Is the resale boom over?

[Bjaiken77]

I’m currently talking to my resale rep (I’m selling a contract), and he’s telling me that sales peaked in April. I think we need more time to know that definitively, but I understand his sentiment when I look at the growing number of resale listings. Has the boom ended? The projection line we’ve been on for 2021 can’t last forever.

 

[Rm4OneMore]

Someone more informed than I will provide accurate information but, as you probably expected, in the last 12 months resale prices have gone up. I recommend looking at https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-april-21-report/ for a monthly price comparison. I also recommend reviewing https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...ost-for-instructions-formatting-tool.3831655/, as it contains recent resale purchase prices. We've been thinking about purchasing an Aulani contract but I can't get over the increase in price. It was selling for $90 - $95/point last spring. Now it's north of $125 - $130/point.

 

[Meglen]

Was also looking into resale dring covid the price pp was just inticing. Now with it being back and even higher no way im gonna buy at these prices when I was having a hard time pulling the trigger at 100$ pp

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Prices are still going up so I would say the boom hasn't ended. I'm expecting it to flatten some as the Covid savings dry up.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Prices are still going up so I would say the boom hasn't ended. I'm expecting it to flatten some as the Covid savings dry up.

Right, but I’m seeing a rise in inventory. So that means an increase in competition. That should result in lower prices. I just dropped my price to be more competitive.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I don't know how you can call it a "boom" when so much of the resale value is manipulated by Disney through ROFR. Sure, you can say the costs have increased disproportionately to inflation or other assets or commodities (although DVC is neither), but just try to buy or sell a contract for what both you and the seller feels is a more "reasonable" cost (keeping in mind that the seller likely bought for considerably less per point). Say the seller is ill or has lost interest, and simply wants to sell their contract for what they paid for it, plus enough to cover broker's commission, etc. Just wants out. How likely is it that Disney will allow that to happen?

 

[Bjaiken77]

I don't know how you can call it a "boom" when so much of the resale value is manipulated by Disney through ROFR. Sure, you can say the costs have increased disproportionately to inflation or other assets or commodities (although DVC is neither), but just try to buy or sell a contract for what both you and the seller feels is a more "reasonable" cost (keeping in mind that the seller likely bought for considerably less per point). Say the seller is ill or has lost interest, and simply wants to sell their contract for what they paid for it, plus enough to cover broker's commission, etc. Just wants out. How likely is it that Disney will allow that to happen?

I’m classifying the “boom” as the 2021 cost per point line. It’s been really, really sharp this year. I don’t think a lot of sellers have been bothered by ROFR recently. If Disney grabs it, they are grabbing it at a price most sellers would find favorable when compared to this time 6-12 months ago.

I predict (and these are all just games in educated guessing) prices will level off at where they are now for awhile. They may even decrease a bit.

 

[The Jackal]

Is it over, nope. Look at the resale sites. Many of them only have a few SSR and OKW contracts. By a few I mean 2-4. Not long ago they would have 30-40. Either they are removing them faster when people get an accepted offer or they are selling faster. Some sites have 0 contracts for some resorts.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Is it over, nope. Look at the resale sites. Many of them only have a few SSR and OKW contracts. By a few I mean 2-4. Not long ago they would have 30-40. Either they are removing them faster when people get an accepted offer or they are selling faster. Some sites have 0 contracts for some resorts.

So you think prices are going to continue to rise consistent with first quarter levels?

 

[davidl81]

So you think prices are going to continue to rise consistent with first quarter levels?

Clearly that rate increase is unsustainable over a long term. I like you expect it to level off at some point, maybe in the next few months. But I think there is virtually 0 chance short of a major recession that prices drop back down to where they were in 2020 etc. A new floor has been established IMO.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Clearly that rate increase is unsustainable over a long term. I like you expect it to level off at some point, maybe in the next few months. But I think there is virtually 0 chance short of a major recession that prices drop back down to where they were in 2020 etc. A new floor has been established IMO.

I agree with this 100%

 

[RoseGold]

The prices have varied a lot by resort, and we have no idea what you are selling. VGF has gone nowhere but up.

 

[Bjaiken77]

The prices have varied a lot by resort, and we have no idea what you are selling. VGF has gone nowhere but up.

I’m just going with what Kevin at DVC Resale Market told me. I then went over to see their number of listings for BLT, PVB, and VGF. They are more than I recall recently. So what he’s telling me at least matched up.

 

[RoseGold]

I’m just going with what Kevin at DVC Resale Market told me. I then went over to see their number of listings for BLT, PVB, and VGF. They are more than I recall recently. So what he’s telling me at least matched up.

If you're selling VB I have a very different answer than if you are selling VGF. This is all publicly available math.

 

[Bjaiken77]

If you're selling VB I have a very different answer than if you are selling VGF. This is all publicly available math.

I’m selling PVB. The data is publicly available, but it’s not static. It changes month to month. We don’t have the numbers yet for May. Again, all I can pass along is what he told me. I then took a look at the number of listings to see what I thought. I don’t know definitively where it’s going, but increased inventory should lead to a stabilization in pricing. The reason I asked the question to the group is precisely because I don’t know where it’s going, but his statement was thought provoking. I like and appreciate the varying viewpoints of the boards. I appreciate yours even though it doesn’t necessarily align with mine.

 

[smisale]

There selling at a good pace so i cant see sellers dropping there price. Yes i can see it leveling off but too late for 2020 pricing

 

[Heather07438]

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2020/
Back in mid 2020 resale brokers were pushing Poly, saying it’s a great deal... the best deal at the time. They were absolutely right, over the summer Poly saw as low as $120pp. Quite the bargain.

 

[chalee94]

I don't know how you can call it a "boom" when so much of the resale value is manipulated by Disney through ROFR. Sure, you can say the costs have increased disproportionately to inflation or other assets or commodities (although DVC is neither), but just try to buy or sell a contract for what both you and the seller feels is a more "reasonable" cost (keeping in mind that the seller likely bought for considerably less per point). Say the seller is ill or has lost interest, and simply wants to sell their contract for what they paid for it, plus enough to cover broker's commission, etc. Just wants out. How likely is it that Disney will allow that to happen?

You seem to have forgotten that early in the pandemic (April-June 2020), Disney dropped ROFR completely.

But it seems there was not much crossover between the newly unemployed and DVC owners or potential DVC buyers, as demand stayed strong for DVC and panic selling seemed very rare. The government has been sending EIP money to middle class families, discretionary spending on vacations and eating out tended to drop... I don't have kids but with remote work being more common, it seems like some child care spending was down... But the net result seemed to be that a lot of people interested in DVC had more money available to put into future vacations. That seems to be what is driving the higher demand from my limited perspective.

OTOH, Disney has lost a lot of revenue from cruising shutdowns, shuttered movie theaters and park closings and capacity restrictions. Given limited options, it seems like it quickly dawned on them that using ROFR to bolster direct sales to meet that surprising demand might provide a little extra revenue during the Pandemic and ROFR was reasserted to avoid leaving money on the table.

So I would say you are confused between correlation and causation - ROFR is rolling because prices are high because demand is high, and if demand had actually tanked during the Pandemic (as it did back in the Great Recession), ROFR might still be shut down (as it was for over a year back then).

An unintentional effect of Disney ROFRing contracts around certain prices may drive resale prices up a few dollars in some cases, but (especially now) Disney simply doesn't have the cash available to "manipulate resale values." If demand is high for DVC and people have cash to spend, Disney wants to get their share of that money in direct purchases and take advantage of an inefficient resale market to grab low priced inventory that they are certain that they can resell. OTOH if demand tanks, they will drop out to avoid getting stuck with too much inventory. But it's a fiction that ROFR sets resale prices.

 

[808blessing]

Aulani jumped in Dec 2020. I saw the $90s rise over $100 that month. I secured my offer Dec 1 and watched everyday until closing.

I think those who cut back on spending on their “kid” budget, whether it be lessons, sports, outings, birthday parties, childcare or vacations during the pandemic were able to find some way to surprise and make happy for their family. Perhaps the Disney vacation in the winter to Aulani or a promise to finally go see Disney World was made. The math worked out. DW felt safe and many were scared for most of the year. I think it will flatten only because for the past two weeks, I haven’t looked everyday since December. Other than that, my metrics were mainly how many contracts were available in a small point range. It cut in half around Jan or Feb. Oh and when Boardwalk under 150 points remain listed more than a day, that’s another way I will know the market softened. So how often, how many and how long. That’s how I would check as a broker.
ETA: Just looked at listings, there are a lot more “choice” resorts available now! I think it’s softening....everyone jumping to direct, probably because they want the points quick to use before everything is booked up for 22, not a deal for the future.
But who knows? Resale will always be there. More cash flowing toward the kids and grandkids. More interest in reliable timeshare/hospitality real estate.

 

[DVCanadian]

As prices rise more sellers should appear.
long time holders might be willing to sell at these prices, people with a lot of points might trim their holdings to take advantage. I’d expect to see a lot of original owner OKW points hit the market but I imagine most owners aren’t really aware of the current resale value.

Seems like prices for everything are headed up. If you believe we will be hit by inflation over the next few years, prices will keep going up.

For me the market has changed. People believe that buying SSR direct is a good idea and “the same” as resale. I feel a sense of desperation for people to travel.

I bought in 2011 near the bottom of resale prices after the 2008 recession, picking up points for $50 pp and have been using them, haven’t been tracking resale until I got bored during the pandemic and started pretend planning trips and reading the forums again, I find the market shocking!
I would sell except I still have a lot of trips I want to take!