News Round Up

[derekleigh]

From the outside looking in, I think Disney will feel congested in the next couple of years. Or at the least, MK and Epcot. With two parks (even if they are "half day" parks) undergoing major overhauls and changes, many guess will probably flock to the other two. Yes, attendance will probably keep steady but the space has been reduced.

But in the long-run, Disney is going to change those half-day parks into full day parks. However until those are complete the next few years will be interesting to see how guests adjust.

 

[rteetz]

Pools at AoA closing for refurbishment in November

http://www.wdwmagic.com/resorts/dis...ing-for-refurbishment-beginning-next-week.htm

 

[wallrock]

You are right on one hand that they are "replacing", but considering that the Backlot Tour, American Idol, and Jack Sparrow I have experienced each only once over the last 10 trips, and probably would never bother with again in the future, this "removal" doesn't affect my trips, while "replacement" would certainly do so.

No disagreement with the quality (or lack thereof) of the attractions that were closed. I would argue at this point that I really don't think Disney knows what they want to do with Hollywood Studios. Oh I'm sure they've got something on paper that they aren't sharing publically, but by replacing what's been removed they will be confined to the areas that have been vacated. If there's no concrete plan to overhaul the layout then it's going to be a nightmare to manage crowds there. An overhaul means a lot of money and I think they're pondering either 'go big and overhaul' or 'go mediocre and fill in the blank spots'. Probably the latter.

I think October has become more and more crowded over the years - with this being the greatest increase time of year. So, I think partly it's due to that. However, I think MyMagic has done two things - (1) more people are using the FP/FP+ system, (2) more rides are on the FP+ system. Because of this, a rides like Haunted Mansion and IaSM have longer lines, because people are choosing to ride them as a FP ride - so that makes standby longer. I noticed that it seemed like BTMRR and Jungle Cruise had SHORTER standby lines than they used to (because they had more FP riders) while others like HM were longer. It's a "spread the crowds out" effect, which is precisely what Disney wants.

My experience was to the contrary. I don't use Fast Pass so I'm in line with the standby crowd, but the numbers I saw going through the Fast Pass line in Epcot, Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios (didn't have much to gauge on in Animal Kingdom) was significantly smaller than those in the standby line. I know that Disney is looking for better crowd management, but I wouldn't say that I experienced a spreading out effect. Again just based on the time period I was there the number of non Fast Pass users was significantly larger than those that use it. That, or a lot of those guests were aware of Fast Pass and probably had one or two reserved, they just didn't know how to use it or change their selections (a different subject altogether).

The one thing I would point out though - if they DO announce an expansion at DHS - then that's TWO parks in which they are adding (significant) ride capacity, and they already did this at MK. Yes, I KNOW the argument that "they only added one net ride" but they added SIGNIFICANT park capacity between LM, 7DMT, Dueling Dumbos, Storytime with Belle, the Princess M&Gs, and BOG. Sure, whine all you want that some of those aren't rides - but that's not the argument it's park capacity - even a restaurant adds to park capacity.

There's nothing to indicate that the increase in Hollywood Studios is associated with rides. To you point about Fantasyland, the biggest increase in capacity there is walkway capacity. I'm not going to complain whether or not those additions were attractions in the truest sense, but if you add activites to increase your capacity capability by X, but allow in Y (Y meaning larger) additional guests (which, if park attendance is truly up in October, was probably done to fill the walkways, thereby funneling people to the gift shops when the attractions are filled for the next hour) then you haven't accomplished anything except longer wait times. That's what I'm seeing the difference is between 2013 and today. As I said earlier, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train had people camped out in front of it but there was nothing to indicate that shortened the lines anywhere else.

If you're going to increase park capacity then you'd better come up with a way to service that increase, and it shouldn't be just a dump into a gift shop.

 

[skier_pete]

My experience was to the contrary. I don't use Fast Pass so I'm in line with the standby crowd, but the numbers I saw going through the Fast Pass line in Epcot, Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios (didn't have much to gauge on in Animal Kingdom) was significantly smaller than those in the standby line.

I'm not sure how you really judge the numbers in the FP+ lines, since they usually keep them somewhat separated. It's my observation that Disney seems to allows FP+ to max out at about 50 % of the ride capacity.

If you take all the people that rode HM a year ago and said they had to wait on average 20 minutes each, and then you take half those people and give them a 5 minute wait instead, you are going to see the other half waiting twice as long for the same ride capacity.

We were at MK on Saturday October 18th. I thought the crowds were at a medium level - pretty crowded, but I've seen worse. Our FP+ for the day short-cutted 245 minutes of stand-by line. (70 minutes for 7DMT, 80 minutes Space Mountain, 45 minutes HM, 25 minutes BL, 25 minutes BMTRR).Though I have to admit we got a bonus FP because we broke down on Pirates, but we lost about 45 minutes of morning touring time on that ride. Even with the lines, we never waited more than 15 minutes for an attraction, and we managed to ride everything we wanted to, including all the E-tickets. So the parks may be more crowded, but using the FP+ system I think MK at least is still quite manageable.

There are some things I miss about the old FP system personally (being able to get 7-8 FP in a day particularly), but overall I think the improvements (slightly) outweigh the negatives and I like the utility of the MB - not having to dig out your tickets or FP. Of course, I'm a planner, so I have no problem planning my FPs out. Others might not feel the same way.

I agree 100% with what you say on DHS, though. I still don't have a real feel for what's going to actually happen. The rumors are all over the place. It could be anything from a complete overhaul (which it SHOULD be) to a few new rides thrown up. I hope they do it right - but I don't expect it.

 

[rteetz]

I'm not sure how you really judge the numbers in the FP+ lines, since they usually keep them somewhat separated. It's my observation that Disney seems to allows FP+ to max out at about 50 % of the ride capacity. If you take all the people that rode HM a year ago and said they had to wait on average 20 minutes each, and then you take half those people and give them a 5 minute wait instead, you are going to see the other half waiting twice as long for the same ride capacity. We were at MK on Saturday October 18th. I thought the crowds were at a medium level - pretty crowded, but I've seen worse. Our FP+ for the day short-cutted 245 minutes of stand-by line. (70 minutes for 7DMT, 80 minutes Space Mountain, 45 minutes HM, 25 minutes BL, 25 minutes BMTRR).Though I have to admit we got a bonus FP because we broke down on Pirates, but we lost about 45 minutes of morning touring time on that ride. Even with the lines, we never waited more than 15 minutes for an attraction, and we managed to ride everything we wanted to, including all the E-tickets. So the parks may be more crowded, but using the FP+ system I think MK at least is still quite manageable. There are some things I miss about the old FP system personally (being able to get 7-8 FP in a day particularly), but overall I think the improvements (slightly) outweigh the negatives and I like the utility of the MB - not having to dig out your tickets or FP. Of course, I'm a planner, so I have no problem planning my FPs out. Others might not feel the same way. I agree 100% with what you say on DHS, though. I still don't have a real feel for what's going to actually happen. The rumors are all over the place. It could be anything from a complete overhaul (which it SHOULD be) to a few new rides thrown up. I hope they do it right - but I don't expect it.

As for DHS I know there are many rumors circulating around but from what I've found from the strongest sources are
The backlot area is a Pixar place expansion which would just include new toy story and cars kiddie rides
A Star Wars expansion in echo lake area (that's all that's really been said)
Confirmed the Hat is leaving
Another strong rumor is a name change getting rid of the studio part of the name because of course it's not a studio
There are some other rumors regarding the rest of the park but nothing strong
Spirit says it's a DCA budget which would be over 1 billion dollars.

 

[skier_pete]

As for DHS I know there are many rumors circulating around but from what I've found from the strongest sources are
The backlot area is a Pixar place expansion which would just include new toy story and cars kiddie rides
A Star Wars expansion in echo lake area (that's all that's really been said)
Confirmed the Hat is leaving
Another strong rumor is a name change getting rid of the studio part of the name because of course it's not a studio
There are some other rumors regarding the rest of the park but nothing strong
Spirit says it's a DCA budget which would be over 1 billion dollars.

See - there's the problem...the strongest rumors say Pixar kiddie rides and some Star Wars stuff - but $1 billion plus seems to me more than that - unless its a really big Star Wars expansion. The "reliable" rumors even conflict themselves to a degree.

I am actually all for some Pixar kiddie rides (even though we no longer have little kiddies) but would hope that at least one more bigger ride there.

 

[rteetz]

See - there's the problem...the strongest rumors say Pixar kiddie rides and some Star Wars stuff - but $1 billion plus seems to me more than that - unless its a really big Star Wars expansion. The "reliable" rumors even conflict themselves to a degree. I am actually all for some Pixar kiddie rides (even though we no longer have little kiddies) but would hope that at least one more bigger ride there.

I completely agree I think that the rest of the 1 billion have to go to other various things around the park like maybe a new fireworks show or a fantasmic upgrade, a new entrance rumor has been tossed around as well.

 

[wallrock]

I'm not sure how you really judge the numbers in the FP+ lines, since they usually keep them somewhat separated. It's my observation that Disney seems to allows FP+ to max out at about 50 % of the ride capacity.

If you take all the people that rode HM a year ago and said they had to wait on average 20 minutes each, and then you take half those people and give them a 5 minute wait instead, you are going to see the other half waiting twice as long for the same ride capacity.

We were at MK on Saturday October 18th. I thought the crowds were at a medium level - pretty crowded, but I've seen worse. Our FP+ for the day short-cutted 245 minutes of stand-by line. (70 minutes for 7DMT, 80 minutes Space Mountain, 45 minutes HM, 25 minutes BL, 25 minutes BMTRR).Though I have to admit we got a bonus FP because we broke down on Pirates, but we lost about 45 minutes of morning touring time on that ride. Even with the lines, we never waited more than 15 minutes for an attraction, and we managed to ride everything we wanted to, including all the E-tickets. So the parks may be more crowded, but using the FP+ system I think MK at least is still quite manageable.

There are some things I miss about the old FP system personally (being able to get 7-8 FP in a day particularly), but overall I think the improvements (slightly) outweigh the negatives and I like the utility of the MB - not having to dig out your tickets or FP. Of course, I'm a planner, so I have no problem planning my FPs out. Others might not feel the same way.

I agree 100% with what you say on DHS, though. I still don't have a real feel for what's going to actually happen. The rumors are all over the place. It could be anything from a complete overhaul (which it SHOULD be) to a few new rides thrown up. I hope they do it right - but I don't expect it.

Very true that each line (standby vs FastPass) is separate, but the one that came to mind during while I wrote my comments was Spaceship Earth. Since that queue is more or less outside and you can 'see' pretty much the whole thing I'd wager that for every 10 people that went into the standby line I 'saw' maybe 1 or 2 going into FastPass. Granted there could have been more but I just didn't see them. A side note to this is that even Spaceship Earth had a fifteen minute wait for standby. Yes, fifteen minutes isn't really something to complain about, but during past Halloween trips that was a walk on. Again that could be the larger crowds.

 

[wallrock]

I completely agree I think that the rest of the 1 billion have to go to other various things around the park like maybe a new fireworks show or a fantasmic upgrade, a new entrance rumor has been tossed around as well.

My problem with Hollywood Studios is that it was never designed as a true theme park. Taking a glace at the other three they more or less follow the 'hub, spoke and wheel' layout concept. With Hollywood Studios it's more of an odd 'Y' shape with the base being the entrance and one arm going back to the backlot tour and the other going to Tower of Terror - that's one way in and one way out of both areas. I'd hate to fathom the crowded mess that would develop if the backlot tour/Lights Motor Action area was converted into a high profile Star Wars area. Imagine the congestion of thousands going in and thousands going out of that area just through Streets of America. Unless they cut through something like Highland Avenue and dump out into Sunet Blvd to allow another access point that's going to be a nightmare. If they go that route I'm betting that's where the majority of the money is going to be spent. That, or leave the floorplan as it is and insert sub-par activities.

 

[clsteve]

Now 2014 arrives and the Halloween visit is marked with delays. Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, while new and sought after by guests, had wait times in the 70-plus time frame most of the times we walked by. That massive line didn't really take the itch off of other wait times. The Haunted Mansion wait time never dropped below 30 minutes, it's a small world was between 20 and 35 minutes several times (something I haven't seen in years), Buzz Lightyear at 40 minutes. There was even a wrapping line of sorts to get on the People Mover.

I think October has become more and more crowded over the years - with this being the greatest increase time of year. So, I think partly it's due to that. However, I think MyMagic has done two things - (1) more people are using the FP/FP+ system, (2) more rides are on the FP+ system. Because of this, a rides like Haunted Mansion and IaSM have longer lines, because people are choosing to ride them as a FP ride - so that makes standby longer.

Or 3): more people are riding because they're in-Park longer

FP+ was always the end to the means - get people out of line (to spend more) and keep guests in-Park longer by spreading out the suggested times Disney offers.

Go figure, not everybody's going to go shop while waiting for their 8pm 7DMT FP time to come up. A lot of them are going to get in an SB line for another ride.

My experience was to the contrary. I don't use Fast Pass so I'm in line with the standby crowd, but the numbers I saw going through the Fast Pass line in Epcot, Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios (didn't have much to gauge on in Animal Kingdom) was significantly smaller than those in the standby line. I know that Disney is looking for better crowd management, but I wouldn't say that I experienced a spreading out effect.

Conversely, the average guest - especially first timers - really aren't geared towards keeping to a detailed schedule. Especially as overwhelming as WDW is, just from size and layout when you've never been before.

I mean, how are you going to make that Buzz FP+ ressie time when you've just figured out how to unfold the map.....?

So, their no-show percentages must be way over what FP- numbers were.

So that's the interesting thing here, it looks like they've inadvertently increased demand for SB ride capacity by overestimating the avg person's ability to manage a sched (and/or the overall FP+ usage to complete the assigned sched).

So, both of you could be seeing much of the same thing: The Plan, which looked great in the models, maybe is being compromised by human nature.

 

[wallrock]

Or 3):Conversely, the average guest - especially first timers - really aren't geared towards keeping to a detailed schedule. Especially as overwhelming as WDW is, just from size and layout when you've never been before.

I mean, how are you going to make that Buzz FP+ ressie time when you've just figured out how to unfold the map.....?

So, their no-show percentages must be way over what FP- numbers were.

So that's the interesting thing here, it looks like they've inadvertently increased demand for SB ride capacity by overestimating the avg person's ability to manage a sched (and/or the overall FP+ usage to complete the assigned sched).

So, both of you could be seeing much of the same thing: The Plan, which looked great in the models, maybe is being compromised by human nature.

I made note of that in my comments as well. My last visit had me wondering how many actually made FastPass reservations and either didn't know how to change them or went through the motions without the intent of using one or more of the reservations they had?

That's been my reluctantance to get on board with the FastPass concept. If I make a reservation two months out who knows how I will feel when I get there? Will circumstances push me into a different schedule? And if so, do I want to bother with making those changes when I can just walk in and wing it? A slower process yes, but achieving the same end result.

 

[rteetz]

My problem with Hollywood Studios is that it was never designed as a true theme park. Taking a glace at the other three they more or less follow the 'hub, spoke and wheel' layout concept. With Hollywood Studios it's more of an odd 'Y' shape with the base being the entrance and one arm going back to the backlot tour and the other going to Tower of Terror - that's one way in and one way out of both areas. I'd hate to fathom the crowded mess that would develop if the backlot tour/Lights Motor Action area was converted into a high profile Star Wars area. Imagine the congestion of thousands going in and thousands going out of that area just through Streets of America. Unless they cut through something like Highland Avenue and dump out into Sunet Blvd to allow another access point that's going to be a nightmare. If they go that route I'm betting that's where the majority of the money is going to be spent. That, or leave the floorplan as it is and insert sub-par activities.

And there are also rumors they would reconfigure the layout with an entrance redo of course because of the problem you are talking about. Eisner rushed to get this park open before universal came to town he wanted a park to directly compete with them.

Backlot tour area has been said to not be where Star Wars would go, they would keep it in the echo lake area near star tours which makes the most sense. They have the closed american idol plus a theater next to it, the small lake can go, and indiana jones has been rumored to go for a while too.

Disney knows that ToT and RnRc and TSMM are the main rides people go there for so they aren't going to mess with those. That area with ToT and RnRc will go likely untouched unless beauty and the beast and fantasmic get some upgrades or changes. The backlot tour is a huge empty space that could be used for a lot of pixar related stuff and then echo lake becomes Star Wars land.

There are also a lot of rumors about the GMR changing, the facade changing, and it going goodbye altogether, that ride seems to have the most uncertainty at this point. I'm all in favor of changing it but not necessarily getting rid of it.

 

[rteetz]

I made note of that in my comments as well. My last visit had me wondering how many actually made FastPass reservations and either didn't know how to change them or went through the motions without the intent of using one or more of the reservations they had? That's been my reluctantance to get on board with the FastPass concept. If I make a reservation two months out who knows how I will feel when I get there? Will circumstances push me into a different schedule? And if so, do I want to bother with making those changes when I can just walk in and wing it? A slower process yes, but achieving the same end result.

I had my first go with FP+ in July and I liked it, our family was never big legacy FP users but we used all three FPs every day in July. Our biggest ones really were 7DMT, TSMM, RnRc, Anna and elsa and TT. We did have some waste full ones that weren't necessary like buzz and SSE even tho that is seeing longer waits since FP+. We also did ,and a lot of changes throughout our stay whether it be time or ride. We never took advantage of a fourth FP and didn't use one for a parade, fireworks etc.

 

[clsteve]

I made note of that in my comments as well. My last visit had me wondering how many actually made FastPass reservations and either didn't know how to change them or went through the motions without the intent of using one or more of the reservations they had?

That's been my reluctantance to get on board with the FastPass concept. If I make a reservation two months out who knows how I will feel when I get there? Will circumstances push me into a different schedule? And if so, do I want to bother with making those changes when I can just walk in and wing it? A slower process yes, but achieving the same end result.

I had my first go with FP+ in July and I liked it, our family was never big legacy FP users but we used all three FPs every day in July. Our biggest ones really were 7DMT, TSMM, RnRc, Anna and elsa and TT. We did have some waste full ones that weren't necessary like buzz and SSE even tho that is seeing longer waits since FP+. We also did ,and a lot of changes throughout our stay whether it be time or ride. We never took advantage of a fourth FP and didn't use one for a parade, fireworks etc.

And that's exactly why I think there's so much angst and arguments on these Boards and some scrambling on Disney's side, now that it's been in full production for about a year: For guests it's about the rides; for Disney it isn't

For Disney, As long as you pre-planned in advance, show up, you're in the Park they expected up to 60 days prior, at the times they expected, and for the length of time they expected, and it results in the expected per capita spend... they're good.

Funny thing is, if they had the necessary amount of ride capacity - especially high yield/high demand (with the correct queue configs) - this quite possibly could work quite well. No need for all the clunky workarounds like Tiers, for example.

Like they say in these parts- trying to fit a 4 pound chicken in a two pound can

 

[rteetz]

Interesting article on the head of walt Disney studios Mr. Alan Horn who came from Warner Brothers

Also hints at the previous head was ousted because john Lasseter and him didn't get along.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/10/b...-ship-at-disney-and-fortune-follows.html?_r=1

 

[rteetz]

Spirit says tonight that DLP (recently officially announced star tours 2) is going to get a Star Wars miniland with a restaurant store and a second attraction.

DHS and DL will both be getting star tours upgrades when the new movies are out.

 

[Redarrow5150]

Disney made a huge financial investment in buying Lucas films...over $4 billion and that's not including the new movies which are coming out. You can be pretty sure that Star Wars is going to get a major expansion and be huge aspect of the rebuild. Personally I believe the bulk of DHS early work is going to be for Star Wars with the new movie coming out in 2015/2016. If Universal can make a major attraction for HP than Star Wars will get something equal or greater.

The announcement of Toy Story 4 for 2016 also gives Disney enough time to expand the Pixar area. I think it's safe to say the two areas in DHS are going to be Star Wars and Pixar and the refurbs will coincide with those films release dates. Time is ticking but believe come after this holiday season, DHS will be under a lot of construction.

See - there's the problem...the strongest rumors say Pixar kiddie rides and some Star Wars stuff - but $1 billion plus seems to me more than that - unless its a really big Star Wars expansion. The "reliable" rumors even conflict themselves to a degree.

I am actually all for some Pixar kiddie rides (even though we no longer have little kiddies) but would hope that at least one more bigger ride there.

 

[rteetz]

Disney made a huge financial investment in buying Lucas films...over $4 billion and that's not including the new movies which are coming out. You can be pretty sure that Star Wars is going to get a major expansion and be huge aspect of the rebuild. Personally I believe the bulk of DHS early work is going to be for Star Wars with the new movie coming out in 2015/2016. If Universal can make a major attraction for HP than Star Wars will get something equal or greater. The announcement of Toy Story 4 for 2016 also gives Disney enough time to expand the Pixar area. I think it's safe to say the two areas in DHS are going to be Star Wars and Pixar and the refurbs will coincide with those films release dates. Time is ticking but believe come after this holiday season, DHS will be under a lot of construction.

I agree we will see movement after the holidays

 

[skier_pete]

That's been my reluctantance to get on board with the FastPass concept. If I make a reservation two months out who knows how I will feel when I get there? Will circumstances push me into a different schedule? And if so, do I want to bother with making those changes when I can just walk in and wing it? A slower process yes, but achieving the same end result.

Not to get into a FP+ debate, but one of the nice things about the FP+ system is the ease with which you can shift the less popular FP+ around. We had FP+ for Spaceship Earth one day, and we got there the line was only 5 minutes long. So I used the App, and switched it to a different FP. Another day (and I don't remember the exact circumstances) we missed one of our FP+ completely, but I was able to move it AFTER the fact to later in the day.

I don't get the argument of "why bother booking them". I think the opposite - book them, and if you don't use them, you are no worse off than if you didn't book them, but they're there if you want to use them.

We also find there are FPs we are not using, but overall I would bet the FP+ use for the popular (long wait) rides get used at a higher percentage than those for the less popular rides.

Disney made a huge financial investment in buying Lucas films...over $4 billion and that's not including the new movies which are coming out. You can be pretty sure that Star Wars is going to get a major expansion and be huge aspect of the rebuild. Personally I believe the bulk of DHS early work is going to be for Star Wars with the new movie coming out in 2015/2016. If Universal can make a major attraction for HP than Star Wars will get something equal or greater.

There's also a big difference between Avatar and Star Wars. The Avatar project was announced before there was even pencil put to paper. It took them 2 years to plan out the rides.

When they finally announce Star Wars land - the plans will already be in place, and they will take shovels to sand. I know first hand that WDI was working on Star Wars attraction designs at least 18 months ago. Not saying it will be done in a year, but I bet it will be much quicker than the 5-6 years that Pandora is taking.

 

[Redarrow5150]

Avatar is only one movie thus far. Star Wars has had 6 so plans would seem to be easier than the former. I'm not saying it will be 100% ready but do believe a good portion of it will be done...or at least hope it will.

There's also a big difference between Avatar and Star Wars. The Avatar project was announced before there was even pencil put to paper. It took them 2 years to plan out the rides.

When they finally announce Star Wars land - the plans will already be in place, and they will take shovels to sand. I know first hand that WDI was working on Star Wars attraction designs at least 18 months ago. Not saying it will be done in a year, but I bet it will be much quicker than the 5-6 years that Pandora is taking.