Monorail Operating Costs and Reliability

[LeeAndRobin]

We've all seen it. The subject of the WDW monorail enters a tread, and it is only a few posts before someone inevitably says one or more of the following things:

1) The monorail is very expensive to operate.

2) The monorail breaks down (all the time, constantly, a lot).

3) It would be cheaper to replace the monorail with buses.

What is almost NEVER stated is any justification/data to back up the above statements. I'd be interested to see some data backing these statements up, if indeed there actually is any.

And to be clear, I'm interested in data. Such things as operating costs, maintenance costs, breakdown occurrences, uptime percentages, and costs to replace the monorail with buses that could carry the same volume to the same locations at the same speed (including load/unload times).

What I am not interested in are opinions unsubstantiated by any data to back them up.

Cheers,
--Lee

 

[OKW Lover]

I'm doubting that anybody besides Disney themselves has this information. I wouldn't think this was something that was published anywhere. I'll also be interested to hear of any hard information people have on this question.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Those are internal, operational numbers not available to college programmers from Snooki State College of New Jersey...

I guess my question is...how much proof can you possibly expect?

 

[LeeAndRobin]

Those are internal, operational numbers not available to college programmers from Snooki State College of New Jersey...

I guess my question is...how much proof can you possibly expect?

Actually, I don't expect any. But lots of people around here (you included) seem to believe those three statements, and keep repeating them every time the subject of the monorail comes up. My interest is in how and why those statements came about in the first place. My suspicion is that someone just made them up. Then again, I don't have any data to prove that either. However, if someone actually stated those things based on concrete data about the monorail system, I'd love to hear it.

 

[KYMickey]

I'm not sure about the three statements in the original post but I can tell you that it's significantly cheaper to buy additional buses for new routes that it is to even start planning for a new monorail! The costs to plan and installing monorail are ridiculously high! The other major disadvantage monorails is that if one breaks down on a route everything shuts down because there is no way to bypass a section of the track. Both of these are obviously major problems with monorail systems in general and the one at WDW in particular.

 

[wallrock]

I don’t recall specifically stating one of your three bullets in my arguments regarding the monorail – at least in the context of what I perceive your question to be – as I personally like them (I know, hard to believe). However I do think that finances indirectly play into what I think Disney plans on doing with them for the long term.

Beyond ticket sales Disney banks on Joe and Jane Guest to spend, spend, spend while they’re visiting and they look to cut corners where applicable to further that profitability. Bottom line is that the monorail doesn’t generate revenue and services only a fraction of the guests – two items that aren’t seen as pluses when the accountants look at the books.

I’m not sure exactly what you’re looking for in this discussion other than perhaps a “love them (shower them with praise) or hate them (bring out their faults), and if you hate them show me the data” regarding the monorails (correct me if I’m wrong). While I’ve read arguments against any possible expansion and their shortcomings, I don’t remember anyone expressing any distaste for them.

A more direct answer to your question from me would be the same as other comments – doubtful that it’s possible to get the data you seek. Much of the 'data' is probably perception and information from other sources (legit or not) on overall expenses to run a rail system, the inflexibility of route changing or adjusting the number in service to match the fluctuations in guest traffic.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I too...don't dislike monorails...they're fun...

But economically they don't make sense. They are not "heavy hitters" as far as load capacity. Part of that is the lines are short...so 3 trains don't provide much. It was a system designed for a bygone era where the property was a lot less developed and the hotel capacity was a fraction of today's.

Nobody has ever doubted the capital construction cost...it wasn't cheap in 69-71 when it was laid. Anything in Florida required massive ground work due to water table and ground instability. A plot is hard enough...now stretch it out over miles in a linear fashion. They're beams as well...it needs to match up almost perfectly and never settle. You can't eyeball those. Disney management reportedly had significant debate about the Epcot spurr...but remember that was card walker and disney's son in law. It cost a fortune but the emotions won the day...never again.

Two things really fuel my belief that they are not planning on monorails long term:

1. First, there lack of train replacement. The conditions are harsh in Florida...if you wanted to preserve the system you would be more pre-emptive...one would think.
2. My experience and research during the Eisner era. Eisners goals and fondness (which we have ZERO of now) for wdw led to the strategy of expanding and making the resort all serving...weeks worth of entertainment. Well...as they "bused up" and expanded like mad - they never once tinkered with any type of expansion of the system. Which means it's possible that the system will continue to decline in service usefulness as rooms are inevitably built elsewhere... Or it means it was too expensive to expand 30 years ago - which means the idea that they would put money into it now is laughable. Wdw was an "opportunity" then...it's a two bit cash cow now. As stated - monorails make no money...they cost it.

Two other small points: dvc conversion of the hotels allows elimination of the monorail...that will effect dvc 0.00%

Second...monorails involve stations, staff, and daily maintenance on all trains round the clock. Belchers require a driver, a pump, and a tuneup every so often. Don't think those "trivial" costs matter to disney?
Wanna bet?

 

[Shikedants]

Second...monorails involve stations, staff, and daily maintenance on all trains round the clock. Belchers require a driver, a pump, and a tuneup every so often. Don't think those "trivial" costs matter to disney?
Wanna bet?[/QUOTE]


On the other hand, there are, what, a dozen monorails, 6 monorail stations, vs (guessing) 250 busses (with drivers). I know this compares just the monorail routes vs the entire systems, but even if there were no monorails, I'd guess you'd need maybe 50 busses and drivers to replace them.

 

[LeeAndRobin]

I do like the monorails. However, the replies here so far just prove my thesis that people are just guessing about whether the monorails are economical to operate, whether Disney plans to keep them long term, etc. I also don't think they will be expanded (as much as I would like to see that happen) due to cost.

Now, I also don't have data to back up this statement, but I would be very, very surprised if it were cheaper to replace the monorail system with buses which could carry the same volume to all the same locations at the same speed.

 

[wallrock]

However, the replies here so far just prove my thesis that people are just guessing about whether the monorails are economical to operate

I’ll ask you to qualify this remark...

Are monorails economical to operate is subjective. Are they more economical to operate than other forms of transportation, which is what I’m assuming your initial question is. I think it's clear that they aren't more economical otherwise there would be a rail network all over the campus.

As far as replacing the monorails…I’ll keep saying that there is only a fraction of the guests that rely on them for travel to Epcot. Remember that boats are already in place for the resorts on the loop and the TTC to get to the Magic Kingdom. The line there is a nice to have and not a necessity. Duplicates translate into unnecessary costs, and when companies look to trim the fat those elements are always scrutinized.

Regarding your comment about guesswork, bottom line is that everything on these forums is speculation when it comes to the inner workings of the Disney company, or any other company for that matter. You can disagree with the speculations and form your own but you can’t discount the logic that some folks use to come up with theirs.

 

[OldsDr]

They could build a bridge and use the parking lot trams to get people from Poly and GF and even TTC to MK. This may sound absurd, but I am just trying to point out that there are options besides busses to eliminate the monorail.

 

[LeeAndRobin]

I’ll ask you to qualify this remark...
Are monorails economical to operate is subjective. Are they more economical to operate than other forms of transportation, which is what I’m assuming your initial question is. I think it's clear that they aren't more economical otherwise there would be a rail network all over the campus.

Nope, I think we all realize that expanding the system would be cost-prohibitive. However, the current system is already in place. Thus, the argument comes down to whether it is cheaper to keep the current system in place and maintain it or replace it with something else. Many people on here state that it would be cheaper to replace the current system, but offer NO data to back that assertion up. This is the whole point of this thread.

As far as replacing the monorails…I’ll keep saying that there is only a fraction of the guests that rely on them for travel to Epcot. Remember that boats are already in place for the resorts on the loop and the TTC to get to the Magic Kingdom. The line there is a nice to have and not a necessity. Duplicates translate into unnecessary costs, and when companies look to trim the fat those elements are always scrutinized.

You are yet again falling to to the fallacy that the only people who use the monorail are those that are actually staying at a resort on the line. Many more people who drive in to the TTC use the monorail to get to/from MK. I agree that the number using the monorail for Epcot access is much lower.

You are also implying that Disney wants to get rid of the monorail because it represents a duplication that results in extra costs. Where is the evidence of this? It is equally possible that Disney has studied the matter and found that operating the monorail is cheaper than replacing it with buses or other forms of transport.

Regarding your comment about guesswork, bottom line is that everything on these forums is speculation when it comes to the inner workings of the Disney company, or any other company for that matter. You can disagree with the speculations and form your own but you can’t discount the logic that some folks use to come up with theirs.

I could use logic to come up with any scenario regarding the monorail. However, without any data to back that reasoning up, it's meaningless. It is easy to discount logic unsupported by any facts or data whatsoever.

 

[Reddog1134]

According to this article:

http://www.gcpvd.org/2010/09/17/why-a-monorail-is-better-than-a-streetcar/

A monorail costs 70% less to operate than a streetcar.

A bus costs 30% less to operate than a streetcar.

So a monorail would have less than half the operating cost of a bus.

 

[wallrock]

Nope, I think we all realize that expanding the system would be cost-prohibitive. However, the current system is already in place. Thus, the argument comes down to whether it is cheaper to keep the current system in place and maintain it or replace it with something else. Many people on here state that it would be cheaper to replace the current system, but offer NO data to back that assertion up. This is the whole point of this thread.

The key word here is replace…There is no need to replace anything. Guests staying on the resort loop can use boats to get to the Magic Kingdom, or in the case of the Contemporary, walking is an option. High volume boats have been used often when the monorails are out of service. Point being, commerce doesn’t stop when the monorails do. If the alternative exists now to address the problem then why not exist permanently?

You are yet again falling to to the fallacy that the only people who use the monorail are those that are actually staying at a resort on the line. Many more people who drive in to the TTC use the monorail to get to/from MK. I agree that the number using the monorail for Epcot access is much lower.

Again only a fraction of the guests do so. You can’t tell me that guests at any of the values, moderates, campground or other deluxes – which constitutes the bulk of guests – take transportation to the TTC and ride the monorail to the Magic Kingdom when a bus option exists to take them directly there. To your point about providing solid data, I’d like to see real numbers – keeping in mind that that there is a large number that take the ferry across the lake. Also consider that when the monorail doesn't work those crowds don't sit at the TTC and do nothing - Disney already has buses in place to get them to the gate. Back to my earlier comment, if the alternative exists now then why not on a permanent basis?

You are also implying that Disney wants to get rid of the monorail because it represents a duplication that results in extra costs. Where is the evidence of this? It is equally possible that Disney has studied the matter and found that operating the monorail is cheaper than replacing it with buses or other forms of transport.

Not to be blunt, but the evidence is staring right at you and has been stated multiple times. No monorail from the Grand Floridian? Take a boat. Polynesian? Same goes there. Contemporary? Boat or walk. If you are trying to get to one of the other resorts then wait for the bus that connects all three (started just last year if memory serves and one of my cornerstones in believing that Disney has considered dumping the monorail). In my comment I stated that the only true monorail dependency is from the three resorts to Epcot. Everything else has an alternative that’s already in place.

I could use logic to come up with any scenario regarding the monorail. However, without any data to back that reasoning up, it's meaningless. It is easy to discount logic unsupported by any facts or data whatsoever.

I think you’re taking the comment too literally. If I’m at work and I hear rain outside I can deduct that my car is most likely wet. Do I have solid data to back that up? Nope, but feel free to argue the point. If there is a duplication - and based on what I see there is duplication - of service going on can I deduct that Disney is or has pondered removing one of those duplicates.

 

[LeeAndRobin]

The key word here is replace…There is no need to replace anything. Guests staying on the resort loop can use boats to get to the Magic Kingdom, or in the case of the Contemporary, walking is an option. High volume boats have been used often when the monorails are out of service. Point being, commerce doesn’t stop when the monorails do. If the alternative exists now to address the problem then why not exist permanently?

Again only a fraction of the guests do so. You can’t tell me that guests at any of the values, moderates, campground or other deluxes – which constitutes the bulk of guests – take transportation to the TTC and ride the monorail to the Magic Kingdom when a bus option exists to take them directly there. To your point about providing solid data, I’d like to see real numbers – keeping in mind that that there is a large number that take the ferry across the lake. Also consider that when the monorail doesn't work those crowds don't sit at the TTC and do nothing - Disney already has buses in place to get them to the gate. Back to my earlier comment, if the alternative exists now then why not on a permanent basis?

Not to be blunt, but the evidence is staring right at you and has been stated multiple times. No monorail from the Grand Floridian? Take a boat. Polynesian? Same goes there. Contemporary? Boat or walk. If you are trying to get to one of the other resorts then wait for the bus that connects all three (started just last year if memory serves and one of my cornerstones in believing that Disney has considered dumping the monorail). In my comment I stated that the only true monorail dependency is from the three resorts to Epcot. Everything else has an alternative that’s already in place.

The monorails service 100,000 -> 150,000 guest trips/day. I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to calculate how many buses that equals. One thing that is clearly NOT true is that "only a fraction of the guests use the monorail". While technically true, since the definition of a fraction is any amount less than 100%, the fraction is high, not low. To continue to repeat that the monorail only services a small fraction of the guests is simply incorrect.

 

[hopeful4fl]

LeeAndRobin,
With no true data points, all this is speculation.
It is not only the "tangibles" that dictate the need for Monorail. The C level at Disney have a good understanding of the value monorail provides.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

They could build a bridge and use the parking lot trams to get people from Poly and GF and even TTC to MK. This may sound absurd, but I am just trying to point out that there are options besides busses to eliminate the monorail.

That's actually a ridiculously good option...

And if they did it on the side where the TTC currently sits...they would in no way block the high prices views of PRECIOUS for the poly and the grandiose

Never though of that

 

[lockedoutlogic]

According to this article:

http://www.gcpvd.org/2010/09/17/why-a-monorail-is-better-than-a-streetcar/

A monorail costs 70% less to operate than a streetcar.

A bus costs 30% less to operate than a streetcar.

So a monorail would have less than half the operating cost of a bus.

Couple things...

That's in a specific, urban environment...where many more factors are in play... Such as property maintenance and acquisition, security, union labor, etc.

Second, the wdw system is not a "light monorail"...it's actually maybe the heaviest one you'll find...as opposed to airport shuttles and some on college campuses.

Light rail would be way cheaper than Maintaining the current system.

And third...part of the advantage to the buses over monorails... And a non-quantifiable cost savings is the flexibility of them. As stated - the monorails serves a fraction of the rooms and guest areas
On property... It's not incredibly useful. If the used the TTC as a true "TTC"...them Maybe. But they've all but eliminated its use for distribution.
Also, the monorail have no flexibility to adjust to situations... It's a static system...

Middle of the day and nobody going anyway? 3 trains.
2 am on 1/1? 3 trains.

 

[wallrock]

The monorails service 100,000 -> 150,000 guest trips/day. I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to calculate how many buses that equals. One thing that is clearly NOT true is that "only a fraction of the guests use the monorail". While technically true, since the definition of a fraction is any amount less than 100%, the fraction is high, not low. To continue to repeat that the monorail only services a small fraction of the guests is simply incorrect.

To your original point of the thread - what's your data source? Based on Theme and Museum Index reporting the Orlando campus had roughly 50 million visitors in 2013, or 137K per day. Given that 90 percent of the hotel rooms two of the four theme parks aren't connected to a monorail and are serviced by a bus, walking or watercraft I'd be interested in the source of those figures.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

To your original point of the thread - what's your data source? Based on Theme and Museum Index reporting the Orlando campus had roughly 50 million visitors in 2013, or 137K per day. Given that 90 percent of the hotel rooms two of the four theme parks aren't connected to a monorail and are serviced by a bus, walking or watercraft I'd be interested in the source of those figures.

Yeah... Since you brought it up...

Those number are off by at least 50%

Contrary to perception...75% of travelers are not in magic kingdom...

It's statistically about 37-38%...

So we'll assume 40 - or around 56,000 daily based on the daily average.

So you take that... Add the transfer business from EPCOT, and the 600 or so rooms/330 villas from contemp, 800 or so (previllas) from poly, 600+ villas from GF worth of visitors...

Subtract boat travels, walkers from contemp, and ALL THE BUS VISITORS FROM ALL OTHER HOTELS...

And what is your real number? 50,000...being generous.

So the estimate was only off by 100-200%

Of course some days are much higher...many more are much lower

The monorails, while important, are NOT work horses. They are incredibly important in the morning and two times at night...but other than that they are more or less scenery

They're there...we love em...but are they immune from the axe permenantly?

No...I can't find enough reason to justify that stance.