Newbie... thinking about Aulani!

[Ben E N]

To give some context too, my wife and I are both attorneys in high pressure Manhattan offices. We wouldn’t be using the 11 month window (ever) just because it’s not how our employers operate. Especially because I’m in litigation, I take vacations when we aren’t dealing with a big case. So because of that, we don’t care if we have a home resort in Orlando, to be candid.

Are you sure DVC is the right choice for you at all, then? What if you start to look at 6 months out and everything is already taken? Then you have annual dues that you are spending, and getting nothing in return.
DVC ownership is best for those who can commit well in advance. For someone like you, just paying the cash rate, or renting DVC points, may be a better option.

 

[jerseyduke]

Are you sure DVC is the right choice for you at all, then? What if you start to look at 6 months out and everything is already taken? Then you have annual dues that you are spending, and getting nothing in return.
DVC ownership is best for those who can commit well in advance. For someone like you, just paying the cash rate, or renting DVC points, may be a better option.

TOTALLY!

How far out in advance will you book?

And, what are the chances of having to cancel a trip, particularly within 31 days of its start?

 

[zavandor]

To give some context too, my wife and I are both attorneys in high pressure Manhattan offices. We wouldn’t be using the 11 month window (ever) just because it’s not how our employers operate. Especially because I’m in litigation, I take vacations when we aren’t dealing with a big case. So because of that, we don’t care if we have a home resort in Orlando, to be candid.

Sorry but if you cannot book at least 7 months in advance, do not buy DVC. You're going to be really frustrated in using your points on short notice and yes, 6,5 months is short notice.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I will also mention that the 1417 point contract OP is looking at is for a Guaranteed Week 52 GV, Ocean View.

If OP isn't regularly planning to travel to Aulani, that week, with a cast of many, it's a weird contract.

It is also stripped to 2020. No 2019 points. I think at $99 per point, stripped, it is wildly overpriced.

 

[sugliac]

I appreciate all of your advice!

 

[Ben E N]

I appreciate all of your advice! I will just say to some that certain comments are verging on disrespectful so please keep it strictly informative! Thanks, again.

Do you mind quoting these comments? From what I see, there were red flag warnings about what you are thinking of doing, but those are being made with your best interests in mind.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I don't think anyone is being disrespectful. You are looking at annual GV class points, but not wanting to book that home resort (or fixed week), and getting many GVs 6 months out (or less?) is dicey most of the year.

That particular contract is an especially odd duck, also.

 

[jlb727]

I don’t see anything disrespectful either. You admitted you are a newbie and a rookie. No shame in that. I’m pretty new here, myself. People are just trying to make sure you completely understand what you would be getting yourself into by purchasing that particular contract and pointing out there are other ways to go about what you want to do. Their advice and information was invaluable in making sure I made a good purchase.

Some of these folks know more than some CMs at DVC Member Services because they’ve been involved in this for years, decades even.

Good luck with your decision!

 

[chicagodisneyguy]

I'm a bond trader at the CBOT and trade for a living. DVC in a way is tradeable asset that is luckily pretty easy to value in most cases. The supply and demand dynamics of a 1400 point contract work in your favor....especially as it's a non WDW location. There just aren't that many people who can afford to drop north of $100k on a timeshare. Also, the pool of potential buyers gets smaller because it's not based at Disneyworld/Disneyland. Most DVC buyers want to have a guarantee they can secure a reservation at Disneyworld. Aulani doesn't do that.

Right now there's a few 500 point contracts offered @ $85. I think that's a good starting point. I saw in the last ROFR thread an Aulani contract went through for $73 and that was for <200 points i believe. If it was me, I'd offer $60. I know some will say that's way too low or insulting. But you never know the financial position of the seller. Someone bought the new DVC Riviera contract at $188 a few months ago and already sold it @ $100...and that was a 175 point contract and the resort isn't even open yet. 1400 points at Aulani is only getting bought by someone who has $100k sitting around collecting dust or a speculator/commercial renter. I also think the odds of someone coming in and swooping it up are low. It's not like a 50 point BWV contract where there's 20 bids an hour after posting. I think even if they say no to $60, there's little risk someone comes in and offers higher and you lose the contract because you waited. You can always up your bid. But if I was trying to unload a contract this size I would probably hit just about any bid i saw.

I would also suggest not using the broker who is listing it...not because they aren't good. I've actually heard good things about them. But this is a very unique size contract. I would be wary the broker would not act in your best interest. You are very green to DVC it seems and I think you need a professional who is working in your best interest.

Good luck and report back if you finalize a deal.

 

[sugliac]

I'm a bond trader at the CBOT and trade for a living. DVC in a way is tradeable asset that is luckily pretty easy to value in most cases. The supply and demand dynamics of a 1400 point contract work in your favor....especially as it's a non WDW location. There just aren't that many people who can afford to drop north of $100k on a timeshare. Also, the pool of potential buyers gets smaller because it's not based at Disneyworld/Disneyland. Most DVC buyers want to have a guarantee they can secure a reservation at Disneyworld. Aulani doesn't do that.

Right now there's a few 500 point contracts offered @ $85. I think that's a good starting point. I saw in the last ROFR thread an Aulani contract went through for $73 and that was for <200 points i believe. If it was me, I'd offer $60. I know some will say that's way too low or insulting. But you never know the financial position of the seller. Someone bought the new DVC Riviera contract at $188 a few months ago and already sold it @ $100...and that was a 175 point contract and the resort isn't even open yet. 1400 points at Aulani is only getting bought by someone who has $100k sitting around collecting dust or a speculator/commercial renter. I also think the odds of someone coming in and swooping it up are low. It's not like a 50 point BWV contract where there's 20 bids an hour after posting. I think even if they say no to $60, there's little risk someone comes in and offers higher and you lose the contract because you waited. You can always up your bid. But if I was trying to unload a contract this size I would probably hit just about any bid i saw.

I would also suggest not using the broker who is listing it...not because they aren't good. I've actually heard good things about them. But this is a very unique size contract. I would be wary the broker would not act in your best interest. You are very green to DVC it seems and I think you need a professional who is working in your best interest.

Good luck and report back if you finalize a deal.

Thanks!

 

[sugliac]

Looking over the comments, I think I have to agree with all the commenters who shut me down. There wasn’t anything disrespectful, I just read them the wrong way. Thanks for all of your help, again! I think looking now I’m not going to buy this contract, and instead am looking at a smaller Aulani + a VGF / BLT. Thanks

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Right now there's a few 500 point contracts offered @ $85. I think that's a good starting point. I saw in the last ROFR thread an Aulani contract went through for $73 and that was for <200 points i believe. If it was me, I'd offer $60. I know some will say that's way too low or insulting. But you never know the financial position of the seller.

Because it's a GW contract, we know that the owner most likely is first owner, and paid a premium for this contract. They are probably taking a bath at $99 but are overvaluing based on what they owe or another emotional valuation that is divorced from the true market value and overall buyer pool for this contract.

As you point out, there are 500 point contracts for $14pp less than this, and I am betting that some of these aren't stripped to boot.

 

[Randywatson79]

I haven't read every post, so apologies if this has been hashed out... Have you seen the 'predicted booking patterns' thread (it won't let me link directly to it, saying it's spam so search that string)? It might be a handy resource if you want to get an idea of what's generally available X months out.

Also have you considered splitting your points between two resorts? Aulani and maybe something WDW based? Unless you're absolutely certain you want Aulani to be your only home base for the next few decades, you may want to consider a mainland based resort for a variety of reasons. You could alternate which resort you travel to each year and bank at the other resort for the following year.

 

[jerseyduke]

I'm a bond trader at the CBOT and trade for a living. DVC in a way is tradeable asset that is luckily pretty easy to value in most cases. The supply and demand dynamics of a 1400 point contract work in your favor....especially as it's a non WDW location.
(snip)

very true. But then, if the OP goes to sell it, it works against him/her. - in which case it would basically become a wash. 99 a point is way more than a fair market price for this contract.

I see 2 downsides to a contract this large:

1. It becomes hard to sell, should you need to liquidate it on the quicker side.
2. If 1417 points is 'too many' they can not sell off 200 of them and downsize a little bit.

These are some of the valid things to consider and the OP can choose if these are concerns or not.

And the OP and wife do seem to have very demanding jobs. So the question about is DVC a good choice for them is also very salient, since it really requires booking well in advance, and the penalties for last minute cancellations is steep. Again, just points for the OP to consider and decide.

 

[chicagodisneyguy]

very true. But then, if the OP goes to sell it, it works against him/her. - in which case it would basically become a wash. 99 a point is way more than a fair market price for this contract.

I think $99 a point for Aulani is on the high range of fair in the current market. It's a small sample, but the ROFR thread entries that have passed in the last two quarters range from $73 to $95. I think $99/point for a 1400 point contract is WAY over priced from a market perspective. When a 135 point contract has traded as low as $73 I don't see how a 1400 point contract should ever trade near the high end of the range. Sure, if someone is looking to take their family to Aulani in a GV in week 52 it might be a good fit. Hopefully for whoever is selling it finds that buyer. I'm guess he/she might be waiting a while.

A contract like this makes the most financial sense if you can get it below market price so if you decide to sell you don't take a bath. If i wanted 1400 points I'd be comfortable bidding $60 on the large contract or closer to $85 on seven 200 point contracts. But I wouldn't get anywhere close to $85 on the 1400 point contract. But I am looking at it from a value perspective on what I can buy for and what I can theoretically sell for if I want out. If you buy DVC going in thinking you will hold until it expires that's a bit different. But in no situation would i ever pay the same for the two size contracts.

 

[sugliac]

very true. But then, if the OP goes to sell it, it works against him/her. - in which case it would basically become a wash. 99 a point is way more than a fair market price for this contract.

I see 2 downsides to a contract this large:

1. It becomes hard to sell, should you need to liquidate it on the quicker side.
2. If 1417 points is 'too man'; they can not sell off 200 of them and downsize a little bit.

There are some of the valid things to consider and the OP can choose if these are concerns or not.

And the OP and wife do seem to have a very demanding jobs. So the question about is DVC a good choice for them is also very salient, since it really requires booking well in advance, and the penalties for last minute cancellations is steep. Again, just points for the OP to consider and decide.

Yeah, those are all things we need to consider. Also, I’m a guy just for future posts!

 

[sugliac]

I haven't read every post, so apologies if this has been hashed out... Have you seen the 'predicted booking patterns' thread (it won't let me link directly to it, saying it's spam so search that string)? It might be a handy resource if you want to get an idea of what's generally available X months out.

Also have you considered splitting your points between two resorts? Aulani and maybe something WDW based? Unless you're absolutely certain you want Aulani to be your only home base for the next few decades, you may want to consider a mainland based resort for a variety of reasons. You could alternate which resort you travel to each year and bank at the other resort for the following year.

I have! I am thinking about doing a smaller Aulani contract, then larger Grand Floridian and Bay Lake ones. All same UY. Still mulling things over tho.

 

[Great3]

I think $99 a point for Aulani is on the high range of fair in the current market. It's a small sample, but the ROFR thread entries that have passed in the last two quarters range from $73 to $95. I think $99/point for a 1400 point contract is WAY over priced from a market perspective. When a 135 point contract has traded as low as $73 I don't see how a 1400 point contract should ever trade near the high end of the range. Sure, if someone is looking to take their family to Aulani in a GV in week 52 it might be a good fit. Hopefully for whoever is selling it finds that buyer. I'm guess he/she might be waiting a while.

A contract like this makes the most financial sense if you can get it below market price so if you decide to sell you don't take a bath. If i wanted 1400 points I'd be comfortable bidding $60 on the large contract or closer to $85 on seven 200 point contracts. But I wouldn't get anywhere close to $85 on the 1400 point contract. But I am looking at it from a value perspective on what I can buy for and what I can theoretically sell for if I want out. If you buy DVC going in thinking you will hold until it expires that's a bit different. But in no situation would i ever pay the same for the two size contracts.

Just remember, people like to report the best deals they got for ROFR, nobody reports their "okay" deal. Except for Fidelity (which took me > 4 months to close versus < 2 months at another broker), the actual average selling price for Aulani is actually greater than $100 per point for many of the other brokers.

Also, Market Price isn't determined by ROFR, it's determined by the lowest price a seller is willing to sell, and the highest a buyer is willing to pay. Just because you see one contract pass ROFR at $73 doesn't mean that's the usual market price, it just means at that moment in time, day, or week, there was one seller willing to bring the market price down. I am sure you won't find too many sellers willing to accept that low, most are still asking > $90 a points still even at Fidelity, with some going for $87-$88 just to try and move their listing faster. So while you can probably succeed getting an Aulani contract at $85 / point or less if you are patience enough, and willing to wait awhile, there's many others that are willing to pay $90 or more, and even > $100 just to avoid Fidelity slowness. Lots of buyers, especially first time buyers are impatient for listings to come up for lower list price, when they are ready to own, they just want to be "done" with it, so they continue to prop up the market price at closer to $100 / point for Aulani.

Although we all want to pay the lowest price we see reported in the ROFR threads, the key is gook luck finding many sellers willing to sell for $73 a point, or even for $85 a point for Aulani (although they do exist).

Great3

 

[sugliac]

Just remember, people like to report the best deals they got for ROFR, nobody reports their "okay" deal. Except for Fidelity (which took me > 4 months to close versus < 2 months at another broker), the actual average selling price for Aulani is actually greater than $100 per point for many of the other brokers.

Also, Market Price isn't determined by ROFR, it's determined by the lowest price a seller is willing to sell, and the highest a buyer is willing to pay. Just because you see one contract pass ROFR at $73 doesn't mean that's the usual market price, it just means at that moment in time, day, or week, there was one seller willing to bring the market price down. I am sure you won't find too many sellers willing to accept that low, most are still asking > $90 a points still even at Fidelity, with some going for $87-$88 just to try and move their listing faster. So while you can probably succeed getting an Aulani contract at $85 / point or less if you are patience enough, and willing to wait awhile, there's many others that are willing to pay $90 or more, and even > $100 just to avoid Fidelity slowness. Lots of buyers, especially first time buyers are impatient for listings to come up for lower list price, when they are ready to own, they just want to be "done" with it, so they continue to prop up the market price at closer to $100 / point for Aulani.

Although we all want to pay the lowest price we see reported in the ROFR threads, the key is gook luck finding many sellers willing to sell for $73 a point, or even for $85 a point for Aulani (although they do exist).

Great3

This is a good point and def something to consider. Thanks for the thoughtful comment!

 

[Deb & Bill]

If you plan to book your DVC stays like you used the Rent/Trade Board, you probably won't be very happy when you can't get anything you want to book.