New crowd level predictions by UG

[Jackie H.]

Tinkaroo,

Most (if not all) the schools in Alabama take their spring break the last week of March.. So maybe this is a big spring break time. And it seems the whole state of Alabama is empty that week and everyone has gone to Florida

My nephews went to school in Mississippi and their spring break was always a week or two before ours.

 

[jackskellingtonsgirl]

Well, crap. I now have 1 day at "4", 6 days at "5" and 1 day at "6". That sounds rather unpleasant. No wonder it is called "regular" season in October! Grrr.

Too late to back out now, though! As much as I hate the thought of having to zig zag all over the park like the touring plans suggest we might have to consider it. I am disappointed that UG doesn't seem to be offering the custom touring plans anymore. We wouldn't have needed them in January, but it is looking like they would have been VERY handy for next time. The ones they are currently offering just don't appear to fit our family very well - the closest one would be for families with boys age 4-8. I may have to check it out anyway. Probably better than nothing!

 

[TiggerPiglet]

Wow, I'm going during Jersey Week and they have mostly "4's" for that week. Sounds good to me

 

[MomofKatie]

I saw the revised crowd level numbers, too, and I was kind of freaked out. Then, I saw that the meaning of the numbers has changed, too. They now are a lot more specific. So, what was a 2 or 3 before could be a 5 or 6 now, but mean the same thing. At least, that's what I hope!!

 

[lentesta]

Hi folks,

MomOfKatie is correct - the scale has changed, which is why lots of folks see an increase in the numbers. In particular, the scale is more specific than before.

Some background information:

The scale measures the "worst case" wait time at the Magic Kingdom's three headliner attractions: Space Mountain, Big Thunder Mountain, and Splash Mountain. If you want an idea of how crowded the park will be, this is a good number to use. For example, a value of 7 means that the longest wait of the day at one of those three attractions should be between 70 and 79 minutes. Again, it's a "worst case" number, not what we expect you to wait if you have a touring plan.

So far this year, the average peak wait time is 65 minutes at these attractions, and the standard deviation is just under 20 minutes. Thus, the average crowd rating for all of 2005 is about a 6.5 on our scale.

What does this mean? It means that, on average, the worst wait of the day is a little more than an hour at these attractions. And it means that most of the time, the longest waits at these attractions are between 45 and 85 minutes. So 45 to 85 minutes is "normal."

You may never actually experience those kinds of waits, especially if you use a good touring plan. If you visit Splash Mountain at 10 am, your wait is almost certainly going to be lower than if you visited at 1:30 pm, especially on busy days.

If you're the "planner" in the family, I'd use this information to convince that reluctant child or spouse that having a basic game plan is a good idea. A simple "We should see this now, because the waits are supposed to be 90 minutes later on" may be helpful here.

Why is there no 1 or 2 on the scale? Early December used to be very slow, but there are a couple of large conferences (e.g., the 40,000 people for the Performance Racing Industries gathering) scheduled for now through 2008 that tend to drive things up. And I think Disney manages the capacities of these attractions to keep the waits at least 10 to 20 minutes during the busiest times of the day.

Hope this helps! Thanks for looking at the site.

Sincerely,

Len

 

[Greg K.]

I have a sneaking suspicion that a BIG part of the uptick is due to the phenomenal explosion in hotel rooms. In the past few years, Disney has added hundreds (thousands?) of rooms, with the AKL, Pop Century, BCV, and now the still-expanding SSR.

All those extra people have EMH privileges, and that can't help but have an impact on crowds, even during the so-called "off" season.

 

[conniehar90]

What's up with Tuesday, June 7th? If Tuesday is the least visited day per the poll, why is this day a 9 compared to an 8 on Wednesday? I am visiting MK this day (with a plan) but am still concerned about the crowds.

 

[mill4023]

Len,
Are you saying that Easter sunday is going to be less crowded than every single day during the last 2 weeks of March?
I find that odd.

It also seems odd that every day in January and February will see waits of 40 minutes or longer on the headliner attractions. From what I've heard from other members, I thought there were many days during those two months when there were never waits longer than 10-20 minutes on any ride.

 

[momdoc]

Has anyone used a custom touring plan? I would love feedback from people who have. We will be there next week (that would be days that are a terrible 8 and 9 on the scale). We will have children 6 and under so of course MK is the place they will want to be. Do I pay the $6.95 for UG?

 

[Lives4Disney]

I really enjoy the Unofficial Guide. I have purchased it for the past few years and read through it many times. I just don't think those numbers are that reliable. We have been to WDW four times since the guide came out with the crowd level numbers and I really didn't think the levels in the book were accurate to what we experienced.

Go when you can go, hope for low crowds, but don't rely on the book's info for the crowd levels. Basing a trip on those numbers will just lead to disappointment and frustration.

Just my opinion based on my experience with the info.

Lives4Disney

 

[ntburns22]

The last time I checked my dates were all 3's (Oct. 18-21). Now they are 5's.

 

[Tinkbell]

Seems like crowds will be up this year. I know many families taking their first trip to WDW this year.

 

[wasabi girl]

Yikes!!! I was looking very forward to crowd levels of 1 during my early December trip, now they are 4s and a 6!

 

[DebbieB]

I was there the second week of May. Before the trip they had revised it to 7's and 8's. Turned out it wasn't very crowded at all. I don't put alot of faith in it.

 

[babar41]

First of all, thank you Len for the information on the scale changes. I have read a number of Disney books, but the only one I continue to buy every few years for the updates is UG. It has a wealth of information and I have found sound advice in it. Thank you to all who make this book so wonderful.

Lives4Disney, my experience with the crowds that UG has forcasted has been pretty much on target. Sorry you haven't found it that way.

Here is a question to ponder. If I told thousands of people (people that were interested in WDW so much that they bought my book to help plan their visit) that WDW was going to have only a few people in the parks the week of September 1 through 7, no matter how reliable my information was, don't you think some of those people would choose that week to go? Therefore changing the projected number? Just a thought.

 

[Debs1963]

We just got back 5/21 and similarly concerned with
the crowd projections. UG changed them on their websight from 4's to 7or 8's. I was flipping out. We went in May for the no crowd factor. Like other people have posted previously, the projections were not correct. The longest line I ever saw was 60 minute and that was on rides like Soaring, Space mountain and the Aerosmith coaster at MGM. My kids are 4 and 6 and the rides that they wanted to go on had maximum of 20 minute waits. Just go and have a good time! I worried needlessly for days.

 

[goodferry]

Could someone give me the link for this site? Thanks!

 

[Crazy Kanga]

Here is the link. http://www.touringplans.com/BestDays.htm

 

[Laura_Lewis]

Could someone give me the link for this site? Thanks!

here's the site: http://www.touringplans.com/BestDays.htm

 

[lfama]

Honestly, I really do not buy into this. They have the entire last week of March 2006 as a 10, and if they are basing it on last March, I don't really see how this is possible as we were there that same week and the longest we waited for a ride was about an hour for Space Mountain (and that's only because we went to the right track and it kept breaking down.) Other than that, we had short waits of 20min or less. Mostly less.