Marathon Weekend 2022

[Herding_Cats]

yeah i just checked and they do have public wifi on all the time in their childrens' garden. Just something i have to make sure that there aren't other plans made that morning to interfere.

 

[DopeyBadger]

60% of the field, hard to imagine…

The first race I did in 2015 I had no POT and I remember on Marathon day being in coral P (I believe). I know for sure that it took forever to get to the start. It was my first marathon and the waiting was the absolute worst part! From then on I always submitted a POT to avoid that waiting. It must have been 45 minutes. Ended up being a lot of extra time in the sun later in the race.
My daughter, who is 14 and a strong runner, but newer to the half distance wants to go for a POT even if it is set at 2:00. So I guess I am putting some speed work back in my training and we will see if we can go sub-2 on the half. If not we will put what ever time we each and hope that does not end up being 60% off the field!

This is the ethical dilemma I will face. I have a 2:22 POT, so will I be honest and select 2:15-2:30 and end up near the back, or select 2:00-2:15 and join the other 90% (gross exaggeration, I hope) of the non POT runners who will claim they have suddenly become very fast? I feel for the legit 2:00-2:15 runners who will have to weave around groups of walkers in front of them going 4 abreast.

The other logistical issue all of us non POT runners will face concerns the mini waves. If there are only a few huge corrals, then how early should we get to the corral to be somewhere near the front in an earlier mini wave?

So this is what the data is telling me. These are the last three Marathon Weekend % bib breakdowns within each corral. On the side I put the old 2020 Marathon Weekend POT cutoffs. The 2020 Wine and Dine was suppose to be the first weekend with a new HM cutoff of 2:30 and 2021 MW new M cutoff of 5:00, but those races never happened live.

Marathon

For the marathon, on average 12.2% of the field would have a POT if the cutoff were set at 4:00 hours. That's still an unknown at this time. There would be on average 32% of runners who in 2020 did have a POT that in 2022 would not have a POT. The last two corrals (6:00-7:00 hr estimate) are mostly consistent at 30% of the field. So if we take the 12.2% with POT and the 30% that leans towards the 6:00-7:00, then that leaves roughly 58% of the field to divvy up. Of which it consists of 32% of the total field previously having a POT and 26% of the field from the first non-POT corral in 2020. Given the trend we saw after 2018 to 2019 and the movement from Corral G to Corral F, it is my guess that we saw an influx of people using the fastest estimate choice as a means to move up. Although I could easily be wrong in that assumption. So that leaves us to wonder how much of that same group of people would move from a 5:30-6:00 estimate to a 4:00-4:30 estimate. So 58% is the absolute max, but it is unlikely every single person will select the highest choice. I think you'll see something like 12% who were Cs, 5% from Ds, 5% from Es, and 20% from Fs. So that would be an estimated 42% of the field in Corral C (or whatever they name the first non-POT corral).

HM

For the half marathon, on average 9.7% of the field would have a POT if the cutoff were set at 2:00 hours. That's still an unknown at this time, although a better assumption based on Wine and Dine HM. There would be on average 26% of runners who in 2020 did have a POT that in 2022 would not have a POT. The last two corrals (3:00-3:30 hr estimate) are mostly consistent at 39% of the field. So if we take the 9.7% with POT and the 35% that leans towards the 3:00-3:30, then that leaves roughly 55% of the field to divvy up. Of which it consists of 26% of the total field previously having a POT and 29% of the field from the first non-POT corral in 2020. Given the trend we saw after 2018 to 2019 and the movement from Corral G to Corral F, it is my guess that we saw an influx of people using the fastest estimate choice as a means to move up. Although I could easily be wrong in that assumption. So that leaves us to wonder how much of that same group of people would move from a 2:45-3:00 estimate to a 2:00-2:15 estimate. So 55% is the absolute max, but it is unlikely every single person will select the highest choice. I think you'll see something like 9% who were Cs, 4% from Ds, 4% from Es, and 15% from Fs. So that would be an estimated 32% of the field in Corral C (or whatever they name the first non-POT corral).

It's important to remember, the rate of release will likely stay the same regardless of the distribution of runners when using mini-waves. So if the 10,000th runner crossed the starting line 23 min after the starting gun in 2018-2020, then the 10,000th runner will cross the starting line 23 min after the starting gun in 2022 as well. The rate of release in the past has been about 400-450 runners per minute. So if the Marathon C Corral has 42% of the field (7774 runners based on 18,500*.42), then it should take about 7774/425 per min = 18 min for that corral to go from start to end. So the difference in being at the front of the first non-POT corral and the second non-POT corral would be 18 min of starting time. There are a lot of assumptions in these numbers, so view them appropriately. For the HM, that same value would be about 20 min.

Based on past years, the walk to the corrals opened 75-90 min in advance of the race start time. So if the races start at 5:00am, then the walk to the corrals would open at 3:30-3:45am. The race area opens 2.5 hrs before the race begins (or 2:30am for a 5:00am start time).

 

[1lilspark]

Booked mermaid rooms at AOA this weekend was close to booking movies to counter balance the sticker shock of staying at AKL for wine & dine if we gain bibs and the other all stars and/or Port Orleans are still shuddered by November but skyliner lol

 

[striker1064]

Really thrilled to see the return of races. Planning to sign up for my first marathon. 2021 would have been my first, but the pandemic (and an injury) made that impossible. 1br SSR is about all that's left for DVC inventory that weekend, but I'll take it!

 

[LdyStormy76]

Received from the TA I used for W&D 2020:

“As an Authorized Disney Vacation Planner, we are allowed to book your hotel & park tickets for these race weekends. However, Disney has decided that guests will be responsible to get their own race registrations directly through runDisney.”

 

[flav]

My daughter, who is 14 and a strong runner, but newer to the half distance wants to go for a POT

My DD is 13 and there are no races around here that would let her run a half, even if they happened. We had found a 10k but it got canceled. So no POT here we would come!

 

[shellott-hill]

My DD is 13 and there are no races around here that would let her run a half, even if they happened. We had found a 10k but it got canceled. So no POT here we would come!

For January 2021, I ran the Half without a PoT. During registration, I selected the "fastest" non-PoT option they provided.

The question during registration was "WHAT IS YOUR ANTICIPATED HALF MARATHON FINISH TIME? " I selected "Over 2 hours and 45 minutes (POT not required)"
The second question was "SELECT YOUR ANTICIPATED HALF MARATHON FINISH TIME" I selected "2:46-3:00"

By answering that way, they placed me in corral F.

I finished the half at around 2:10. If everyone recalls, it was stupid hot and that made me walk through every single aide station and drink two cups of Powerade and two cups of water at each. A third cup of water was used to dose my head to cool off.

I hope that helps.

 

[Dopey 2020]

Any ideas on how far back POT will go? W&D looks like Jan. 2019 but I can’t seem to find a date for MW. I thinking pretty far back though since there haven’t been many races, hoping anyways because my 2019 W&D was a 1:49 HM which would put me in B for dopey.
I’m worried that runDisney is going for the easy route and having A,B,C(for club runDisney corral upgrades, and D(let the rest fend for themselves)
Looking at AP and DVC early registration going away, they seem to be doing everything they can to push club memberships that weren’t selling. I really hope not, it just seems odd to put everyone over 2:00 in a single large pool.

Here’s wishing everyone a great race and good connections on registration day.

eta: just looked again and realized @DopeyBadger has C for club runDisney in the first chart, that’s pretty much what I’m thinking

 

[DopeyBadger]

Any ideas on how far back POT will go? W&D looks like Jan. 2019 but I can’t seem to find a date for MW. I thinking pretty far back though since there haven’t been many races, hoping anyways because my 2019 W&D was a 1:49 HM which would put me in B for dopey.
I’m worried that runDisney is going for the easy route and having A,B,C(for club runDisney corral upgrades, and D(let the rest fend for themselves)
Looking at AP and DVC early registration going away, they seem to be doing everything they can to push club memberships that weren’t selling. I really hope not, it just seems odd to put everyone over 2:00 in a single large pool.

Here’s wishing everyone a great race and good connections on registration day.

eta: just looked again and realized @DopeyBadger has C for club runDisney in the first chart, that’s pretty much what I’m thinking

My guess based on Wine and Dine is that the POT cutoff date will be sometime between January-March 2019. But I haven’t seen anything definitive either.

 

[Herding_Cats]

If you haven't looked at the rental car market for MW, it's pretty ridiculous (IMO) currently. Staying offsite is a consideration, but I'm wondering:

do "good neighbor" hotels typically have event transportation? DS transportation? (not including the ones that are right next to a disney resort such as swan/dolphin)
how much an uber/ride share typically costs?

and tangentially, do we know what the replacement for ME is looking like yet?

 

[tksbaskets]

Hello, can anyone find what date the Proof of Time is need?

 

[camaker]

Hello, can anyone find what date the Proof of Time is need?

October 12. Look back about two pages for the graphic of “important dates” that @DopeyBadger posted.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Hello, can anyone find what date the Proof of Time is need?

POT submission deadline is 10/21/21 per this instagram post. The window for POT has not yet been defined.

 

[FanforDisney]

View attachment 586289

POT submission deadline is 10/21/21 per this instagram post. The window for POT has not yet been defined.

Do you think Wine and Dine was set at 2:00 because the number of bibs that Disney to providing is very low/

 

[DopeyBadger]

Do you think Wine and Dine was set at 2:00 because the number of bibs that Disney to providing is very low/

No, it is my belief these are two separate things. I'd be hard pressed to see a justification for dropping the POT even lower solely because of a decreased number of bibs available. Like what would the line of reasoning be? It was clear with Wine and Dine 2021 and Marathon Weekend 2021, that runDisney's intent was to drop the POT cutoffs lower. They had previously been 2:45 and 5:30, but were moved to 2:30 and 5:00. You could make the argument that this also coincided with a presumed decrease bib count for those races as well. But I personally see this as a move for runDisney to further attempt to boost the perceived value of Club runDisney, and additionally for a multitude of reasons (verifying POT, answering emails, dealing with changes at expo, etc.) lower the total workload on the backend. But I don't know these things definitively and this is merely my opinion and based on my view of how runDisney has operated since 2014. I could easily be wrong.

 

[jmasgat]

If you haven't looked at the rental car market for MW, it's pretty ridiculous (IMO) currently. Staying offsite is a consideration, but I'm wondering:

do "good neighbor" hotels typically have event transportation? DS transportation? (not including the ones that are right next to a disney resort such as swan/dolphin)
how much an uber/ride share typically costs?

and tangentially, do we know what the replacement for ME is looking like yet?

Good neighbor hotels don't have Disney-provided race transportation, but at least one (I'm recalling Bonnet Creek Hilton) have offered race day transportation to certain races in the past. Getting to the expo--I don't think anyone has that.

As for Uber/Lyft...no clue--and I wonder how many drivers are up for the early morning schlep to Epcot!

Mears has announced that they will offer some sort of product to WDW, but no details have been released.

 

[Kerry1957]

If you haven't looked at the rental car market for MW, it's pretty ridiculous (IMO) currently.

Are you a member of any the the rental "frequent flyer" memberships or have any legitimate discount codes? For example, I just checked Avis airport pickup and drop off from January 6-11 and I can get an intermediate for base $160 or $221 all in. That's as an Avis Preferred member with the discount code from using a Visa card. If you have a Visa card you can just google Avis Visa discount code and get the number (I think there are a couple of different codes for Visa).

I have rented cars in Orlando three times in the last year and Avis was always the best deal for me. Of course, every rental agency has their own quirks and discounts so Avis may not be the best for you.

edit to add if you just try to book the same intermediate car on the same dates as a non-member the rates are $649 base and $798 all in.

 

[tksbaskets]

View attachment 586289

POT submission deadline is 10/21/21 per this instagram post. The window for POT has not yet been defined.

Thank you!

 

[EpcotPhoenician]

Did I act too quickly by booking a room + ticket package for Marathon Week, despite tickets not being on sale yet? This will be my first rundisney event, and I wasn't quite sure how quickly rooms fill up that week.

 

[camaker]

Did I act too quickly by booking a room + ticket package for Marathon Week, despite tickets not being on sale yet? This will be my first rundisney event, and I wasn't quite sure how quickly rooms fill up that week.

Some of us have had resort reservations made for Marathon Weekend since February…