Just how accurate are the Touring Plans crowd predictors these days?

[spunmickey]

There seems to be such disparity between is it packed, RMH and Touring Plans. Who has the most accurate numbers when planning?

 

[spunmickey]

Anyone?

 

[ChloroformSdxn]

I don't know if any of them is more accurate than the others. One thing I do find helpful is the actual Disney website, specifically, the blackout dates. Those are generally the busiest, AND the weekend after a blackout date because the APs come back in after a hiatus. Otherwise, you can apply a couple general rules of thumb and get a good idea - weekends busier than weekdays, holiday weekends busier than that, etc. There are some special events to take into consideration, such as large conventions, but generally, I don't find any of the crowd calculators to be full of knowledge.

 

[SMD]

Since the crowd numbers are based on past years, how could they predict changes since the start of the 60th? Disney changed the rules on tickets and APs, the effects of which won't be known for at least another year, probably longer. And Disney has been adding events on short notice, which no crowd calendar can predict.

 

[lindyv321]

We used the crowd calendars for our trips in 2013 and 2015 and found them accurate then but now I really like looking at the Disney app to what wait times look like. We are going again at the end of September, Sunday-Tuesday which is supposed to be a slower time. I guess we'll see....

 

[HappyGrape]

not very. try easwdw.

 

[jpwest]

They seem to be having some real problems. Just paged through the last 10 days or so on the Crowd Calendar and across the board it's "What we expected - 9 out of 10. What we saw - 4 out of 10." And once again I will reiterate my biggest complaint with TP - that when you look at the historical crowd listings, they continue to show what they predicted instead of what actually happened. As a long-time subscriber and supporter, I am becoming increasingly dissatisfied with their forecasting accuracy and inexplicable refusal to use real data in their historical view.

 

[figment_jii]

As others have said, I don't think any of the crowd calendars are going to be particularly better than any of the others. They rely on historical data and any major changes will impact those predictions. I would just look at a lot of crowd calendars and get a general sense of what they're predicting on average and go with that.

not very. try easwdw.

I don't think easywdw has crowd calendars for DLR.

 

[HappyGrape]

sorry my error! Should be reading where the tread is posted. And following as planning first trip to California next year!

 

[figment_jii]

sorry my error! Should be reading where the tread is posted. And following as planning first trip to California next year!

No worries!

Alas, DLR doesn't have anything quite like easyWDW in terms of crowd calendars. The best one can do is compare multiple calendars, look at the AP Blockout calendars, see single day ticket pricing (value, regular, and peak), keep an eye on school breaks, and see if any big events are happening in or near the parks to try and guess what the crowds will be like.

 

[jpwest]

sorry my error! Should be reading where the tread is posted. And following as planning first trip to California next year!

I made the same mistake. Sorry, all.