Is the market softening?

SherylLC

Mouseketeer
Joined
Jul 29, 2017
Anyone else feeling like prices are coming down? Seeing 50-100 point VGF in the $150s.
 
  • CraigInPA

    Since June 1974
    Joined
    Jun 11, 2012
    Fidelity often has distressed contracts for sale. These contracts are ones where the contract is on the brink of foreclosure, and the owner needs a quick agreement of sale to prevent it. Typically, they are gone about 3.4 microseconds after they are published for sale.

    I grabbed one of these myself. I saved $15 per point, and got a fully loaded contract. I was told there were 4 full price offers that came in after my full price offer.
     

    Cyberc1978

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jul 19, 2016
    I do however believe that prices will go down in the foreseeable future as the economy is not as strong as it has been.
     

    E2ME2

    ET
    Joined
    Oct 17, 2011
    I noticed an interesting posting today on Fidelity.
    It was 120 points at AKV @ $98PP
    I have been seeing others closer to $110-$115.
    It was stripped of points for '18 & '19 though....
    ???
     

    skippytx

    Bay Lake Tower
    Joined
    Aug 24, 2015
    I do however believe that prices will go down in the foreseeable future as the economy is not as strong as it has been.
    I think the economy is about the same. My opinion is there are a couple things that *might* be at play

    - Pent up demand is clearing out. Maybe a lot of buyers were waiting for things to stabilize before splurging on DVC. That demand could be clearing out. (Similar to 08-09 car sales slump, then corresponding increases as people began buying new cars again). There was a big jump in pricing last year and another bump for some resorts due to DVC raising direct pricing so much. 2 years ago no one thought AKV would be going for 115 or SSR for over 100.

    - It's a slower time for DVC sales. Holidays are coming up, things tend to calm down around the holidays and then in my experience pick back up after the new year as people start planning summer vacations. If you need to sell now, you drop your price a few bucks a point.

    - Some of the contracts listed right now aren't that great. Few people want to pay thousands of dollars for stripped contracts without points until 2020. I got an email for a loaded 160 Feb BLT @ 142 and man if I had the extra money laying around I would have bought it. It was snapped up in less than 2 days.
     

    mlittig

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Apr 22, 2009
    Anyone else feeling like prices are coming down? Seeing 50-100 point VGF in the $150s.
    Does anyone know if the Fidelity contracts with their low prices even pass ROFR though :confused3 Some of Fidelity contracts are so tempting but my concern is passing ROFR :scratchin
     

    iheartglaciers

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 1, 2014
    Does anyone know if the Fidelity contracts with their low prices even pass ROFR though :confused3 Some of Fidelity contracts are so tempting but my concern is passing ROFR :scratchin
    Some do, some don't. I had an accepted offer on one that didn't... it would've been a great deal if it had passed!
     

    act1980

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 15, 2010
    I'm looking to buy at Copper Creek but not sure if I should wait. Following this thread with interest.
     

    D-Trick

    Oakland Raiders FTW
    Joined
    Feb 15, 2017
    Some folks also tend to unload their contracts at this time as annual dues are coming up again.
    That's the biggest thing. This is "busy season" as far as DVC resale is concerned.
    If memory serves me correctly, the resale market didn't come down last year during annual dues season as everyone had said it would. Although, I suspect that was because of
    1. The excitement of the announcement and construction for everything new coming in the future, and
    2. The direct point increase that took effect 1/17/18.
    3. Other factors
    I'm really hoping to see a dip this year so I can add on... :P
     

    GlamMistress

    Resident Metalhead
    Joined
    Jul 18, 2017
    With the 2019 dues coming out - and being very high - I'd assume that means more resale contracts will be coming on the market soon. That should lower prices. We'll see.

    Those dues are painful. I've got a small AKL contract in ROFR now. I was going to turn around and immediately buy more points once it passed - not I'm not sure.
     

    stuartsong

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 20, 2001
    I think there will be some softening with the increases in dues. Once some owner who have been on the fence about selling will definitely put their points up for sale. We will see more listings which should soften the market a bit.
     

    kniquy

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Dec 15, 2014
    Will these increased due also drive up the rental market cost? I would imagine that the recent increase in our OTU points and now the MF increase this will drive up the rental cost per point, but i think for many out there going rental is still a significant savings compared to direct Disney prices.
     

    CarolMN

    DVC Co-Moderator
    Moderator
    Joined
    Aug 18, 1999
    Will these increased due also drive up the rental market cost? I would imagine that the recent increase in our OTU points and now the MF increase this will drive up the rental cost per point, but i think for many out there going rental is still a significant savings compared to direct Disney prices.
    Rental price ceiling is capped by Disney's cash prices for hotel rooms. To make up for the lack of housekeeping and less-friendly cancellation policies that go with point rentals, there has to be a significant savings. I

    I don't think the rental ppp has much at all to do with annual dues or even the initial cost. It depends on what renters are willing to pay and that in turn, depends on the savings over just booking directly with Disney.
     

    jtwibih

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Aug 22, 2010
    I thought I read somewhere else that these hikes are expected to be like this for the next few years at least. Is there concern among current owners that Disney won’t go back to the usual increases if we see them do this again next year?
     

    zavandor

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jul 22, 2011
    Labor cost has increased for Disney resorts too, I really doubt that, with all the new developments and expected increased attendance, Disney won't pass that increase to rack rates too. This means a higher saving renting vs rack rates, which can support an increase in price pp.
    And of course higher savings owning vs rack rates.
    We are sort in no mans land, MF increased but rack rates do not yet show SW:GE rates. There may be a short lived modest dip in resale but it'll recover soon.
     

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