Marathon Weekend Weather - version 2011

[J3nn78]

I can deal with that. I just don't want to have to bundle up like I have been doing for my runs at home. If I can wear my shorts-rather than tights (no fun for pit stops) I will be happy!

 

[FireDancer]

As long as it stays dry those full temps are absolutely perfect. We'll see how they change as the race gets closer.

 

[bunnyfoo]

I'm happy with the weather - anything except for rain and snow!

 

[Suzy Mouse]

I should REALLY stop looking at the weather because it's starting to depress me!! The temps are looking great but the precipitation not so good! When do you think the forecast is "set". I know how Florida weather can be...but what's it been like in the past?

 

[cewait]

I should REALLY stop looking at the weather because it's starting to depress me!! The temps are looking great but the precipitation not so good! When do you think the forecast is "set". I know how Florida weather can be...but what's it been like in the past?

Keep in mind that January is the middle of the dry season so rain is not that common. So while the forecast has rain and the period is listed as 10 hours, the accumulation is less than 0.10" Hardly worth fretting about. I have run this since 99 and have only been wet twice (not counting getting wet from fog or frost a couple years). The first was 04 when a deluge came with a front. Then the other was the sleety rain last year. Note that the deluge was not all that long but kind of hard.

So if you believe in statistics and numerical patterns this year will be dry.

If I were a betting man, I would say race temps will start in the upper 40's or lower 50's both mornings and the race remains dry

Note to those who think it rained in 2008... it was after the official finish of the marathon, therefore, a dry race.

 

[Suzy Mouse]

Thanks coach! I'd like to run this race without garbage bags!!! Last year's marathon was towels...garbage bags...anything to keep warm. The temp looks great. I would just like a dry run!

I've decided to go to packet pick up on Friday rather than on Thursday. Thursday looks like it's going to be a beautiful day and I'd rather spend Friday inside the expo! But plans change...just as the weather does.

Thanks so much for posting the forecasts...I think!!!

 

[KAA1972]

I have a prediction that those temps will stick. Mainly, because hubby and I have spent 100's of dollars in cold weather running clothes that we didn't own. So, I'm thinking they will all go unused -- which in the end will be fine with us. Now, the downside is that we don't own running rain gear -- but I guarantee everyone that if we go buy some then it won't rain. Perhaps, I should go shopping for rain gear now!

 

[rubato]

I have a prediction that those temps will stick. Mainly, because hubby and I have spent 100's of dollars in cold weather running clothes that we didn't own. So, I'm thinking they will all go unused -- which in the end will be fine with us. Now, the downside is that we don't own running rain gear -- but I guarantee everyone that if we go buy some then it won't rain. Perhaps, I should go shopping for rain gear now!

Yes, please go buy some right now!

 

[bunnyfoo]

Yes, please go buy some right now!

+1

 

[Disney G Dog]

Weather.com shows a low of 48 for Friday the 7th and a high of 75 for the 8th. 30% of showers. Since I've been training in the teens here in Indiana, that's gonna feel like a heatwave!

 

[cewait]

Today’s update…

Note, I made an executive decision that rain in only mentioned if listed in the forecast without a percentage, of the percentage is greater than 30%. If one does not draw the line at above 30% you get precipitation mentioned on most days.


NWS
I seem to be ahead of our friends at the NWS – looking late

Weather Channel
5k Start - 53F – Hi 75F – Showers through night
Half Start - 55F – Hi 75F
Full Start – 48F – Hi 68F


Accuweather
5k Start 56F – Hi 74F – Rain over night
Half Start 41F – Hi 62F
Full Start – 38F – Hi 60F

Intellicast
5k Start - 53F – Hi 73F - Showers
Half Start - 56F – Hi 73F
Full Start – 48F - Hi 67F

Weatherforyou
5k Start 53F – Hi 61F
Half Start 41F – Hi 57F
Full Start 45F – Hi 52F


Norms
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

 

[Mickey Chic]

woo hoo! looking good for sunday! Thanks cewait for keeping up on the forecast..what to pack is always an issue .

weather.com has some showers indicated for Sat and Fri. Doesnt seem like they will be a wash out though. I'll guess its the normal florida periodic rain shower. Up here in CT it can rain for days on end, just for 'fun'.

 

[FFigawi]

It looks like Weather Channel & Intellicast are using one model, and Accuweather & Weatherforyou are using a second one, given how similar their respective forecasts are. Any idea which one has proven to be more accurate this far in advance?

 

[deleckidesign]

Wow, quite a bit of variance. I'm liking TWC and Intellicast, but not the other two! Brrr!

 

[Suzy Mouse]

2 questions:

What's up with "Weatherforyou"? They need to get their highs out of the 50s!

Which company pays their forecasters the big bucks? I'll go with them!

 

[FFigawi]

Wow, quite a bit of variance. I'm liking TWC and Intellicast, but not the other two! Brrr!

I thought just the opposite. I think TWC's forecast is too warm.

 

[cewait]

I thought just the opposite. I think TWC's forecast is too warm.

Having been out on my bike this AM in the near summer conditions I AGREE. Seriously, folks who are wishing for start temps in the upper 50's low 60's are not understanding what they are asking for... I feel for the Med Staff in the event the temp starts off in the 60's

2 questions:

What's up with "Weatherforyou"? They need to get their highs out of the 50s!

Which company pays their forecasters the big bucks? I'll go with them!

Actually, I am going to bank on the lowest paid forecasters.... The National Weather Service, once we get into their window. (expect an update in about 90 minutes that will include Friday)

Really the issue between the two sets of models is whether a front stalls in the Osceola area of comes on through. Coming through would be better as it pushes all chances of rain away with it and the temps are seasonal or slightly below.

 

[FFigawi]

Having been out on my bike this AM in the near summer conditions I AGREE. Seriously, folks who are wishing for start temps in the upper 50's low 60's are not understanding what they are asking for... I feel for the Med Staff in the event the temp starts off in the 60's

I'm with you on that. Conditions this morning were almost exactly like one of the forecasts - 60, overcast, muggy, foggy. I was drenched in sweat before my first mile was even over. It'll be even worse for the people who have been training in the cold the past month. Bring on the 40s!

 

[verticalchaos]

I'm with you on that. Conditions this morning were almost exactly like one of the forecasts - 60, overcast, muggy, foggy. I was drenched in sweat before my first mile was even over. It'll be even worse for the people who have been training in the cold the past month. Bring on the 40s!

AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 40s is NOT that cold.

 

[disneygirlinnj]

Having been out on my bike this AM in the near summer conditions I AGREE. Seriously, folks who are wishing for start temps in the upper 50's low 60's are not understanding what they are asking for... I feel for the Med Staff in the event the temp starts off in the 60's

Couldn't agree more!!! A race start in the 40s is NOT cold at all. Remember that it's 5am and will totally warm up. If the race starts out in the 60s, I know me and a LOT of other people are kinda screwed. Me & warm weather running is NOT a good combination...

I found that out the hard way after running Wine & Dine in 75 degree humid weather...dripping sweat half a mile in. Although I can now vouch that the medical staff at the finish line is amazing and have amazingly quick reflexes when trying to throw me a garbage can to puke into....