May 2024 Direct Sales Up


You have peaked my curiosity. Care to elaborate?
They ran themselves straight out of OKW points. I think they would have preferred to sell them at least somewhat more slowly and at a higher price. Even if they’d sold at half the pace, they still would have run out of points by the end of the offer period.

So I do think they will continue to offer rotating promotions on various sold out resorts, which they have done for several years now, but I think they will get much much shallower.
 
They ran themselves straight out of OKW points. I think they would have preferred to sell them at least somewhat more slowly and at a higher price. Even if they’d sold at half the pace, they still would have run out of points by the end of the offer period.

So I do think they will continue to offer rotating promotions on various sold out resorts, which they have done for several years now, but I think they will get much much shallower.
Yeahhh it doesn't make sense for them to try and burn through all of their older points and get people in for cheap when they're still trying to sell RIV, VDH, CFW and Poly soon at high prices. The goal is to maximize profit, not sell out of points ASAP.

Somehow OKW always benefits from these one time things. OKW being the only resort to ever be extended, incentives bringing OKW direct down to like 105 per point when every actively selling resort is at minimum going for 150 per point after incentives (too lazy to look up direct AUL incentives).
 
They ran themselves straight out of OKW points. I think they would have preferred to sell them at least somewhat more slowly and at a higher price. Even if they’d sold at half the pace, they still would have run out of points by the end of the offer period.

So I do think they will continue to offer rotating promotions on various sold out resorts, which they have done for several years now, but I think they will get much much shallower.
And OKW has the 2042 vs 2057 conundrum going for it
 
I took the over on OKW outselling CFW by 10x….
I thought this was an extremely aggressive prediction at the time but you turned out to be a bit conservative. 😳 Nicely done.

I took the liberty of dividing total points sold by number of contracts and was absolutely FLOORED to realize that the mean contract was ~185– which suggests to me that the median contract was probably at or very close to 150. The deal was still decent at 150 IIRC but it was so much better at/over $300. Congrats to everyone here who saw this as a blue card opportunity and then immediately got rewarded with a summer of free ice cream and bonus character greetings. 🥰

I think we all assumed that they were moving inventory at the 300+ contract level pricing, but it sure sounds like just discounting to the higher 150 point price was enough to move inventory.
 
And OKW has the 2042 vs 2057 conundrum going for it

I thought this was an extremely aggressive prediction at the time but you turned out to be a bit conservative. 😳 Nicely done.

I took the liberty of dividing total points sold by number of contracts and was absolutely FLOORED to realize that the mean contract was ~185– which suggests to me that the median contract was probably at or very close to 150. The deal was still decent at 150 IIRC but it was so much better at/over $300. Congrats to everyone here who saw this as a blue card opportunity and then immediately got rewarded with a summer of free ice cream and bonus character greetings. 🥰

I think we all assumed that they were moving inventory at the 300+ contract level pricing, but it sure sounds like just discounting to the higher 150 point price was enough to move inventory.
Putting these two thoughts together, it seems possible that, if Disney can find the right level of
ROFR to avoid raising the resale cost OKW too much, they may just continue then to cycle building OKW points up and then unloading them - probably not at $115, but if they took the offer they made this time out, reduced it slightly, and then just didn’t offer anything better than the 250 point offer, they might have a nice way of converting 2042s on their hands.
 
I thought this was an extremely aggressive prediction at the time but you turned out to be a bit conservative. 😳 Nicely done.

I took the liberty of dividing total points sold by number of contracts and was absolutely FLOORED to realize that the mean contract was ~185– which suggests to me that the median contract was probably at or very close to 150. The deal was still decent at 150 IIRC but it was so much better at/over $300. Congrats to everyone here who saw this as a blue card opportunity and then immediately got rewarded with a summer of free ice cream and bonus character greetings. 🥰

I think we all assumed that they were moving inventory at the 300+ contract level pricing, but it sure sounds like just discounting to the higher 150 point price was enough to move inventory.
I think the majority will have been at the 300+ level, but split in to smaller deeds so as to still qualify for the deeper discounts perhaps.
 
I think the majority will have been at the 300+ level, but split in to smaller deeds so as to still qualify for the deeper discounts perhaps.
Excellent point. I don’t actually know how they tally the chart (the article author seemed to know when buyers were splitting into multiple contracts), but it would make sense if 185 is actually what happens when savvy DVCers are buying 300+ split in 3 or more contracts.
 
…The deal was still decent at 150 IIRC but it was so much better at/over $300…
Sure was! The party really got started at 1000+.

I think the majority will have been at the 300+ level, but split in to smaller deeds so as to still qualify for the deeper discounts perhaps.
I made it into the article doing it that way: The largest multiple deed purchase was 1,400 Old Key West points split between four 250-point deeds and four 100-point deeds.

… I don’t actually know how they tally the chart (the article author seemed to know when buyers were splitting into multiple contracts)…
They must have someone on staff combing through the recorded deeds and noting when the buyers are the same person.
 
Yikes is right! It'll be interesting to see what dvc does with the marketing of this resort to address the abysmal sales. There has to be some yet unveiled plan.
I’m ready for River Country 2.0 :p

I have to wonder though if this will discourage DVC from further foraying into the moderate resort world seeing how poorly sales are going but again maybe they don’t care since they can sell them for cash..? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 



















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