Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[wiihoo888]

It depends on the point chart, but I would not be surprised if 1BR villas are fairly available at 7 months at non-peak times of the year.

All depends. There are a whole lot of Poly owners getting more points expecting those larger point values. Also, if some Poly points go into the trust, I don’t think there’s gonna be a whole lot of difference between Riviera room and Poly room point value. If the room size is needed, it will be in demand

 

[tom1944]

There are now 3 resorts with 1 bed/2 bath so if you want that type of room with SAP you can book them.

Probably 10 out of 10 times for the majority of the year. If you can only get POLY once out of those 10 no reason to complain.

If you need it more often buy POLY points

 

[maui22]

Combining PVB rooms with @aka Charles information from the diagram of the floor we know about. Entirely possible the number of rooms is different for tower because the diagram may very well be different for those floors.

Current data makes it appear there will be:

• 20 bungalows
• 360 studios (longhouses)
• 6 2BR dedicated
• 30 duo studios
• 88 1BRs
• 138 studios
• He excludes the 9th and 10th floor but it seems there are 8 rooms likely 4 GVs, but maybe 8

Once the resort is sold out...
I would be shocked if duo studios and 2BRs are available at 7 months unless someone cancels. I would also be surprised if 1BRs are available at 7 months because many are going to be combined with lockoff studios to form 2BRs (much like BWV).

I suspect tower will be hard to book at least for the first several years, because people like to try a new resort.

Pretty clear longhouse studios are an abundant supply.

 

[Sandisw]

Yes, you’re right, Palm Financial! Thanks!

In any case, I don’t think Palmetto Trust would be a problem. They probably already know how they’re going to integrate it into the DVC structure.

If you read the filings it’s clear this is to be related to DVC because if the trust no longer is, the name must be changed to 215 Trust Association. And, if that name is taken, then any new name must be approved by DVD.

 

[Sandisw]

Combining PVB rooms with @aka Charles information from the diagram of the floor we know about. Entirely possible the number of rooms is different for tower because the diagram may very well be different for those floors.

Current data makes it appear there will be:

• 20 bungalows
• 360 studios (longhouses)
• 6 2BR dedicated
• 30 duo studios
• 88 1BRs
• 138 studios
• He excludes the 9th and 10th floor but it seems there are 8 rooms likely 4 GVs, but maybe 8

Once the resort is sold out...
I would be shocked if duo studios and 2BRs are available at 7 months unless someone cancels. I would also be surprised if 1BRs are available at 7 months because many are going to be combined with lockoff studios to form 2BRs (much like BWV).

I suspect tower will be hard to book at least for the first several years, because people like to try a new resort.

Pretty clear longhouse studios are an abundant supply.

Wild speculation, but it doesn’t mean they will end up adding all of these rooms to PVB…just like with RIV, units are still not declared and they never have to be.

All resorts are only guaranteed to the initial declaration of units…and I would be surprised to see them declare all the units at once. I bet we are a good 6 months away from finding out more specifics regarding rooms.

The fact that they had the slide for CFW at the meeting, but none for Poly tower seems a little odd, given it is supposed to open in late 2024.

 

[CarolynFH]

If you read the filings it’s clear this is to be related to DVC because if the trust no longer is, the name must be changed to 215 Trust Association. And, if that name is taken, then any new name must be approved by DVD.

Thanks. I was just trying to reassure someone else that Disney would make sure the name used for marketing purposes was Disney branded, not Palmetto.

 

[maui22]

Wild speculation, but it doesn’t mean they will end up adding all of these rooms to PVB…just like with RIV, units are still not declared and they never have to be.

All resorts are only guaranteed to the initial declaration of units…and I would be surprised to see them declare all the units at once. I bet we are a good 6 months away from finding out more specifics regarding rooms.

The fact that they had the slide for CFW at the meeting, but none for Poly tower seems a little odd, given it is supposed to open in late 2024.

Agree, don't expect them to declare all at once. That's why mentioned the once sold out part.

The fewer rooms added to PVB, means it will be even more limited for booking these new rooms. During phased declaration it likely is very hectic to book tower.

If they implement the trust at PVB, should make things even worse for PVB owners during active sales and also once it's sold out.

 

[mamaofsix]

That’s not true with respect to 1 bedroom lake view units. Those aren’t available at peak times, but they are available off-peak.

That was true a year ago, but now that BPK is sold out, it seems like all 1 bedrooms are pretty scarce throughout the year - at least if you want to book a week and not a few days?

I guess I was just trying to say that it seems like the 1, 2 and 3 bedroom units at PVB might book up before 7 months, but studios would be available. Based on data from how things are going now the VGF sold out.

 

[winnieforme]

just got Poly for $130/pp...not sure if i should keep it

 

[wiihoo888]

just got Poly for $130/pp...not sure if i should keep it

FWIW I e-mailed my guide a few days ago about my uncertainty. Gave the reasons why I am reconsidering and asked that it be passed up the chain. Don’t know if I’m going to keep the contract or not still, but wanted to be sure that they were aware of the discomfort out here right now. What that will do….who knows

 

[winnieforme]

FWIW I e-mailed my guide a few days ago about my uncertainty. Gave the reasons why I am reconsidering and asked that it be passed up the chain. Don’t know if I’m going to keep the contract or not still, but wanted to be sure that they were aware of the discomfort out here right now. What that will do….who knows

yeah, they really should address this with the owners/buyers

 

[skier_pete]

I spoke to 3 guides this week who all separately said although they knew nothing their personal belief would be that it would likely be a new association based on the way DVD was moving forward. Our resale PVB just went through ROFR yesterday. Doesn’t this behavior seems so strange? Why aren’t they buying back the resale contracts??

They rarely buy contracts back for resorts that are on current sale. The reason is that buying back a contract they only make maybe $50-100 per point, whereas the "new" points have somewhere in the range of a $150-200 per point profit margin.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

They rarely buy contracts back for resorts that are on current sale. The reason is that buying back a contract they only make maybe $50-100 per point, whereas the "new" points have somewhere in the range of a $150-200 per point profit margin.

I know that it will be in active sale, but PVB isn’t right now, probably not for another 6mos at least. It just made sense to me to buy back PVB resale at its low prices so people have more incentive to buy direct if they are having a hard time purchasing on the resale market knowing that Disney is just going to ROFR them. It would drive resale prices up making direct even more appealing if the difference between resale and direct isn’t all that much. Like it was with VGF this past summer with the great incentives.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

If we use VGF as a guide, there are never 1 or 2 bedrooms available at the 7 month mark, any time of year. You have to own there to get them.

There are studios available at 7 months during non-peak times at VGF now that the 2nd phase has been added. I expect Poly will be the same because the ratio of studios to multi-bedroom units is similar.

I would be very surprised if Poly 1 and 2 bedrooms aren’t significantly higher than VGF rooms on average. Maybe the “non-view” will be a similar range but I think that anything with a theme park view will be far higher.

 

[intamin]

I would be very surprised if Poly 1 and 2 bedrooms aren’t significantly higher than VGF rooms on average. Maybe the “non-view” will be a similar range but I think that anything with a theme park view will be far higher.

Yep. If it’s close at all to VGF’s point chart I’d consider it a win but I don’t think it will be. It’s been 10 years since DVC made the charts for VGF, I’d be surprised if they didn’t take this opportunity to make Poly’s significantly higher given that they pretty much have a clean slate to work with. RIV’s point charts are high, VGF’s are higher but I expect Poly being a monorail resort with a theme park view to be the record setter.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

Yep. If it’s close at all to VGF’s point chart I’d consider it a win but I don’t think it will be. It’s been 10 years since DVC made the charts for VGF, I’d be surprised if they didn’t take this opportunity to make Poly’s significantly higher given that they pretty much have a clean slate to work with. RIV’s point charts are high, VGF’s are higher but I expect Poly being a monorail resort with a theme park view to be the record setter.

 

[zavandor]

Yep. If it’s close at all to VGF’s point chart I’d consider it a win but I don’t think it will be. It’s been 10 years since DVC made the charts for VGF, I’d be surprised if they didn’t take this opportunity to make Poly’s significantly higher given that they pretty much have a clean slate to work with. RIV’s point charts are high, VGF’s are higher but I expect Poly being a monorail resort with a theme park view to be the record setter.

For the new building at VGF, standard and Lake view have the same point cost of the older studios at the original building.

So I expect that standard and Lake view studios at the tower will have the same cost as current PVB, 1BR will be double that. 2BR slightly less than 3 times that.

But there are ways they can try to inflate the charts.
I'm not sure if the Lake views from the new tower will be significantly better than LV at the longhouses. It seems similar to me. If they classify them as theme park view instead, that could be higher.
Maybe they can invent a pool view which is in between standard and Lake as well.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

For the new building at VGF, standard and Lake view have the same point cost of the older studios at the original building.

So I expect that standard and Lake view studios at the tower will have the same cost as current PVB, 1BR will be double that. 2BR slightly less than 3 times that.

But there are ways they can try to inflate the charts.
I'm not sure if the Lake views from the new tower will be significantly better than LV at the longhouses. It seems similar to me. If they classify them as theme park view instead, that could be higher.
Maybe they can invent a pool view which is in between standard and Lake as well.

I think extrapolating from the room points parity at VGF is wrong because VGF added flips of hotel rooms with fewer amenities than the old Deluxe Studios. I don't think we can assume that the same category will have the same points here-- however, I do think they can just name them differently with maybe a token number of "Standard views" that match the old longhouses, but a bigger category of "Florida View" or something for the higher floors that face away from MK, perhaps "Pool View" for others, and then all of the MK facing rooms being "Theme Park View" or "Fireworks View" and much higher than the LV at the longhouses.

 

[BamaGuy44]

Yep. If it’s close at all to VGF’s point chart I’d consider it a win but I don’t think it will be. It’s been 10 years since DVC made the charts for VGF, I’d be surprised if they didn’t take this opportunity to make Poly’s significantly higher given that they pretty much have a clean slate to work with. RIV’s point charts are high, VGF’s are higher but I expect Poly being a monorail resort with a theme park view to be the record setter.

Not really a clean slate though, is it? They already have a point chart for studios at Poly, would they really have a higher chart at the tower? They didn't do that with Kidani or CCV. And the ratio between room types is roughly the same at all the WDW resorts. 1 BR is studio x 2, and 2 BR is studio x 2.3 or 2.4

I could see a "Theme Park View" studio going off the rails, but for standard view I think it will be in line with current Poly studios. Then again I thought new association for sure so what do I know

 

[Genie+]

I have no idea what the point chart for Poly 2 will be.
This is just an example of how the point chart effects sellable points and profit.

The ratio at PVB is 5 standard rooms for each ‘Lake View’. Poly is a little challenged to call it theme Park View like VGF and BLT due to the distance. It’s a great angle on the fireworks but hard to see the park. Pre-TRON photo:


Maybe they’ll add a middle view between Standard and Lake View.

Standard will be parking lot view, Lake View anything looking at the lagoon, and everything else Resort View.



Instead of the 83.3% and 16.6% split on PVB1 rooms, maybe 3 PVB2 views will be split closer to equal.

Taking mid-season (#4) the difference in sellable points for 100 studios (likely near average)::

This is all ball park but that would ultimately result in about $35,000,000 extra sales over PVB1 point chart.

SV 146pts x 83.3 rooms x 52 weeks = 632,414
LV 174pts x 16.6 rooms x 52 weeks = 150,197
Total 782,611

Adding the room category and balancing the split with PVB2

SV 146pts x 33.3rooms x 52 weeks = 252,814
RV 160pts x 33.3 rooms x 52 weeks = 277,056
LV 174pts x 33.3 rooms x 52 weeks = 301,298
Total 831,168

Ok, the difference is almost 49,000 points but there‘s actually 360 rooms at PVB1 and PVB2 is expected to be similar size. So I took the 100 studio example and multiply by 3.6 and now we’re looking at ~175,000 extra points created with nothing but the room categories’ point value changed. Approx point value ~$200pp and that’s $35m EXTRA.

If the existing PVB longhouses were able to do this before it sold it also would’ve resulted in 175,000 more points to sell.
The main point I’m trying to make is DVD doesn’t need to have a crazy point chart with Poly2 to increase profit. I’m expecting them to lean on the ratios, not the points/night. 1BR and 2BR will just like we typically see, roughly 2 and 3 times the points of the studios.