NEW VGF Building

[CastAStone]

SSR with the THV I guess is the closest thing to these new rooms. I will have to go back and see how points were adjusted for those.

According to the historical charts at http://tagrel.com/util/dvcChart.php they were the same until 2012 and diverged in 2013. But in that case they took points out of the first phase and added them to the second phase.

 

[davidl81]

I still haven’t bought because the value isn’t there right now for me at the resorts I want. We almost pulled the trigger on Saratoga springs when it was sub-$90 last year, but then it became apparent that we would be moving, and I wanted the cash on hand for a better interest rate while buying a house, and in the meantime, prices went nuts.

I’m waiting and learning.

Looking at where you have booked previously DVC math will never actually pencil out for you (and of course you know that). That of course is not a bad thing, it's just hard on a pure dollars figure to compare booking offsite sometimes, moderates some times, deluxe other times etc to DVC. DVC math only really works out when it's Deluxe studio every year at rack rate -20% versus DVC prices. Then of course what happens is you rent a 1BR one time and you instantly add on because the idea of a studio for one week is horrible.

We bought in 12 or so years ago without knowing much about resale, but we had looked into renting points, So disboards helped us some. Of course it was a different time as direct prices at AKV I think were like $110 or maybe less so the actual cash difference of direct versus resale was not as big as it can be now. But once you buy in it's hard not to add on as we honestly enjoy bringing family with us on trips, which ends up costing more points.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

We are VGF owners (small contract) and I would have to say I have been quite upset about this.

After pondering for a couple days, my thinking is that these rooms will have a queen murphy bed making them a studio but without a kitchenette, hence a resort villa not a deluxe villa. The kitchen facilities will be small like the Riviera Tower studios which doesn't include a sink, you need to use the bathroom one to wash dishes. So no plumbing or wall changes required and they won't have the extra shower/change area like the current vgf studios. I think the point chart will be about the same as you are gaining a bit of space but losing the extra bathing/changing area. If it wasn't for the loss of the split bath, I think I'd be ok with it depending on what the point chart looks like.

Unfortunately, I think it is going to be really hard to get rooms in the resort we bought into. I'm predicting as owners we are going to be on a waitlist at 11 months every year. I hope Disney proves me wrong.

Why would a kitchenette be omitted? All DVC studios except Riviera Tower studio have a kitchenette . I don’t see why they couldn’t put one in. That would be a hard sell if that was not included. Have to respectfully disagree.

 

[sethschroeder]

Why would a kitchenette be omitted? All DVC studios except Riviera Tower studio has a kitchenette . I don’t see why they couldn’t put one in. That would be a hard sell if that was not included. Have to respectfully disagree.

Dont some rooms at AUL not have one? Also why are they naming it different they seem?

Not sure but I can see the argument of them dropping it that people want to make based on clues so far.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Dont some rooms at AUL not have one? Also why are they naming it different they seem?

Not sure but I can see the argument of them dropping it that people want to make based on clues so far.

This is a flagship resort. I can not imagine the new rooms not having a kitchen area similar to what all other DVC studios have.Not buying into this theory at all.

 

[JETSDAD]

Why would a kitchenette be omitted? All DVC studios except Riviera Tower studio has a kitchenette . I don’t see why they couldn’t put one in. That would be a hard sell if that was not included. Have to respectfully disagree.

Just guesses based on an apparent different name and the timeline for the reno. They very well could have a kitchenette though.

 

[davidl81]

According to the historical charts at http://tagrel.com/util/dvcChart.php they were the same until 2012 and diverged in 2013. But in that case they took points out of the first phase and added them to the second phase.

Yeah that's what I thought had happened but I was not 100% sure. If that is the case I guess the inverse could happen. The new studios could be significantly higher in point per night than the older studios, and then at some point (likely after sales close) they could rebalance the points. This would assume that a 20% point per night increase for the new studios would not materially impact sales. My guess is that it would not as the guides would say "you can book at the older rooms for this price still". So to an extent a precedent has been established for Seth's point.

 

[davidl81]

This is a flagship resort. I can not imagine the new rooms not having a kitchen area similar to what all other DVC studios have.Not buying into this theory at all.

Hot take here, but I think very few DVC buyers really care if they have a kitchenette or not when thy first buy. They are used to staying in the hotel rooms, and that is what they are comparing to. Now add on buyers etc would be different.

 

[CastAStone]

Looking at where you have booked previously DVC math will never actually pencil out for you (and of course you know that). That of course is not a bad thing, it's just hard on a pure dollars figure to compare booking offsite sometimes, moderates some times, deluxe other times etc to DVC. DVC math only really works out when it's Deluxe studio every year at rack rate -20% versus DVC prices. Then of course what happens is you rent a 1BR one time and you instantly add on because the idea of a studio for one week is horrible.

We bought in 12 or so years ago without knowing much about resale, but we had looked into renting points, So disboards helped us some. Of course it was a different time as direct prices at AKV I think were like $110 or maybe less so the actual cash difference of direct versus resale was not as big as it can be now. But once you buy in it's hard not to add on as we honestly enjoy bringing family with us on trips, which ends up costing more points.

I am perfectly fine with never buying and if the price never matches to where I need to be to make sense for me. I really need the financials to make sense for me to justify buying it, and to make sense not in a DVC resale market blog post kind of way, but rather in a corporate finance kind of way. A couple of the resorts are close enough that I could imagine a contract coming available that makes sense for me as things ebb and flow; as we’ve seen with the ride the animal kingdom pricing has taken this past year, random variations in the number of contracts on the market can make for significant fluctuations in price.

But if that means we wait until a recession then we wait until a recession. We can stay in Value family suites. We can rent points. We’ll buy when it makes sense. (That might yet be direct at DLV if the pricing and point chart make sense).

 

[Nabas]

Looking at where you have booked previously DVC math will never actually pencil out for you (and of course you know that). That of course is not a bad thing, it's just hard on a pure dollars figure to compare booking offsite sometimes, moderates some times, deluxe other times etc to DVC. DVC math only really works out when it's Deluxe studio every year at rack rate -20% versus DVC prices. Then of course what happens is you rent a 1BR one time and you instantly add on because the idea of a studio for one week is horrible.

We bought resale 10 years ago. I have closely tracked how much I have spent on the original purchase and annual MF compared to rack rate.

At the moment, I'm at 59.5% discount off of rack rate. In other words, a $500/night room at a Disney Deluxe Resort has cost me about $200/night so far. Over time, my discount should continue to improve as the original purchase gets spread across more years.

It's hard to imagine I'll ever be able to come close to that with a direct purchase of RIV or VGF.

Still, my spouse and I really would like to be able to book VGF every year in May, and common sense goes out the window when you really want something.

 

[davidl81]

We bought resale 10 years ago. I have closely tracked how much I have spent on the original purchase and annual MF compared to rack rate.

At the moment, I'm at 59.5% discount off of rack rate. In other words, a $500/night room at a Disney Deluxe Resort has cost me about $200/night so far. Over time, my discount should continue to improve as the original purchase gets spread across more years.

It's hard to imagine I'll ever be able to come close to that with a direct purchase of RIV or VGF.

Still, my spouse and I really would like to be able to book VGF every year in May, and common sense goes out the window when you really want something.

Yes resale 10 years ago was a fantastic purchase!

And I am the same as you, I know the price for these new VGF studios won't pencil out very well, yet I will very likely sell one of my SSR accounts and buy the VGF ones. Part of that is having some faith that the VGF resale prices will continue to stay strong so I will never be significantly underwater, yet I will be able to book VGF every year in a studio for marathon weekends etc.

 

[Days In the Sun]

Why would a kitchenette be omitted? All DVC studios except Riviera Tower studio has a kitchenette . I don’t see why they couldn’t put one in. That would be a hard sell if that was not included. Have to respectfully disagree.

I'm going by the fact that they aren't calling them deluxe studios and they don't call the Riviera tower studios deluxe either. Lots of room to put them in but I don't think they will since they seem to be trying to do a quick turnaround which is why I don't think they will do the extra shower area either.

I can see every year asking our group whether it's vgf1 or vgf2 this time. I know they would prefer the extra bath area, they are young adults now.

Most of our points are at BLT and they are our favorite studios by far due to the kitchen area. But we are the exception rather than the norm, most people want more space and don't want to cook which I think these new studios will provide.

I do however hope you are correct.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Well if these new rooms have no kitchen area, then they will have to be a different booking category. Then, that will absolutely put pressure on the original studios as far as booking is concerned.

 

[Days In the Sun]

Well if these new rooms have no kitchen area, then they will have to be a different booking category. Then, that will absolutely put pressure on the original studios as far as booking is concerned.

Yes, I think a different category and it's going to be tough. Honestly just hope they provide more info soon ... like a room layout and a point chart. I'm not feeling this is very ethical on Disney's part since they are drastically changing what we bought.

 

[Nabas]

Yes, I think a different category and it's going to be tough. Honestly just hope they provide more info soon ... like a room layout and a point chart. I'm not feeling this is very ethical on Disney's part since they are drastically changing what we bought.

Depending on how Disney handles this, this does seem like it has the potential to adversely impact existing VGF members. Getting more information sooner rather than later would alleviate concerns.

 

[RoseGold]

I don’t think the actual walls will get knocked down etc, but everything will be brand new inside the building. Carpet, fixtures, bathroom etc. This is Disney’s flagship resort, they won’t skimp out on it.

Wow, with the 2018 take. Disney is hemorrhaging money and this is a cash grab. I’m guessing this remodel is not going to be a heavy investment. That was the point.

 

[sethschroeder]

This is a flagship resort. I can not imagine the new rooms not having a kitchen area similar to what all other DVC studios have.Not buying into this theory at all.

Wait GF has kitchenettes? Didn't know they did.

It's hard to imagine I'll ever be able to come close to that with a direct purchase of RIV or VGF.

Bought RIV direct for $155 if AP come back will end up way ahead.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Don’t you think a good thing about VGF2 all studios compared to Poly is they don’t have point monsters like the bungalows? First of all, you don’t have a ton of points sold that account for the bungalows yet go to people who will rarely use them. Second, you don’t have to worry about the possibility of a point chart adjustment where they drop the points cost of the bungalows but add them to the studios.

 

[davidl81]

Wow, with the 2018 take. Disney is hemorrhaging money and this is a cash grab. I’m guessing this remodel is not going to be a heavy investment. That was the point.

Disney thinks long term for the most part. Losing money for a year or two is not a huge deal as long as Disney+ is adding subs. DVC has proved to be a huge money maker for them, they are not going to devalue that brand by trying to get super cheap on a new sale at the flagship resort. Doing VGF well is still significantly less capital then the brand new building at reflections.

 

[Nabas]

Disney thinks long term for the most part. Losing money for a year or two is not a huge deal as long as Disney+ is adding subs.

Quoting from the Motley Fool:

Disney reported only 8.7 million subscribers were added to Disney+ in the quarter, far below the 14.4 million Wall Street was expecting. It ended the period with 103.6 million subscribers, or nearly 6 million less than the 109.3 million analysts estimated.​

​

And much of that growth was due to international markets, primarily India's Disney+ Hotstar channel, which was responsible for most of the additions in the quarter. The service accounts for about one-third of the total Disney+ subscriber base.​

​

It also significantly lowered Disney's average revenue per user, which fell from $5.63 to $3.99, and may explain why Disney hiked the price of Disney+ by $1 per month. I won't break anyone's bank, but indicates the service may need to continue raising prices going forward to bolster the bottom line, and that may eventually weigh on future growth.​

Disney+ is not meeting Wall Street's expectations.

Free cash flow was a net minus $62 million for the first six months of the current fiscal year. (Compare this to a net gain of $2.2 billion for the first 6 months of the previous fiscal year, i.e. before COVID.)

Disney entered into a $5 billion unsecured credit agreement in April 2020.

Disney wants to see a positive cash flow right now. Getting a quick $300 million by converting one GF building to DVC is a no-brainer at this point.

On this particular issue, Disney is not thinking long-term. They want to turn around free cash flow as quickly as possible.