New crowd level predictions by UG

[dcgrumpy]

The first few days of my trip went from all 8's to 7,6 and 4, the rest of the trip went from all 1's to all 4's.

 

[WaltD4Me]

Just go and have a good time! I worried needlessly for days.

I totally agree! Crowd prediction for early May was 7's and 8's and I worried needlessy too, crowds were more like a 4, occasionally maybe a 5, but the longest we waited for anything was 25 minutes for Kali River Rapids, most everything else was 10 minutes or less.

I will say though, I didn't use a touring plan, but mostly because of these boards, I knew the best times to go on most rides and avoided certain places during known "busy" times, so maybe people did experience some 7 or 8 scale time waits while I was there, but honestly I just didn't see them.

Some of you commented about your dates going to a 4 from a 1 or 2, but really if that's correct a 4 isn't anything to worry about, that is still pretty low crowds. I've been during a "1" time and a "4" time and both were very enjoyable. 4 is very manageable, I even prefer it, because during the very slow "1" times, the parks close earlier and there are more refurbishments going on.

Don't worry about it, especially if your trip is planned and booked. Just go and have a good time! Don't make yourself crazy!

 

[leighmidd]

Alright everyone, let's settle down and remember...you're in Disneyworld. Are you in Disneyworld with everyone else living on the third planet? Probably so...but you're on vacation. Not just on vacation, on vacation at the happiest place on earth. Sorry, just had to remind everyone that the glass is half full!

 

[ccgegg]

The change in scale is the reason people seem to be alarmed. Everyone has gotten so used to the old scale that the new one sends them into panic mode. Our days went from a 1 to a 4, but all that means is the longest wait time for a MK headliner is 40-49 min during peak time. Most on these boards know not to go during peak times and so we will likely experience the 10-20 minute waits that everyone anticipates.

 

[missycj96]

how do you check? what's the address for the unofficial guide website?

 

[Greg K.]

From the UG website, re: "best days". Emphasis mine.

" According to our data, the attractions you visit and the time of day at which you visit them will have the greatest influence on how long you wait. On the other hand, the day of week and the weather will play only a small role. Statistically speaking, the time of day is 5 times more important than the day of the week.

Put another way, a good touring plan is much more important than choosing the right day to visit the parks. If you followed the Unofficial Guide's Magic Kingdom One-Day Touring Plan for Adults on a typical slow Tuesday and a typical busy Thursday, you'd only wait in line about 20 more minutes on Thursday - a little less than one incremental minute of wait time per attraction. In contrast, that same touring plan can save up to four hours of standing in line when compared to not following a plan."

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

The change in scale is the reason people seem to be alarmed. Everyone has gotten so used to the old scale that the new one sends them into panic mode. Our days went from a 1 to a 4, but all that means is the longest wait time for a MK headliner is 40-49 min during peak time. Most on these boards know not to go during peak times and so we will likely experience the 10-20 minute waits that everyone anticipates.

This same author says that if the standby line is 30 min or less, don't use fastpass as it's more hassle. If my longest wait for a headliner ride (at its peak time mind you) iis only 10 more minutes over that time, it's not going to be all that bad.

 

[cocowum]

We went to WDW the last week of April. Originally, the crowd levels were 3's. After the updates they were 8's. I was shocked. Len was right. It was packed! But we used UG's touring plan and we were fine. We didn't wait more then 10 mins in line. We avoided EMH parks and stuck to our touring plan. Here's a pic of what it looked like midday in MK. I had to put the camera above my head to snap the pic.

 

[lentesta]

Hi folks,

Thanks very much for the feedback, and for visiting the site! Just to clarify something about what the numbers mean. They're not predictions of how long you and your family will wait in line. They're predictions of what the worst wait will be at any of the three MK headliner attractions. If you visit these attractions early in the morning or late at night (or use FASTPASS), you'll never experience these kinds of waits.

We've recorded almost seven weeks of data so far this year in the Magic Kingdom, with at least one full week in every month. Only twice have we seen peak waits of less than 30 minutes, and that was during a cold spell in January with temperatures almost 20 degrees below normal. That's unusual, and I don't think we can build our model around that assumption. So there may be some days, especially off-season, where we're estimating maybe 10 minutes high. In that case, we'd rather be a bit high than a bit low.

Someone had asked about Easter Sunday versus spring break. This year, Easter Sunday had slightly lower peak waits than most days during spring break. I think we addressed possible reasons for this in the crowd blog, too.

Thanks again for reading the site.

Len

 

[lentesta]

Oh, and one more thing: there's always the possibility we'll be wrong, of course. We've seen two identical Thursdays, for example, with the Magic Kingdom open the same number of hours during the day, roughly the same number of hours for the week, with the same weekly hotel occupancy rates, and the wait times varied by 30 minutes. As we collect more information, we'll hopefully be able to figure out why this happens. Until then, use the numbers as a guide.

Thanks again!

Len

 

[disneyfett]

Len,

First, thank you so much for taking the time and effort to construct this crowd predicting information. We all here at DIS have a great time discussing it and planning according to it!

I think the issue we are having is not with the methodology or validity or your predictions. Instead it is with the new scale that has been utilized. According to your research you have not seen a time with less than 30 minutes peak wait. On your scale this means the absolute lowest crowd level one could ever expect to see is a 3 or 4. There is no statistically probability one will ever see a 1 or 2 on this scale. This makes it confusing to the average viewer of this data who has been condition to think a 5 on a 1-10 scale is an average day. On your scale an average day is somewhere around a 6 or 7. Hope this make sense...

Thanks again!

 

[Crazy Kanga]

Math is my weakness and statistics are the worst. I have 7's most of my week. Does this mean average crowds? I am planning on doing morning EMH until about noon then going to another park for evenings. I hope this works! What do you think Len?

 

[lentesta]

Crazy Kanga, yes, average days, and your EMH plan sounds good.

Would it help if I associated the words "Slow," "Average" and "Busy" with each rating on the chart? A day rated 1 through 4 would be slow, 5 through 8 would be average, and 9 and 10 would be busy. Would that help?

disneyfett, I agree having an average of 6.5 on the scale isn't as intuitive as a 5. We tried to balance a couple of competing factors with the numbering system. One was that the scale had to be easy to remember. Because of that, we felt it had to be linear. (The old scale was certainly not linear, and even I had trouble remembering the wait times associated with each number.)

Since we'd used a 1-10 scale in the past, we also thought we should use a 1-10 scale going forward. Finally, Disney posts wait times in 5-minute increments. All of these things effectively restrict our choices for the time quantum to 10 or 15 minute intervals.

Since most wait times fall between 45 and 85 minutes, we thought the 10 minute increment was a better choice. Also, I think most people don't really differentiate between waits of more than 100 minutes - they're all bad - so the upper end of a 15-minute scale would have been largely irrelevant to most people.

 

[ksjayhawkfan]

Would it help if I associated the words "Slow," "Average" and "Busy" with each rating on the chart? A day rated 1 through 4 would be slow, 5 through 8 would be average, and 9 and 10 would be busy. Would that help?

I think that would help,for me at least lol. I have 8 and 9 on all my days June 7-13, so seeing the words would put it in better perspective. We are planning on no EMH, but we are going to try MK on a dreaded Sat.

 

[mickeymom629]

I really don't like that the "secret" is spreading, but I have to admit that we went Easter Sunday through Friday, following the plan and IT WORKED!!! MK had early entry every morning at 7 a.m. That meant being on the bus by 6:15. Not all in my party were happy campers, but when the park started filling by midday, even my BIL thanked me and said I was right.

Thanks Len and UG!

I'm going with two families who've never been, the last week in June. Hopefully things will work out okay then, too.

 

[mickeymom629]

Oh, just one more thing. My DH told me to stop telling people to go to WDW!!! (it's been something I can't help)

 

[Madi100]

When are you thinking about going?? Much as I love the IG I have always felt they were a little off on the crowd predictions. With all the special things that WDW has year round, like the F&W fest and such, there is really not much "slow" time anymore IMO. Also, if these boards are any indication, most people have no problem taking kids out of school to go to WDW so going during school really doesn't mean less crowds at all.

I think that there are more people on this board that won't take their kids out of school. And, I was just talking to a group of moms here in town. There are actually more that would take their kids out of school, but still a large chunk that won't. I still think that overall people still do the "Summer Vacation" thing. We don't take any trips or vacations except in the summer besides Disney.

 

[disneyfett]

Would it help if I associated the words "Slow," "Average" and "Busy" with each rating on the chart? A day rated 1 through 4 would be slow, 5 through 8 would be average, and 9 and 10 would be busy. Would that help?

Think that would definetly help. Also might want to consider the "HEAT MAP" approach with the additional verbage. If you are not familiar with this, this is basically just using color coding to signify the "best" and "worst" days (i.e. the background of each row in your list).

ex.

Slow Day = Green
Average Day = Yellow
Busy Day = Red


This way people could quickly scan the calendar and find blocks of time for slow/average days. Just a thought....

 

[crazyj4488]

I will say this...I was there twice in the past month and I found the UG to be fairly accurate with their predictions.

The most crowded parks I experienced were always ones that had an EMH anything on that day. Avoid those parks like the plague on that day especially during the more crowded times of the month. EMH just isn't worth it unless you are getting that extra hour in the morning but the trade-off is a more crowded park because the EMH morning brought all those people in quicker. I can get twice as much done between 9 AM and 11 AM than at any EMH evening.

I have very strict touring plans and walked onto everything both weeks I went this past month. I was there during solid 7's on their scale during the last week of April too (man oh man were those parks crowded...UGH). The last week of May was pretty much dead right up until that Friday of Memorial day weekend...I jumped on a plane and headed back home on that day

 

[spiceycat]

Disney is adding to this.

on the sign it says 20 min wait - I saw the line couldn't believe it was 20 minutes and it certainly wasn't - more like 5.

lately they are putting more 20 min waits when it reality it can be alot less.

they use to be more accuracy in their wait times.

the fast pass for Test Track doesn't seem to work as well as the Single line.
so if your group will break up - this is the route to take.