IVAN Part Deaux

[HumanCookie]

6 PM Bulletin - Sept. 22

WTNT34 KNHC 222246
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

...IVAN REGENERATES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS.

AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
89.3 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN WILL LIKELY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
BEFORE LANDFALL.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 1008
MB...29.77 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE... WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 6 PM CDT POSITION...26.9 N... 89.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

7 PM Discussion

WTNT44 KNHC 222302
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE
IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS
AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2300Z 26.9N 89.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 27.5N 91.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 28.5N 93.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.0N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 95.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 96.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

 

[CM_Mom]

Ya Basta!!! - Enough already!!!

 

[silver7]

Yes, I could not understand why the announcers on the radio today kept saying that the tidal flooding that was occuring near here was due to IVAN, and the rain tomorrow was due to Ivan. I kept thinking that Ivan was in Maine so why were they blaming it on him??

DUH--Ivan left babies, and they are coming to visit

 

[disney queen]

it looks like it is coming right into galveston bay.....the same bay we live on!!

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 230837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 69
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

...IVAN MOVING FASTER OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOUISIANA
WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE... WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 91.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH


5 AM Discussion

WTNT44 KNHC 230835
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 69
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

IVAN REMAINS A POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM...WITH MOST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF THE SHEAR RELAXING...AND
SOME INTENSIFICATION...BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IS CLOSING.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13. IVAN IS BEING STEERED MAINLY BY
A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...WHICH THE GFS MODEL
PREDICTS TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS SOME SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SHARP
LEFTWARD TURN IN 24 TO 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT IVAN WILL NOT BE A DEEP ENOUGH CYCLONE TO
RESPOND SIGNIFICANTLY TO THIS TROUGH. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK IS
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM AND SHALLOW LAYER BAM TRACKS.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 28.2N 91.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 29.2N 93.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 30.1N 95.0W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/1800Z 30.7N 96.1W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 97.0W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 26/0600Z 31.1N 98.0W 20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

[silver7]

It was funny--last night the forecasters kept saying we know it is Ivan, we just don't know if it is remnants from when it was in the Gulf or it looped around. This morning I guess they have agreed it looped around.

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 231141
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 69A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

...IVAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOUISIANA
WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA
MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...28.9 N... 92.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 231443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 70
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

...IVAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COASTS...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT
TEXAS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
LANDFALL OCCURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N... 92.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

11 AM Discussion

WTNT44 KNHC 231442
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 70
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FIRED OFF NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FOUND 70 KT 1500
FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...OR EQUAL TO ABOUT 56 KT SURFACE WINDS...
AND A PRESSURE OF 998 MB. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN THE CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED AND A SUBSEQUENT PASS THROUGH THE CENTER INDICATED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A
BLEND OF A 45 KT SURFACE WIND SUPPORTED BY THE 1000 MB PRESSURE...
AND THE 56 KT SURFACE WIND CONVERSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/13. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND BE INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST.
AFTERWARDS...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE STEERED SLOWLY WEST AND
SOUTHWESTWARD BY A LARGE RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES IN 36-48 HOURS. THIS TRACK
SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL...AND THE MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

WHILE IVAN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROLIFIC WIND PRODUCER...ITS SLOW
FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BRING UP LARGE AMOUNTS
OF GULF MOISTURE THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 29.2N 92.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 30.0N 94.0W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/1200Z 30.5N 95.3W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/0000Z 30.6N 96.3W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1200Z 30.4N 97.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 26/1200Z 29.5N 97.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
96HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 231732
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 70A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

...IVAN WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COASTS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT
TEXAS.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...29.3 N... 92.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1003 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 232038
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 71
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

...IVAN CONTINUES TO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COASTS...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SAN
LUIS PASS TEXAS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 65 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A
MOTION BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN
WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...29.4 N... 93.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

5 PM Discussion

WTNT44 KNHC 232059
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 71
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

AFTER THE EARLIER A BURST OF CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DWINDLED AND THE WIND HAVE DECREASED ACCORDINGLY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS BASED ON THE LAST
RECON REPORT AROUND 17Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. IVAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND BE INLAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST.
AFTERWARDS...RAPID WEAKENING WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DECOUPLING FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE STEERED SLOWLY
WEST AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD BY A LARGE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE TRACK SCENARIO REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SHALLOW BAM MODEL AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. WHILE A FEW MODELS
TAKE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
36-48 HOURS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OF MORE THAN
40 KT SHOULD PREVENT ANY REDEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING.

WHILE IVAN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROLIFIC WIND PRODUCER...ITS SLOW
FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BRING UP LARGE AMOUNTS
OF GULF MOISTURE THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 29.4N 93.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 30.0N 94.1W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/1800Z 30.4N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/0600Z 30.2N 95.7W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1800Z 29.6N 96.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z 28.8N 97.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
96HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 232338
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 71A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

...IVAN ABOUT TO CROSS THE COAST NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SAN
LUIS PASS TEXAS.

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST...JUST SOUTH OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING THE
CENTER OF IVAN INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH. RADAR FROM LAKE CHARLES
INDICATES THAT VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF
THE RAINBANDS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IVAN MOVES
INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES MAINLY TO
THE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
OCCURING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER IS MAKING
LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...29.7 N... 93.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA