November 2022 Direct sales.

[Sandisw]

RIV has had somewhat consistent sales numbers since the end of COVID lockdowns, hovering around 75,000 points per month.

It's VGF that has been all over the map.

View attachment 724069

And the chart certainly does support that what VGF has been selling for the last 4 months is way out of whack with what other resorts, including the first go around for VGF, have sold in the early days.

 

[pianomanzano]

And the chart certainly does support that what VGF has been selling for the last 4 months is way out of whack with what other resorts, including the first go around for VGF, have sold in the early days.

I don't think VGF2 has been "out of whack". Those high initial numbers for VGF2 in the first couple months of sales were mainly current member add-ons, probably from members who buying VGF the first time around or never-RIV members wanted more direct points that wouldn't have resale restrictions and hold better resale value. For instance in April DVC news reported that only a third of the points sold (45k) were new member contracts. After they all stopped buying it normalized around the lower 50k monthly rate.

 

[Nabas]

I don't think VGF2 has been "out of whack". Those high initial numbers for VGF2 in the first couple months of sales were mainly current member add-ons, probably from members who buying VGF the first time around or never-RIV members wanted more direct points that wouldn't have resale restrictions and hold better resale value. For instance in April DVC news reported that only a third of the points sold (45k) were new member contracts. After they all stopped buying it normalized around the lower 50k monthly rate.

From my graph, it’s apparent that RIV direct sales never rebounded to pre-COVID levels. There’s a few possible reasons for this.

Direct price hikes are having an adverse impact on sales.

Inflation is a affecting sales. It’s one thing to drop $5K on a vacation after not vacationing at all for 2 years. It’s a very different thing to drop over $30K on a timeshare when inflation is taking a big bite out of family income.

The DVC market is becoming saturated. There now are over 5500 DVC rooms at WDW.

RIV is not as appealing as earlier DVC resorts. I don’t put much weight on this. VGF and RIV both sold well pre Covid. VGF sales in particular have tanked in recent months.

 

[havoc315]

From my graph, it’s apparent that RIV direct sales never rebounded to pre-COVID levels. There’s a few possible reasons for this.

Direct price hikes are having an adverse impact on sales.

Inflation is a affecting sales. It’s one thing to drop $5K on a vacation after not vacationing at all for 2 years. It’s a very different to drop over $30K on a timeshare when inflation is taking a big bite out of family income.

The DVC market is becoming saturated. There now are over 5500 DVC rooms at WDW.

RIV is not as appealing as earlier DVC resorts. I don’t put much weight on this. VGF and RIV both sold well pre Covid. VGF sales in particular have tanked in recent months.

You're missing the most obvious reason: The natural pattern of sales, with the extra curve ball of Covid. Under a normal pattern (look even at the first VFG offering), sales will start to slide as time goes on past the initial surge. For the last 6 months, Riviera has competed with a "newer" offering in VGF2.
But because of Covid, instead of a gradual reduction in sales volume, sales dropped off the cliff. And remember, Disney attendance -- which impacts sales -- remained significantly reduced through the end of 2021.
I'd say the current Riviera volume is basically normal, for a resort that has been on sale for over 3 years. Thing is, the middle 2 years of sales were greatly impacted by Covid.

I dare say RIV would have sold another 1-2 million points by now if Covid hadn't happened. Instead of being only 50% sold, it would be 65-80% sold.

 

[Sandisw]

I don't think VGF2 has been "out of whack". Those high initial numbers for VGF2 in the first couple months of sales were mainly current member add-ons, probably from members who buying VGF the first time around or never-RIV members wanted more direct points that wouldn't have resale restrictions and hold better resale value. For instance in April DVC news reported that only a third of the points sold (45k) were new member contracts. After they all stopped buying it normalized around the lower 50k monthly rate.

Based on that chart that shows sales, since 2013, no other resort has ever seen months where sales were averaging in the 40ks.

What we are seeing for VGF now is certainly out of whack based on the history of sales for the past 9 years. It is simply performing much differently than what typically has occurred for other resorts

 

[Nabas]

You're missing the most obvious reason: The natural pattern of sales, with the extra curve ball of Covid. Under a normal pattern (look even at the first VFG offering), sales will start to slide as time goes on past the initial surge. For the last 6 months, Riviera has competed with a "newer" offering in VGF2.
But because of Covid, instead of a gradual reduction in sales volume, sales dropped off the cliff. And remember, Disney attendance -- which impacts sales -- remained significantly reduced through the end of 2021.
I'd say the current Riviera volume is basically normal, for a resort that has been on sale for over 3 years. Thing is, the middle 2 years of sales were greatly impacted by Covid.

I dare say RIV would have sold another 1-2 million points by now if Covid hadn't happened. Instead of being only 50% sold, it would be 65-80% sold.

Looking at total direct sales, the trend was modestly upward until COVID, collapsed after that, spiked to an all-time high when VGF2 was offered, and has been trending downwards ever since.

 

[Brian Noble]

Part of that downward trend is cyclical, and happens every Fall.

 

[havoc315]

Looking at total direct sales, the trend was modestly upward until COVID, collapsed after that, spiked to an all-time high when VGF2 was offered, and has been trending downwards ever since.

View attachment 724084

Exactly my point --- From March 2020 to early 2022, there was arguably a loss of an average of 50,000-100,000 points per month. Let's say that due to the pandemic, there were 75,000 point sales lost per month, for 18 months -- that's 1,350,000 points that were never sold, due to the pandemic. Riviera would have been the only WDW resort with open direct sales during that time -- Assume Riviera would have been 65% of those sales -- That's about 900,000 points that Riviera would have sold, if not for the pandemic..

So instead of selling 3.4 million points to date, Riviera would have sold 4.3 million points to date -- Riviera would be 65% sold today, pretty good for a massive 6.7 million point resort. Arguably, as the shutdown occurred right as Riviera was still brand new and entering its first spring peak season, even more sales were lost.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Wasn't VGF cheaper than RIV for almost half the month?

I think it's already been mentioned but a lot depends on how quickly the county is recording sales. The other thing I cannot emphasis enough is it's so dependent on what the guides present. If VGF and Riviera as an aside then it will have higher sales and vice versa.

 

[Jwaire]

Part of that downward trend is cyclical, and happens every Fall.

Exacerbated by the growing fear of a recession.

I've said this before, but the verdict is in Riviera. It's just an easier sale. It's beautiful, new and well kept. It appears family friendly. When you go to tour, you always see kids playing games in the courtyard, swimming or using the splash pad. And don't underestimate the Skyliner which is a lifesaver for anyone that has ever had to deal with a stroller.

You don't get this at Grand Floridian.

 

[DVCPAT]

Exacerbated by the growing fear of a recession.

I've said this before, but the jury is out on Riviera. It's just an easier sale. It's beautiful, new and well kept. It appears family friendly. When you go to tour, you always see kids playing games in the courtyard, swimming or using the splash pad. And don't underestimate the Skyliner which is a lifesaver for anyone that has ever had to deal with a stroller.

You don't get this at Grand Floridian.

Riviera also has an abundance of employees waiting to serve guests. While eating lunch, I noticed multiple employees waiting with spray bottles in hand to clean tables. As soon as a table was free, it was cleaned quickly. Reminded me of service that put Disney on the map. I don’t see Disney continuing this level of service once Riviera sells out.

 

[jppeek]

I think for new members the extra years is a big thing also. 6 years more with Riviera if you don’t plan on selling is going to sound appealing if you really don’t have a big preference.

 

[SLThomas318]

Riviera also has an abundance of employees waiting to serve guests. While eating lunch, I noticed multiple employees waiting with spray bottles in hand to clean tables. As soon as a table was free, it was cleaned quickly. Reminded me of service that put Disney on the map. I don’t see Disney continuing this level of service once Riviera sells out.

Yes… we noticed this when we went for breakfast over Thanksgiving…

 

[Brian Noble]

the jury is out on Riviera

Maybe the verdict is in, but folks here don’t want to believe it because “restrictions are bad.”

 

[sndral]

Exacerbated by the growing fear of a recession.

I've said this before, but the jury is out on Riviera. It's just an easier sale. It's beautiful, new and well kept. It appears family friendly. When you go to tour, you always see kids playing games in the courtyard, swimming or using the splash pad. And don't underestimate the Skyliner which is a lifesaver for anyone that has ever had to deal with a stroller.

You don't get this at Grand Floridian.

The jury is out means they haven’t decided yet - they are still deliberating, I think you are trying to say the jury is in - eg has reached a verdict in favor of Riviera. While it could be that potential DVC buyers saw kids playing at Riviera & decided those kids were having more fun than the kids they saw playing at the GF (I just got back from 2 weeks at the GF & saw kids playing in both pools & the splash pad every single day) or that folding up their stroller to board the bus from Riviera to MK was ok because they could leave it unfolded to take the Skyliner to 2 parks v. leaving it unfolded to monorail to 2 parks (including the MK) from the GF, I think not. I’m going w/ Riviera sold more points because it was cheaper & had the potential for ‘double’ points v. the other on property resort in active sales.
I predict that in 5 years Riviera, VGF2, & Poly2 will all be sold out & we’ll know which resort more experienced buyers prefer by looking at resale prices, meanwhile we’ll be arguing about the relative merits of 2 of these possibilities - Reflections, the revised vision v. Epcot’s Entrance resort & spa v. Boardwalk2, the Hollywood studios tower annex w/ canal front villas v. BLT2, the converted rooms inside the Contemporary .

 

[EYL]

And, if you can’t sell something, it’s a clue it’s overpriced…which is why DVD needed to increase the incentives to be better than RIV.

Except they didn't exactly increase the incentives of VGF2 to be better than RIV. They lowered RIV's incentives (this round) to be competitive with VGF2. I would have increased the incentives of VGF2 so that the lower pp cost would be similar to RIV. For a 150 pt add-on, RIV only offers a $7 incentive right now when previously it was $12-$18. If DVC truly believe that VGF2 was overpriced, then they would increase the incentives to $20 (or something meaningful). Right now, RIV is $210 for 150pts vs $208 for VGF2. They must think they can sell it at any price, or they are just experimenting.

A price increase plus worst incentives in this economy... I wonder if they will go for a fire sale later in the year.

 

[DVCsloth]

Pretty shortsighted converting BPK hotel rooms. Should have focused on upgrading the Hotel side and left VGF all by itself. Without a doubt, IMO one of the best DVC resorts. Especially since Poly tower is coming. At the very least, they should have lowered the point chart for the resort studios, having them the same as the original building is a mistake and they even added a higher TPV category to it.
One suggestion from me would be to lower the point chart a couple points from the Deluxe Studios if there is a way to do it.

 

[Sandisw]

Except they didn't exactly increase the incentives of VGF2 to be better than RIV. They lowered RIV's incentives (this round) to be competitive with VGF2. I would have increased the incentives of VGF2 so that the lower pp cost would be similar to RIV. For a 150 pt add-on, RIV only offers a $7 incentive right now when previously it was $12-$18. If DVC truly believe that VGF2 was overpriced, then they would increase the incentives to $20 (or something meaningful). Right now, RIV is $210 for 150pts vs $208 for VGF2. They must think they can sell it at any price, or they are just experimenting.

A price increase plus worst incentives in this economy... I wonder if they will go for a fire sale later in the year.

VGF in September was $14/pt off for 200 points. It’s now $19/pt for same level.

RIV was $33/pt for 200 in September, and went down to $16/pt.

So they lowered RIV and raised VGF so VGF is now less expensive. No matter how you frame it, 4 months of sales ranging from 38k to 44k is not good.

In my book, if they are giving better incentives, it indicates it couldn’t sell for what they were asking.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Why buy VGF when you can wait for new-build Poly.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Plus, DVC pricing overall is too high. Yep.