May 2022 Direct Sales drop

[Sandisw]

I definitely agree with this. We love the look/feel of RIV. I guess from a DVC product as a whole, I feel like any restrictions deplete the overall value of the product. I think that the true value of DVC comes with the flexibility and variety. If they are going to move the product to the more traditional TS model then I think it will become less appealing overall.

Well, the restrictions are only for buying resale. If you buy direct, it is the same product as always in terms of the use. So, really, you can still get the same value as you always have...if you want that flexibility for any and all resorts...by simply buying from DVD.

In terms of resale value? For some it is important and in that sense, they may see it being more like a regular time share. But, as long as WDW parks exist, DVC contracts will always be worth something...as I have shared many times, we did not use a resale value as part of the mix when deciding. We figure its about our use and why direct is worth it in the end because we want to use our points everywhere...although, RIV and VGF are pretty much it now that we have experienced all but OKW.

Of course, I have benefited from a strong resale market by being able to sell and buy elsewhere, so I can't complain. But, had I not, my holdings and bank account would just look differently right now! LOL

 

[AvidDisReader]

At the risk of being redundant, these numbers IF continued will support my opinion that the new Poly tower will be part of the existing Poly. At the current pace of 77K points a month, RIV will take 4 years to sell out whereas the new GFV should be sold out in around 12 months. I do not believe DVD will want 2 resorts selling at the same time with Resale restrictions. Look for the next resort after Poly to have Resale restrictions.

 

[Sandisw]

At the risk of being redundant, these numbers IF continued will support my opinion that the new Poly tower will be part of the existing Poly. At the current pace of 77K points a month, RIV will take 4 years to sell out whereas the new GFV should be sold out in around 12 months. I do not believe DVD will want 2 resorts selling at the same time with Resale restrictions. Look for the next resort after Poly to have Resale restrictions.

I actually think if they want to keep the restrictions...selling both with them will be a big plus....as I said, I think it will take a lot of them to change course, but at least they have two active selling resorts at WDW to use to help make a better decision...assuming they want to make a different decision.

I think it comes down to how DVD wants to look at things. Do they want to find ways to remove them? Or, do they want to hold on to them? If they want to hold on to them, they will always be looking for the positive aspect of the numbers...ie: that the loss of VGF sales in May was a greater % than the loss of RIV.

Of course, they don't have to put Poly tower in to PVB, even if they remove restrictions...they could still decide it can be a new resort like CCV/BRV.

 

[hglenn]

Well, the restrictions are only for buying resale. If you buy direct, it is the same product as always in terms of the use. So, really, you can still get the same value as you always have...if you want that flexibility for any and all resorts...by simply buying from DVD.

Yes, that's very true... And, that's what DVD ultimately wants to encourage/protect...

 

[wnielsen1]

At the risk of being redundant, these numbers IF continued will support my opinion that the new Poly tower will be part of the existing Poly. At the current pace of 77K points a month, RIV will take 4 years to sell out whereas the new GFV should be sold out in around 12 months. I do not believe DVD will want 2 resorts selling at the same time with Resale restrictions. Look for the next resort after Poly to have Resale restrictions.

Maybe they will have both selling with restrictions. Perhaps that's why they continue to load up on SSR and AKV through ROFR.

 

[AvidDisReader]

I actually think if they want to keep the restrictions...selling both with them will be a big plus....as I said, I think it will take a lot of them to change course, but at least they have two active selling resorts at WDW to use to help make a better decision...assuming they want to make a different decision.

I think it comes down to how DVD wants to look at things. Do they want to find ways to remove them? Or, do they want to hold on to them? If they want to hold on to them, they will always be looking for the positive aspect of the numbers...ie: that the loss of VGF sales in May was a greater % than the loss of RIV.

Of course, they don't have to put Poly tower in to PVB, even if they remove restrictions...they could still decide it can be a new resort like CCV/BRV.

So in your opinion they would risk having 2 resorts with sluggish sales due to Resale restrictions??? Again I do not agree with your logic.

 

[Sandisw]

So in your opinion they would risk having 2 resorts with sluggish sales due to Resale restrictions??? Again I do not agree with your logic.

Except, RIV sales have been up and down and when you make a new product that is different, you have to expect that your sales will be different. If you are playing the long game, then yes, you may need to realize it will take longer to sell things like this than if you don't.

And, they have the power to change things up to increase sales...put in better incentives...which they just did. So, maybe they decide to price it lower and keep restrictions for the short term, make less now, as a way to set up the program so that in 2042, they can bring those resorts all back as new with restrictions?

DVD never seems to do what makes logical sense to the rest of us and how we interpret the data may not be the way that they see the data. Who knows? I just don't see the logic for them to make Poly tower part of PVB IF they want resale and direct points to be different....as restrictions are the only way to achieve that...

 

[kilik64]

Eh I dont think this points to anything concrete regarding resale restrictions. Flagship monorail near MK vs Old Lady Resort (tm) on Skyliner? I think even if RIV didnt have the restrictions the numbers would be pretty close to what they are right now.

IF DVD reads it different and does decide to remove the RIV resale restrictions, how would that even work? Would they let anyone with a resale contract that wasnt already grandfathered in book there and then let anyone who bought a RIV resale contract now book the O14 as well? I cant imagine the IT would get that right at all...

 

[RKS03]

I’m not sure why it would be Disney’s goal to sell one resort with restrictions and one without at all times. If they’re moving to restrictions as they have it’s better to act like it’s the new model and not highlight the feature people don’t like by having an option available without it. Personally I’m not a fan but if they’re moving forward, it doesn’t make sense to keep offering new resorts without it.

 

[kilik64]

I’m not sure why it would be Disney’s goal to sell one resort with restrictions and one without at all times. If they’re moving to restrictions as they have it’s better to act like it’s the new model and not highlight the feature people don’t like by having an option available without it. Personally I’m not a fan but if they’re moving forward, it doesn’t make sense to keep offering new resorts without it.

Depends on your definition of "New". DLT will give everyone the answer they are looking for regarding restrictions as it'll be the first New new resort since RIV. That should be done next year?

 

[RKS03]

Depends on your definition of "New". DLT will give everyone the answer they are looking for regarding restrictions as it'll be the first New new resort since RIV. That should be done next year?

I hope I’m wrong as I believe if all new resorts have restrictions it may make it more difficult to resort hop.

 

[hglenn]

Depends on your definition of "New". DLT will give everyone the answer they are looking for regarding restrictions as it'll be the first New new resort since RIV. That should be done next year?

I disagree. I don't think you can compare DLT to any of the WDW resorts... look at the current pricing. VGC is already a $100 more than any other WDW resort - even on the resale market. And it's impossible to get at 7 months so resale contracts are scooped up pretty quickly. IMO, DLT can have all the restrictions and a $300pp price tag and it'll still sell...

 

[Sandisw]

I disagree. I don't think you can compare DLT to any of the WDW resorts... look at the current pricing. VGC is already a $100 more than any other WDW resort - even on the resale market. And it's impossible to get at 7 months so resale contracts are scooped up pretty quickly. IMO, DLT can have all the restrictions and a $300pp price tag and it'll still sell...

It could…but, if they put restrictions on it, regardless of it being different, it still gives insight that restrictions have not been abandoned.

Now, that doesn’t guarantee that Poly tower will get them…but it certainly does mean it remains in play,

If VDH doesn’t have them, then we have pretty strong info they are changing direction.

 

[disneyfan123]

I hope I’m wrong as I believe if all new resorts have restrictions it may make it more difficult to resort hop.

Only for those with resale point. It will recalibrate the whole financial analysis around SAP. This was a big reason we bought into VGF2 when they first announced it, as we paid virtually the current resale price for direct points (200 point contract for $186/point), making it a good deal in our eyes that will always allow us to book at any resort. Our SSR points are restricted to the O14.

 

[BeachClub2014]

So in your opinion they would risk having 2 resorts with sluggish sales due to Resale restrictions??? Again I do not agree with your logic.

I would be really interested to see any direct evidence or actual metric that ties restrictions on resale points to the sale, or lack thereof, of directly sold points. A whole load of assumptions is made that the restrictions on Riviera resale points are hindering direct sales. Where's the evidence?

 

[RKS03]

Only for those with resale point. It will recalibrate the whole financial analysis around SAP. This was a big reason we bought into VGF2 when they first announced it, as we paid virtually the current resale price for direct points (200 point contract for $186/point), making it a good deal in our eyes that will always allow us to book at any resort. Our SSR points are restricted to the O14.

I did the same thing with regard to VGF2, but if new resort buyers are less likely to resort hop as a result of restrictions, then it’ll be harder for us too to have access to those resorts. Now some have argued that we’d have less competition from other 7 month bookers with resale restrictions who cannot reserve the new resorts so I could be wrong.

 

[NVDISFamily]

As someone who is in active buy mode I can say that resale restrictions at Riviera and likely future restrictions at VDH are a strong factor in my decision on what to buy. Id rather just have a good bucket at VGC and a few points at VGF as I feel they are a safer bet in the long run if I have to sell some or all of my points.

With how the economy is going now I would not be surprised if VDH has to sell closer to low 200s and high 100s (if you buy a big enough contract) to sell quickly. If I had more info and some feeling that they would not have (or remove) the restrictions then I would love to buy Riviera (due to the contract length and we like the look of the rooms) or VDH (to mix up our cali trips or just have more fun with family).

 

[hglenn]

Where's the evidence?

There is no evidence. It's all speculation. If anyone had any true insight on DVC/DVD, half of the threads here wouldn't exist!

 

[Paul Stupin]

So in your opinion they would risk having 2 resorts with sluggish sales due to Resale restrictions??? Again I do not agree with your logic.

There’s the flaw in your reasoning. You’re assuming that resale restrictions are causing sluggish sales, and since VGF2 is doing marginally better, you’re assuming that’s because it doesn’t have resale restrictions. Do you have any actual proof? Frankly, I don’t think new buyers care at all.

VGF2 is more iconic and arguably a better location. Riviera is more polarizing because of its understated theming and, arguably, problematic location. I think these are the main factors driving sales, or lack thereof, which you don’t seem to acknowledge at all.

 

[sndral]

Eh I dont think this points to anything concrete regarding resale restrictions. Flagship monorail near MK vs Old Lady Resort (tm) on Skyliner? I think even if RIV didnt have the restrictions the numbers would be pretty close to what they are right now.

IF DVD reads it different and does decide to remove the RIV resale restrictions, how would that even work? Would they let anyone with a resale contract that wasnt already grandfathered in book there and then let anyone who bought a RIV resale contract now book the O14 as well? I cant imagine the IT would get that right at all...

I‘m leaning towards thinking that most nonmembers who walk into a DVC sales center know little to nothing about resale restrictions & likely aren’t thinking about possibly selling their points some day (sort of like you don’t think about your possible divorce on your wedding day,) or if they have thought of exit strategy & done some research so far RVA’s resale numbers look ok, which suggests that despite RVA’s cheaper price & longer contract a not insignificant majority of buyers like VGF better. If that be the case, then VGF selling faster than RVA despite RVA’s longer contract & cheaper price isn’t going to trigger a resale restriction reversal because the difference in sales is driven by the simple fact that more people like the VGF enough to pay more to own there.
Although we don’t have access to the numbers, I’m sure DVC has analyzed the data on who’s buying VGF v. RVA & whether one sells better to members (who likely know about resale restriction) v. nonmembers (who likely don’t.) But unless they start conducting exit surveys asking buyers why they chose one resort over the other I’m not sure even the data they have tells them the number of potential sales they are losing due to resale restrictions.