Maintenance fee predictions

[Pluto777]

I have no idea nor can I guess which resorts are more likely to increase MF's relative to others but would LOVE to know - so here's a tough question for all you math/finance geniuses out there; anyone want to make Maintenance fee % predictions for all 11 WDW resorts for 2020 and beyond?

 

[Drewferin]

I personally think RiV is a sign of the 2020 maintenance fee increase. I'd guess all resorts will go up 7 to 10% due to the $15 an hr wage increase. For me this means AKV at $7.44 x 1.10% = $8.18 a point for 2020. Kinda surprized this would still mean RIV at $8.31 in 2020 is still more expensive... Maybe RIV will decrease 2020 fees and surprize us all.

 

[Katie L]

I personally think RiV is a sign of the 2020 maintenance fee increase. I'd guess all resorts will go up 7 to 10% due to the $15 an hr wage increase. For me this means AKV at $7.44 x 1.10% = $8.18 a point for 2020. Kinda surprized this would still mean RIV at $8.31 in 2020 is still more expensive... Maybe RIV will decrease 2020 fees and surprize us all.

But you aren't factoring in the higher transportation line item at riv vs AK.

 

[skippytx]

I expect a large increase, mainly due to wage growth and property tax increases. 10% wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

[Drewferin]

AKV has higher transportation costs since they have to bus to all parks. RIV skyliner should be cheaper transportation at costs at some point for Epcot and HS.

 

[Katie L]

AKV has higher transportation costs since they have to bus to all parks. RIV skyliner should be cheaper transportation at costs at some point for Epcot and HS.

Maybe (hopefully?) in the future. But not this year.

 

[sethschroeder]

Is the Gondala cheaper though? Or do they have to store away even more money for extremely pricy fixes?

This thread makes me think it's an even better idea to wait until after the costs are released for next year if you want to buy. If it goes up 10% or more there has to be a group that is going to be looking to unload at that point.

 

[Pluto777]

I was wondering about the likely MF increases at the 11 resorts relative to each other - specifically which resorts are more likely to have higher MF's vs others over time based on their layout?

 

[Cyberc1978]

One thing that wondered me during the last increase was that VGF didn't increase as much as the others monorail resorts - Its a smaller resort but I would expect it to increase about the same now that the wage increase came into effect. With that in mind I assume that VGF will either increase about the same for next year maybe a bit less as the wage increase are less OR the increase will catch up so the MF will be more similar to BLT and Poly.

 

[zavandor]

Is the Gondala cheaper though? Or do they have to store away even more money for extremely pricy fixes?

Many said gondolas should be much cheaper to run than buses. However this is from the Disney perspective. My understanding is that they can charge whatever they want to the DRR condominium association for the service, (much?) more than the actual costs. This means the decision to build a large DVC resort at the center of the Skyliner was made to offload a large part of the costs to DVC members. If this is true, then DRR owners will subsidize the gondolas for two value and one moderate resort.

 

[Cyberc1978]

Many said gondolas should be much cheaper to run than buses. However this is from the Disney perspective. My understanding is that they can charge whatever they want to the DRR condominium association for the service, (much?) more than the actual costs. This means the decision to build a large DVC resort at the center of the Skyliner was made to offload a large part of the costs to DVC members. If this is true, then DRR owners will subsidize the gondolas for two value and one moderate resort.

My understanding is that MF have to be based on actual costs and not inflated ones. External auditing is also in place to prevent this.

 

[zavandor]

My understanding is that MF have to be based on actual costs and not inflated ones. External auditing is also in place to prevent this.

Not an expert and this has been said to me on this board, so it might be wrong.
Buses (and the gondola) are not run from the condominium association. They do not buy the buses, hire the drivers or people at the stations. They have a contractor, the Walt Disney Company, they buy the service from them. So the Disney Company may charge whatever they want to the condominium association. Since the high transportation costs have been made explicit from the beginning, DRR owners won't ever be able to challenge the cost that the WDC charges for the gondolas, because when they bough it was already budgeted.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

This thread makes me think it's an even better idea to wait until after the costs are released for next year if you want to buy. If it goes up 10% or more there has to be a group that is going to be looking to unload at that point.

Possibly, but I can't really see it. Even a 10% increase on $8 maintenance fees on a 200 point contract is only an extra $160/year. Lets assume on average that gets you about 10 nights per year, your only talking an extra $16/night for a hotel room. People will vent about rising prices, but I don't see it forcing enough people into selling off their DVC over that.

 

[CarolMN]

..............This thread makes me think it's an even better idea to wait until after the costs are released for next year if you want to buy. If it goes up 10% or more there has to be a group that is going to be looking to unload at that point.

It's unlikely DRR dues will go up for 2020. It only makes sense that since the resort doesn't open until 12/16/2019, the published dues were calculated to remain the same for 2020. Otherwise, it will be a big negative for sales. I think we will have to wait until the end of 2020 when 2021 dues are published to really make any good decision on that aspect of the resort.

 

[sethschroeder]

It's unlikely DRR dues will go up for 2020. It only makes sense that since the resort doesn't open until 12/16/2019, the published dues were calculated to remain the same for 2020. Otherwise, it will be a big negative for sales. I think we will have to wait until the end of 2020 when 2021 dues are published to really make any good decision on that aspect of the resort.

Oh I did not mean DRR going up. I mean all the other resorts. Having back to back years where increases are double or triple what some people are budgeting could push people over the edge who were maybe more in line to sell in 2021/22 meaning there would be a short term flood of contracts instead of them being spread out. This would possibly dip the market slightly as Disney would not exercise their rights to buy on all of them more than likely.

 

[texanlawyer]

One thing that wondered me during the last increase was that VGF didn't increase as much as the others monorail resorts - Its a smaller resort but I would expect it to increase about the same now that the wage increase came into effect. With that in mind I assume that VGF will either increase about the same for next year maybe a bit less as the wage increase are less OR the increase will catch up so the MF will be more similar to BLT and Poly.

I think that, at resorts with both DVC and non-DVC rooms, expenses that are attributable to the full resort (such as transportation) are allocated on a ratio of DVC occupancy to non-DVC occupancy. BLT and Poly have a larger percentage of DVC occupancy than GF does, and so that may explain why VGF's dues are comparatively lower.

 

[Pluto777]

MF's might just be the singlemost

I think that, at resorts with both DVC and non-DVC rooms, expenses that are attributable to the full resort (such as transportation) are allocated on a ratio of DVC occupancy to non-DVC occupancy. BLT and Poly have a larger percentage of DVC occupancy than GF does, and so that may explain why VGF's dues are comparatively lower dues.

If that is how they decide then what about Beach Club? Do they have a smaller percentage of DVC to Non-DVC?

 

[texanlawyer]

If that is how they decide then what about Beach Club? Do they have a smaller percentage of DVC to Non-DVC?

BCV is small, but I don't recall the split between DVC and non-DVC there, and I'm not sure whether the Yacht Club rooms would also count on the non-DVC side since they share the pool and some other stuff. However, VGF is the smallest DVC at WDW. Since it's just a small part of the Grand Floridian, it should only be on the hook for a small portion of the overall expenses.

 

[Wakey]

They have to start getting the fees under control otherwise due to the compounding effect, the fees will in 10+ years put off a significant number who would buy today, the fees are scary if it continues well over 5%

 

[CanadaDisney05]

They have to start getting the fees under control otherwise due to the compounding effect, the fees will in 10+ years put off a significant number who would buy today, the fees are scary if it continues well over 5%

Your going to see 2 to 3% on average at a minimum due to inflation.

I haven't looked at all the resorts but I don't believe they've averaged long term much more than that. Maybe 3 to 4%?