who buy restricted resale points (all now) can only be used at specific resorts. At some point, and we aren't there yet, owning restricted points will make it more of a challenge to get a room. Especially at the 7-month window. For instance, if you own resale points and Riviera, and don't make a reservation within your priority window, you could easily be shut out of a room, especially studios, at different times of the year.

Actually —- there should be more availability at 7 months than the legacy resorts, as re-sale owners can’t trade in.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Actually —- there should be more availability at 7 months than the legacy resorts, as re-sale owners can’t trade in.

Unless other folks who bought directly reserve rooms at the 7-month mark, then the restricted folks are competing against a much larger pool. Again, at the 7-month mark. If they book within the home resort priority window, it shouldn't be an issue.

 

[havoc315]

Well I like data but it seems to me Riviera is cheaper than Poly, Grand Floridian and Copper Creek which are what I consider equivalent resorts based on expiration date and original direct price

I am seeing listings for 140 compared to 160 and above for the others on the resale market

Because of direct pricing and ROFR.

A $140 contract wouldn’t pass ROFR at Poly, but Riv doesn’t get ROFRed.

Direct price at Poly is around $250 now. Direct price at RIV is in the $190 neighborhood with incentives.

So $160 represents a 36% discount for Poly.
$140 is only a 26% discount for RIV.

I am having trouble reading the chart on my phone but it looks like the average was 140 and the others were 10% or greater higher.

It’s a newer resort with a longer life time why is it less expensive

 

[tom1944]

Well, that's certainly one way to look at it.

I may need time but I can’t think of any other way to look at it

 

[tom1944]

Because of direct pricing and ROFR.

A $140 contract wouldn’t pass ROFR at Poly, but Riv doesn’t get ROFRed.

Direct price at Poly is around $250 now. Direct price at RIV is in the $190 neighborhood with incentives.

So $160 represents a 36% discount for Poly.
$140 is only a 26% discount for RIV.

But isn’t all of that because the restriction lowers the value?

I was not aware Poly direct was so much more expensive so I have to rethink my concern about the current cost.

Long term I still would have concerns that the restrictions would be an issue

What does the lack of ROFR indicate? Disney does not want them back?

 

[BeachClub2014]

I may need time but I can’t think of any other way to look at it

I get it. There are many different ways people look at relative cost and value. Whatever works best for you and your family is the way to go. Good luck!

 

[Nabas]

Not sure what time horizon you are referencing here, but I see it differently. Those who buy points directly from DVC have completely unrestricted points that can be used at any resort. Those who buy restricted resale points (all now) can only be used at specific resorts. At some point, and we aren't there yet, owning restricted points will make it more of a challenge to get a room. Especially at the 7-month window. For instance, if you own resale points and Riviera, and don't make a reservation within your priority window, you could easily be shut out of a room, especially studios, at different times of the year.

Let’s say you bought today direct from Disney at VGF.

Currently, the number of resale owners at RIV is small, meaning you have a decent chance of being able to book at 7 months at RIV.

However, over time, the number of resale owners at RIV will only increase. Those resale owners will ONLY be able to book at RIV. They won’t (for example) to be able to book at VGF, VB, SSR, AKV, etc.

The only reason the 7- month booking window works is because some owners use their points for something else, most commonly a stay at a different DVC resort.

But if a large percentage of RIV owners can ONLY use their points at RIV, then that’s going to make it more difficult for you and I, as non-RIV owners, to book RIV at 7 months.

Even if we bought directly from Disney, we are hurt by the resale restrictions at RIV.

 

[BeachClub2014]

But isn’t all of that because the restriction lowers the value?

This snippet of the chart shows that in November, RIV was selling at a 35% discount to direct prices, which is performing better than some resorts, or not as good as others. Point being, there is little evidence to suggest that the restrictions are dragging down resale prices.

Riviera Resort

$140

$217

$77

35%

 

[BeachClub2014]

The only reason the 7- month booking window works is because some owners use their points for something else, most commonly a stay at a different DVC resort.

But if a large percentage of RIV owners can ONLY use their points at RIV, that’s going to make it more difficult for you and I, as non-RIV owners, to book RIV at 7 months.

This is already the case at many resorts at different times of the year. Try getting into BCV or BWV during Food & Wine.

 

[hglenn]

Actually —- there should be more availability at 7 months than the legacy resorts, as re-sale owners can’t trade in.

I don't know..... If I buy RIV resale, I'm making reservations at 11 months. No questions. And, if I don't want the reservation, I'm renting it. If people think that the rental market is ridiculous now, wait until the market is further saturated with restricted resale points.

 

[Nabas]

This is already the case at many resorts at different times of the year. Try getting into BCV or BWV during Food & Wine.

You’re talking 2 resorts during a specific time of year, with the appeal being able to walk to and from Epcot during Food and Wine Festival.

BCV has 3.0 million points, one of the smaller DVC resorts. RIV has 6.7 million points, close to OKW or AKV. Long term, RIV should be about as easy to book as one of the larger DVC resorts.

However, because of resale restrictions, you and I are going to find it increasingly more difficult to book RIV at any time of the year.

 

[Nabas]

This snippet of the chart shows that in November, RIV was selling at a 35% discount to direct prices, which is performing better than some resorts, or not as good as others. Point being, there is little evidence to suggest that the restrictions are dragging down resale prices.

Riviera Resort

$140

$217

$77

35%

I agree, and I find this informative since many thought the reason for the resale restrictions was to make the direct product more appealing.

If this strategy is not working, then why continue it?

 

[tjkraz]

Let’s say in 20 years, 20% of RIV owners bought on the resale market. This means that for someone buying direct today at VGF, it’s going to be that much harder to exchange into RIV. Long term, people who bought direct from Disney are going to be hurt by this.

Two comments on this:

1) Resorts don't resell at nearly that pace. Over the last 22 months, 0.74% of SSR points changed hands via resale. For BLT it's 0.71%. For AKV it's 0.93% (Three resorts chosen at random.)

2) Anecdotally, many owners book their home resort at 11 months anyway. And surely people who buy a restricted resale do it because they have great affection for the resort. I don't think it's realistic to suggest that someone who buys a restricted resale would act completely different if not for the restrictions.

EDIT: One more point to add to my list...

Yes, your hypothetical VGF direct buyer could find some lesser amount of RIV availability due to the restrictions. But the offset is the RIV resale owner is unable to use his/her points to book OTHER destinations, thus increasing that pool of availability. If your RIV resale owner cannot use his/her points to book BCV, BLT, Poly and others, 7 month availability in those locations will increase for owners who can access.

 

[havoc315]

But isn’t all of that because the restriction lowers the value?

I was not aware Poly direct was so much more expensive so I have to rethink my concern about the current cost.

Long term I still would have concerns that the restrictions would be an issue

What does the lack of ROFR indicate? Disney does not want them back?

Impossible to say how much restrictions affect the price. Likely contributes somewhat, but also not likely to be the main reason.

Disney does not ROFR resorts in active sales -- Meaning Disney essentially unofficially sets a floor for sold-out resorts like Poly. For Riviera and Aulani, for example, as they are in active sales, Disney does not ROFR them.

The whole point of ROFR is for Disney to take back points so they can sell them direct. Since they have 3 million Riviera points yet to sell, they don't need to take them back.

Thus far, the concerns about the re-sale and restrictions have been unfounded. Riviera has been re-selling at about expected prices, relative to direct cost. And direct sales of Riviera have been even stronger than direct sales of Grand Floridian.