I will also echo the sentiments that you should buy where you love.
DVC is a LOT of money to own at your "second choice". If you want BCV (I totally understand this...I am a BCV nut!!!), please buy there!!! We bought our DVC "sight unseen", and bought BWV, VWL and OKW. We took our first trip home and knew we had bought at the wrong resorts (for us). It was a very expensive lesson to sell all our points and buy at BCV...but, we did...and we couldn't be happier.
No one knows for sure how easy/difficult it will be to get into BCV in the future. People can only give you advice for today...right now. I have seen many postings this spring commenting on how "easy" it used to be to get BCV and BWV 5-6 months out....but, no more. These posts were from long-time DVC owners who had never had difficulties before, but are having them now. I have seen others post that they have had no problems getting into BCV or BWV. I have taken 3 trips as a DVC owner, and have tried to book BCV twice...I had luck in May, but not in April. And, even May was a waitlist situation...I was just lucky that it came thru.
Another big factor in our decision to sell our other DVC's and buy at BCV was the inequities of the size of the resorts. I have posted them many times before, but I will post them again. They are (from smallest to largest...on property resorts only...appx. figures, my book is on loan to a friend):
VWL 137 accomodations
BCV 208 accomodations
BWV appx. 383 accomodations
OKW appx. 550 accomodations
SSR appx. 828 accomodations
People will debate these numbers, but this is what DVC says they have. If, during any certain year....let's just say 25% of DVC members want to try another resort instead of their own (or do not book within the 7-11 month window, and then cannot get their home), that would mean:
VWL...34.25 accomodations would be available on any given day for non-home owners.
BCV...52 accomodations would be available on any given day for non-home owners.
BWV...95.75 accomodations would be available on any given day for non-home owners.
OKW...137.50 accomodations would be available on any given day for non-home owners.
SSR...207 accomodations would be available on any given day for non-home owners.
So...if you own at SSR, but really want to try to stay at BCV at the 7 month window....assuming equal percentages of owners wish to stay at a non-home resort....well, you can see for yourself. GRANTED....before anyone gets uptight about this....my numbers are VERY hypothetical....I know that. What I am trying to show you with these numbers is, that due to the fact that some resorts are much larger than others...if you want to primarily stay at one of the smaller resorts on a regular basis....you really need to own there.
How would you feel if you shelled out the $15-20K to buy at SSR, and found that getting BCV on a regular basis was a problem? Would you be happy? Would you feel like you got your "money's worth"? If the answer is, "Sure...I'd be happy anywhere, and SSR's contract is 12 years longer", then buy SSR.
When we looked into buying SSR, I kept putting off signing the papers because I kept telling my dh "It's just so expensive". I really wanted to own BWV at the time, and he asked me..."If you were signing the papers on a BWV contract, would it be too expensive?". I replied immediately, "No." He said, "Well, then I guess SSR really IS too expensive...start looking to see if you can find a place that sells DVC resale." That's when I found these boards and they were wonderful.
All I am saying is this...you have options. You really can own at ANY DVC that you want for about the same price (sometimes resales are cheaper, sometimes they are not). It's your time, money and memories....figure out where you really want to stay and/or own...and buy there. Don't buy a resort just because it is what DVC is selling....buy what you want to buy.
Good luck,
Beca