Long Term 7 month availability at Riviera and Poly Tower

[DonkeyHoTay]

I was checking Poly Tower availability today and was annoyed to find that not much was available within the 7 month window, although the long houses had better availability. With respect to the Tower being so new (3 months old?) I would expect there to be a short term issue with limits on supply (not enough Poly inventory declared) and high demand from owners of all kinds. But, I was still annoyed that I cannot find good options, even with larger room sizes (1bdrm and larger) in the Tower over the next 7 months. For a high point chart property, I though I would see more available options for more expensive units even so soon after opening? Could just be timing of inventory declaration?

My other favorite is Riviera and I was delighted to see plenty of 1bdrm and larger options. I guess that makes sense with more declared inventory, but the point charts seem friendlier so demand should be higher?

I wonder what the consensus views are for long term availability at these two resorts? Will Poly Tower end up more available like Riviera is now, or will Riviera end up harder to book at 7 months like Poly Tower is now?

 

[JackosinDIS]

I think the larger units at Poly will always be harder to book, just because of the huge number of studios at the resort. No doubt owners will trade out for lower points options once the newness has worn off a bit, but I still see them being hard to get.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I think it’s also the shiny new tower effect. Everyone wants to try it and so I wouldn’t try predicting the future availability on the first year or two. Once the initial hoopla passes I think we’ll have a more accurate representation of availability.

 

[supercarrie]

The Poly significantly underbuilt 1 and 2 bedroom villas relative to the number of studios (between tower and longhouses) compared to most other DVC resorts. I think this plays a role, although I would chalk current availability much more up to hype and excitement. It is the shiny new jewel of DVC and everyone I've spoken to wants to try it once.

Long term, it will be interesting to see if their underbuilt 1 and 2 bedrooms impact availability like it does at VDH, or if PIT will settle down more to a more traditional schedule, like VGF or Riv, where they aren't quite as hard to book at 7 months.

 

[intamin]

IMO its likely a little bit worse because of how shiny the new tower is as mentioned above but I also don’t expect long term availability of 1/2BRs to be that much better. There is a significant deficit of 1/2BRs relative to studios in the tower unfortunately and I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re perpetually booked just because Poly as a whole now is one of the larger associations and for families with more than 5 people, the 2BRs in the tower and bungalows are pretty much it. Everyone who owns there will likely end up booking all forms of the tower 2BRs I imagine before the bungalows.

Riviera will eventually be harder to book at 7 months. Not nearly as bad as Poly because the distribution of rooms is more equal, but it will become harder once the resort is sold out and 7 months availability will eventually decrease as more and more resale RIV owners can only book Riviera.

 

[Tatebeck]

All the cheap resale SAP and SAP+ points are eligible to use at Poly, but not at RIV. Only RIV owners and Direct purchasers. That may be a factor in the difference as well.

 

[Girlstar30]

The gorgeous views got me wanting to try it, but the point chart says otherwise

 

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

Also as the word gets out that despite the astronomically high points charts PIT theme park views only guarantee a glimpse of the water, not MK itself, I imagine that demand for those rooms may also adjust as well.

 

[kilik64]

Another potential factor for RIV is resale. Depending on how much turnover there is from direct to resale, it could make 7 months harder to book. The reason being that RIV resale owners HAVE to stay at RIV so if there gets to be enough of the ownership that is resale, there wont be as large a number of owners trading out to other properties at 7 months.

Who knows if that will actually become a real issue, but its something that could.

Poly resale for either the longhouse or pit deeds is good to be used at O14 so there is still flexibility for poly resale to get other resorts at 7 months.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

The reason being that RIV resale owners HAVE to stay at RIV so if there gets to be enough of the ownership that is resale, there wont be as large a number of owners trading out to other properties at 7 months.

I would think this factor (which is likely to increase over time with resale RIV owners) would have put availability pressure on RIV by now, but I was surprised/delighted to see so many booking options at RIV right now through 7 months. Wish that would stay true, but every new resale RIV owner should reduce booking options, obviously in addition to new direct RIV owners.

Poly resale for either the longhouse or pit deeds is good to be used at O14 so there is still flexibility for poly resale to get other resorts at 7 months.

Maybe that will happen and improve booking at the Poly Tower, but I guess this shiny new object phase has to end before that becomes clear.

 

[intamin]

I would think this factor (which is likely to increase over time with resale RIV owners) would have put availability pressure on RIV by now, but I was surprised/delighted to see so many booking options at RIV right now through 7 months. Wish that would stay true, but every new resale RIV owner should reduce booking options, obviously in addition to new direct RIV owners.



Maybe that will happen and improve booking at the Poly Tower, but I guess this shiny new object phase has to end before that becomes clear.

Just keep in mind that RIV is not sold out and neither is Poly tower so neither of them are fully declared yet. Right now, there are more rooms available for RIV than points have been sold. I forgot how much of the resort is declared I think like mid 80 percent but they have sold only 75 percent of the resort meaning there's an extra 10% of leeway for the time being which will not exist in a few years once Riviera sells out.

 

[Sandisw]

Remember, there are a lot more PVB points out there to book the tower in home resort than is typical when a resort goes for sale.

I think that is playing a role too. Typically if they declare say 60 rooms, the only points that can book those during home resort are the ones sold from those units.

Right now, all 4 million originally PVB points were eligible against those 60 ish rooms during home resort.

 

[maui22]

To give an idea of points. Using @wdrl January data.

Riviera had 5,054,952 sold of the 5,817,509 points declared. Guess 80k more in Feb and early part of March. Some additional number of points already sold but will not show up for up to 2 months. Maybe looking at 5.2 million of the 5.8 million (didn’t exclude the 2% they must retain).

PVB had 4,032,720 points then tower 3,608,934 added. IT allocations total 849,652 points. 4,882,372 points declared. Slightly less than 3,950,000 points would be sold for OG. Wil’s data shows 337,725 through January. Guessing 85k for February. Plus some number sold but will not show up for up to 2 months. Maybe 470,000. That puts it around 4,420,000 of the 4,882,372 declared points.

Something to keep in mind is Disney plans declarations in advance. Someone posted about this in the past. Entirely possible they already plan a declaration or two for either/both RIV and PVB. It is possible availability at 7 months reflects 400k more points declared at one resort but only 200k at the other.

 

[marmentrout85]

I sadly think this will typically be the case at Island Tower, especially in comparison to RIV (in regard to 1 & 2BR), just simply because of the room inventory breakdown.

According to DVCFieldGuide.com
RIV has 177 1BR, 90 dedicated 2BR, and 148 2BR lock-off
PIT has 74 1BR, 15 dedicated 2BR, and 46 2BR lock-off

Also throw in the fact that PVB will have more points than RIV. Call me a pessimist but I can't really see the availability getting much better in the larger PIT units.

I also feel that many are hesitant to spend their points on the RIV preferred view rooms (1BR or larger) since the argument can be made that a view of Epcot/fireworks is actually preferred over a water/skyliner view. Depends on who you talk to really. This is how I tend to feel, but more because I'd rather not overspend on points if I don't have to, not because of the view. Anyway, those preferred view 1BR always seem readily available at 7 months or even much closer to a trip.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

Also throw in the fact that PVB will have more points than RIV. Call me a pessimist but I can't really see the availability getting much better in the larger PIT units.

Especially considering the fewer number of larger PIT units compared to RIV, I'm afraid you're right - was hoping someone would have more optimistic views on PIT availability. Sure hope my PVB contracts will preserve my 11 month booking advantage every year. Normally I wouldn't worry about that (I do have a FW so that helps), but there are a lot of PVB owners that just might want what I want during other peak times.

I also feel that many are hesitant to spend their points on the RIV preferred view rooms (1BR or larger) since the argument can be made that a view of Epcot/fireworks is actually preferred over a water/skyliner view. .... Anyway, those preferred view 1BR always seem readily available at 7 months or even much closer to a trip.

That's what I see too, and it makes me happy that (at least for now) I can get good 1bdrm or larger units at RIV within 7 months.

 

[Sandisw]

Especially considering the fewer number of larger PIT units compared to RIV, I'm afraid you're right - was hoping someone would have more optimistic views on PIT availability. Sure hope my PVB contracts will preserve my 11 month booking advantage every year. Normally I wouldn't worry about that (I do have a FW so that helps), but there are a lot of PVB owners that just might want what I want during other peak times.



That's what I see too, and it makes me happy that (at least for now) I can get good 1bdrm or larger units at RIV within 7 months.

Which is why we took it off our list to own when it was combined with the current PVB

We’d only want it for the larger rooms and it seems these are going to remain tough even for the PVB owners.

 

[Canchaser143]

The Poly significantly underbuilt 1 and 2 bedroom villas relative to the number of studios (between tower and longhouses) compared to most other DVC resorts. I think this plays a role, although I would chalk current availability much more up to hype and excitement. It is the shiny new jewel of DVC and everyone I've spoken to wants to try it once.

Long term, it will be interesting to see if their underbuilt 1 and 2 bedrooms impact availability like it does at VDH, or if PIT will settle down more to a more traditional schedule, like VGF or Riv, where they aren't quite as hard to book at 7 months.

1 bedroom availability at VDH is not great, becoming significantly more difficult even at 11 months depending on the time of year Give us more 1 bedrooms! lol

 

[supercarrie]

1 bedroom availability at VDH is not great, becoming significantly more difficult even at 11 months depending on the time of year Give us more 1 bedrooms! lol

I think they seriously underestimated 1 bedroom interest at VDH. DL goers tend to do shorter stays, but that doesn't mean we don't value more space!

I do wonder what forecasting they use to determine the makeup of their resorts. I assume 7 month availability has a part in that, and 1 bedrooms are often the last to book up.

VDH I chalked up to it being DL, and I do wonder if Island Tower was supposed to be its own association. The tower studio:1 bedroom ratio isn't terrible, but the overall studios:1 bedroom ratio isn't consistent with other WDW properties apart from VGF, after the addition of the resort studios. It will be interesting to see how this impacts availability in the long run.

 

[intamin]

I really wish they had just made every room at Poly tower either a 1BR or a 2BR. Instead they just added more studios to an already studio heavy resort.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I really wish they had just made every room at Poly tower either a 1BR or a 2BR. Instead they just added more studios to an already studio heavy resort.

I agree with this. I wouldn’t want to stay in the PIT studios anyway; would rather stay in the other studios!