New BLT info - Rumors

[tfc3rid]

It all depends on where you want to stay or, if you are adding on, economic impact... I added on for a second time at SSR instead of AKV because of the Maintenenace Fees... They are significantly lower than those I pay for at BWV and BCV.

 

[TheDISneyFamily]

I really hope this info isn't true. My limit is $120/point for BLT and that's even pushing it, considering I bought most of my points at BWV for HALF of that! I'm so glad I did our last BWV add-on at the beginning of the year before the price increase, instead of saving that money for more BLT points...

I guess I'll just have to stick with my BWV Boardwalk View villas...

 

[jakenjess]

If $140 (or anywhere in the vicinity) turns out to be the price, we're out. We had actually considered waiting for the Cont. DVC before buying in, and I'm SO glad we didn't! No way we could afford 160 points there. We had been planning on 50, then when rumors of a fairly high price came around I was thinking maybe 25 or 30, but not at $140 pp. I'll take my chances at seven months at BLT and maybe try to pick up some BWV points on resale. We could always stay a couple weekend nights in a tower room with a code once in awhile for that easy walk to the MK!

 

[tfc3rid]

Keep this point in mind too though... If the price for BLT comes out to be $140, then the rest of the DVC properties would have to be sold by Disney for the same price... I don't think 2 tiers of pricing would fly, even for the 'monorail' premium...

This is why I cannot imagine it being more than $115.

 

[CarolMN]

Keep this point in mind too though... If the price for BLT comes out to be $140, then the rest of the DVC properties would have to be sold by Disney for the same price...

What makes you say that? There were different prices for AKV & SSR if you consider the different incentives. Also, the add on prices via Disney for the sold out resorts are different. I see no reason that Disney couldn't charge more for BLT than for AKV if they wanted to do so.

 

[NedsTJ]

Maybe I'm not understanding something here. When you pay up for the points by buying at BLT(hold the mayo) aren't you really paying for the 11month booking window? I can see that bringing a premium...maybe not a $40-$80 adder, but it's worth somethng, isn't it? Everyone else will need to wait for the 7 month to be able to book, which may or may not be available.

 

[ransom]

Maybe I'm not understanding something here. When you pay up for the points by buying at BLT(hold the mayo) aren't you really paying for the 11month booking window? I can see that bringing a premium...maybe not a $40-$80 adder, but it's worth somethng, isn't it? Everyone else will need to wait for the 7 month to be able to book, which may or may not be available.

Oh, it'll be available. It won't be long before those BLT'rs are swamping poor ol' SSR. You mark my words.

 

[CarolMN]

Maybe I'm not understanding something here. When you pay up for the points by buying at BLT(hold the mayo) aren't you really paying for the 11month booking window? I can see that bringing a premium...maybe not a $40-$80 adder, but it's worth somethng, isn't it? Everyone else will need to wait for the 7 month to be able to book, which may or may not be available.

Yes - you're paying for the home resort booking advantage and the annual dues level. Except for those two things, resort doesn't matter under the current DVC system. A point is a point is a point.

 

[Josh125]

A point is a point is a point.

I'll be curious to see if they change that, I hope not. Everything seems to be different with this resort, I'll be there the last week of Sept. and sure hope the models are open.

 

[snowbunny]

It's not just the initial point cost and MFs, it's also getting people to commit for 50 years at a super-premium price, in the current economy and given that oil never will go under $100/barrel again (and the whole host of issues that fact presents regarding long-term commitment to go back and forth to Florida on the part of timeshare buyers). If they were making GF a DVC, they might have a flying shot (going at a very different customer than those that have a hard time getting approved for financing). But this - no way, not going to happen at anything over $120/point.

Although there is a part of me that hopes they try it, just to see the results.

 

[tfc3rid]

It's not just the initial point cost and MFs, it's also getting people to commit to for 50 years at a super-premium price, in the current economy and given that oil never will go under $100/barrel again (and the whole host of issues that fact presents regarding long-term commitment on the part of timeshare buyers). If they were making GF a DVC, they might have a flying shot (going at a very different customer than those that cannot get approved for financing). But this - no way, not going to happen at anything over $120/point.

Although there is a part of me that hopes they try it, just to see the results.

Not sure if I'd say sub-$100 oil will never be seen... Oil is currently trading at $114 a barrel, and dropping... Will we see sub-$80 probably not but I can see sub-$100 in the coming months...

 

[snowbunny]

Not sure if I'd say sub-$100 oil will never be seen... Oil is currently trading at $114 a barrel, and dropping... Will we see sub-$80 probably not but I can see sub-$100 in the coming months...

Yes fair enough but the overall point still stands...even if gas and jet fuel decrease 20%, the American consumer earns less than he or she did 10 years ago adjusting for inflation, not even taking into account the millions of negative equity situations. DVC is dreaming if they think monorail access and 11-month booking window change basic economic truths...

 

[tfc3rid]

Yes fair enough but the overall point still stands...even if gas and jet fuel decrease 20%, the American consumer earns less than he or she did 10 years ago adjusting for inflation, not even taking into account the millions of negative equity situations. DVC is dreaming if they think monorail access and 11-month booking window change basic economic truths...

Completely agree which is why I think they will increase the price per point to $115 for selling GCV and BLT...

 

[cobbler]

Oh, it'll be available. It won't be long before those BLT'rs are swamping poor ol' SSR. You mark my words.

Ok, I must be having a blonde moment.

HUH???

 

[pilferk]

That price point is just outrageous.

We were thinking of doing enough points to do a 2 BR for one weeknight and one weekend night...it would be our "first stop" every year, something we pay cash for right now.

But not at that price.

Of course, I suspect that will be the case for most people. IF this turns out to be true (as we all know, it was firmly labeled as rumor), I think what's happened is that all the clamoring from the current (and prospective) membership who have called for a monorail DVC (or even Contemporary DVC, specifically) have made the DVC brass think they can charge a ridiculous premium on those points.

I think they're quickly going to find otherwise....and if the WHOLE building is going to be DVC...this may be the first offering where they're forced to LOWER the price in order to sell the points. Well, we all know they won't actually lower them...but that discount per point may well ramp up to $20 or $30 per point. I just can't see them selling to the "masses", given the current state of the economy especially, or in enough numbers to make it worth while, at the price being floated here.

Crazy....

 

[loribell]

I really hope in these economic times they aren't even stupid enough to try it. Sales will be very slow if they do in my opinion.

 

[wildernessDad]

I just don't see them selling BLT for $140 per point come October 1st.

This is either Tony or DC pulling our leg, or maybe DVC is just floating this rumored price of $140+ per point through the DVC community to help push AKV sales? It would certainly help them reach their sales targets for this fiscal year.

How many members would add-on at BLT at $140-$180 per point?

If it does actually happen, it would help drive up resale values.

DVC could be floating a high price so that when they come out with, hopefully, a reasonable price, people will say, "Ahh, a bargain!"

 

[tjkraz]

I really hope in these economic times they aren't even stupid enough to try it. Sales will be very slow if they do in my opinion.

But does that really matter?

Let's assume that with pricing in the $110 neighborhood things would sell out in a year. Not too far-fetched since BCV was only 1/3 smaller and sold out in just over a year. Now six years later we have a lot more members (looking to add at BLT) and DVC as a whole has become more mainstream.

So a year to sell at pricing consistent with current resorts.

Would it really be so terrible (strictly from DVC's perspective) to up the price by 30% and take 2-4 years to sell everything? They would certainly make more money--the interest lost over the longer sellout period isn't going to come close to what they would make with the premium pricing.

If BLT would be as popular as some suggest at $110 per point, even the sales logistics could be a challenge. Over the year's period that it is selling they would have to significantly ramp-up their sales team. And I'm not just talking about the front-line guides but all of the backroom people who process the paperwork, handle the financing, the closings, QA, etc. That alone is not an insignificant challenge.

With identical pricing, AKV sales could come to a virtual stand-still...and that's a building that we know will be complete next September. On the other hand, AKV would benefit as the more value-priced alternative to BLT.

Now let's think about the big picture. After the CR we have DVCs at all deluxe resorts except the GF and Poly. If the CR sells out by '09 and AKV wraps-up in '10 or '11, DVC still has thirty years before some of the '42 resorts start to bounce back for new sales.

In just 20 years they will have built SEVEN resorts at Walt Disney World--two stand-alone (OKW, SSR) one hybrid (BWV) and added-on to four other deluxes (AKV, VWL, BCV, CR). With just two more undeveloped deluxes on-site, I'd say there is at least a sliver of uncertainty in DVC's future beyond the next 8-10 years if they continue to build/price/sell at the current pace. Boutique pricing certainly strikes me as one alternative to keep the unit's revenues high while slowing its growth to some degree.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Just a side note here. It has been reported on many financial stations that the high end consumer has not stopped spending, they are being more picky. Overall consumers are STILL spending. BLT offers something new in design, and is being promoted as upscale. There is a market for this. Don't be so blinded to think that people will not pay the $180. There are ALOT of people with ALOT of money out there!

 

[Brian Noble]

Would it really be so terrible (strictly from DVC's perspective) to up the price by 30% and take 2-4 years to sell everything?

I think this boils down to how badly TWDC needs DVC to contribute to the Parks & Resorts bottom line in the next 4-8 quarters.