2. My mistake here - I didn't realize the average time TP posts is from 10-5pm.
Wait, are you saying that the actual, objective, observed data, the kind of data at our fingertips today that some people keep referring to and using as a basis for some of their arguments, isn't necessarily reporting all information, but is only using select data from the busiest time period of the day so that they can make a particular comparison? I didn't realize that. Just shows how careful you have to be when whipping out your data.
The TP data, from what you guys have said here, even based on averages during the busiest part of the day, seems interesting. FP+ compared to FP- it seems to be showing some SB lines are longer and some SB lines are shorter.
I'm going to throw out something I said in an earlier iteration of this same discussion and got stomped for. Can we all take a step back from our personal, subjective likes and dislikes, and consider FP+ in the bigger picture? Heck, Lake observed in this very thread that people need to take a big picture view of how FP+ impacts the future of WDW, not just individual guests.
I see a lot of people criticize FP+ over the lack of availability of a decent 4th FP+. Yes, personally, subjectively, for the uber user or otherwise who doesn't 'get what they want' that stinks. It makes FP+ a big, honkin' pile of steaming Pluto doo. But what does that 'lack of availability' mean in the big picture? Does it mean that the FP slots don't exist? No. It means they exist and someone else got them. So while you didn't get what you wanted, like you did before, while you might have to choose to wait in a SB line for something that may or may not have a longer SB line than it did before FP+ was introduced, while you may not be able to run the parks in the same manner you had become accustomed to........there are lots and lots and lots of other people riding without a line that perhaps they would have waited on in the past.
And back to that decision you, who didn't get what you wanted, have to make about a possible SB line, let's consider those SB lines. Yes, if someone's two week plan and touring style targeting only select rides they want to do has them in the parks during that worst case, biggest crowds, 10am to 5pm part of the day......yes, they will observe longer SB lines for some attractions than they found under FP- (although TP seems to show us some are actually shorter). However, in the big picture, just because they happened to hit SSE during the tiny 15 minute window in that peak time that it had the longest line of the day......well, it doesn't necessarily mean the line all day was that long, or anywhere close. In fact, even during the peak window many people had less than the average wait, and when considering opening and post 5pm waits, well.......most people who rode probably waited in a SB that that was very much shorter than the observed average for the day, an average that may or may not be longer than it was under FP-.
What's my point? On the whole, given all the people who are riding with FP+ and given the availability of shorter than '10 to 5 average' SB lines at various times during the day, the average WDW guest, particularly a new guest not comparing to what they did under FP-, may not be waiting any longer in lines overall than that guest ever did. Yes, there will be some plus lines and some minus lines, but overall......Remember, other than trying to squeeze some more ducats out of our billfolds, the goal of MM+/FP+ was the redistribution of crowds and attraction lines, and it has succeeded in that it seems. Sure, we can debate if that is good or bad for TWDC, but that's a different discussion from 'I waited longer for attraction x, therefore the system must be bad'.
Now, I don't recall if it is Angel or someone else who keeps making the point about the subjective nature of SB lines, but it's a very good point. It's also true that what could be an achieved objective on Disney's part results in a system that is a big, albeit subjective, failure for certain individual guests. But again, big picture, does that make it a failure overall, for all guests? As stated, some people may choose not to wait in a SB line of 20 minutes. That's their threshold. Never did before, won't now. However, it very well could be a situation where, even had they waited in a couple of those lines, the average time they spent in line for the day could have been lower than the average they experienced 'back in the day'. However, they choose to skip a couple of those 20 minute SB rides and they 'get less attractions done in a day because of longer standby lines'. Heck, subjectively, because of personal preference and decisions made, that may be true for the individual, but does that make it true for the average WDW guest?
I suspect not.
I suspect not.
I so agree with you on this.
