Marathon Weekend 2026

[princesspirateandrunner]

SAFD:

Les Halles (haven’t been to Via Napoli, but want to go)
Ronto Roasters
Skipper’s
Satu’li

 

[Mr_Incr3dible]

First, I commend anyone who wants to run a marathon. I also really love that Disney has created weekends that support people in becoming active. What I have an issue with is with people registering for the race and not taking it seriously. According to TrackShack there were 12,532 finishers for this year's marathon. I can't seem to find the exact number of bibs for that race (news articles say 30,000 but I think hat is across the entire weekend). But let's assume there were 15,000 marathon bibs available (I suspect the number is higher), that means 16.5% of people either did not start or did not finish. A 83.5% finisher rate is significantly smaller than the majors (which is I believe is closer to 98%). I remember in 2018 when there were 25,000 who started but around 20,000 finishers. This seems unfair to those who are going to take the training seriously.

No argument. And I *hate* the idea of a bib going unused when there was someone who wanted to run who wasn't able to get one.
But from Disney's perspective, they have the entry money and that many fewer runners to feed and hydrate, and that many fewer runners to get out of the parks since they don't seem to really want us in the parks much anymore.

 

[FFigawi]

Because DHS opens later than AK, you may have more luck with accessing single rider or LL lines on those rides as day guests won't have a lot of time to get into the queue yet.

You need to be careful not to get there too early. I hit ToT this year somewhere around 915-930, and they were not letting runners on. There were cast members blocking you from heading over to RnRC as well. They did open both rides to runners about 30-45 minutes later.

 

[Barca33Runner]

Casually following along the DNS/DNF aspect of the fallout of the annual “not enough places for everybody/there has to be a better way” registration discussion and cross-referencing with the annual post-race weekend “the course is too crowded” discourse I’ve come to the likely conclusion that rD both builds into their registration numbers and relies upon a relatively large amount of attrition in the form of DNS and DNF participants (particularly DNS). I think they oversell every event relative to the number of people they actually want on the course with the expectation that a decent percentage of those registered will not toe the line on race day.

With Disney’s overwhelming company wide focus on data and analytics I’d actually be pretty shocked if they don’t have internal numbers that let them know exactly how many “extra” bibs to sell to end up with their target number of runners on the course on race day. It would be inefficient and wasteful of them not to take advantage of that knowledge. They can plan for the target number with the expectation they can still pull off the race even if the worst case scenario of everyone showing up happens.

All that to say, I’m not sure that DNS/DNF registrants are really stealing bibs from people who would finish the race. I’m both optimistic and cynical in the way I come to that conclusion. Optimistically, I think the vast majority of DNS/DNF registrants had every intention of finishing when they signed up and that the decision to DNS/DNF is gutting when it is made. Cynically, I think Disney wants to claim every dollar available to them and since they know the percentages of how many people historically DNS their races, they oversell their races to capture that revenue.

 

[FFigawi]

Casually following along the DNS/DNF aspect of the fallout of the annual “not enough places for everybody/there has to be a better way” registration discussion and cross-referencing with the annual post-race weekend “the course is too crowded” discourse I’ve come to the likely conclusion that rD both builds into their registration numbers and relies upon a relatively large amount of attrition in the form of DNS and DNF participants (particularly DNS). I think they oversell every event relative to the number of people they actually want on the course with the expectation that a decent percentage of those registered will not toe the line on race day.

With Disney’s overwhelming company wide focus on data and analytics I’d actually be pretty shocked if they don’t have internal numbers that let them know exactly how many “extra” bibs to sell to end up with their target number of runners on the course on race day. It would be inefficient and wasteful of them not to take advantage of that knowledge. They can plan for the target number with the expectation they can still pull off the race even if the worst case scenario of everyone showing up happens.

All that to say, I’m not sure that DNS/DNF registrants are really stealing bibs from people who would finish the race. I’m both optimistic and cynical in the way I come to that conclusion. Optimistically, I think the vast majority of DNS/DNF registrants had every intention of finishing when they signed up and that the decision to DNS/DNF is gutting when it is made. Cynically, I think Disney wants to claim every dollar available to them and since they know the percentages of how many people historically DNS their races, they oversell their races to capture that revenue.

Agree with this 100%. If we can estimate the DNS and DNS percentages, you know that runDisney does so as well with far more accuracy and history. Considering the number of entries used to be in the 25,000 range, I have no doubt they're using all kinds of data to create and run models that set the number of entries with an highly predicted amount of DNS to arrive at the targeted number of runners on course to maximize revenue, minimize complaints about course crowding, and optimize what their sponsors are willing to provide for food, fuel, etc., all within the limitations of what roads, paths, and portions of parks they can use for a course. Having 25,000 people on the current course would be a recipe for disaster. Having 16,000 runners on the old and more wide open courses would mean leaving money on the table.

 

[Disney at Heart]

Disney analyzes everything! Sometime before there was a Dopey, MW had more men than women, and Princess was very much female centric, the Perfectly Goofys received an email that was mistakenly sent out with data comparing the merchandise purchases at each weekend. (Which was immediately followed by a “disregard and delete the previous email” email)
Disney’s conclusion was that Princess weekend sold tons more merch than Marathon weekend so they had numbers of how much to order for each weekend! We had a good laugh because the data “proved” that women were much bigger shoppers than men!

 

[nekonekoneko]

so they had numbers of how much to order for each weekend!

So this is why the Dopey hoodies were flying off the shelves a couple months ago?

 

[Jason Bryer]

All that to say, I’m not sure that DNS/DNF registrants are really stealing bibs from people who would finish the race. I’m both optimistic and cynical in the way I come to that conclusion. Optimistically, I think the vast majority of DNS/DNF registrants had every intention of finishing when they signed up and that the decision to DNS/DNF is gutting when it is made. Cynically, I think Disney wants to claim every dollar available to them and since they know the percentages of how many people historically DNS their races, they oversell their races to capture that revenue.

You might be right here, but I wonder if the lawyers would allow them to do that. There is a chance that everyone does show up and if something goes wrong and it turns out they were prepared for 15,000 runners but had 20,000 runners show up it creates a risk for Disney. What I am surprised about is that Disney isn't make this a profit opportunity. We know that occasionally they give refunds minus $45 processing fee. Those bibs are then put back into circulation. If they allowed cancelations up to a certain date, that is free money. This along with their merch supply issue (again, leaving money on the table) has me wondering how well they are analyzing their data.

 

[nekonekoneko]

There is a chance that everyone does show up and if something goes wrong and it turns out they were prepared for 15,000 runners but had 20,000 runners show up it creates a risk for Disney.

This is possible, but rather unlikely. The math is very similar to overselling flights on an airplane. But in runDisney's case, with so many more people at one time, the numbers will fall closer to expected.

 

[The Expert]

Casually following along the DNS/DNF aspect of the fallout of the annual “not enough places for everybody/there has to be a better way” registration discussion and cross-referencing with the annual post-race weekend “the course is too crowded” discourse I’ve come to the likely conclusion that rD both builds into their registration numbers and relies upon a relatively large amount of attrition in the form of DNS and DNF participants (particularly DNS). I think they oversell every event relative to the number of people they actually want on the course with the expectation that a decent percentage of those registered will not toe the line on race day.

I think this is spot on. And it's exactly how airline seats work. That's why you'll occasionally hear a gate agent asking for volunteers to bump off a full flight. All flights are oversold, as airlines know from data trends how many people are likely to miss that flight. When the averages don't work out, they pay people to get off. Car rentals work the same way, which is why you'll show up somewhere and end up with a totally different car than you booked (or sometimes none at all).

the Perfectly Goofys received an email that was mistakenly sent out with data comparing the merchandise purchases at each weekend. (Which was immediately followed by a “disregard and delete the previous email” email)

I would love to see that email! More proof they should just allow preorders for everything.

 

[nancipants]

Car rentals work the same way, which is why you'll show up somewhere and end up with a totally different car than you booked (or sometimes none at all).

To quote Seinfeld, they know how to make the reservation, but not how to keep the reservation.

 

[SheHulk]

To quote Seinfeld, they know how to make the reservation, but not how to keep the reservation.

I will never not think of this when the rental place doesn't actually have my car

 

[nekonekoneko]

they should just allow preorders for everything.

And NOT have everything in bundles.

 

[KSellers88]

Random question...I have never done Dopey before, only the marathon. Would it be ok to follow a marathon training plan to run Dopey? I use the Runna app for my current training, but there is no option for Dopey...or should I try to find a separate plan to follow?

 

[camaker]

Random question...I have never done Dopey before, only the marathon. Would it be ok to follow a marathon training plan to run Dopey? I use the Runna app for my current training, but there is no option for Dopey...or should I try to find a separate plan to follow?

I've run every one of my Dopeys using a marathon training plan. If the plan is to finish it comfortably, a marathon plan featuring back to back training runs should be quite sufficient. Everyone has their own experiences, though.

 

[Herding_Cats]

Random question...I have never done Dopey before, only the marathon. Would it be ok to follow a marathon training plan to run Dopey? I use the Runna app for my current training, but there is no option for Dopey...or should I try to find a separate plan to follow?

The DopeyBadger rule of thumb is that a good marathon training plan should adequately prepare you for Dopey, and there are plenty of us in here who demonstrate that point. The best plan is one you will follow. (Now, if you're looking to PR distances within Dopey, or run the HM or marathon "hard" you might want to look into a more specific plan.)

 

[KSellers88]

The DopeyBadger rule of thumb is that a good marathon training plan should adequately prepare you for Dopey, and there are plenty of us in here who demonstrate that point. The best plan is one you will follow. (Now, if you're looking to PR distances within Dopey, or run the HM or marathon "hard" you might want to look into a more specific plan.)

Most definitely not. LOL The only goal is to survive.

 

[Fenway1970]

All that to say, I’m not sure that DNS/DNF registrants are really stealing bibs from people who would finish the race. I’m both optimistic and cynical in the way I come to that conclusion. Optimistically, I think the vast majority of DNS/DNF registrants had every intention of finishing when they signed up and that the decision to DNS/DNF is gutting when it is made. Cynically, I think Disney wants to claim every dollar available to them and since they know the percentages of how many people historically DNS their races, they oversell their races to capture that revenue.

Joining the other posters in seconding this notion. The expected attrition numbers are almost certainly "baked in" to the number of bibs they make available. And while we're here it's also likely the current registration day model is the optimum method (from a data analytics viewpoint) to produce the expected numbers of both finishers and DNSs while maximizing revenue.

While I understand all that it also makes me a little sad because data analytics are also at the root of all of the recent changes that we as runDisney faithful view as subtractions from our experience. It's all about ROI. This year's changes to the marathon course and start time were surely based on data that suggested that a "small subtraction" from the runners' side would return a "large addition" to park goers' side and ultimately translate into more money for Disney. To borrow a term I learned from poker, that change was plus-EV (expected value) for Disney, and every data guy will tell you to always make the decision with the highest EV. Risk a little to gain a lot.

That's not to pile on rD or Disney at large. Everyone is using data analytics nowadays, the downside being that from the consumer side it doesn't always "feel" great or make sense emotionally. Airlines over-selling flights is a perfect example. When an individual gets the fuzzy end of that lollipop and gets bumped from a flight, the emotional reaction is to wonder why they sell more tickets than they have seats. But the airlines view it from an overall process and profit maximization standpoint and inconveniencing the few individuals who happen to land on the extreme negative end of the predicted range of outcomes is worth the risk to them.

Likewise, it doesn't "feel" great to miss out on registration day and then find out later 16.5% of the bibs for the race you wanted went unused. But the reality is that it was all by design to begin with. As they say it's a feature, not a bug.

 

[Fenway1970]

Random question...I have never done Dopey before, only the marathon. Would it be ok to follow a marathon training plan to run Dopey? I use the Runna app for my current training, but there is no option for Dopey...or should I try to find a separate plan to follow?

I used the Hal Higdon Dopey plan for the two that I've done so far and it helped me to survive both: https://www.halhigdon.com/training-programs/marathon-training/dopey-challenge/

There are also of course the rD-approved Jeff Galloway training plans, which use the run-walk-run method. They are right on rD's website and he has a Dopey plan: https://www.rundisney.com/running-training-programs/

To be honest, for this past MW I used a combo of both of those. Higdon's miles but with Galloway's r-w-r method.

Like @Herding_Cats said though, the best plan is one you will follow. One thing I will say about this community here on the forums is that they are monumentally supportive, and this is a good place to come for advice and encouragement. You got this!

 

[Naomeri]

Random question...I have never done Dopey before, only the marathon. Would it be ok to follow a marathon training plan to run Dopey? I use the Runna app for my current training, but there is no option for Dopey...or should I try to find a separate plan to follow?

I did a half-a**ed job of following a marathon plan for my first Dopey training this year and I did just fine physically. Mentally was a whole different thing due to really poor sleep