Disney overestimated how many people would actually pony up to this event. The last thing they want is to have folks publicly discussing what a flop it was....I think Disney wants that happy spot....you know the magical feeling of "walk on" attractions but still enough people to make it seem like you were not the only loser to pay big bucks to play.
But isn't the solution here an easy one? Just find a new price point? Start selling tickets at $69 and give $80 refunds to the people who already bought? Disney does nothing to quell the undercurrent that this is a "flop" by giving away tickets for free. To the contrary. That move reeks of failure, whereas a re-pricing strategy acknowledges an error in judgment, but not failure.
Year and Years ago we used to take the kids to Riverside Park. There was a span of time when it was like a ghost town. You could walk on all the rides. Sound like a blast? No. There is something sad about a park that should be bustling with people practically empty.
There is definitely something to this. I was at WDW one year, many years ago, (1988 or 1989, best as I can recall) and my brothers and I were in Epcot the day after Memorial Day. It was an absolute ghost town. There was no "buzz". No excitement. Dare I say, it was almost boring. Personally, I think that 3,000-5,000 people in the MK would be very much the same. As I said earlier, I think they could take this up to 7,500-10,000 easily and still provide the "walk on" (or almost "walk on") environment that everyone craves. Those numbers are between 75% and 83% lower than the MK has on a typical day.
My thought - if they still limit attendance to the number that they were willing to admit based on sales, no harm done to those who paid and a perk given to DVC members. No one is harmed in this, and everyone on this board has been asking for perks for repeat visitors. So I don't have a problem with it.
This does not change the long term viability of this party. It will have to make Disney money to continue. But Disney is clearly willing to lose a little money up front to help this party gain traction and determine its future a little further down the road.
I don't see a down side for anyone. Let's just see how it plays out.
As mentioned earlier, one of the big concerns here is Disney's failure to publish what the attendance will be. I will agree with you that anyone who paid $149 for a night in the park knowing that the maximum attendance would be 5,000 people has little to complain about if their family of four was the only one to buy tickets and Disney filled out the roster with 4,996 freebies. In the end, they got into a park as four of 5,000 people, exactly as expected. But this changes when Disney refuses to clue us in on what the attendance will actually be. On some level, certain people who paid $149 for this event did so with the belief that the price was
so high that they would have the park almost literally to themselves. They were paying for a private party in the MK knowing that perhaps only a few hundred other people would follow suit. (As noted above, personally I don't put much value in this. I think being alone in the park would be rather dull. But let's assume that there are people who ponied up the cash who think otherwise.) But after they pay their non-refundable fee, Disney decides to stuff the park, (and I use that term loosely), with free riders. All of a sudden, the people who thought that they were going to have the park to themselves now have to share it with more people than they would like. Let's look at an analogy. You and your family pay $600 per person for a VIP Guided Tour of the MK with FOTL access to all rides. Disney does not tell you that the tour will be just your family, but you certainly have a strong belief that it will be. But on the day of your tour, you find out that in addition to your family, Disney has given free passes to 40 other people who will be on the VIP Tour with you. Are you "harmed" by this? Is there a downside for anyone under this scenario? Sure. Your FOTL access has all of a sudden turned into..."there are now 40 people in front of me in the line" access. Your private conversations and question and answer sessions with your tour guide have turned into a cacophonous "follow the flag" group tour. You still get your tour. But you aren't getting what you thought you were getting. It's all a matter of expectations, and I think that at the $149 price point, people have a reasonable expectation that the number of attendees is going to be very, very, very small. Perhaps that expectation is unreasonable, but that doesn't make the expectation any less real.