Marathon Weekend Weather

[cewait]

I don't see an hour-by-hour at weather.com, but they've dropped precip chance for Saturday to 30%.

It's too early for the hour by hour.

Note that our Houston forecast has a front coming through on Wednesday night/Thursday Morning that could be the deepest freeze we have had in a decade.

Yea the fleas will die - boo this is what the weather models are trying to determine how it will impact FL

 

[liznboys]

I don't see an hour-by-hour at weather.com, but they've dropped precip chance for Saturday to 30%.

keep dropping, keep dropping! Let's get to a big ZERO by next weekend.

 

[Sandy321]

I don't see an hour-by-hour at weather.com, but they've dropped precip chance for Saturday to 30%.

That's 70% chance of NO rain during the race!!

 

[cewait]

You guys should not that I dod not mention precipitation until higher than 30% in my reporting. I figure at 7 days out 30% is next to nothing.

 

[cewait]

Forcecasts are dropping with a front prediction firming up and a smaller chance of wet.
The three forecasts continue to align. It’s is beginning to look like a cold half and a cooler full.


A quick look back finds the original post had 40, 39 and 40 are the three start temps.


NWS
5k Start – 44F – Hi 59F – 30% Chance - NNW Wind
Half Start – 39F – Hi 56F – NNW Wind
Full Start –

NWS Discussion

Thu-sun...temperatures briefly modify as return flow sets up ahead of
approaching frontal boundary Thu-Fri. A period of low chance probability of precipitation occurs Friday as front drops down the peninsula. Cold/dry advection commences once again later Friday into next weekend...with believe it or not...another freeze threat. The latest model guidance shows gusty northwest flow again behind the front due to strong high pressure center dropping down through the plains and potent storm center off the northeast U.S. Coast.

Weather Channel
5k Start – 43F – Hi 54F – 40% chance during day
Half Start – 38F -- Hi 58F – 30% Chance Showers -NW Wind
Full Start - 44F – Hi 63F – - 60% scattered shwrs through night - NW Wind

Accuweather
5k Start 46F - Feel Real 34F – Hi 60F (chance of shwr) –
Half Start 34F - Feel Real 25F - - Hi 55F
Full Start 35F - Feel Real 27F -- Hi 57F

Intellicast
5k Start – 42F – Hi 54F - 40% chance of showers – Wind NW
Half Start – 39F - Hi 57F - 60% chance of showers – Wind NW
Full Start – 45F – Hi 63F

As a statistical point the weather service averages are low 50F and hi 71F. Averages since I have been attending (1999) Low 48 and Hi 72

 

[dismagiclover]

Thanks again Charles. I'd much rather have cold than hot! I think my body would go into shock if it gets too warm after running in the freezing temps for a month.

 

[GBBTomorrow]

At what temperature do most people end up running in shorts and short sleeves (dropping layers as it warms up)? I can't decide about tights.

 

[FFigawi]

At what temperature do most people end up running in shorts and short sleeves (dropping layers as it warms up)? I can't decide about tights.

I only put on tights if the temperature starts in the low 30s and isn't expected to get much past 40. Any warmer than that, and I'll start with an outer layer and remove it as I warm up. It's not my arms that get cold, it's my chest when the cool breeze hits it and evaporates the sweat, so if it's windy, I sometimes run with a vest (windproof front, mesh back) to keep my core warm.

My wife went out the other day and bought us some really cheap sweats to wear to keep warm before the start, so I'll have those no matter what the temperature is. Well, unless it gets into the 50s or 60s.

 

[DianeL]

Thanks Charles! I read how you and a few others (sorry can't recall all who had the same there were a few of you wise people!) were bringing enough to be covered from 30 to 80 and rain and sun. So I packed last night and did the same.

GBBT... that is going to be a personal choice on the shorts. I remember Frank saying that at a temp that is cold for me he runs in shorts and no shirt. In the temps Frank is running around like that I'm in tights under my wind pants, fleece pull over with at least 1 long sleeve tech shirt

It's 9 outside right now. 39 sounds warm except then I saw those wind chills and that was what i was running in last week dressed as above! LOL If it were 39 and no wind I'd actually be happy.

Those packing lists aren't done being checked yet!

 

[cewait]

At what temperature do most people end up running in shorts and short sleeves (dropping layers as it warms up)? I can't decide about tights.

I'll be in tights but more for their support than warmth. If just for temperature, I would be in shorts from upper 30's up unless the wind is really blowing.

I have a few pair of CW-x tights that I wear when going longer distances. These tights are a little gimmicky. they offer a little compression but the banding in the tights (the x-patterns) act like kenesio taping. It helps keep the tendons a little more comfortable longer while supporting the majo muscle groups.

 

[liznboys]

I was just going to post on here and ask if anyone is rethinking wearing shorts or skirts and will wear pants/tights instead... I think I better consider bringing along some to wear the entire race if I decide it's cool enough for that. I will have toss away pants no matter what for the start and very first part of the race until I warm up.

Yesterday when I ran outside it was about 31 degrees and NW winds 5-10 mph. No way I'd want to be in shorts or a skirt for that. I know it'll be warmer than that though...have to figure out what temp I switch from pants to shorts.

 

[cewait]

OK hang onto those longjohns…..

Revised Forecast (11 am EST today)
Weather Channel
5k Start – 45F – Hi 55F – 40% chance during day
Half Start – 29F -- Hi 52F – Clowdy -NW Wind
Full Start - 33F – Hi 63F – NW Wind

Was
Weather Channel
5k Start – 43F – Hi 54F – 40% chance during day
Half Start – 38F -- Hi 58F – 30% Chance Showers -NW Wind
Full Start - 44F – Hi 63F – - 60% scattered shwrs through night - NW Wind

 

[liznboys]

Wow, if it's a 29 degree start, I will definitely be wearing pants the entire race.

 

[marathonmommy]

Is anyone considering a light weight long sleeve tech shirt? Am I crazy for thinking this? I am running for a charity and need to do an iron-on for the shirt I "plan" to wear. I think I'm going to the Nike outlet today for a pair of running pants!

 

[hockeygirl]

yikes! that is way too cold for me! i prefer running in the warmer temps. I am trying to pack and I guess i am bringing stuff for cold and warm...this is going to make it difficult. I was hoping to wear shorts, but am reconsidering and think I will be wearing tights!

 

[smileyk8]

I have just been trying to pack and so far have a range of stuff in my bag. Usually I'd wear a lightweight jacket upto about 6oC, then just longsleeve under a short sleeve top upto about 12oC then just short sleeve. I really can't follow my rules with this forecast!!!

Anyone know how quickly it warms up over there? So if it does start really cold, will the temps increase once the sun's up or will it take a good few hours?

 

[Honeibee]

Well, it's a good thing I just gave up on the carry-on only and dragged out the big suitcase. Might as well pack everything I have.

 

[cewait]

Is anyone considering a light weight long sleeve tech shirt? Am I crazy for thinking this? I am running for a charity and need to do an iron-on for the shirt I "plan" to wear. I think I'm going to the Nike outlet today for a pair of running pants!

Not really, I find that once I get moving the arms will take care of themselves. A light to medium long sleeved tech shirt should work. The tighter the weave the less likely you will chill. I then layer with short sleeved shirts underneath to keep my torso warm.

I have a suggestion. Sionce things remain variable at this time, why not apply the iron on in your resort room once we get a better sense of the temps. All rooms have an iron.

I have just been trying to pack and so far have a range of stuff in my bag. Usually I'd wear a lightweight jacket upto about 6oC, then just longsleeve under a short sleeve top upto about 12oC then just short sleeve. I really can't follow my rules with this forecast!!!

Anyone know how quickly it warms up over there? So if it does start really cold, will the temps increase once the sun's up or will it take a good few hours?

The warm up depends on wind, cloud and humidity.

An example of a 32F to 52F day look at tomorrow on the Weather.com.

6am (Start) is 33F, 7AM still 33F, 7:19 Sunrise; 8AM 35F; 9AM 37F; 10AM 41F; 11AM 44F and Noon 48F.

 

[WiseGirl]

Wow - the temps just keep dropping! Highs in the 40s and 50s in Orlando next week and weekend. With temps like this I'll be wearing the same thing I've trained in here in MN (minus the vest). I'm thinking tights and a long sleeve shirt instead of the shiny new shorts and top I bought and broke in. I just bought a race number belt yesterday to hold my bib because I'm not sure what to wear on race day. Another thing I learned about from the experts here - thanks! I had so hoped for nice weather for the race after training in ice and snow. BRRRRR! I'm more worried about waiting around in the cold than running in it - the running won't be a problem if my limbs still work!

 

[Sandy321]

Wow - the temps just keep dropping! Highs in the 40s and 50s in Orlando next week and weekend. With temps like this I'll be wearing the same thing I've trained in here in MN (minus the vest). I'm thinking tights and a long sleeve shirt instead of the shiny new shorts and top I bought and broke in. I just bought a race number belt yesterday to hold my bib because I'm not sure what to wear on race day. Another thing I learned about from the experts here - thanks! I had so hoped for nice weather for the race after training in ice and snow. BRRRRR! I'm more worried about waiting around in the cold than running in it - the running won't be a problem if my limbs still work!

That was my thought as well! I thought I could manage in my compression shorts, and shorts over that - but I'm wondering if I should just plan on the running pants?!!

and my top? heck I dont need a running jacke.... wait HOW COLD is it at 4am - 6am? crap...

I was planning on layers, and a throwaway sweat - I've even worn the thrown away - I'm starting to get attatched to it hey, its warm!!

going to get some fleece and make a lime green scarf!!