New crowd level predictions by UG

[RevBob]

Regarding your comments on the 1-10 scale, yes, there are days that would have been rated higher than 10 had we not capped it. The week after Christmas, for example, should have its longest waits exceed 110 minutes. But we didn't think it was useful to differentiate between, say, a day with 100 minute waits, and days with 120 minute waits. Both those numbers are almost universally regarded as "bad," and beyond a certain point we didn't see the need to quantify the badness. Also, the vast majority of wait times fall between 25 and 105 minutes, so that's where we felt the need to concentrate.

My question is whether there is a difference in the wait times for non-headliner rides between a day when the wait for the headliners is 100 vs a day when they are 120 to 140 minutes? My thought in asking this, wouldn't more people who on those very busy days would be unwilling to stay in a line for 2 plus hours, make the lines on the other rides even longer expendentially (sp?)? In other words wouldn't you find even a bigger difference in wait times at the non-headliners between days that you currently rate a 10 vs a day you could rate a 12 or even a 14 (if you were use numbers above 10) with your new scale? Personally I wouldn't go when I knew the crowds were going to be a 10 or higher anyway, but thought this was still a good question.

 

[RevBob]

Len, I am bumping this up, in hopes that you might be able to respond to my question concerning your new crowd level scale. Thanks.

 

[luvmick]

Len, I was wondering if you had any idea why March 18 - 23 of next year is listed at all 10's. I know some may have spring breaks,but Easter is'nt till April 15th. Easter week is 7 and 8s. Is there any reason March 18th till25 th will be so busy? Thanks!!

 

[lentesta]

RevBob, yes, there's also an increase in wait times for the non-headliner attractions, too, but I think their upper limits are usually lower than the headliners.

As you suspect, I think each attraction has a "balking point" - a wait time so high that people just won't get in line. At Dumbo, for example, I don't recall a wait time over 90 minutes, so let's say 90 minutes is Dumbo's balking point. Similarly, I think all of the other Fantasyland attractions have balking points somewhere around the two hour mark. In constrast, I've seen three-hour waits at Test Track in Epcot, and I've personally seen four hour waits for Indiana Jones at Disneyland. In general, I think people will wait longer for the headliner attractions than for others.

When all of the headliner and major attractions reach their balking point, we think people end up looking for *any* attraction to ride. In this case, you see things like Haunted Mansion, Hall of Presidents, the Liberty Belle Riverboat, and Enchanted Tiki Room start to develop lines. This is one reason why we have special touring plans for holidays - you tend to see that dynamic only then.


luvmick, if I recall correctly, Tampa FL, Palm Beach FL, and Duvall County FL all have their spring break that week, and I believe it's near the peak for colleges, too. All three counties contribute a significant amount to Orlando tourism; Tampa's share is actually higher than Orlando's. I suppose some of this has to do with relative distance from WDW.

 

[ccgegg]

e.g., the 40,000 people for the Performance Racing Industries gathering)

I have never heard of this event..Is it new??...When are the dates for it???..We always go during POP week and have never had too much problems and are planning a trip this year.....I agree with Len a good plan is best the best defense...

I would like more info on this event if someone has it...thanks in advance and thanks Len for all the great work yall do...

Anyone know?

 

[pavil]

I remember looking at the website and seeing bad (7 or 8) numbers the whole time we were down there. I expected the worst seeing those numbers but boy was I presently surprised. The Crowd levels were very low in my opinion. The longest wait we had could not have been more that 20 minutes. Take the prediction with a grain of salt, but summertime crowds and waits seem longer then they are . Its sort of like the wind chill index up here in Michigan.

 

[ccgegg]

I found info on the Performance Racing Industries trade show......

1,000,000 Square Feet of exhibitor space. The 18th Annual PRI Trade Show, will be held in Orlando’s Orange County Convention Center, North/South Building, December 1-3, 2005.

Sounds like lines for Test Track could be insane.