Jobs report revision with up to a million jobs that were in reports are actually gone

[HokieRaven5]

As of this morning futures for the DOW, Nasdaq, S&P are up.

Target continued the trend of good news from retailers showing stronger than expected earnings.

Don’t think this jobs revision has any noticeable impact.

 

[cvjw]

Show me exactly what national data you've collected and your collection method as well as your statistical analysis that contradicts the official numbers that you know better what's going on nationally. Otherwise, uh you really can't make such a claim.

LOL. We will just have to agree to disagree on the state of the economy.

 

[GAN]

As of this morning futures for the DOW, Nasdaq, S&P are up.

Target continued the trend of good news from retailers showing stronger than expected earnings.

Don’t think this jobs revision has any noticeable impact.

I agree -everything is still strong, people are still SPENDING money. Which is why the FED has held back so long in dropping rates. In my business we've been expecting weaker results for the last 2-years, but we continue to grow -it's crazy ...and we're ahead of last year for the 7th year in a row. Inflation has made things appear worse than they are ..the fact that we've managed to get back to "normal" rates of inflation without a crash is sort of a miracle.

 

[LuvOrlando]

Everyone's situation is different but over the long-term, staying in the market is the winning strategy ...and I've "played" beat the market game and lost more than I've won. So, even now that I'm withing 5-years of retirement I'm staying in the market. Over the last year I've switched over to dividend stocks and ETF's with the plan to live off those payments and social security once retired ...leaving the investments alone(for my kids).

See that is such an unusual perspective to me.

People hear a hit and believe the industry who present like it is not a real loss, meanwhile someone is over on the other side, the short side of things, taking a bath in your lost money. It is real, totally real and a lot of someone elses are getting very rich messing with things. I imagine nation states that can move so much around it lulls people then they pull the rug out and things just reassemble like nothing happened.

 

[GAN]

See that is such an unusual perspective to me.

People hear a hit and believe the industry who present like it is not a real loss, meanwhile someone is over on the other side, the short side of things, taking a bath in your lost money. It is real, totally real.

What lost money are we talking about? Ultimately, jobs numbers can result in unpredictable market results because other factors, they're made up of 4 primary components. This is one of the best explanations out there....

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/why-jobs-report-matters-to-investors

 

[LuvOrlando]

What lost money are we talking about? Ultimately, jobs numbers can result in unpredictable market results because other factors, they're made up of 4 primary components. This is one of the best explanations out there....

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/why-jobs-report-matters-to-investors

You veered off and were talking about the stock market performance in particular.

I am talking about the stock market in particular, and specifically losses in a 401K that is tied to the stock market.

 

[GAN]

You veered off and were talking about the stock market performance in particular.

I am talking about the stock market in particular, and specifically losses in a 401K that is tied to the stock market.

I've made more money the last two years in my 401k/IRA than ever before. That's why I'm confused about "lost money" ...unless you mean in the event that it goes down because of the jobs numbers. There's just as much chance of it going down like it did two weeks ago because people wanted a money grab ...those stocks have already bounced back higher than they were previously. As a basic example, my father NEVER touched the money in his 401k... he let it ride in the market through all the ups and downs and I thought he was crazy. At 93 the guy can't spend his money. As they say, "It's time in the market, NOT timing the market."

 

[georgina]

Agree, we've had money in stocks for 40 years and are way ahead. I had been thinking of backing off a bit in the runup to the election, but the last month situation has made me reconsider.

 

[brockash]

This is nothing new, it's been going on for years. Lots of ghost job postings. Talk to those who are actually trying to pursue employment, and they will tell you that they're applying for various jobs and not hearing anything. I know plenty of teens who were applying for jobs this summer and were getting ghosted. These are teens with good grades, proficient in communication, and were looking for entry level jobs as baggers at grocery stores, in food service, and retail. No bites after dozens of applications submitted, yet all of those places have had help wanted postings for months. Online and in store.

It's happening in the professional realm too as a way to show how desirable your company is.

Yes, my teens. were/are in that boat. It's crazy. Signs and job openings open online EVERYWHERE, yet when you actually call or go in they aren't hiring. - And again, these are good, put together look very nice older teens. Very frustrating.

 

[neverlandsky]

Gonna be brutal, I just moved as much as I am comfy with from my accounts over to CDs with 4.65% to buffer whatever fresh hell is gonna happen to what is stuck in the 401K. Such a mess and it keeps happening, its almost like some people get rich from it...

People need to see The Big Short

and Dumb Money

 

[neverlandsky]

Job losses are not going to be too noticeable due to multigenerational households and/or people piecing together 2 part-time jobs for 1 full-time job.

 

[MillauFr]

LOL. We will just have to agree to disagree on the state of the economy.

With this economy both arguments can be correct. Are some groups and areas getting hammered and suffering big time. Absolutely. Are other areas still booming and people spending money hand over fist? Yes again. It really depends on who you are talking about.

People in my office who also love Disney complain about the Genie + and big crowds. I respond aren't you just shelling out for the VIP tours every time you go there? They say yes, and I say so you aren't dealing with Genie +.

 

[LuvOrlando]

Job losses are not going to be too noticeable due to multigenerational households and/or people piecing together 2 part-time jobs for 1 full-time job.

I think you are right and this is hiding quite a bit. During quarantine lots of families doubled and tripled the generations up and young adults got used to room-mates far past the age it was previously normal and living with more people than is customary. I don't personally know any Gen X who does not have at least one adult child living with them, most have more than one as they can't afford life such as it is now and as my age group deals with aging parents our adult kids help out with pets, chores and all. I wonder what the actual stats are on all this.

 

[BayTower2010]

This is an election year. Of course there is going to be false reporting by who ever is in power so they can stay in power----BOTH parties do it.

 

[BayTower2010]

Those of us who had 12.25% mortgages would argue that interest rates aren't high. I can't argue if they are where they are due to artificial means. I think people like my daughter, who bought a house five years ago and got a 4% mortgage and refinanced to 2.2% think those potentially artificially low mortgage rates are the norm. The current 7%ish rates are right in the middle of the extremes and I would argue are normal. Now housing prices, they are higher than they should be. Rents too. But in my retirement, I am benefiting from that.

Retired as a mortgage underwriter 3/1/24 and saw many ups and downs in my 40 plus years. I would say the sweet spot is 5%. Interest rates at 5% or less and the market gets very hot. With interest rates having been up for over a year, when they do drop -and they will drop -- the refinance business will explode as all those mortgages with interest rates over 5.5% will look to lower their monthly mortgage payments.

 

[tvguy]

Retired as a mortgage underwriter 3/1/24 and saw many ups and downs in my 40 plus years. I would say the sweet spot is 5%. Interest rates at 5% or less and the market gets very hot. With interest rates having been up for over a year, when they do drop -and they will drop -- the refinance business will explode as all those mortgages with interest rates over 5.5% will look to lower their monthly mortgage payments.

Of course, there is the flip side. I remember a co-worker in about 1987 who was about to retire who put his life savings in a five year CD at about 16% five years earlier. Best rate he could get renewing them was 8%.

 

[kymom99]

Here is another job angle many might not be aware of. My son works for the NPS in a seasonal position. He has applied to dozens of jobs in the past couple years and he mostly gets an email saying you are qualified, we will let you know if you advance in the process. Then he will get an email saying we hired a veteran. Veterans get priority, and I don’t have a problem with that. But i also hear of a lot of retired folks who take seasonal jobs in the NPS. They are certainly allowed to do that, but this lowers the number of jobs available to those trying to break into the job market. It’s not really possible to get a permanent position until you spend some time as a seasonal worker.

I’m willing to bet the NPS isn’t the only organization or job source where this happens.

I saw some job postings for our state parks, but the pay is so poor, I don’t know how anyone would be able to survive on it. The most recent one I looked at required peace officer certification, which my son does not have. All for $18 an hour. People talk about McDonald’s jobs and how those kinds of jobs are for high school kids. Well, a park ranger with law enforcement training should be able to live on his salary, don’t you think?

So available jobs doesn’t necessarily mean jobs that earn enough to live on.

 

[barkley]

So do the people that run things actually live in another world because in the real one people can't get jobs and another recent article shared that businesses that offer employment are faking it to look healthy to investors and such. I just can't wrap my head around any of the things that happen because a bunch of people do this as a job right? Wouldnt the tax collections notice so many people reporting a lost job?

the 'tax collections' data likely reflects it but their data probably is not used to calculate whatever report is created. it's not unusual (actualy common practice) for data sources to be picked and chosen from in an effort to slant something to a more positive or negative light. this activily happened when i was civil service. 'the powers that be' wanted accolades over a program they had promoted so they just had us provide data that would support that. a prime example would be when massive changes in public assistance to supposedly facilitate client employment was a key element in a major election. the powers that be wanted to show what a success it was so there was data gathered to show how many people had dropped from a certain program. looked to all like it had been a huge success. nope, many of our programs had just been renamed so many if not most had were in the newly renamed programs and those program participation numbers were not part of the report to the public. the billions of dollars saved from the original program was reported to the public but the higher dollar amounts from the renamed programs were not. we saw the same with our counterparts at unemployment. they would be horrificly overwhelmed with clients while the labor reports were being trotted out exhaulting how the number of jobless claims had decreased. the number had decreased b/c the reports only pulled the data on how many people were activly receiving unemployment-not how many were still unemployed and had exhausted their claims.

 

[tony67]

This is an election year. Of course there is going to be false reporting by who ever is in power so they can stay in power----BOTH parties do it.

Very true - but its not been this off in 15 years.

I wonder how much of this has to do with people who have given up so they are not counted in the weekly unemployment numbers.

Best rate he could get renewing them was 8%.

Id be very happy with 8.

 

[tony67]

. All for $18 an hour.

But where is that?

There are still states where minimum wage is 7.25 an hour, (technically lower but they have to pay the federal minimum wage)

That said - I've seen situations where people would be better off with a very basic minimum wage job then getting a dollar more an hour with certifications and responsibility ..etc..