Keeping Ukraine in our thoughts and prayers here

[penn19]

This is now the biggest refugee crisis since WW2. At what point does the world say enough. They are now bombing schools, hospitals and residential areas. How is this not considered war crimes? So very upsetting.

This is my thought. I don’t want a war but we promised (didn’t we?) that we’d have their back. How can we (a collective we) stand by and allow all of this to happen?

 

[JimMIA]

I don't have any doubt that many aspects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine have been disappointing to Putin. Advances everywhere have been slower than they expected. But as @punkin says, they have done much better in the south than the north, as shown on the map below.

I see two big threats to Ukraine in the near term. One is if Russia succeeds in taking or isolating Odessa. If that happens, Ukraine will be essentially landlocked -- no outlet to the Black Sea. Odessa is also Ukraine's 3rd largest city.

The second big threat is that the Russians succeed in surrounding Ukraine's major cities, which would make resupply a much more difficult challenge. I believe they already have Kharkiv (Ukraine's 2nd largest city) surrounded. No matter how brave the Ukrainians are, without food, medical supplies, and ammunition their situation could rapidly become hopeless.

The two sides are supposed to meet again tomorrow, but those talks have not been fruitful so far. Russia has agreed to provide safe evacuation corridors to reduce civilian casualties, but they haven't kept their word yet.

Here's today's BBC map showing Russian progress.

 

[JimMIA]

This is my thought. I don’t want a war but we promised (didn’t we?) that we’d have their back. How can we (a collective we) stand by and allow all of this to happen?

We, and all the Western countries, are walking a tightrope.

Ukraine is NOT a NATO member, and therefore we have neither a treaty obligation nor a legal authority to defend them. The same is true of Moldova. We have done as much as we can, but the further we push the envelope the more risky the situation becomes.

Yes, Putin is committing war crimes -- what else is new? That's what Putin does -- in Afghanistan, in Syria, in Georgia, in Chechnya, and now in Ukraine.

Our best hope for success is that the sanctions work, work quickly, and really create severe hardship for the Russian people. Seizing oligarch's yacht is fun and sexy, but it has no effect on Putin or the Russian people. Only real pain will cause a change of behavior.

 

[JLTraveling]

This is now the biggest refugee crisis since WW2. At what point does the world say enough. They are now bombing schools, hospitals and residential areas. How is this not considered war crimes? So very upsetting.

It IS considered war crimes. Being investigated by the International Criminal Court at The Hague as we speak. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ity-in-ukraine/ar-AAUqYmz?ocid=BingNewsSearch

This is my thought. I don’t want a war but we promised (didn’t we?) that we’d have their back. How can we (a collective we) stand by and allow all of this to happen?

Because we're one of the two nuclear superpowers. Russia is the other. No nuclear power has ever directly engaged in hot war with another nuclear power, because it would lead to mutually assured destruction. It's horrific to watch this play out, but the only other alternative is nuclear war, with tens of millions across the globe dead within the first hour. Not a great choice.

 

[penn19]

It IS considered war crimes. Being investigated by the International Criminal Court at The Hague as we speak. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ity-in-ukraine/ar-AAUqYmz?ocid=BingNewsSearch


Because we're one of the two nuclear superpowers. Russia is the other. No nuclear power has ever directly engaged in hot war with another nuclear power, because it would lead to mutually assured destruction. It's horrific to watch this play out, but the only other alternative is nuclear war, with tens of millions across the globe dead within the first hour. Not a great choice.

I don’t want to be making these decisions but do we really think Putin wants to chance a nuclear war?

 

[punkin]

I agree with you, @JimMIA, but this map is misleading. Crimea has been in Russian hands since 2014 and the Donbass as good as. They are not part of this campaign. So Russian gains are much less that it shows. Also, Ukraine is a huge country. I can't see Russia holding it. Putin definitely stepped in a pile of manure here. But the odds of winning the war are still in his favor. The odds of successfully occupying Ukraine are getting worse every day.
Odessa will be difficult to keep as well. It's a partisans' paradise under the city in the catacombs and has a long and glorious smuggling history. Odessans are not Ukrainian nor Russian. They are Odessans!

 

[punkin]

I don’t want to be making these decisions but do we really think Putin wants to chance a nuclear war?

Is he crazy, merely unstable or just calculating? What if we guess wrong?

 

[penn19]

Is he crazy, merely unstable or just calculating? What if we guess wrong?

This is what keeps me up at night.

 

[JimMIA]

I agree with you, @JimMIA, but this map is misleading. Crimea has been in Russian hands since 2014 and the Donbass as good as. They are not part of this campaign.

Right. I think what the BBC is trying to show with the map is areas that are firmly in Russian control vs areas they are just recently advancing into.

They have made significant progress in the south, though. That whole area north of Crimea between Mariupol and Kherson is all newly-occupied territory.

 

[JimMIA]

I don’t want to be making these decisions but do we really think Putin wants to chance a nuclear war?

Don't forget that an all-out, mutually-assured destruction nuclear war is not the only option. He could use tactical nuclear weapons, or other WMD's only against Ukraine. Then what?

 

[penn19]

Don't forget that an all-out, mutually-assured destruction nuclear war is not the only option. He could use tactical nuclear weapons, or other WMD's only against Ukraine. Then what?

I don’t know. I feel like we need Seal Team six. I hate saying that. I just don’t know but I feel we aren’t doing all we can

 

[dvcgirl67]

I don’t know. I feel like we need Seal Team six. I hate saying that. I just don’t know but I feel we aren’t doing all we can

I agree...we're not. I'm not saying we need to go to war with Russia, but we need to...and we can....do much more. Seal Team six can't help with any sort of elimination plan here....this isn't a compound in Pakistan....he's in the Kremlin with the most loyal of loyal forces around him, and they're surrounded by an army of "yes men". And in a country that has a huge welfare state....that depends on the government to feed them.

There's a lot we can do, and it might be uncomfortable and painful for the rest of us for quite awhile, Stop talking about the yachts and jets and penthouse apartments all over the world. Take them....all. Putin's mistress and their four young children are hiding out in Switzerland....send them home to the motherland. Send all the college kids home. Russians working in NATO countries....send them home too. No sports, no cultural events...nothing. I'm paraphrasing, but I read that a Canadian leader/politician said something like...."you don't get to invade Ukraine by day and park your yachts on the Côte d'Azur by night.

 

[punkin]

I don’t know. I feel like we need Seal Team six. I hate saying that. I just don’t know but I feel we aren’t doing all we can

We can start by not importing Russian oil. At least the US can... it's tough but we can survive. Now western Europe (particularly Germany) is completely dependant on Russian oil and natural gas.

 

[pigletto]

I agree there is much more we can be doing but I also believe it’s in the works. I do have trust in the measures that NATO countries have taken so far, and I think they are ongoing. We were told they would take time. And hopefully when the sanctions become painful enough we will see Russians demand change.

Its agonizing because as we watch the images coming out of the Ukraine we realize there is NO time and the time is NOW to help them. It’s not going to happen that way. We aren’t going to be able to offer an immediate fix for those poor people and many of them will die and be displaced. Its not ok. It’s not acceptable.

But if we assist with a no fly zone over Ukraine, or put one official boot on Ukranian ground we will be declaring war with Russia and millions more innocents will suffer and die for that decision. We can offer Ukraine as much assistance as possible without declaring war, but war would mean devastation for millions more people.

 

[JimMIA]

We can start by not importing Russian oil. At least the US can... it's tough but we can survive. Now western Europe (particularly Germany) is completely dependant on Russian oil and natural gas.

Agree, and longer-term we need to do even more. We need to be energy independent ourselves, and we also need to be able to assure Western Europe of reliable sources of oil and natural gas. The natural gas part is very complicated, but we can't have Russia blackmailing Europe like this.

 

[Buzz Rules]

NATO to Putin:

Just trying to lighten the mood folks. We all just need to relax. I have faith in the West to do all that needs to be done. Also many countries are having elections this year, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. ❤

 

[Dan Murphy]

Over 15,000 Russian protestors arrested in Russia so far. No freedom.

 

[prairie_girl]

Jim you really shouldn't laugh at something so dang serious. It's a war in Ukraine for pete's sake. Have some respect

Between the Kanye thread and this one, there's some really dark juju on these boards lately.

Another couple stepping up are Ashton Kushner and Mila Kunis, who is from Ukraine. They pledged to match up to $3 Million to aid displaced Ukranians:

https://www.nbcnews.com/pop-culture...tch-3-million-aid-ukrainian-refugee-rcna18742

I know this is probably a typo, but his last name is Kutcher, not Kushner.

 

[RamblingMad]

We can start by not importing Russian oil. At least the US can... it's tough but we can survive. Now western Europe (particularly Germany) is completely dependant on Russian oil and natural gas.

Russian oil imports to the US is pretty insignificant.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIM_NUS-NRS_1&f=M
No idea why this is getting so much drama on social media. It's not a huge amount.

 

[Karin1984]

We can start by not importing Russian oil. At least the US can...

Or share the intelligence the US has. According to Reuters, the US has detailed knowledge of the battlefield and knew the invasion was going to happen. Due to their involvement in Ukraine the last few years they know a lot about what is going on. The information can help at least to minimize the damage.

The US is not sharing because not wanting to get involved and giving Putin a reason to really start ww3 (which is actually already happening).

Let's stick to: war is complicated.

I tried to find the English version of the Reuters article but no luck yet.