Lifetime Pass ... if you could purchase one

[wisbucky]

If Disney allowed DVC members to purchase a lifetime pass what do you think the cost per person would be? Anyone know off hand what the price was for a lifetime pass when Disney first began to offer them? DH and I meet a woman who had purchased two Lifetime passes orginally. We asked her how much she paid. She indicated that she didnt want to answer. Probably because she didnt want us feeling bad LOL...

 

[Maistre Gracey]

As suggested in the other thread, I think the length of the pass should be linked to the length of your DVC contract. If it was flat out 'lifetime', the pass would be of much greater value for a child versus a 50 year old.
If the pass was for 38 years (my VWL contract), even at $250/year (very cheap for PAP), that would be $9500. Yes, we will pay more in the long run, but that looks like a stiff number when you buy for the whole family.

MG

 

[wisbucky]

Maistre Gracey, I would have to believe that if Disney were to offer lifetime passes it would be to promote more them park visits by members than anything else. In order to really sell a lifetime pass I would think they would have to offer it for a price of lets say $3000.00 per person. I would really be interested in hearing from DVC members who have been members for 8 years or more to see if they visit the theme parks during their stay and if so how many days at a time.

 

[jaysue]

To be mathematical about this

If you take 38 years of payments of $350 per year and apply a discount rate of 6% you get a present value of $5,196.11

7% = $4,617.72

10% = $3,406.43

Regardless of price there would be a large risk to the buyer of putting this money up front for tickets

thanks
jaysue

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Originally posted by jaysue
To be mathematical about this

If you take 38 years of payments of $350 per year and apply a discount rate of 6% you get a present value of $5,196.11

7% = $4,617.72

10% = $3,406.43

Regardless of price there would be a large risk to the buyer of putting this money up front for tickets

thanks
jaysue

jaysue, while I am sure your math is correct, can you explain how you came up with those numbers? I always thought I was pretty good with numbers, but I must be missing boat on this one.

MG

 

[manning]

It sure would be interesting try to come up with a price. Imagine trying to figure inflation increases over a long period of time.

 

[Tigger1]

I agree with buying a pass that expires with DVC. It would keep members going to the parks, spending more $$$ at the parks, spending more vacations at WDW. I would be less likely to sell or rent my points if I had that membership lifetime pass. It would be great to go into retirement knowing that my tickets are paid too. The last 20 or 30 yrs of my membership I likely will not be doing many rides, maybe watch a few shows. I think this would be a good investment for Disney. I think a good price could be x amount of $$ per year of membership left. Maybe we could trade points for a membership. Disney could then rent those points for $$ to potential future members.

Tigger

 

[Pa@okw95]

They would have to be pro-rated according to ones age. I will be 100 when my contract with DVC comes to an end. I have already pretty much have had it with the parks, they just are going too much for the thrill rides, the last ride they built that I was interested in going on was Splash Mountain. They took away my favorite rides at Epcot. We were spoiled with free tickets for years and all we did as a rule was hang around the parks for a hour or two. I would buy a NO RIDE TICKET, but then they would have to have employee checking each ride for tickets on everyone so I don't think that would ever happen. I also have cancer which will become a factor in many peoples lives as they grow older, so life time for me may not be the best idea to come down the pike, but for others it would get the members back to the parks. I know I don't go much anymore.

 

[pumpkinboy]

Well JaySue, thx for doing the Present Value calculation, so I won't have to (cuz you know I would need to if you hadn't). As for the discount rate, I recall when I was trying to figure Disney's internal discount rate for DVC 1, I came out with something in the range of 10.9%.

If they were to offer us each 38 yr passes for the rest of our DVC ownership period at say $3,400, I am not sure we would jump at them.

Of course in the time-value-of-money calculations, any of the years beyond say 40 have present values of pennies each. So the cost differential between a child and a healthy, non-smoker adult would be negligible for a lifetime pass.

Another thing to consider is whether they really want all those members taking up space in the parks when that space could be taken up by high-spending commando-style non-member, who don't already know how to extract the maximum discount ...

 

[Disney4ever4569]

I think one of the main reasons Disney sells DVC at the prices that they have sold it at is because they know that you come down there and buy park tickets, souviners, food, ect... After all the money we paid for DVC I don't think many people would be interested in spending thousands more for park tickets. I know when my wife and I go down there we only spend about half our time at the parks.

 

[OneMoreTry]

I think they would offer it for $2000 to $3000. Maybe even $1500 if they were hungry for cash flow. Enough to discourage bargain hunters, and attract spenders -- so they can still make bucketloads off restaurants and other sales. And if they invest smart the money will bring in even more revenue.

A lot of the passes would gather dust at times as peoples' interests fluctuate.

I'm sure they've taken notice of how discounted passes for ski resorts caused revenue to skyrocket without as much increase in slope traffic as might have been expected.

 

[ducklite]

I don't think I'd buy one. About three years ago, DH and I realized that we don't go to WDW for the theme parks, but rather for the resort experience. We often go into the parks less than half the days we stay at WDW, and sometimes then simply to dine.

As our son is getting older, he's also spending less time at the parks. So over the next couple years, we're looking to use our points for things other then WDW DVC resorst. Perhaps a little time at Vero, or DCL, but most likely we'll use them for concierge collection stays at other resorts and hotels, or rent them and travel to other places we'd like to visit.

I think a lot of DVC'ers with younger kids will also reach this same conclusion as their kids get older.

Anne

 

[sgtpet]

Why would they offer it at all? They are not exactly going crazy giving us significant discounts. Most trades out are at a premium not discount. I think humans will grow wings naturally before Disney offers lifetime passes for DVC members. C'mon folks, let's work on getting discounts on Annual Passes.

 

[jaysue]

MG, here is a good link:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/082703.asp

Pumpkinboy, for good form at a discount rate 10.9%, 38 years of $350 per year compounded once per year would be the same as $3,148.02 today

MG, in essence assuming a rate of 10.9% you would be indifferent (economics term ) between the choice of $3,148.02 today or $350 once per year for the next 38 years

If we move the rate higher, the present value decreases since the future value of money is lower, likewise if we move the rate lower, the present value increases as the future value of money is not as low



thanks
jaysue

 

[CRSNDSNY]

Don't you think that if DVC members were offered lifetime passes it would mean less exchanges? I think if I were investing additional thousands in a park pass I would be less likely to trade out of DVC for vacation because I would want to continue to get my money's worth from my passes.

 

[Johnnie Fedora]

If its like any of the other "special" DVCer offers Disney promotes, it's likely to cost 25% more than if you purchased back-to-back APs. Moo.

What they should do is link discounts on APs to the number of DVC points you own. The more you buy/own, the bigger the AP discount you get.

 

[calypso*a*go-go]

Forget the Lifetime Pass... I'd feel fortunate just to get Florida Resident rates on AP's. Especially the "Seasonal" pass!

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Originally posted by jaysue
MG, here is a good link:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/082703.asp

Pumpkinboy, for good form at a discount rate 10.9%, 38 years of $350 per year compounded once per year would be the same as $3,148.02 today

MG, in essence assuming a rate of 10.9% you would be indifferent (economics term ) between the choice of $3,148.02 today or $350 once per year for the next 38 years

If we move the rate higher, the present value decreases since the future value of money is lower, likewise if we move the rate lower, the present value increases as the future value of money is not as low



thanks
jaysue

Thanx, jaysue. I THINK I got it now...

Anyway, if that was indeed the selling price, I would buy. That formula does not seem to be too advantageous
to Disney, though!

MG

 

[sgtdisney]

As a long time DVC member I can say that we are going to the parks less now than when we joined. When we had the free passes, we spent at least part of every day we were at OKW in one of the parks. We would eat meals there, make special trips into EPCOT Center (as it was called then) to dine in World Showcase. Now, as time has passed, we no longer have the free passes and as far as I am concerned no useful discounts on park admission. So now we go down to OKW and enjoy the resort. We either buy a 4 day ticket and spread it over 2 trips or just day to day passes.

This year we will be in Orlando for 8 nights. We plan on spending two days in the parks since the kids like MK and Epcot thats where we will go. The other days we will be out of the parks, enjoying the resorts and very probably eating and shopping off property. We may even go to Seaworld or Universal this time. I can honestly say if Disney offered some viable discount passes to DVC members we would spend more time in the parks dining, etc., but since they don't we go elsewhere.

And now to answer the original question I don't think that I would consider buying lifetime passes. Too much can happen in your life that could potentially make the investment a bad one in my opinion.

 

[doubletrouble_vb]

I'm having a hard time seeing the value to myself for this one. There is no way I'd advance pay 8 to 10 years to get a life time. I haven't put in that many days at Disney yet and I've been going for 10 years. Which should mean the value would be pretty high to Disney.

A good discount on the regular AP would be a good idea. Disney could counterbalance some of the issues with that by restricting them to people who had been owners for "x" years...because it'd be reasonable to assume that someone whose been an owner for one or two years will probably go into the parks when they stay at Disney...whereas someone who has had their unit longer might choose to buy a 7-day pass and spread it out over a couple of years (my personal favorite).