Memorial Day Re-Opening ?

[Darklord77]

social media suggests a lot more

Are people falsely claiming they have it?

I would go ahead and trust your health department (even if they are really incompetent) over any social media sites. The people posting on social media are the same people who almost caused our national currency to become toilet paper.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

Wow it is really upsetting to me to think the schools may be done for the year. My oldest grandchild is in 2nd grade and as far as I know his school hasn't been conducting classes online to date. I think if this is going to continue they will have to do that or these children won't have learned what they need to move onto the next grade. Very upsetting to me.

I live in NJ and yesterday the governor put us in lockdown for an indefinite time. For the past two weeks we have been doing this without the order, only going out for needed items. I have heard the question raised that once all these quarantine are over won't the virus still be out there? I'm guessing the answer to that question is YES. Then what, for how long do we shut down?

 

[DebbieB]

I hope it happens. I have a 4/19-25 DVC Riviera that I am waiting to cancel (Current points). My friends and I booked a backup for 5/31 to 6/6. My friend has points that will expire 5/31, so she booked 1 night in a treehouse. Then we booked POP on cash since there’s no DVC availability.

 

[heynowirv]

Wow it is really upsetting to me to think the schools may be done for the year. My oldest grandchild is in 2nd grade and as far as I know his school hasn't been conducting classes online to date. I think if this is going to continue they will have to do that or these children won't have learned what they need to move onto the next grade. Very upsetting to me.

I live in NJ and yesterday the governor put us in lockdown for an indefinite time. For the past two weeks we have been doing this without the order, only going out for needed items. I have heard the question raised that once all these quarantine are over won't the virus still be out there? I'm guessing the answer to that question is YES. Then what, for how long do we shut down?

This virus will probably be a part of us like HIV ,Ebobla and H1N1 not to mention the flu bug.What will change I believe is how we deal with it for the future.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think if this is going to continue they will have to do that or these children won't have learned what they need to move onto the next grade. Very upsetting to me.

If the schools stay closed all will advance and they will adjust lesson plans to get everyone back on track. This isn't one child missing a bunch of school. It's all the kids.

Disney is doing 2 weeks at a time to relieve stress on the phone lines and website.

 

[smjj]

I have no idea when they will re-open as no one here does. My best guess would be within the next 4 to 5 weeks. I only say that based on my opinion that the businesss large and small, restaurants, chains and locally owned, theme parks, cruise lines, airlines and everything I can think of just can't last past this time period. By then the the quarantines self imposed or government ordered will have been in place several weeks and hopefully the curve they are talking about will be flattened by then...smjj..ºoº

 

[tjkraz]

I already rescheduled trip planned for Memorial Day weekend. We only have a limited amount of time to travel due to kids' school and sports schedules. Summer availability will only get progressively worse with each spring closure. By switching now, we were able to turn a BWV+BLT trip in May into a Riviera+BLT trip in July. Weather will be hotter in July but we were able to mirror most of our dining reservations and other plans. Plus airfare is dirt cheap in July.

Stinks that we'll have to wait 2 more months for vacation, but hopefully WDW will be running smoothly.

 

[Donna M]

I think the big game changer will be when the treatment drug is found and able to be produced in mass quantities. We aren't safe out in public till that happens. Sounds like a vaccine will be ready next year. The scientists and doctors around the world are working together on this like never before.
We will get to WDW, we need to stay optimistic for our mental health. It's fun to plan trips even if we don't have a date yet. Stay safe, we'll get through this.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I’m going to place bets on the beginning of May. Once the weather warms, there will be a dramatic decline in cases. There will also be a dramatic decline in cases because most people will have been exposed by then. I personally think more than 50% of the US population has already been exposed. It doesn’t effect the majority. It’s been rolling through since February and continues to roll through whether we social distance or not.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

We are roughly two weeks to three weeks behind Italy, and they are in full lockdown at this point. So that is one estimator you can use.

 

[Ben E N]

We are roughly two weeks to three weeks behind Italy, and they are in full lockdown at this point. So that is one estimator you can use.

First day today of not increasing the number of deaths or cases over the previous day. Only one day of data, but all patterns have to start somewhere. If it continues to trend downward, that could give us some sort of idea on a potential timeframe.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

We are roughly two weeks to three weeks behind Italy, and they are in full lockdown at this point. So that is one estimator you can use.

I wonder about that. I realize I am a nobody (lol) but I think the USA is completely different from Italy. This virus was in China as of last November and no restrictions were put on Chinese travel into the US until late January. Other travel restrictions even more recently. Millions of people travel back and forth from China alone every year. [ Latest US -international air transportation stats: https://www.transportation.gov/site...ssenger-and-freight-statistics-march-2019.pdf ].
I think the virus has been here and spread earlier than people think by 2-3 weeks. One of the reasons why I think that is we received emails from our school district about 5 days ago saying that three separate people from different schools, no relation, no travel history, had been diagnosed with Covid 19, two with symptoms a week before even getting tested. We live in a remote area in a state with not many cases. There is no way that those cases were isolated— it has to be that so many people experience little to no symptoms. I have also spoken with people in our area who said they had a lot of the covid 19 symptoms a few weeks ago but wrote it off as a cold. I also found it really interesting that the health commissioner in New Jersey said that everyone will end up getting it. To me that means that it is so widespread already that it is just everywhere. Luckily, the number of people who become gravely ill is small compared to the general population.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

If the schools stay closed all will advance and they will adjust lesson plans to get everyone back on track. This isn't one child missing a bunch of school. It's all the kids.

Disney is doing 2 weeks at a time to relieve stress on the phone lines and website.

You certainly do seem to be knowledgeable on a vast number of subjects here on the Disboards. Obviously this isn't about one child, that being said I think that if the schools were to remain closed to the end of the regular school year it wouldn't be that easy to jam three months of classes into the following year. How much time would it take to have the students reach the place they should have been at the end of this year to successfully complete the following years work (exp 2nd grade going into 3rd)?

I think a better plan might be to have the schools conduct classes over the summer months so they are ready for the upcoming school year. This would also help all those parents who have to work outside of the home and who have school aged childcare. I know school isn't supposed to be thought of as childcare but it does help with the care of children for a good part of the work day. This is a very unusual situation that calls for unusual solutions.

I just heard the president saying he would like to see us opened for business by Easter. I think it would be great if that would happen and I'm sure I'm not alone. It appears that the death rate between yesterday (1.38%) and today (1.27%) has gone down here in the USA based on the numbers being shown on TV. This is only a one day snapshot but it is encouraging. The other side of the coin is that the recovery rate is 98% or slightly higher. We don't really know what the exact numbers are since not everyone who thinks they may have the virus are able to get tested because they aren't in an "at risk" group of our population. This could potential further reduce the death rate, that would be very good news indeed! I for one hope we are starting to turn the curve and the light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter each day.

Stay safe and healthy everyone.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

You certainly do seem to be knowledgeable on a vast number of subjects here on the Disboards. Obviously this isn't about one child, that being said I think that if the schools were to remain closed to the end of the regular school year it wouldn't be that easy to jam three months of classes into the following year.

Well, obviously. But my point is that holding everyone back a grade into next year just isn't going to happen and they're going to probably extend the next school year to help compensate, or extend school days by 30-45 minutes per day. You otherwise create a flow mess. Where do all the incoming K kids go in fall if all the existing K kids stay in K? Even if you let the HS seniors go, those teachers don't just reassign to K! (Such different skill sets.)

It appears that the death rate between yesterday (1.38%) and today (1.27%) has gone down here in the USA based on the numbers being shown on TV.

If infection rate continues to accelerate, maintaining a low rate depends on (a) expanding testing and (b) ensuring that care can be provided. The big issue with "opening for business!" is that when a business has 20% or more of their staff out due to illness, it will also wreck the economy, and likely lead to 2% or higher death rates.

The problem with percentages is that they're impersonal. "Only 2%!" But, think through 100 of your family and friends. Name them. That's the percent in action. 2 are highly likely to die.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

Well, obviously. But my point is that holding everyone back a grade into next year just isn't going to happen and they're going to probably extend the next school year to help compensate, or extend school days by 30-45 minutes per day. You otherwise create a flow mess. Where do all the incoming K kids go in fall if all the existing K kids stay in K? Even if you let the HS seniors go, those teachers don't just reassign to K! (Such different skill sets.)



If infection rate continues to accelerate, maintaining a low rate depends on (a) expanding testing and (b) ensuring that care can be provided. The big issue with "opening for business!" is that when a business has 20% or more of their staff out due to illness, it will also wreck the economy, and likely lead to 2% or higher death rates.

The problem with percentages is that they're impersonal. "Only 2%!" But, think through 100 of your family and friends. Name them. That's the percent in action. 2 are highly likely to die.

Really??? Nobody said to hold them back they should hold classes during the summer. If their going to extend the school year next year why not start this summer? Why would we want kids to be out of classes for 5.5 months? Again unusual times call for unusual measures.

Depending on where you look we have 200,000 cases of the flue and 30,000 deaths each year from the flue but we don't close down the whole country for that...just sayin.

Not trying to make this personal and not making light of anyone dying but it is the realty of life. Are the people who die each year any less important?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

why not start this summer

Because the virus is still going to be ripping a hole in society all summer long this year.

The reason flatten the curve is a thing is because if everyone ends up sick at once, the death rate increases rapidly.

Let's use Butte MT as an example, which has ~35k people. If 70% (WHO estimate) contract coronavirus, that's 24,500 people. If 5% of the infected require hospitalization, that's 1225. If 2% require the ICU, that's 490 ICU patients. If 1% of the infected need a ventilator, that's 245 needing a ventilator.

You will perhaps not be overly surprised to hear that Butte has under 100 hospital beds locally, and serves a lot of the surrounding area.

The faster the spread, the thinner the resources.

It is unrealistic to expect "normalcy" any time soon. Even if everyone goes back to work, Disney World opens, etc. Viral spread is going to preclude normal. If 20% of the teachers in a school fall ill, that's not going to support getting kids "back to level" at pace.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

But you don't really know, this is all speculation at this point. Nobody really knows. Simple as that.

Again what about the flue? Why not the same level of panic and concern? Because it's been around for awhile and we have grown used to those statics? Not sure that's a good enough reason.

 

[holden]

We have a Disney cruise and WDW trip planned for the end of July. I'm not expecting to actually go. I think Disney will cancel them.

We are really just at the beginning of this.

 

[Brett Wyman]

Until Japan opens back up we arent even close.

 

[Ben E N]

But you don't really know, this is all speculation at this point. Nobody really knows. Simple as that.

Again what about the flue? Why not the same level of panic and concern? Because it's been around for awhile and we have grown used to those statics? Not sure that's a good enough reason.

There is already herd immunity to influenza (the flu) and a vaccine is available that is pretty effective. Once enough people have comfortably overcome this coronavirus (almost 90% can handle it without much issue), and once a vaccine is available, then we can go back to normal life.
Unfortunately, until that time, we have to assume that everyone, including ourselves, are sick. Getting people together in large crowds under those circumstances just can't happen.