It's time to panic

[DisFlan]

I actually hope that this crisis will help lower the crowds and attendance at WDW. I realize that a downturn in attendance can have negative effects on our Disney experience as well, but as DVC owners, our room is paid for so our vacation can be more affordable than a non-DVC vacationer. It does not look like things will change anytime soon so it would be nice to go in June and July with one-fourth less people (or even more) at the parks.

I've never looked at the crowds this way. I see more visitors as meaning more ride updates, more refurbs, new venues. I see an extended period of lower crowds as fewer of the above - and more people unemployed. Unfortunately, I think we'll be seeing lower crowds over the next year or two.

DisFlan

 

[CraftyMouse]

I actually hope that this crisis will help lower the crowds and attendance at WDW. I realize that a downturn in attendance can have negative effects on our Disney experience as well, but as DVC owners, our room is paid for so our vacation can be more affordable than a non-DVC vacationer. It does not look like things will change anytime soon so it would be nice to go in June and July with one-fourth less people (or even more) at the parks.

The problem with decreased park crowds/attendance is that, while it will be nice for those of us who don't want to wait in line as long, it will negatively affect the Walt Disney company, which isn't good in the long run.

I do think that we will see a decrease in crowds/attendance, particularly if the economy doesn't pick up in 2009. If things do stay bad, however, expect to see more limited hours for certain attractions/areas of the park, CMs being laid off, services being cut/limited and plans for new attractions put on the shelf for a while.

All of this reminds me of the downturn after 9/11. That event severely affected Disney attendance. I remember many CMs saying that their hours had been cut in half and entire buildings at resorts being closed because bookings were so low. It took WDW (and Disney, in general) a while to recover from that and our current situation certainly has the potential to be more long-reaching.

But I'm with those who say take a breath and don't panic. The doom and gloom doesn't get us anywhere. We need to keep a realistic eye on the situation and plan for the rainy days that may, but also may not, come.

 

[TK Brown]

I have the reason behind all the problems and a way to solve them. The last time the stock market was below 10,000 was Oct 29, 2004. And what happened that month. The Boston Red Sox won the World Series. And what just happened? The Red Sox won their Division Series and the stock market plummeted. So how do we fix it? Root AGAINST the Red Sox!!!! Its all their fault!!!!!

Do I have to add that I am a die hard Yankee fan? Even though we are at home watching the playoffs.....

 

[CraftyMouse]

I have the reason behind all the problems and a way to solve them. The last time the stock market was below 10,000 was Oct 29, 2004. And what happened that month. The Boston Red Sox won the World Series. And what just happened? The Red Sox won their Division Series and the stock market plummeted. So how do we fix it? Root AGAINST the Red Sox!!!! Its all their fault!!!!!

Do I have to add that I am a die hard Yankee fan? Even though we are at home watching the playoffs.....

BLASPHEMY!!!!!

It figures that a Yankee fan would find a way to blame the Sox for the poor economy. Then again, at least the Sox are in the play-offs this year. Some teams didn't make it at all. <cough...Yankees...cough>

<Craftymouse = Die-Hard Red Sox fan!>

 

[bavaria]

There will be a gradual but steady decline of DVC sales, and other than foreigners, look for Disney to start losing tourists.

For all the abuse we foreigners take here, I am surprised how frequently we are expected to somehow save WDW now.

I have said for almost a year now that our economies are worse off than America, have been for longer, and will not recover as quickly.

Ask Freyja, the poster from Iceland, how much her currency has plummented this past week. Ask us how much disposable income we have after paying 45% income tax on even the lowest incomes, 19% sales tax, and $10,50/gallon for gas (which hasn't dropped even though crude oil prices plummented since summer peak)

The reality is that 'foreigners' don't have any fewer problems than all of you. The UK is forecast to be the worst off of G8 nations, and to fall harder and further and take longer to recover. Canada has a storm brewing even if they fail to see it.

Somehow I suspect that OP is a child of the 1970's or ealy 1980's and hasn't experienced the difficult times that many of us here have in past. This too shall pass, and hopefully we will all come out of it better persons.

 

[Blahnde]

The gloom and doom is not helpful. It adds to the anxiety.

Please continue to follow the advice of "good" economists - manage your debt, look for good investments, and keep your appropriate level of spending. The WORST thing that can happen to the economy right now is if everyone picks up their money and goes home - it will be worse.

If you stop spending money at the local furniture store, the owner has to lay off their workers. If they lay off the worker, they stop going to the clothing store. The clothing store owner lays off their worker, who had planned to go to Disney. Disney sees a decline and lays off their worker. That worker stops going to out to eat, which causes the local restaurant to close. The owner of the local restaurant was about to buy their wife a new living room furniture set. The local furniture store now sees a further decline and closes shop... repeat cycle until you have a serious recession.

And by the way. We are NOT in a depression. We are not even technically in a recession yet by definition. Those who even mention depression are fanning flames and attempting to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Its pathetic, and in my opinion the so-called experts and pundits out there saying this should be investigated and face legal consequences equivalent to yelling "fire" in a crowded theater. Give me facts please. And the facts prove this level of talk is unfounded.

I never thought I would agree so wholeheartedly with someone who liked South Park, but I do! This gets straight to the core of our economic problems.

And I want to add that the media spin over the past month is completely irresponsible. I could not believe me ears the other night when I was watching the NBC Nightly News and they put in a "sound bite" from the Today Show with Ann Curry interviewing Jim Cramer. Completely out of context and totally irresponsibly they quoted Cramer, "If you need your money in the next 1-5 years, get it out of the stock market now!" Has it occured to anyone (anyone with a brain!) that if you need your money in the next 1-5 years that you should never have had it in the stock market in the first place?!? I have no doubt that this very advice is/was given by Cramer, but that is not what made the "sound bite." Only the alarmist "get out, the sky is falling" made the national news. And surprise, surprise the stock market plumetted.

I'm serious as a heart attack when I say that while the economic problems are real, the panic is pure media spin! It is reckless, irresponsible, and I get angry thinking about how I'll have to explain to my grandchildren 50 years from now that pretty, but stupid people on television made a bad situation worse.

Blahnde

 

[DiznEeyore]

Now the rest of the country can feel and experience what we in MI have been feeling for the last say . . . oh . . 5 or so years? It's not fun but we will get through it.

Yes! I said the same thing on another thread the other day. For those of us in Michigan, it's become our everyday life, our new normal. But I can see how other areas not so affected by layoffs and foreclosures in the past are struggling to adjust. We just have to be mindful of our spending (and saving!) right now. Freaking out isn't going to help anything.

 

[ransom]

Ladies and gentlemen, please remain calm, do not panic. We are experiencing some minor turbulence. Oh, and does anyone onboard know how to fly a plane?

That about sums up the situation.

 

[Anjelica]

For all the abuse we foreigners take here, I am surprised how frequently we are expected to somehow save WDW now.

I have said for almost a year now that our economies are worse off than America, have been for longer, and will not recover as quickly.

Ask Freyja, the poster from Iceland, how much her currency has plummented this past week. Ask us how much disposable income we have after paying 45% income tax on even the lowest incomes, 19% sales tax, and $10,50/gallon for gas (which hasn't dropped even though crude oil prices plummented since summer peak)

The reality is that 'foreigners' don't have any fewer problems than all of you. The UK is forecast to be the worst off of G8 nations, and to fall harder and further and take longer to recover. Canada has a storm brewing even if they fail to see it.

Somehow I suspect that OP is a child of the 1970's or ealy 1980's and hasn't experienced the difficult times that many of us here have in past. This too shall pass, and hopefully we will all come out of it better persons.

100% absolutely correct. While I know we haven't always agreed (say the whole issue of the American transportation model "should" be more like European) this is dead on in my honest opinion. Wasn't it France that had like a 25% unemployment rate a year or so ago? The US "freaks" if we get anywhere close to 6%+.

I do think some of the misconception regarding European economies comparatively against the US economy - the Dollar vs. Euro/Pound - and now we are seeing those ratio's weaken. This "may" help me in my vacation hopes of going back to Europe in 2010 and hopefully help my sister and her husband (who live in Italy now) as they are paid in US dollars.

 

[bavaria]

My theory is that the Euro needs to be around 1,20 (it was at a high of 1,55 in August, now around 1,35); the Canadian dollar around 0,86 (it was at a high of 1,02 in summer, today at 0,89) and crude oil around $90 (it was at a year low of $86 earlier today)

Those are all GOOD things for our interconnected economies, but over on the Canadian board they are of course upset to see their dollar decline. What they may not realize is that the high dollar hurt them - exports cost more, manufactured goods cost more, and Americans aren't coming. Same as in Germany.

Not all the news is doom and gloom; we have to pick through it to understand what is actually positive.

I highly recommend turning off the TV or at least trying out a few different sources of news. I listen to NPR, CBC, BBCWorld, and Bayern3, sometimes all in one day. It really helps to get a global perspective.

 

[Terry S]

Now the rest of the country can feel and experience what we in MI have been feeling for the last say . . . oh . . 5 or so years? It's not fun but we will get through it.

And if our state wasn't getting screwed over enough as it is, we are still paying 3.32 for gas.

I find it ironic that 6% of the bad mortgages can create so much havoc.

I am with you there Cobbler, this has been our life for years now.

 

[Anjelica]

I highly recommend turning off the TV or at least trying out a few different sources of news. I listen to NPR, CBC, BBCWorld, and Bayern3, sometimes all in one day. It really helps to get a global perspective.

What ~ no foxnews in there.......? I've watched my share of BBC and listened to NPR and sometimes I still have to wade through all the negativity. CBC - well I haven't caught that in years as they don't show it in my area.

 

[Budshark]

I never thought I would agree so wholeheartedly with someone who liked South Park, but I do!

Ah ha! I never knew why no one liked me here... now I do!

 

[Anjelica]

Ah ha! I never knew why no one liked me here... now I do!

..."You will respect my authoritie (sp?)"....Sorry folks I have digressed - and I wasn't sure how to spell that as I know he didn't say it as authority.

 

[PutnamDS]

Panic... Panic.... just saying the words to myself. I am thinking there is NEVER a TIME to PANIC. I think of panic as a loss of conscious control of one's thinking processes and succoming to emotional direction. Often causing one to run dangerously and senselessly in any direction. Often being a danger to others around. I am sure panic HAS at times by sheer luck saved the life of someone or some creature, but that it is not a decision, it is instinctual triggering.

I do not think it is time to panic. JMHO.

Excellent advice! I agree with you completely!!!

deb

 

[RLRDA]

And I want to add that the media spin over the past month is completely irresponsible.

I'm serious as a heart attack when I say that while the economic problems are real, the panic is pure media spin! It is reckless, irresponsible, and I get angry thinking about how I'll have to explain to my grandchildren 50 years from now that pretty, but stupid people on television made a bad situation worse.

I can't agree more with this portion of your post. It's the reason why I either turn the news off mid-broadcast or I don't watch it at all. I get my info from the newspaper or online just so I don't have to watch the 'pretty, but stupid people'.

 

[bonybroad]

I was watching CNN today.
Someone (I don't remember who) said...
"This is just money. Remember 9/11? Those were PEOPLE we lost. We pulled together, we got through it. We need to remember that spirit and move forward in this situation."

<paraphrased a bit>

 

[MommaX03]

I agree that it is not the time to panic. I have been turning off the radio, TV mid-broadcast because it is so hard not to get down about it.

As it applies to this situation and many other life experiences, we should not panic, but inhale deeply and say, "This too shall pass."

 

[Mtnman44]

This is a market correction in the housing and credit markets. it is much worse that is should have been due to the GSEs involvment in the sub primie mortgage craze.

It will get better if we don't try to mess it up more by additional market intervention. It's gonna be painful for some but we will get through it if we all don't "panic".

By the way, it is in an election year, so everything is "amplified" in terms of crisis level one way or another. I'll bet you a churro that after Nov, no matter who wins, things will suddenly not seem so bad to the media.

Also, be ware of "experts" in the news, especially financial/economic "experts". If you look at almost EVERY financial headline or story it includes the statement that whatever they are reporting was more/or less than experts predicted or more/less than experts expected. In other words, no matter what happens, their "experts" are always surprised. I think they need new experts.

Also, in the 70's, many "experts" predicted the coming ice age withing 20 years. They gave up on that and now we have "experts" telling us about global warming. However, we are now seeing a cooling trend the last few years with some record lows recently so i guess we'll be back to Global Ice Age soon.

Anyway, beware the "experts" in the media. it's all scripted with an agenda.

 

[wildernessDad]

It seems like every time I go onto cnn.com, there is a big picture of a trader with his head in his hand. This, I am sure, scares the bejesus out of a lot of people.

Some must be looking for an instant fix. Rate cuts happened, did the stock market right itself? I mean, people are looking the next day to see what happened. This mess didn't happen overnight and it won't be fixed overnight, but panicking and making it worse is just plain stupid. We need to just settle down and hang in there.