I'm a little late to today's party. Stayed up a bit too late last night and just woke up (yes, it's almost 4pm!)
All you need to do is read this thread to see why the policy has changed. I didn't realize there were so many potential reasons to cancel an ADR at the last minute or not show.
I also don't see the big distinction so many are making in ADR hoarders & no shows. I agree the hoarders negatively affect us the customer more. From WDW's standpoint, an empty table is an empty table. It really doesn't matter to them why it's empty. The fact that it is costs them money. I'm sure they're just as interested in stopping the no shows as they are the hoarders.
The big distinction is that it's the hoarders gaming the system and causing the ADR issues, while those who miss (cancel the same day, or just don't show up) are attempting to follow the system and just have things pop up. A no show is a no show, and I'll agree with that, the bigger issues are when a single person no shows to 2-3 meals a day the entire length of their trip vs the ones that may miss one or two, or partially show up, during an entire trip. This policy affect the later group more than it affects the former group.
It seems fairly obvious to me that they only want people who will definitely show up to their ADR, unless there's a serious illness or major injury, to make them. Most who are seriously ill won't care about losing $10/person. They'll be more concerned about their sick loved one. Anyone seriously injured on WDW property won't need to worry about cancellation fees. They will be taken care of. From my many years of going to WDW with people of all ages, I don't think either of these cases happen frequently to the large majority. They're definitely the exception not the rule.
But the thing is, the minority are "seriously" sick or injured. The majority will be "minorly" sick, injured, melting down, and/or tired. I'd agree that a $10pp charge for breaking a leg getting of HM wouldn't be the first thing on your mind. But $10pp for getting the sniffles before you go to CM may very well be. It's this subset of people that will be hit by the policy more adversely than the other.
It's the people who can foresee a dozen different reasons for cancelling at the last minute or not showing that they'd rather call for an ADR or walk-up, when they're 100% sure they'll be dining there. They want to fill the tables. From a business standpoint it makes more sense to fill them will walk-ups than with people who plan to show up, but may have something come up. Reasons, other than the 2 major ones above, are why most wouldn't show or they'd cancel at the last minute. Those are things that could be planned around, if they were give the importance a financial commitment usually receives. It may not be important to you, but it is to their bottom line. I can see why they wouldn't want people committing to ADRS, if they weren't going to plan their trip to assure they would definitely be at the restaurants at the appropriate time. If a guest wants more flexibility on vacation, or foresees potential problems, it's better for Disney, if they don't make ADRs. It's better to walk up, when everyone is hungry, well rested, feels good, etc. Unfortunately, life is about choices. Everyone needs to make the responsible one for their family, even if it's not the choice you'd prefer. I know I'd like to eat at 1/2 the restaurants on every trip, but I also know my stomach won't hold that much food. I hate having to choose what to keep & what to eliminate. It's not the fun choice, but it's the responsible one. (Darn responsibilities.

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Not everyone can plan to that detail. I can't plan when I catch a cold, maybe you can, but I certainly can't. Now, if I have a bad cold I'll have to decide if I want to show up and potentially make others sick, or not show up and be charged. The same goes for the other family issues that we've presented. I know what my choice would be, sorry folks, I'm going to be passing around a cold. I'm sure families would be more apt to bring melting down and grumpy children as well (again, if it were lose money or annoy others, sorry, you're going to get annoyed).
So, now the responsible thing to do is bring sick, overstimulated, and melting down people into the restaurant, simply because canceling a few hours ahead isn't enough.
I've read several times that people think to solve the problem they should just give tables away, if there's a no show. Think about that from a financial standpoint. For every 15 minutes a table sits empty, that's a 1/4th to 1/6th of a table turn (depending on how fast one eats). Multiply that by several tables & you're bleeding money. They want the tables turned as fast as they can be cleared. If they know the people with ADRs will definitely show, they then know how many walk-ups they can accept to accomplish that.
The thing is, this IS the way it's supposed to work. Just because they don't always follow it doesn't mean that's how it works. Read the reports of people showing up late to 'Ohana NOW and you'll see that often times they were turned away or given walk-up status. Since the restaurants in question ALWAYS have a decent wait even with an ADR, means they aren't letting many (if any) tables just sit vacant solely due to no shows.
In other words, they don't hold a physical table for you if you have an ADR. They put you in a line and draw from that line. Empty tables when there's a wait for those with ADRs are not likely due to these no shows, but other reasons.
Now, if there were empty tables AND no line for those with ADRs, then it's much more likely caused by No Shows.
WDW has definitely done things in the past few years I don't agree with. In dining alone, I think the quality has declined while the prices continue to rise. To me, that's greed. However, people brought this policy change on themselves by making a commitment & not keeping it. If you don't want to commit to something 100%, you're better off not making the commitment at all. I can totally understand wanting more flexibility on vacation. Things do come up. If you can foresee that potentially happening, it probably makes more sense to book much less ADRs & do more walk-ups. If you owned the business, you could probably see you're not WDW's ideal ADR maker.
No offense to anyone.

It just seems obvious to me that WDW has probably heard the excuses given on this thread so many times they've decided they need to do something to eliminate them.
People who will not likely be affected very much brought this change on others who fully intended to use the system as it should be. Those who abused the system will barely be scratched, while those who honestly used it, only to have something come up are going to get hit. That's one of my issues with the policy. The fact that it's not addressing the problem, and penalizing those who make an honest run of it.
No offense taken. At least you aren't calling us children and stating that we want to disobey the rules

. I do agree that Disney had to do something, I just feel this policy is off the mark.
Exactly we're a family of 7 with 5 kids if someone on the plane is sick or someone in line etc. There is a high possibility that one of our kiddos will pick up a 24-48 hour bug in a 10 day trip.

We've had it happen twice in 5 trips.
My advice? Just show up sick now. That seems to be what everyone wants. If someone's screaming and melting down, show up with them anyway. The other customers will appreciate the fact that you followed the rules and showed up!
I'll need to go back to read the earlier speculation, but I think they were saying it could be closer to 48 hrs for some meals not less than 24. If it will be possible to cancel an 8 am ADR at 11 pm the night before, it won't make much of a difference with breakfast ADRs. That's not the way I understood it though. I understood it to mean at least 24 hrs. prior to ADR time.
The official policy uses the term "Full Day". In the original articles (posted throughout), those writers had called Disney and were told that "Full Day" means a full day between the cancel day and the reservation day.
So even 48 hours isn't quite right, it's more like the latest you can cancel that 7am breakfast on Thursday is at about 5:59 am on Wednesday (right before the system rolls over). However, that same deadline holds true for even a 9:30pm dinner on Thursday.
Then speak with your wallet and stop going to Disney. Or continue going and only do counter service. ADRs are not mandatory. You don't have to make them and you don't have to eat at table service. Yes, you can't get into many places without an ADR, but that's not Disney's fault for having very popular venues.
I don't understand why anyone is complaining about this new policy. If you make an ADR, stick to it. If you can't, don't make it. But if you already know or believe or expect that your child is going to become deathly ill within 45 minutes of your Le Cellier dinner, then you've got bigger problems in the world and you should probably cancel that rez right now and seek some medical help. I'm not joking. It amazes me how people are already forecasting a death in the family, an ill child, or a broken down car to prevent them from making to an ADR that they were not forced to make.
If you can't keep your promise, don't make one. There, I just solved everyone's problem. So simple. You can thank me later.
You're equating people against the policy to those who don't show up for the majority of the meals. This is just plain incorrect. We take issue that for a family destination, this hurts families more than those who cause the issue.
Again, the issues aren't so much "Deathly Ill" or "Serious Injury". I agree that a $10pp charge in those cases may be not the first thing on your mind. The issues are "Pretty Ill" or lower levels of the various things. Now it becomes "Do I take little Johnny to Le Cellier when he's miserable or melting down, or to I pay $20 (little Johnny + 1 parent) to take him back to the room?" I surely wouldn't be surprised if more people picked the former now than the latter, leading to potentially degraded experiences at all the affected restaurants.
Are you also saying that if Disney doesn't keep its promise and seat its customer (wait, what - we're the customer???) at the ADR time that the customer is due remuneration like Disney is asking for? Or do you only support one-way promise streets?
It's okay if you don't see the vendor-customer relationship, or hospitality industry expectations as some of us do. You can thank me later for highlighting that for you.
If I get charged because I decide to go for CS after waiting 30 mins past my ADR time (the wait has happened), that's going to be a problem. Maybe Disney should do the same, and give a $10pp credit every time the restaurant is over 15 minutes late! That would hold THEM accountable for their own actions as well. Of course, that'll NEVER happen. It's all personal responsibility without a thought to corporate responsibility.
I've read a majority of this thread and I still fail to see how this is going to stop people from double and triple booking. They will just cancel the ADRs they don't want right before they leave for their trip.
It's not. And that's what we take issue with. It's only going to stop families (used in a general term, since I travel solo) from deciding to cancel a reservation due to sickness, minor injury, over stimulation, and meltdowns. It'll also add undue stress to an already stressful vacation as these people are now tied to the ADRs even more via their wallet.
But, I guess the answer to not liking a policy is to simply shut up and don't go and we'll be replaced just fine. /shrug.