New DVC Contract for Wilderness Lodge?

[DisPhotoFan]

Hello,
first time posting to this website, so hopefully this is the right section.

I have been looking at becoming a member of DVC for the past year or so and decided that it would be worth it for our family. I see that Disney is currently only selling Poly and Aulani, and while my wife and I like the Poly, and would like to visit Aulani in the near future, our favorite resort is the Wilderness Lodge (got engaged there). I know that they are just starting to do a remodel and are going to be building the new cabins, but I am wondering if there is any information out there regarding if Disney will start selling new contracts for the lodge? Would rather hold of on the purchase of DVC for now and buy there.

 

[jerseyduke]

Have not heard any rumors, but it is likely at least a year away, if not more.

Also, it seems as if the VWL2, at least as of now, is going to be bungalows.

If you like the Wilderness Lodge, you can buy on the resale market (an existing contract that expires in 2042, in the neighborhood of 95$ per point)
Or you can wait until WL2 comes on line (and my guess is, in the 180$ per point range)

Disney has, in essence created a 2 pronged currency system - price per point, and points per night.
Every resort the price per point goes up, and almost every resort the point per night goes up.

VW2 might be VERY expensive.

 

[suebeelin]

If you love WL, and will prefer that resort, I would either wait for their new WL Dvc offering, or buy resale !!

WL2 is definitely coming out but a year or two away. Can you wait that long?

2042 is a long ways away so perhaps resale makes sense!

 

[SleighBelle]

I would call DVC as ask what they have in terms of contracts for Wildnerness Lodge.
Due to poor planning on my part, I ended up buying BLT direct earlier this year. So, there is sometimes a non-publicized option to buy direct.
Good luck!

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Oh, Disney will sell you a contract for the existing VWL. The thing to understand is that it will still be a 2042 contract, and you will be paying $60/point more to Disney than you would pay in resale.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

There has been little official word from DVC yet probably due to timeshare laws. What things look like is that there will be cabins along the shore Baylake and they are currently working on rooms in the south wing of wilderness lodge that are expected to become part of the new villas. Best guess is those will be studios, 1 BRs and 2 BRs. Timing is unknown but I do expect if things move along appropriately within a year or so things will go on sale. That's just my own best guess. Construction has been announced as going through 2017. As mentioned you can currently by VWL thru resale and its likely DVC has points direct to but the price compared to resale makes little sense.

 

[BobCharlie]

Will the construction (and eventual upkeep) of VWL2 affect the annual dues for the current VWL owners? Or will they be tracked entirely separately? I'm thinking of purchasing a resale VWL contract as well but am concerned the dues might skyrocket if amenities and expenses are shared.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Will the construction (and eventual upkeep) of VWL2 affect the annual dues for the current VWL owners? Or will they be tracked entirely separately? I'm thinking of purchasing a resale VWL contract as well but am concerned the dues might skyrocket if amenities and expenses are shared.

They are almost certainly to be separate properties, as mixing them would get complicated under condo association law in Florida.

Amenities at WL are shared, and presumably will be shared by both "properties," and by amenities, I mean stuff like pools and the health club and transport. None of that should skyrocket via the addition of units, as particularly the Lodge units used to be occupied by CRO/Disney guests anyway. Total population will be largely stable, save for the cabins.

 

[ColinBlair]

Have not heard any rumors, but it is likely at least a year away, if not more.

Also, it seems as if the VWL2, at least as of now, is going to be bungalows.

If you like the Wilderness Lodge, you can buy on the resale market (an existing contract that expires in 2042, in the neighborhood of 95$ per point)
Or you can wait until WL2 comes on line (and my guess is, in the 180$ per point range)

Disney has, in essence created a 2 pronged currency system - price per point, and points per night.
Every resort the price per point goes up, and almost every resort the point per night goes up.

VW2 might be VERY expensive.

Here is some fun with numbers. Lets say jerseyduke is correct with the $180 pricetag and lets imagine that Disney suddenly started selling VWL2 this year at that price. We can actually compare the number of years on a VWL1 contract vs a VWL2 contract and calculate how much a VWL1 contract should cost based on the VWL2 cost. What is interesting is that if we do that, we get an answer of $95 per point which matches what the current resale price is. If you actually bought VWL1 from Disney direct, you are not just paying $60 a point more than resale, you are paying $60 a point more than VWL2.

 

[jerseyduke]

There has been little official word from DVC yet probably due to timeshare laws. What things look like is that there will be cabins along the shore Baylake and they are currently working on rooms in the south wing of wilderness lodge that are expected to become part of the new villas. Best guess is those will be studios, 1 BRs and 2 BRs. Timing is unknown but I do expect if things move along appropriately within a year or so things will go on sale. That's just my own best guess. Construction has been announced as going through 2017. As mentioned you can currently by VWL thru resale and its likely DVC has points direct to but the price compared to resale makes little sense.

This is very pertinent. I was unaware that they were converting Lodge rooms (however, I had heard that that was the next DVC project before even hearing about the water front bungalows. I also assumed that would be the base, and Disney will use the 'Great Polynesian Switch" using those bungalows to add points to the new system, not caring if they are used for bungalows or not; which could place added demand on the converted rooms)

I am pretty sure DIS is not allowed to say anything until the building is a certain % complete due to laws.

Also, when converting VW2 prices to correlate to VW1 prices, you have to take into account Time Value of Money, which PP did not do. Money has a time period associated with it, and you can not move it through time without applying a discount rate to it.

Assuming VWL2 expires in 2067 (25 years after the 2042 date of VWL1):

Saying that VWL1 should be 95 per point based on VWL2 going for 180pp, which in effect is saying they cost the same per point per year, is incorrect.

If you buy a VWL2 contract at 180 per point, and make it the same as buying a VWL1 at 95$ resale, that is, in effect, buying a VWL2 contract that expires in 2042(for 95 per point), and then buying a second contract that goes from 2043-2067 (at the 180-95, or 85$ per point), but the kick is, you are paying for that second contract NOW- and can not use it until 2042!!!

Moving money back from 2042 to present day, using a 3% discount rate means 177$(in 2042) = 85$ in 2016

Also, an assumption is being made that the converted rooms will be the same points per night as the current villa rooms. Not an assumption I would make.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The main assumptions I'm making, to be honest, are these:

• If they add the new work to the existing association, if that's even legally possible, they're stuck with the 2042 expiration date. Selling a new build with a 2042 is ridiculous, and having one association with contracts expiring in 2042 and sometime later is just asking for trouble (and didn't they already invite that with OKW?).
• Converting the half Lodge to DVC makes sense, because a property that is just cabins would be a challenge at best. Also, as we saw with Jambo House, converting some existing to DVC allows them to start selling while construction is underway.
• Since all the new units are separate from the current Villa building, it's easy to keep them on a separate booking category and dues structure, and there are probably issues if you merged them with the existing association in that regard.

I cannot come up with any economic argument to make the construction part of the "old" VWL, even if it is possible to do. What I don't know is how they intend to market it so that it has separate status. I suspect all the buildings end up with cute names (see again: AKL wasn't Jambo House before before Kiadni was built).

 

[jerseyduke]

The main assumptions I'm making, to be honest, are these:

• If they add the new work to the existing association, if that's even legally possible, they're stuck with the 2042 expiration date. Selling a new build with a 2042 is ridiculous, and having one association with contracts expiring in 2042 and sometime later is just asking for trouble (and didn't they already invite that with OKW?).
• Converting the half Lodge to DVC makes sense, because a property that is just cabins would be a challenge at best. Also, as we saw with Jambo House, converting some existing to DVC allows them to start selling while construction is underway.
• Since all the new units are separate from the current Villa building, it's easy to keep them on a separate booking category and dues structure, and there are probably issues if you merged them with the existing association in that regard.

I cannot come up with any economic argument to make the construction part of the "old" VWL, even if it is possible to do. What I don't know is how they intend to market it so that it has separate status. I suspect all the buildings end up with cute names (see again: AKL wasn't Jambo House before before Kiadni was built).

Exactly.

If the end product is just the bungalows, that is a HARD SELL! The have to convert rooms. (Also I heard years ago, that this was the plan as WL had occupancy issues. It is one of the cheapest deluxe resorts...not a sign of high demand)

I doubt it is legally possible to combine the two resorts. (But I am not a lawyer).

Disney is not going to build something new, and try to sell it for 170-190 per point that expires in 2042.

They will come up with some cute, clever way to market it, and differentiate it.

Villas IN the wilderness lodge or some other ****.

Remember while Disney Vacation Developers leases the land from Disney, that is just legal BS. Disney is leasing the land from Disney. So they can put whatever expiration date they want, my guess is 2067 for WL2.

 

[ColinBlair]

If you buy a VWL2 contract at 180 per point, and make it the same as buying a VWL1 at 95$ resale, that is, in effect, buying a VWL2 contract that expires in 2042(for 95 per point), and then buying a second contract that goes from 2043-2067 (at the 180-95, or 85$ per point), but the kick is, you are paying for that second contract NOW- and can not use it until 2042!!!

When VLW opened in November 2000 the price for DVC was $67 per point and it is currently $95 on the resale market after 16 years. I calculate the inflation of VWL1 prices at 2.2% over those 16 years. If that continues in the future, then in 25 years the resale price of VLW2 would be $311. I don't include time value of money because then you have to starting bringing in even more guesses about the future, especially since the result is just to make retail look slightly worse then it already is.

EDIT: Just realized I made a math error there since I don't actually know what the resale price of VWL1 was just after it because available. So, I don't know if 2.2% is correct or not, it may actually be higher then that.

 

[DisPhotoFan]

Thanks all for the insight, gave me a lot to think about.
For one, never really considered going the resale route, but will explore it as an option.

auroraborealis, you mentioned that it would be ridiculous if Disney sold new builds with the 2042 end date, but having a second contract with a later expiration can be trouble (sorry for my ignorance, but what happened at OKW?). Could Disney possible extend all the older VWL contracts to this new end date?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Thanks all for the insight, gave me a lot to think about.
For one, never really considered going the resale route, but will explore it as an option.

auroraborealis, you mentioned that it would be ridiculous if Disney sold new builds with the 2042 end date, but having a second contract with a later expiration can be trouble (sorry for my ignorance, but what happened at OKW?). Could Disney possible extend all the older VWL contracts to this new end date?

Basically, they offered OKW owners an extension to 2057. Some of them took it. Most didn't. So instead of having the whole resort expire in 2042, they have some contracts that continue. This makes the property problematic for return to Disney and proportionality and the condo association.

Disney will not extend the VWL contracts that are 2042 for free; free is not their business model. But the failure of theOKW extension makes it unlikely they'll offer paid extension the same way.

The VWL2, which is what we're calling the cabins and new units, will be a separate condo association within the resort, and be sold as 2062 contracts or later. VWL as it exists will remain a separate association expiring in 2042.***




*** speculation, but it is the only model that makes sense.

 

[jerseyduke]

Disney will not extend the VWL contracts that are 2042 for free; free is not their business model. But the failure of theOKW extension makes it unlikely they'll offer paid extension the same way.

I have to totally disagree with that part. Every time I go down there, they very successfully free the money from my wallet!

 

[_auroraborealis_]

they very successfully free the money from my wallet!

Yes, but they trap it. They certainly don't let it wander about.

 

[jerseyduke]

When VLW opened in November 2000 the price for DVC was $67 per point and it is currently $95 on the resale market after 16 years. I calculate the inflation of VWL1 prices at 2.2% over those 16 years. If that continues in the future, then in 25 years the resale price of VLW2 would be $311. I don't include time value of money because then you have to starting bringing in even more guesses about the future, especially since the result is just to make retail look slightly worse then it already is.

EDIT: Just realized I made a math error there since I don't actually know what the resale price of VWL1 was just after it because available. So, I don't know if 2.2% is correct or not, it may actually be higher then that.

2.2% is pretty much right on, with regard to the 67 in 2000 becoming 95 today.

However, the 311 is WAY OFF! In 2042, 95$ today will = `167$

However, the idea with regard to TVM, is that you can outpace inflation! At least, hopefully! TVM does introduce more variables, but money has a time associated with it, you can not move money in time without adjusting it.

I bought VGF direct, because i wanted it when it opened.

I just bought VWL resale. I would not buy VWL2 direct. When my contract runs out in 2042, I would pick up a VWL2 resale if is suited me, and we avoided a zombie apocalypse.

Realize that every year you go into the future, those points have less and less current value.

 

[Dean]

Hello,
first time posting to this website, so hopefully this is the right section.

I have been looking at becoming a member of DVC for the past year or so and decided that it would be worth it for our family. I see that Disney is currently only selling Poly and Aulani, and while my wife and I like the Poly, and would like to visit Aulani in the near future, our favorite resort is the Wilderness Lodge (got engaged there). I know that they are just starting to do a remodel and are going to be building the new cabins, but I am wondering if there is any information out there regarding if Disney will start selling new contracts for the lodge? Would rather hold of on the purchase of DVC for now and buy there.

In your situation I'd look at VWL resale or wait on the new resort announcement. Remember the "new" resort at WL will be separate, a much higher pp price AND almost certainly much higher points per room as well. You won't be able to reserve the new section with old points or vice versa until 7 months out. Look at the Poly as a reference for points for the new VWL II, likely just slightly lower. Of course you could buy now at VWL and add on later at the new option as well which might be the best option if you need a larger number of points of say 200 or more. Anything under I wouldn't plan for both at this time. If you do opt for the VWL II, make sure you buy a fixed week as they will likely offer that option and it will give you additional benefits and protections going forward.

They are almost certainly to be separate properties, as mixing them would get complicated under condo association law in Florida.

Amenities at WL are shared, and presumably will be shared by both "properties," and by amenities, I mean stuff like pools and the health club and transport. None of that should skyrocket via the addition of units, as particularly the Lodge units used to be occupied by CRO/Disney guests anyway. Total population will be largely stable, save for the cabins.

The wording of the announcement strongly suggested separate resorts as doses common sense. It'd be easy to mix them if they made it a 2042 expiration but that's unlikely because of the money they'd be giving up doing so. And it be easy to mix them if the extended VWL which I believe is extremely unlikely for them to do in time to combine them into one.

Basically, they offered OKW owners an extension to 2057. Some of them took it. Most didn't. So instead of having the whole resort expire in 2042, they have some contracts that continue. This makes the property problematic for return to Disney and proportionality and the condo association.

Disney will not extend the VWL contracts that are 2042 for free; free is not their business model. But the failure of theOKW extension makes it unlikely they'll offer paid extension the same way.

The VWL2, which is what we're calling the cabins and new units, will be a separate condo association within the resort, and be sold as 2062 contracts or later. VWL as it exists will remain a separate association expiring in 2042.***




*** speculation, but it is the only model that makes sense.

I tend to agree, they may extend 2042 resorts later but they've got to do it completely differently than they did OKW. IMO even if they do it for free, it's still a win for them but as noted, this is not the Disney way. IMO a large reason for the failed OKW extension is that they were greedy. I put the reasonable price for the OKW extension at the time at between $5 and $8 pp depending on how important it was for them to get a high to very higher % of participation. IMO the perfect way to offer extensions is to tie them to a minimum retail purchase. Another option and one I think might actually be the best big picture, is to offer a new OKW extension at say $10 or again at $15 per point and to refund the difference for those who paid for the extension. I realize there are some problematic issues such as a large initial cash outlay and handling of the refund to those who are no longer owners if they went under $15 (or for those that paid more) but it offers a lot of advantages. They get the benefit of targeting the expirations all to a more uniform and distant RTU date and can use the cash to pay for the refunds which could be $5 per point or slightly more for roughly 25% of the OKW points. It helps with new add on portions at existing resorts and adds some sales benefits (and challenges) in selling new portions of existing resorts. $15 a point is more reasonable now as we're much closer to the RTU date at this time, inflation makes it a better deal now and there have been signifiant price increases in the interim. Going to the $15 level means they only have to worry about those who paid more than $15 and minor complains from those that did and they can throw them a bone as part of the deal like a couple of free passes. The other issue is that with OKW they threatened a special assessment for those that didn't extend or sign over their rights. I haven't heard of them actually doing that and as I read the POS, they don't have the authority for a SA for this purpose.

 

[ColinBlair]

2.2% is pretty much right on, with regard to the 67 in 2000 becoming 95 today.

However, the 311 is WAY OFF! In 2042, 95$ today will = `167$

I was calculating from $180, the guessed retail price of VWL2. I was not calculating from $95 which is the current resale price of VWL1. As I indicated in my edit, I am not sure I am happy with the numbers since I don't know the full history of resale prices for VWL1. I am pretty sure your number of 167 is low since that would have the resale of VWL2 being below the original retail price.

Realize that every year you go into the future, those points have less and less current value.

Depends on how you look at it. For example, when SSR first opened the points cost $1.90 each. When I purchased my resale contract last year they were worth $2.05 each. Looking around now, it looks like they are averaging $2.23 each. From an IRS standpoint, that is more value. From an adjusting for inflation standpoint, that is less value.