Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[Jack Kerouac]

I’m Poly resale and I voted 100% different association. I was way off.

For as indifferent as I was, I’m actually surprised that I’m excited (mainly because now I have an answer).

The tower point chart will probably come with a large broom. It will be used to shove me back into my studio at Moorea. Plus my precious lake view probably just got more difficult to book.

On a related note, I never imagined I would be lucky enough to be able to book a room at the new tower at 11 months with not enough points.

 

[intamin]

Something else to consider, how will this affect studio availability? If the point charts for the 1BRs and 2BRs are high which we all know they will be, how will this affect the 7 month availability and even the 11 month availability of Poly studios?

 

[maui22]

If I remember right, people say 2% of points are resold each year. PVB has roughly 4 million points. If my math is right…that would mean only 80,000 points would be resold in a normal year. More may opt to wait to see the final product or raise asking prices so there may not be near the resold points over the next year.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Do you guys think now would be the best time to bite the bullet on resale contract?
It looks like contract Prices are already starting to be edited to be increased. Will things cool off after this initial increase happening now due to this news? Do you think it’s a better strategy to wait until things cool off a bit or to bite the bullet now?

I think there’s going to be quick bump and then things will cool off and settle as the longer term effects of no ROFR and a loosening market continue take hold. The best time to buy Poly resale was yesterday. Now that this news has come out, I’d wait, or I think you’ll end up overpaying.

 

[Doberge]

That’s exactly why I said they have no incentive to do so lol. If they really cared about the bungalows being rented out, they could’ve redistributed those points to the studios but haven’t done so the whole time. I don’t expect them to but it would’ve been nice.

I'd be more worried if we didn't have the 2025 point chart out. Before it was released I had a little concern they might shift a few points from bungalows to longhouse studios and then carry that higher studio cost over to the tower to effectively sell more tower points than what we'll likely eventually see. It was hard to not be cynical about Disney squeezing extra revunue, but my fears were abated by the 2025 point chart.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I'd expect Poly studios to the require same points as longhouse studios, similar to how VGF BPK charts were made to be same points the original VGF building charts. Considering how similar the Poly and VGF point charts are I think VGF is best comp. Like, take whatever the VGF 1, 2, and 3 br percentages over studios and apply the same to Poly.

Yes, I agree that the standard studios will be the same, however the Tower studios will be smaller rooms with a max occupancy of two.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

I may actually consider selling based on this news. The only unfortunate part is we have two trips in 2024 that use our 2024 points. But I would consider selling it to get more points at a less desirable resort, since I have three boys and we will eventually need 1-2BR and I don’t want to book them at a resort with high point charts.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I think there’s going to be quick bump and then things will cool off and settle as the longer term effects of no ROFR and a loosening market take hold. The best time to buy Poly resale was yesterday. Now that this news has come out, I wait, or I think you’ll end up overpaying.

I agree. For those that know stocks this was like an IPO or a mergers and acquisition where the news will send the stock flying but if one is patient enough they will be able to get in at a decent price once the hype has cooled off.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

If they rebalance the bungalows close to a 2 bed, we will almost certainly buy in. They are currently too high to justify using points on, but if they cut them by 35-50% they’ll book like crazy and you’ll need to be an owner to get access.

If they rebalance the bungalows to reduce them by 50 percent and increase the studios to make up for that I think they’re looking at a lawsuit. That would significantly devalue what current owners who bought for studios bought into, and it’s not at all clear that the contract allows them to o do something like that.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Think a lot of people also bought direct RIV points to make sure they had access to the tower and are now disappointed that it turns out they didn't need to.

Yes, I think this is a big part of it. I also think there are a lot of direct/grandfathered owners generally who are upset that resale owners will get to book this.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

To me, the fact that they are adding it gives makes me wonder if resale restections might be going away. My guess is most RIv and VDH owners don’t care abut whether others have them or not. I certainly don’t.

But, I think having three main resorts (forget AUL )selling with them…assuming CFW gets them….and one without makes the idea worthless and IMO, DVD loose credibility that this is a strategy for them.

Maybe the slower VDH sales are finally enough to make them reconsider them.

This decision coupled with that recent survey about new “all-availability” products (that necessarily would be totally opposite their restriction strategy) make me wonder this as well. I mean, there is something to be said for the fact that the other “industry-standard” timeshare developers that use resale restrictions include some of the worst of the worst (companies like Westgate). Does Disney reallly want to be part of that race towards the bottom? Wyndham and Marriott certainly don’t devalue their products like this. I, for one, hope they reconsider.

 

[Jlo85]

Just dusting my shoulders off since I was right, but I think people overthink this. Disney probably doesn’t like having multiple associations at one resort for a variety of reasons. CCV/BRV was the exception, not the rule.

Future independent associations will likely all have resale restrictions. I’d expect Fort Wilderness to have them as well.

 

[Disney_escape]

I don’t necessarily know this will push people to RIV at all. I have been holding off adding more points because I really want to own at poly tower. I was thinking about adding on at RIV with the new incentives with the assumption the new tower will be a new association and I could still have access with direct RIV points. Instead, I will just forego direct completely and buy poly resale… I am still going to hold off as I don’t think this announcement made anything official.

I think DVC really left money on the table with this, a new association would have had Existing Poly people, resale poly people, FOMO people and more buying direct (I'm one of them) but off to the resale game I go.

 

[Doberge]

Yes, I agree that the standard studios will be the same, however the Tower studios will be smaller rooms with a max occupancy of two.

Yeah, we're on the same page. I think the Poly duos will be priced between a Riv tower studio and a Riv standard studio. I actually think the Poly duos will be the same points like a BLT standard studio, and people aren't going to like that.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I may actually consider selling based on this news. The only unfortunate part is we have two trips in 2024 that use our 2024 points. But I would consider selling it to get more points at a less desirable resort, since I have three boys and we will eventually need 1-2BR and I don’t want to book them at a resort with high point charts.

I don’t think that’s a good strategy. Transaction costs for selling and rebuying are high (commissions, closing costs, etc.), maintenance fees are fine for poly, and using poly as sleeparound points is therefore fine. You don’t have a ton to gain by trying to sell poly to turn around and try to buy something like SSR, especially given poly’s lengthy remaining contract length.

 

[emchen]

The exact phrasing doesn’t matter because it was an answer given directly to the question of whether it will be the same association. They left themselves some wiggle room to change their minds, but people who think the language is the same same and nothing has changed are grasping at straws.

Guys I really think we should consider the possibility that they are not as in tune with the speculation here on Disboards.

The question asked was specifically about that. They answered ‘that’s the plan’. I don’t know what else you could want.

It’s not about what I want, its about lack of precision and specificity.

I’m not a skilled Disboarder, but I’ll jump in. I do not and cannot believe that the representing body of DVC would intentionally play a game of Guess the Double Entendre with the audience. This is especially true after the question was very specifically asking about the association and they said it would be “the same” to that exact question. If they didn’t know, weren’t able to say, or the answer was no, they would have (and should have) said so. Especially after the entire room applauded and cheered as a result of hearing it would be the same. They know the audience has a firm grasp of the obvious that the Poly tower sits on the property of the Polynesian resort. They weren’t giving us that info. Giving information that the audience clearly took to mean one thing and meaning the opposite without clarification would be one of the worst things they have ever done to their membership base. And while they are capable of mistakes, I don’t think they made this one.

We are not jumping the gun, I promise. We have analyzed DVC for a long time now. We may not always be right, but we are sure on this one that this was a confirmation they are currently planning for it to be the same association and they won’t go back on this. Especially, after how it was received by the room.

I wish someone from the post-reception followed up and got specific confirmation as I tried over here with the general manager of VDH.

And there were several other execs in the room to correct her if she had misspoken.

This is good news everyone! Embrace it!

We didn’t have video but her voice sounded surprised by the reaction, like she was saying, “huh, didn’t think stating the same thing would get such a big applause!”…

They wanted to announce now because they don’t want people to wait through Cabin and continued RIV sales for an answer.

If this answer steers you that way, they don’t want you to be paralyzed with choices waiting to find out.

So they made sure it was asked and answered.

This is how I know it’s not a sleight of hand. The whole purpose of saying it was supposed to be to provide buying clarity.

If it keeps being misinterpreted as them being too cute by half, I expect that they’ll clarify.

That may be, and I certainly am not arguing that they are be imprecise on purpose, but did anyone try to get corroboration from execs during the reception?

Again, the GM of VDH was enthusiastically affirmative when I first asked him, “so being part of the same resort means the same association?” He instantly said yes, and nodded. Thats when I clarified my question by asking, “will a current owner of Poly be able to book “the new Poly tower” at 11mo?” He had a blank look like he wasn’t sure what I was asking him. I elaborated some more and then he emphatically said, “oh no! My personal opinion is that it will be a separate association!” “You are talking about member priveleges and the 7-11mo window!”…“A person can buy/own two houses next to each other”. Then he continued and elaborated that the facilities and infrastructure being put it makes him certain that it will be a separate association. He ended by telling me an analogy of one person can own two separate houses…

So….all that to say, it may be that Poly2 ends up being in the same association as Poly1, but, in the absence of other reports from the meeting in orlando, of members getting confirmation from other execs…i think it is premature to conclude resale restrictions are dead and that there will be the same association for Poly2. Thats just what I think. Tell me what you think of my interaction with the GM of VDH!

 

[Sandisw]

I think DVC really left money on the table with this, a new association would have had Existing Poly people, resale poly people, FOMO people and more buying direct (I'm one of them) but off to the resale game I go.

I think they did too…but, they obviously have info we don’t that they feel adding it and not selling it with restrictions was better.

Which is why I said I wonder if this could be a hint that they may be rethinking the whole restrictons strategy

 

[intamin]

Never in doubt
View attachment 816195

We got some cheaters in here with a couple more people adding on to new association

 

[Jack Kerouac]

I don’t think that’s a good strategy. Transaction costs for selling and rebuying are high (commissions, closing costs, etc.), maintenance fees are fine for poly, and using poly as sleeparound points is therefore fine. You don’t have a ton to gain by trying to sell poly to turn around and try to buy something like SSR, especially given poly’s lengthy remaining contract length.

We bought in at 149 per point last year and received 163 2023 points for free. I view my DVC contract like a stock (but I bought it as an investment in my family). If it goes high enough, it might make sense to sell. But I wouldn’t move forward if it doesn’t make sense considering the transaction costs on both sides. But yeah, I’m coming around to the idea that we may have bought Poly and we’ll use the points to stay elsewhere.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

I think DVC really left money on the table with this, a new association would have had Existing Poly people, resale poly people, FOMO people and more buying direct (I'm one of them) but off to the resale game I go.

I think they know what some of us have been saying for years now.. the resale restrictions are causing direct sales to under-perform. They wish they could put that genie back in the bottle, but for now this is the best way for them to side-step the problem.