Not sure $149 Disney After Hrs event is doing well... (ETA: reviews in 1st post)

[Kimberly9701]

Sorry, don't mean to keep replying, I should have put this in my previous comment!

Anyway, they have had other upcharges that flopped and they have either canceled them or changed them in some way. Did they do the analytics on those? Perhaps but at some point, management makes a decision, yes or no. And there wasn't a lot of risk with this event.

And of course no business can ever 100% predict how something is going to sell, they can only make a forecast. How much analysis is done beforehand, who knows. And how much of that analysis senior executives listen to is another story LOL

Oh totally you can do as much research as you want.. Doesn't guarantee success.
But the only way to know if DAH is a complete failure is IF they cancel later dates.

 

[mom2rtk]

And that is the exact point. Exact!
That is not happening here.

I know you meant this to go against the price justification, but your scenario actually strengthens it!

You lost me there.

 

[Mikie]

I know I'm repeating myself, but I really think those late night hours are going away, if they aren't already gone. While I think it's unfortunate, given what I've heard about those hours, it makes sense because they just aren't used very much. They don't seem to be an enticement -- they are more of a benefit -- and they are far and beyond what most other theme parks offer. So I think we're headed toward a 10 pm closing, period, and then EMH and DAH guests being the ones who stay until 1 am. DAH make no sense at all if you're keeping the park open until midnight or 1 on a regular basis. But I also don't see the benefit of staying open that late (from a WDW standpoint) if the park ends up sparsely attended during those hours -- you're incurring cost to benefit a very small number of guests without revenue attached. But if people are paying and planning to stay late, you might entice more of them out of the park during the day, and that would be a benefit because it reduced crowds during the day while maintaining the same overall traffic numbers.

I don't disagree that if it were to happen, Disney would be taking away something that had been a previous staple of park attendance, and the general consensus is that anytime that happens, it sucks. But at least you'd know in advance the hours for your ticket and could plan accordingly instead of waiting for the decision to be made.

It's the other part of your post I couldn't answer fast enough earlier!
I think that discussion of late park hours is sort of circular: Late hours aren't attended enough to justify including them with regular tickets; We can offer late hours for a price of $149 and people will gobble them up because it's hot and crowded in the summer; Disney would take the late regular hours away regardless of DAH being offered or not.

Either the hours are a desirable commodity that people will use/are using or they're not a desirable commodity, in which case why would someone pay $149 for them? I don't think states can coexist.
Part of this is predicated on these assumptions:
- that summer months where Disney had MK open until 11, 12, 1 every single day did not have FEW attendees. They extended hours in the summer because people used them.
- I believe the really quiet late hours that people talk about were the late EMH, when regular hours were till midnight and EMH til 2 or 3. where that last hour was golden with drastically lower crowds
I don't travel in summer, so these assumptions (based on my interpretation of DIS discussions) could be wrong.

 

[Kimberly9701]

I like this! It would be similar to what some people do at Universal to get the free Express pass. I could see us getting a room at the Allstars just to get the EMH if we wanted it.

But then you are spending more than just doing DAH. And you are taking time out of your vacation by moving.
Some people may be willing to do that.
I definitely wouldn't take precious time out of my vacation to switch hotels.
Again, the whole idea is to replace a day at MK. Not add to it. And it frees up an entire day to do other things.

If you are staying offsite bc you are doing other Orlando attractions besides Disney, that's just one scenario where it makes sense to purchase DAH.
Maybe you're visiting friends in Orlando.
Maybe you're staying onsite for 4 nights or less. Etc etc etc.

If DAH isn't attractive then just go during normal hours. And if willing switch for EMH.

Again-- different types of travelers and all..

 

[mom2rtk]

But then you are spending more than just doing DAH. And you are taking time out of your vacation by moving.
Some people may be willing to do that.
I definitely wouldn't take precious time out of my vacation to switch hotels.
Again, the whole idea is to replace a day at MK. Not add to it. And it frees up an entire day to do other things.

If you are staying offsite bc you are doing other Orlando attractions besides Disney, that's just one scenario where it makes sense to purchase DAH.
Maybe you're visiting friends in Orlando.
Maybe you're staying onsite for 4 nights or less. Etc etc etc.

If DAH isn't attractive then just go during normal hours. And if willing switch for EMH.

Again-- different types of travelers and all..

Is an All Stars room more than $150 now?

Not that it matters because that argument only holds if only 1 person was doing DAH. A value room sleeps 4, allowing EMH admission for 4 people. DAH would be $600 for 4 people.

And you wouldn't actually have to change hotels. It would be a throwaway room.

 

[Slapshot1188]

And how many items do you end up buying, that you weren't planning on, when you head to BB&B with your coupon? Lol

Apparently not enough as the company is in financial trouble and is trying to ween people off the coupon idea. If what you inferred was in fact happening then the company would be expanding the concept. The opposite is what is happening.


Again though, for THIS specific Disney Up-charge Event... we will know in a few weeks if it was a flop or a success. If they announce new dates with no changes, obviously Disney thinks its a success. If they do not announce other dates and/or they do but with dramatic changes to price or content, then we know Disney thought it was a flop.

That will settle this discussion.

 

[bryanb]

I agree with you for the most part, except Econ 101 analysis is supply and demand and what price will the market sustain. The market can't sustain that price; it's too high. Disney is clearly ok with this in the short term, but our suppositions beyond that are more MBA analysis than Econ 101 to figure out WHY Disney is ok with this in the short term.

I'd say it is market segmenting and price discrimination. Their goal should be to extract maximum consumer surplus as possible from each segment, and the only way to do that is to offer targeted offerings. $149 is much too high if you define "the market" as most WDW visitors and you could pick only one price point along the demand curve. But if we believe that there are many market segments including some with an unusually high willingness to pay, then Disney should try new experiences to maximize many points along that demand curve. This is still Econ 101, but the chapter after the single equilibrium point.

As a guest, I find this $149 price outrageous and not worth it. But also have been to Disney Parks so often that the marginal benefit of this event to me is extremely low. (If I had only one chance to visit Disney in my whole life and I know it, I'd be on a very different place on the demand curve).

As a business person, I absolutely think they should keep trying things like this, continue to refine this event and prove out the concept. As a shareholder, these are exactly the tests that the company should be taking. If it doesn't work, that's okay. Managers should be take risks and to try new things and failure is fine as long as there are learnings.

 

[Planogirl]

But then you are spending more than just doing DAH. And you are taking time out of your vacation by moving.
Some people may be willing to do that.
I definitely wouldn't take precious time out of my vacation to switch hotels.
Again, the whole idea is to replace a day at MK. Not add to it. And it frees up an entire day to do other things.

If you are staying offsite bc you are doing other Orlando attractions besides Disney, that's just one scenario where it makes sense to purchase DAH.
Maybe you're visiting friends in Orlando.
Maybe you're staying onsite for 4 nights or less. Etc etc etc.

If DAH isn't attractive then just go during normal hours. And if willing switch for EMH.

Again-- different types of travelers and all..

You wouldn't switch hotels at all. You would check in of course but you wouldn't have to stay in the room and since you're on property to visit the parks anyway you can easily check out before going to the next day's park. Or you can sleep one night with just the bare minimum stuff and then stash it in your car the next morning.

You definitely wouldn't be spending more. One night's charge for a budget resort doesn't come anywhere close to the price of the DAH. Of course I'm talking about people who already have regular passes.

 

[Angel Ariel]

And how many items do you end up buying, that you weren't planning on, when you head to BB&B with your coupon? Lol

quite a few...it's like Target that way

 

[Kimberly9701]

You lost me there.

Just because you feel something is worth less than what the market shows it to be doesn't mean that it is in fact worth less.

So far there has been nothing showing why DAH should be less than $149. Until it is then it will remain that price.

It wasn't a house sitting on the market with no offers at the sellers price point.
It's not an item that you can reasonably expect to get for less just because you feel it's worth less.

What you feel you should get and what it actually is are 2 very different things. Now if all people feel the same? Then it will be cancelled before the rest even take place.

 

[Angel Ariel]

But the only way to know if DAH is a complete failure is IF they cancel later dates.

I disagree with this. I think disney will run the events already scheduled no matter what. If they consider it a failure, we just won't see the event extended or brought back again. It will just go away quietly like the pirate and princess parties did.

 

[Mikie]

So there has been some talk that this event might be targeted to off site guests, but here is what this off site family would do. If we wanted to experience MK after hours, we would just rent an onsite room on the day that EMHs is offered. We could experience EMHs for 2 days and have free parking for 2 days! We could even get a tent campground site and get the benefit for 10 people and parking for at least 2 cars for 2 days. Sure we would lose 1 hour and we would have to buy our own Mickey bars but I think the savings of a $75 campground and 4 free parking fees (2 cars for 2 days) over 10 x $149 and parking of 2 cars for 2 days makes it easier to give up that 1 hour and the free ice cream and drinks.

I like this! It would be similar to what some people do at Universal to get the free Express pass. I could see us getting a room at the Allstars just to get the EMH if we wanted it.

Very interesting! Unintended consequence, or yet another possible intended purpose of these nights?? Some people have said that the Uni express pass is $149.99 and it's a common practice on these boards for people to stay on site for the specific purpose of getting express pass free. Perhaps another purpose of DAH is to drive more on-site stays? You could PAY for DAH (and some people will, as some will pay outright for express at Uni) OR you could do at least a couple nights on-site at WDW to entitle you to the free EMH on your stay mornings and nights. . .

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

So, after 63 pages, let me ask this: Don't you think this would fly off the shelves in July and August? When the days are hot and the crowds are the biggest?

It would for my family -- that's what I've been saying as well.

Actually market value is what the market is willing to pay for something. All of the evidence points to the fact that they weren't able to sell all of the tickets at the price they set.

Too early to conclude bold. Need more data. And probably some actual MARKETING beyond free tix to create word of mouth. If the market doesn't know about it, you've failed the marketing test... perhaps not the value test.

 

[Kimberly9701]

quite a few...it's like Target that way

Yeah Target gets me every time!!!

You wouldn't switch hotels at all. You would check in of course but you wouldn't have to stay in the room and since you're on property to visit the parks anyway you can easily check out before going to the next day's park. Or you can sleep one night with just the bare minimum stuff and then stash it in your car the next morning.

You definitely wouldn't be spending more. One night's charge for a budget resort doesn't come anywhere close to the price of the DAH. Of course I'm talking about people who already have regular passes.

Ok, makes sense if you aren't replacing a day with the DAH ticket.
In my case I'm looking at if I had less than 5 days Disney tickets. Then the price to replace 1 with DAH is less than an onsite resort.

 

[Mikie]

Apparently not enough as the company is in financial trouble and is trying to ween people off the coupon idea. If what you inferred was in fact happening then the company would be expanding the concept. The opposite is what is happening.


Again though, for THIS specific Disney Up-charge Event... we will know in a few weeks if it was a flop or a success. If they announce new dates with no changes, obviously Disney thinks its a success. If they do not announce other dates and/or they do but with dramatic changes to price or content, then we know Disney thought it was a flop.

That will settle this discussion.

And where would be the fun in that?!

 

[mom2rtk]

Just because you feel something is worth less than what the market shows it to be doesn't mean that it is in fact worth less.

So far there has been nothing showing why DAH should be less than $149. Until it is then it will remain that price.

It wasn't a house sitting on the market with no offers at the sellers price point.
It's not an item that you can reasonably expect to get for less just because you feel it's worth less.

What you feel you should get and what it actually is are 2 very different things. Now if all people feel the same? Then it will be cancelled before the rest even take place.

You're missing the point in this "cost" versus "value" discussion.

The "cost" can be whatever anyone wants to ask for something (Check ebay and you will see items listed for a wide range of prices, both reasonable and crazy).

The "value" is what the market is truly willing to pay (Check ebay, but this time only look at completed items. Those listings show the prices people actually paid).

 

[Angel Ariel]

- I believe the really quiet late hours that people talk about were the late EMH, when regular hours were till midnight and EMH til 2 or 3. where that last hour was golden with drastically lower crowds

I would agree with this. our honeymoon trip was a summer trip and MK was well attended durijg regular park hours, even back then when overall attendance was lower than now. That 2am-3am hour in EMH was absolutely empty though.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

You're missing the point in this "cost" versus "value" discussion.

The "cost" can be whatever anyone wants to ask for something (Check ebay and you will see items listed for a wide range of prices, both reasonable and crazy).

The "value" is what the market is truly willing to pay (Check ebay, but this time only look at completed items. Those listings show the prices people actually paid).

I'd say yes and no. Value is subjective to any individual. Market price is the sum of all of that subjectivity, I suppose -- but you need large enough numbers to determine that. And enough time. Don't think we've had that here yet.

 

[Planogirl]

Very interesting! Unintended consequence, or yet another possible intended purpose of these nights?? Some people have said that the Uni express pass is $149.99 and it's a common practice on these boards for people to stay on site for the specific purpose of getting express pass free. Perhaps another purpose of DAH is to drive more on-site stays? You could PAY for DAH (and some people will, as some will pay outright for express at Uni) OR you could do at least a couple nights on-site at WDW to entitle you to the free EMH on your stay mornings and nights. . .

In fairness, the Express is very rarely that much. However it's a nice extra and you also get the early admission not to mention the nice proximity to the parks if you sleep there one night.

I actually could see the throwaway room at Disney as more useful if some of the conjecture comes to pass. I would go ahead and stay at mine just to keep it simple though. I could only see us needing one night for the evening EMH at MK.

 

[Kimberly9701]

You're missing the point in this "cost" versus "value" discussion.

The "cost" can be whatever anyone wants to ask for something (Check ebay and you will see items listed for a wide range of prices, both reasonable and crazy).

The "value" is what the market is truly willing to pay (Check ebay, but this time only look at completed items. Those listings show the prices people actually paid).

Exactly.

So far we do not know if majority of people did not actually pay to attend.