Jobs report revision with up to a million jobs that were in reports are actually gone

[LuvOrlando]

the 'tax collections' data likely reflects it but their data probably is not used to calculate whatever report is created. it's not unusual (actualy common practice) for data sources to be picked and chosen from in an effort to slant something to a more positive or negative light. this activily happened when i was civil service. 'the powers that be' wanted accolades over a program they had promoted so they just had us provide data that would support that. a prime example would be when massive changes in public assistance to supposedly facilitate client employment was a key element in a major election. the powers that be wanted to show what a success it was so there was data gathered to show how many people had dropped from a certain program. looked to all like it had been a huge success. nope, many of our programs had just been renamed so many if not most had were in the newly renamed programs and those program participation numbers were not part of the report to the public. the billions of dollars saved from the original program was reported to the public but the higher dollar amounts from the renamed programs were not. we saw the same with our counterparts at unemployment. they would be horrificly overwhelmed with clients while the labor reports were being trotted out exhaulting how the number of jobless claims had decreased. the number had decreased b/c the reports only pulled the data on how many people were activly receiving unemployment-not how many were still unemployed and had exhausted their claims.

So essentially these organizations are permitted to keep another set of books and behave in ways they shield both assets and liabilities. I'm pretty sure no-one is supposed to be able to do that

 

[LuvOrlando]

This is an election year. Of course there is going to be false reporting by who ever is in power so they can stay in power----BOTH parties do it.

And this means what exactly?

 

[china mom]

So essentially these organizations are permitted to keep another set of books and behave in ways they shield both assets and liabilities. I'm pretty sure no-one is supposed to be able to do that

One of the ways hey collect data is by collecting new applications for unemployment. another is to look ar all applications, current and those sill colleting and another way s to survey and ask "are you currently looking for work?"

None is necessarily an improper way to collect the data but they will give you different results.

New applications, of course, will reflect current job losses. People actually on the unemployment rolls collecting benefits will capture people who have not found work but are still on benefits but will miss the people who's benefits have run out but are still looking for work.

The survey method will only capture people who are actively seeking employment (whether on benefits or not) but will miss all of the people who suffered job loss and decided not to seek employment for various reasons. For example, they get laid off and decide that this would be a good opportunity to try to sart their own business, or become a homemaker. If I got laid off or fired today, I would not seek employment because I am already collecting a pension and was going to stop working in a couple f years anyway.

It can seem wrong to pick and choose which data collection you use to report numbers but technically, there is nothing wrong with the data even though they show different results.

 

[GAN]

And this means what exactly?

It means that politicians or business leaders will choose statistics that favor them. Statistics don't lie, but they can be misleading ...so you're being honest but possibly not totally forthcoming. The bottom-line is this ....unemployment is still at a very low level and if you were to analyze a pile of different statistics it would bear that fact out. Whether it's 2.5% or 4% we would understand that it's a low level. Low unemployment right now isn't necessarily a good thing for democrats -aren't we all hoping for a cut in interest rates? If unemployment stays low, it's just another signal to the Fed that the economy may be too strong and not worthy of a rate cut.

 

[LuvOrlando]

It means that politicians or business leaders will choose statistics that favor them. Statistics don't lie, but they can be misleading ...so you're being honest but possibly not totally forthcoming. The bottom-line is this ....unemployment is still at a very low level and if you were to analyze a pile of different statistics it would bear that fact out. Whether it's 2.5% or 4% we would understand that it's a low level. Low unemployment right now isn't necessarily a good thing for democrats -aren't we all hoping for a cut in interest rates? If unemployment stays low, it's just another signal to the Fed that the economy may be too strong and not worthy of a rate cut.

See this is the weird this, since when is a strong economy bad? The things they say lately are simply the dumbest thoughts ever.

As long as money made evens out with what is offered we are fine, it doesn't matter how big or strong it is the thing is it needs to be balanced and a free market will do just that and quickly because you can't have loose dollars flying around and noone wanting to gobble them up. If interest rates drop housing will boom and they will take a whole lot out money of circulation creating tons of jobs all over the place. The housing mess driving up rent only helps those holding the rent BUT it will hurt anyone who has to pay on debt for the buildings so it only benefits those wealthy enough to own free and clear and rent - what is it that say, follow the money for the culprits...

The way things are hurts those living on a shoestring most because the jobs as laborers and in retail are the ones that support things like housing development, and then the jobs in restaurants support new residents, it is a shame.

 

[GAN]

See this is the weird this, since when is a strong economy bad? The things they say lately are simply the dumbest thoughts ever.

As long as money made evens out with what is offered we are fine. If interest rates drop housing will boom and they will take a whole lot out money of circulation creating tons of jobs all over the place. The housing mess driving up rent only helps those holding the rent BUT it will hurt anyone who has to pay on debt for the buildings so it only benefits those wealthy enough to own free and clear and rent - what is it that say, follow the money for the culprits...

When an economy is too strong it creates inflation -that's what we've been dealing with the last 5-years. Now, that doesn't mean you can see a strong economy(depends on what you do for work) -but you have definitely seen it in your prices of things going up! So, just because many people are struggling these days doesn't mean everyone is ....you know the saying, "the rich get richer" less money for you and me! Billionaires are out spending money which makes construction, manufacturing, etc so busy they can't keep up.

 

[kymom99]

But where is that?

There are still states where minimum wage is 7.25 an hour, (technically lower but they have to pay the federal minimum wage)

That said - I've seen situations where people would be better off with a very basic minimum wage job then getting a dollar more an hour with certifications and responsibility ..etc..

Kentucky. I’m not talking about a minimum wage job. $18 is shameful for someone working a state job that includes law enforcement.

 

[TwoMisfits]

When an economy is too strong it creates inflation -that's what we've been dealing with the last 5-years. Now, that doesn't mean you can see a strong economy(depends on what you do for work) -but you have definitely seen it in your prices of things going up! So, just because many people are struggling these days doesn't mean everyone is ....you know the saying, "the rich get richer" less money for you and me! Billionaires are out spending money which makes construction, manufacturing, etc so busy they can't keep up.

An economy does not have to be strong to have inflation. Too many dollars in circulation chasing too few products/services will also do the same.

As an example...if I, the treasury, just declared that everyone who turns in a $1 bill gets a $10 bill, I've guaranteed a ton of inflation without actually doing a thing for the economy (except probably worsen it b/c repricing all goods, services, assets, debts, and wages to make up for this event will not happen instantly).

Edit to Add: This is a very simplified example of demand-pull inflation, which is likely where we are (money supply, b/c of enormous government deficits, increasing faster than our economy can grow).

 

[Smugpugmug]

I saw some job postings for our state parks, but the pay is so poor, I don’t know how anyone would be able to survive on it. The most recent one I looked at required peace officer certification, which my son does not have. All for $18 an hour. People talk about McDonald’s jobs and how those kinds of jobs are for high school kids. Well, a park ranger with law enforcement training should be able to live on his salary, don’t you think?

So available jobs doesn’t necessarily mean jobs that earn enough to live on.

I've seen job postings for daycare professionals that require certifications/degrees in early childhood development that pay minimum wage. That is straight up embarrassing, especially since you can get paid more working at a fast food restaurant but I know in my heart those employers are not embarrassed lol

 

[kymom99]

I've seen job postings for daycare professionals that require certifications/degrees in early childhood development that pay minimum wage. That is straight up embarrassing, especially since you can get paid more working at a fast food restaurant but I know in my heart those employers are not embarrassed lol

It sure is. We should be willing to invest more into our children.

 

[BayTower2010]

Of course, there is the flip side. I remember a co-worker in about 1987 who was about to retire who put his life savings in a five year CD at about 16% five years earlier. Best rate he could get renewing them was 8%.

Yep, that was my father. When the asset matured, he had already passed away but the return on the initial investment really set my mom up in her later years. For those who lived thru this, the Prime Rate peaked at 22%- not a typo.

 

[GAN]

An economy does not have to be strong to have inflation. Too many dollars in circulation chasing too few products/services will also do the same.

As an example...if I, the treasury, just declared that everyone who turns in a $1 bill gets a $10 bill, I've guaranteed a ton of inflation without actually doing a thing for the economy (except probably worsen it b/c repricing all goods, services, assets, debts, and wages to make up for this event will not happen instantly).

Edit to Add: This is a very simplified example of demand-pull inflation, which is likely where we are (money supply, b/c of enormous government deficits, increasing faster than our economy can grow).

True ..but that's not what's happening in this economy. But the issues started exactly as you indicated(bold) ...and still persist today but to a lesser degree.

 

[tony67]

Kentucky. I’m not talking about a minimum wage job. $18 is shameful for someone working a state job that includes law enforcement.

I don't disagree - and if no one takes the job they will have to pay more if they want to fill it.

My point was 18 is "not bad" in a state where minimum is 7.25.
For something that required law Enforcement its pretty ridiculous - I agree - and probably not worth it unless its your life calling and you are using it to get experience.

 

[barkley]

So essentially these organizations are permitted to keep another set of books and behave in ways they shield both assets and liabilities. I'm pretty sure no-one is supposed to be able to do that

no, still one set of books but renamed or segregated programs. as an example-

AFDC was renamed TANF so in the unit i had if the data was only pulled for how many people were no longer receiving AFDC it would have shown about 3000 households. noone asked for data on how many had been moved from the one program to the other (the same 3000).

a big thing back then was to pull data on how many of our clients became employed and how much of a savings there was in the (then) new TANF programs. noone ever asked for the data on how much in supportive services we were providing under brand new programs (often 3-4x what they previously received).

Yep, that was my father. When the asset matured, he had already passed away but the return on the initial investment really set my mom up in her later years. For those who lived thru this, the Prime Rate peaked at 22%- not a typo.

this was my mom and dad. mom could have paid off her home years early but she refused to b/c she was getting so much more on her cd's than she was paying in interest on the old mortgage (and she could write it off on her taxes). dad passed in 1990 and mom in 2011 and she supplemented her pension and social security for years and years off the earnings those cds made back in the day.

 

[kymom99]

I don't disagree - and if no one takes the job they will have to pay more if they want to fill it.

My point was 18 is "not bad" in a state where minimum is 7.25.
For something that required law Enforcement its pretty ridiculous - I agree - and probably not worth it unless its your life calling and you are using it to get experience.

Exactly. And yes, our minimum wage is a joke.

 

[LuvOrlando]

When an economy is too strong it creates inflation -that's what we've been dealing with the last 5-years. Now, that doesn't mean you can see a strong economy(depends on what you do for work) -but you have definitely seen it in your prices of things going up! So, just because many people are struggling these days doesn't mean everyone is ....you know the saying, "the rich get richer" less money for you and me! Billionaires are out spending money which makes construction, manufacturing, etc so busy they can't keep up.

No that is not true, a strong economy is a balanced economy regardless of the money in the system. Inflation only happens when it is lopsided and inflation is actually a correction for too much made and not enough to spend it on so more stuff to spend it on SHOULD happen which stops the inflation (why getting housing going is a good thing), actually so is a deflation, so like prices drop on say corn when there is too much in the system but then corrections are made for the next crop cycle because no-one likes to lose money. When the input and output are in balance it just moves smoothly but that is sort of rare it is more small jerks in motion, like a new driver.

The ONLY way a strong US economy is a bother would be to other countries whose currency might be devalued, but that is not a US concern or it should not be. The US should be concerned with it's own well being and other countries with theirs so each gets stronger on its own by acting in their self interests. Of course, where there are alliances or mutually beneficial endeavors there will be give and take introduced that benefit all parties concerned and strengthen bonds.

 

[GAN]

No that is not true, a strong economy is a balanced economy regardless of the money in the system. Inflation only happens when it is lopsided and inflation is actually a correction for too much made and not enough to spend it on so more stuff to spend it on SHOULD happen which stops the inflation (why getting housing going is a good thing), actually so is a deflation, so like prices drop on say corn when there is too much in the system but then corrections are made for the next crop cycle because no-one likes to lose money. When the input and output are in balance it just moves smoothly but that is sort of rare it is more small jerks in motion, like a new driver.

The ONLY way a strong US economy is a bother would be to other countries whose currency might be devalued, but that is not a US concern or it should not be. The US should be concerned with it's own well being and other countries with theirs so each gets stronger on its own by acting in their self interests. Of course, where there are alliances or mutually beneficial endeavors there will be give and take introduced that benefit all parties concerned and strengthen bonds.

I'm just going to disagree. When money is added to our economy in the form of tax cuts or the "printing" of money, you can create inflation -supply simply can't keep up with demand. It sounds like you're trying to make a point that our economy, the strongest in the world today, isn't "strong" because it isn't balanced. I'm not going to change your mind, but some information that might explain why I believe it's "strong" is below.....

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/state-of-the-economy

 

[LuvOrlando]

I'm just going to disagree. When money is added to our economy in the form of tax cuts or the "printing" of money, you can create inflation -supply simply can't keep up with demand. It sounds like you're trying to make a point that our economy, the strongest in the world today, isn't "strong" because it isn't balanced. I'm not going to change your mind, but some information that might explain why I believe it's "strong" is below.....

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/state-of-the-economy

Increasing money supply is not the same as a strong economy. Money supply infusions or depletions can be an incredibly useful tool as long as it is in bursts and part of a controlled meaningful policy. An economy will get into trouble if it is sustained in any way because it just becomes baked in and therefore, useless as a steering mechanism.