Is the market softening?

[KAT4DISNEY]

If memory serves me correctly, the resale market didn't come down last year during annual dues season as everyone had said it would. Although, I suspect that was because of

1. The excitement of the announcement and construction for everything new coming in the future, and
2. The direct point increase that took effect 1/17/18.
3. Other factors

I'm really hoping to see a dip this year so I can add on...

My POV was that it did come down and there were more contracts, pretty much same as always for that time of the year. I added on with what I saw and found. It's never been a huge dive because of the end of the year but generally a softening with more contracts sitting around.

 

[Mainstreetdreams]

I've only been watching the market for a couple of months since I'm actively trying to buy. In the short time I've paid attention, it does seem to be softening. When I started watching https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/ listings, the inventory has been climbing. I think it was around 400 and something listings a couple months ago and now it's 600 and change. I don't know if this happens every year around this time.

 

[The Jackal]

I've only been watching the market for a couple of months since I'm actively trying to buy. In the short time I've paid attention, it does seem to be softening. When I started watching https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/ listings, the inventory has been climbing. I think it was around 400 and something listings a couple months ago and now it's 600 and change. I don't know if this happens every year around this time.

Lots of people will sell prior to the bill for the dues in January. It tends to be the busiest time. The 10% increase in dues might push a few more then normal to sell. I can see prices falling some due to this increase.

 

[DenLo]

There is a double whammy on next years annual dues which property tax increased and higher housekeeping costs. Then there is CCV where DVC strangely left everything pretty much the same as last year. DVC didn't even increase the housekeeping for CCV. Maybe they are tired of giving the owners refunds within the final annual dues statement. Sure some members will sell and others will think really hard about it and others will say but it still cheaper than renting through CRO or even a DVC owner where you have to commit and not get a refund if you change your plans.

I would think soon the older DVC resorts will start selling for less each year as there less years on their contracts. But that might cause the newer resorts to sell for higher prices.

 

[BillPA]

with the dues increase coming, many resale contract have lowered the asking price. I expect many more and larger drops soon, as more folks discover the new dues policy. So if you're in the market to buy, wait a bit you should save lots.

 

[Jerry@dvcstore]

This time of year is a bit slower for most resale brokers sales (due to the oncoming holidays). This has been a normal cycle for as long as I've been selling the Disney Vacation Club packages (19 years). Typically the New Year through mid September is when things are at their busiest, and October through December is the slowest for sales. The volume of sellers is about the same with a little bit of a bump b/c of the annual dues bill that is impending...So Oct - Dec is when the brokers inventory will grow. Then comes the New Year...and sales go back into full steam. The prices may adjust up or down depending on unknown variables...Disney's ROFR #'s, the number of Sellers on market / and competition between sellers / Direct Disney price adjustments / DVC News and info they release...etc. Predicting the market can be very difficult.

 

[rg35]

Some may disagree, but I believe we are on the fringes of an economic slowdown. There are numerous factors for this, and some indicators are already pointing that way.

Individually, with DVC ownership costs increasing, flat wages, potential surprise tax bills for some (simulations show that after the tax law changes, the # of Americans who are underwithholding has increased), etc., these things could combine to improve the resale market for buyers as owners look to unload luxury expenses.

 

[MassJester]

I saw 200 points at Boulder Ridge offered at $98--that's as low as I've seen it for in a while. Although it's unlikely that our period of economic growth extends forever, I'd be reticent to predict the "breaking point." Still, there are a host of potential drags on prices: annual fees have been mentioned, but large factors like interest rates and uncertain ones like Brexit (which can cut both ways) may all reasonably play a part. It should be interesting to watch.

 

[Cyberc1978]

I saw 200 points at Boulder Ridge offered at $98--that's as low as I've seen it for in a while. Although it's unlikely that our period of economic growth extends forever, I'd be reticent to predict the "breaking point." Still, there are a host of potential drags on prices: annual fees have been mentioned, but large factors like interest rates and uncertain ones like Brexit (which can cut both ways) may all reasonably play a part. It should be interesting to watch.

Actually if you look in the ROFR thread you will see that $98 is a tad higher(not much) of what the resort normally sells for.

 

[Cyberc1978]

If the past is any guideline for the future then during “this time” of year more contracts are coming on the market and pricing is a tad lower.