Is there any reason to believe that in one year prices resale would go up?

[Shelly888]

I am looking to pay cash and will likely have enough saved up in 8 months to a year. I have the means to pay now, but I would rather save up the old fashioned way. I can't think of any reason prices on a resale would go up, but I am not as well versed as some of you. I am thinking 100 point at Saratoga Springs. Thanks so much!

 

[robertdangelo]

I would bet they will go down a bit... after all, another year has passed... not to mention if and when Disney makes an announcement about the Rumored Grand Floridian DVC.

Keep in mind, if you buy now, you potentially would have another year's worth of points to use.

Good luck!

 

[chalee94]

I would bet they will go down a bit...

agreed.

 

[wildernessDad]

Given the current state of our economy, no. But hope springs eternal for an upturn, and if so, prices may rise slightly.

 

[DVCconvert]

my guess would be that resale prices are going lower, to at worse be stable within that timeframe.

 

[JimMIA]

Is there any reason to believe that in one year prices resale would go up?

No.

 

[Shelly888]

That is what I was thinking too...just want to be sure thank you

 

[dmoore22]

It seems that prices have stabilized since the recession began. We purchased our resale in 2001. We are seeing current advertised resale prices the same as what we paid, or a couple of dollars more than what we paid nearly 10 years ago.

 

[sweetdana]

I think CGV might go up. There is already a wait list, meaning ROFR when it works out.

BLT --- same or within 10$ in either direction

All others down.

 

[Dean]

Even if retail prices go up, it's unlikely resale prices will other than maybe a slight bump for BLT. IMO, it's very likely SSR will be $10 a point cheaper in 1-2 years than it is now.

 

[amypetecar]

I'm curious if anyone would agree with this opinion, but....

Strictly looking at the resale prices in the thread from Donald is #1, it almost seems as though you saw a very steady downward trend during 09-10. then, they announced the new restrictions for resale contracts for March '11, prices began to plummet, presumably b/c many felt as though if they were going to sell... do it before the march deadline. Why? B/C many sellers were afraid their DVC value would plummet even more after the March deadline. that, and the fact that disney all but stopped exercising ROFR, thus encouraging buyers to submit very undervalued bids.

the funny thing though is that prices began to rebound after the change in policy in March.
-BWV were consistently in the $45-$50 pp, and now are ranging from $45-$65
- SSR dipped into the $40's before March and now are very consistently selling in the mid-high 50's
-VWL dipped to mid-50's and now seem to be back in the 60's
-BLT while staying consistent in the high 90's low 100's before march, still had some crazy low contracts, one as low as $66, but now seem pretty stable in the high 90's.

My point is that I think the announcement of the policy change in March created a bit of a panic with sellers whom were motivated to sell amongst fears that their DVC would be worth next to nothing following the deadline. Now that we are seeing that there is still a fairly strong demand in the resale market, the prices are inching back up reflecting that demand.

Does anyone agree, or am I just completely off my rocker???

 

[Dean]

I'm curious if anyone would agree with this opinion, but....

Strictly looking at the resale prices in the thread from Donald is #1, it almost seems as though you saw a very steady downward trend during 09-10. then, they announced the new restrictions for resale contracts for March '11, prices began to plummet, presumably b/c many felt as though if they were going to sell... do it before the march deadline. Why? B/C many sellers were afraid their DVC value would plummet even more after the March deadline. that, and the fact that disney all but stopped exercising ROFR, thus encouraging buyers to submit very undervalued bids.

the funny thing though is that prices began to rebound after the change in policy in March.
-BWV were consistently in the $45-$50 pp, and now are ranging from $45-$65
- SSR dipped into the $40's before March and now are very consistently selling in the mid-high 50's
-VWL dipped to mid-50's and now seem to be back in the 60's
-BLT while staying consistent in the high 90's low 100's before march, still had some crazy low contracts, one as low as $66, but now seem pretty stable in the high 90's.

My point is that I think the announcement of the policy change in March created a bit of a panic with sellers whom were motivated to sell amongst fears that their DVC would be worth next to nothing following the deadline. Now that we are seeing that there is still a fairly strong demand in the resale market, the prices are inching back up reflecting that demand.

Does anyone agree, or am I just completely off my rocker???

To a degree. I's suggest though that while the listing prices have rebounded somewhat, the selling prices likely haven't. Plus, many who were inclined to take the lower amount have already sold, depleting the lower priced contracts. What I predict will happen is that prices will stabilize for an after 3/20 reality and this will take a year or 2 more. After that, you'll see a similar track as before with resale cont to slowly decline proportionate to the expiration and inherent demand of the resort. My prediction is that new price level will be between $40 & $50 a point on SSR, BWV, VWL and OKW 2057 contracts. A little above for SSR and BCV and under that for OKW non extended contracts. That level should be right around $30 a point for VB and HH. Of course any extension or other changes in the system could alter that landscape.

 

[KYCruiseCrazy]

As bad as the stock market is right now, I don't see resale going up anytime soon. In fact, I see more people dropping the DVC due to hard economic times. Supply and demand!!

 

[XGrumpy1]

I would say wait. If you will have the money in hand to pay cold hard cash in a year, there is nothing like being able to do that, and walk away, no payments, no interest!

 

[TisBit]

There is always the possibility. IF the economy improves and unemployment rates drop, you will likely see less resales in general if owners are not desperate to sell. If there are less resales, supply and demand will say that the prices will go up.

Now, this is a lot of crystal ball stuff and frankly I don't think that there will be major changes in prices in a year. I think as time goes on, you will see less resales due to economic reasons and go back to resales because someone doesn't want/like their DVC anymore. Most of the people that were over extended and purchased in that 2005-2009 time frame should have dumped their contracts by now. Most purchasers now are not relying so heavily on credit to purchase (home refinancing, etc) and will be less likely to negative reaction to the markets/home values.

 

[JimMIA]

I think as time goes on, you will see less resales due to economic reasons and go back to resales because someone doesn't want/like their DVC anymore.

I think that depends on where you think the economy is going. If you think the economy is going to rebound, you're likely right.

I personally don't think the economy is going to rebound in the foreseeable future. All of the recent economic news has been bad, not only in the US but around the world. We seem to be headed for a "double-dip" recession, and this time around the entire system is much weaker than in was in 2008. It's pretty hard to be optimistic. As the economy trends downward, demand for luxuries like DVC should lessen -- both for direct sales and resales.

Most of the people that were over extended and purchased in that 2005-2009 time frame should have dumped their contracts by now.

That's probably true, and during the latter part of 2010 and early 2011, the resale market was certainly glutted with inventory. A lot of that inventory was sold, so the market is probably more "normal" now.

But if the economy tanks again, many people who were not affected in 2008-2010 will be affected this time.

Most purchasers now are not relying so heavily on credit to purchase (home refinancing, etc) and will be less likely to negative reaction to the markets/home values.

I don't think most resale buyers have ever been reliant on financing. Resale buyers tend to be much more cautious, and more knowledgeable than direct buyers, IMHO.

Disney will continue to sell DVC to folks who couldn't possibly buy without financing and a certain percentage of them will get in financial trouble and have to sell or just walk away.