is it me, or are there a ton of resales??

[brunoflipper]

have i just never noticed, or are there more resales than in the past??
looking at timeshare store, i counted 97 listings... that seems like a lot more than i've ever seen in the past...

 

[Happy Birthday Cat]

Also look at which DVC resorts they are for sale at (and I should add, where they are not for sale). But when you look at the big picture, 100 resales out of 90,000 members or so isn't a lot at all.

HBC

 

[bicker]

I had to check, and my suspicion was correct: Most of the resales were from HH, OKW, SSR, and VB. Though I'm actually a little surprised as the number fo SSR resales available, I'm not surprised in the slightest about the rest, including the fact that there are comparatively few resales available at VWL and BWV (which just happen to be my two home resorts ).

I had always speculated that many of those owners were counting on the 7 month window working-out for them, and it surely did for many years. I was wondering when VWL and BWV owners (and BCV owners, for that matter) would get wise to reality, and start being more fastidious about booking early. If that's happened, then those relying on 7 month availability must be getting progressively disappointed with their ownership interest.

Interesting, interesting.

 

[Beca]

I had to check, and my suspicion was correct: Most of the resales were from HH, OKW, SSR, and VB. Though I'm actually a little surprised as the number fo SSR resales available, I'm not surprised in the slightest about the rest, including the fact that there are comparatively few resales available at VWL and BWV (which just happen to be my two home resorts ).

I had always speculated that many of those owners were counting on the 7 month window working-out for them, and it surely did for many years. I was wondering when VWL and BWV owners (and BCV owners, for that matter) would get wise to reality, and start being more fastidious about booking early. If that's happened, then those relying on 7 month availability must be getting progressively disappointed with their ownership interest.

Interesting, interesting.

My thoughts exactly!! A few weeks ago, there were nearly 20 BWV for sale, but this weekend they were down to six! There were 3 BCV, and 4 VWL. I also found it strange that there were 11 SSR (but many have said this happens every time a resort opens...people have buyer's remorse). There are a TON of OKW, but all the little ones seems to go very quickly.

If anything, I take that resales are getting harder to come by at some resorts. I think the fact that DVC is ROFR'ing so many BCV, BWV and VWL plays a big part in how few of these are on the market. People are having to try their hand at 2-3 contracts to get in...that makes for a lot fewer on the market.



Beca

 

[JeanJoe]

I had to check, and my suspicion was correct: Most of the resales were from HH, OKW, SSR, and VB.

Although I suspect you are largely correct, the flaw in analyzing it that way is that when we look at what resales are on the list, we are only looking at a snapshot in time. What we see listed are the ones that are not "moving" very quickly; what we don't necessarily see are the ones that showed up and were quickly purchased and removed from the list -- these are mostly BCV and BWV. Also, all the small contracts (<= 100 points) seem to get snatched up within hours.

Since I'm currently trying to join DVC via a resale, I've been monitoring a few of the resale sites. It seems as if whenever a BCV or BWV appears on the resale list, they are fairly quickly converted into "Sale pending..." as an offer is made, and then disappear off the list (which, in the case of TTS, seems to be when they get sent off for ROFR).

On the other hand, the number of "new" listings seems to have quieted down in the past week or so.

(Incidentally, that "bargain" 1,000 point OKW contract at $80/point is still sitting there, and I suspect will sit there for a while longer. When I told my wife about this listing, she said she expected 2 magic words to appear by it. I was mystified. She responded "Just reduced!")

 

[carlos1117]

I think the thing you're missing is that there are many more units at OKW than BWV or especially BCV. You're comparing apples to oranges, not apples to apples. I believe OKW has three times the amount.

 

[DisFlan]

How does DVC count "members"? Is it by each contract, or by the number of people on the contract? That would make a big difference. There are 4 names on ours (me, DH, our son and our DIL).

Are there 90,000 contracts? Or are we talking maybe 30-40,000 actual contracts? And how many of those are multiples owned by the same owners? I'd guesstimate we'd be down to something like 20,000 or less. Even at that number, 97 resales, or even 200 resales, wouldn't seem out of line. 2,000 or 3,000 might worry me. There's always going to be a baseline number of people who want to sell, for whatever reason.

I'd be interested in the actual numbers, if anyone has them. (Doc? Anyone?)

I think we're seeing an increasing number on the TTS listings for a couple of reasons. 1) More people interested in selling are finding the resale site, and 2) a new resort has opened.

JeanJoe - there's an 800 pt. OKW for sale at atimeshare.com for $70 a point. (So your DW is probably right on that 1000 pt. honker.) There are also a couple of other big OKW contracts there for $73 and $74.

DisFlan

 

[johde]

Double Post

 

[johde]

Another reason why OKW has more resales besides the size is because it's the oldest. Many of these people have been members for over 10 years and have seen a decent profit on their investment.

 

[brunoflipper]

my OP was just about the fact that at first blush there appear to be more total resales available now than in the past (the individual resort resale numbers and the accompanying "which" and "why" debate has been ritually flogged on this board for years to the point that it has become one of the many frequently recurring disboards "exercises in exhaustive mental ************" topic)... i wondered if my post might elicit a confirmatory response from a timeshare store employee or if it was satus quo and that my memory had failed me yet again...

 

[gtrist4life]

My thoughts are that while it may appear that there are more resales now, as an overall percentage the number is the same; i.e. more members, more resales.

As Happy Birthday Cat noted, the overall percentage is quite small.

Peace,
G4L

 

[jarestel]

I think it's normal that a percentage of members will grow tired of WDW after a number of visits. Additionally, many people buy more points than they really need when the DVC fire is still burning hotly, but end up selling off the surplus after a few years of not using all of their points. And with a Disney price increase coming in June, this might be a good time to sell if people were on the fence about it.

 

[T.E. Yeary]

Yes, there are more Resales available now than at this same time last year. This is based on a little thing or a big thing, called "attrition". The longer a resort is in existence the more people will be selling. Time produces "change", albeit, death, divorce, sickness, change in vacation style, money problems, etc. I could go on and on with all the reasons people sell but the bottom line spells "opportunity" for those that are able to take advantage of a market that becomes abundant with many choices.

I hope this helps answer your question.

Tom

 

[dianeschlicht]

I'm sure the economy plays a small role in it as well. Some folks are trying to reduce the bottom line, and getting rid of some of the annual expense might be a way of doing this.

 

[Beca]

I think the thing you're missing is that there are many more units at OKW than BWV or especially BCV. You're comparing apples to oranges, not apples to apples. I believe OKW has three times the amount.

That is true, but it cannot make up for the "differences" seen on the boards.

VWL is the smallest property, but there are 4 resales, whereas BCV (at almost twice the size of VWL) has only 1.

OKW is less than twice the size of BWV, yet BWV only has 5 contracts for sale, whereas OKW has 29.

I think BWV and SSR have about the same number of units open right now (as of right now, they are about the same size), but BWV has 5 contracts available, and SSR has 11.

So, even when you make "adjustments"...there are significant differences. And, that is not even taking into account the price differences between the resorts.

I seriously think a lot of what we are seeing is this...DVC is ROFR'ing BWV at a higher price than they were 6 weeks ago. On the ROFR thread I have seen a few BWV contracts getting bought back by DVC at $80 per point. Until recently, only BCV was getting ROFR'd that high. There are a few people on the boards who are on their THIRD attempt at getting a BWV contract...they all keep getting bought back. Well, that is three contracts, or three listings per person. That would snatch up all the BWV contracts pretty quickly.

JMHO,



Beca

 

[spiceycat]

Beca as some pointed out - this is just a slice.

not to long ago - there were several BWV contracts and very few (almost) none OKW

You can't predict what is going to be on sale tomorrow.

but I have to agreed $80 a point for a 1,000 point contract is funny - I wonder if this is the same contract that was for sales serveral years ago - then it got to $50 a point before it was removed....

if at BWV and BCV this one would have a problem selling - not too many people want to invest that kind of money into a timeshares.

the contracts are just that the contracts. However there are several people on this board that own more than one contract. So in some areas DVC is overcounting - but I don't think by much.

it doesn't count family members - only the contracts. (it doesn't count add on either)

 

[JeanJoe]

Regarding the "this only being a slice of time" issue, I can detail the number of NEW contracts since April 26 through May 9, as I have been following the resale sites with, shall we say, excessive scrutiny.

NEW CONTRACTS SINCE APR 26 (at our favorite reseller, TTS)
====================
(3) BCV
(11) BWV
(2) HH
(15) OKW
(8) SSR
(6) VB
(1) WL

- this doesn't include contracts that have been stagnating since March, for example
- it does (for the most part) include contracts that showed up after April 26, but subsequently have been removed (for example, after going through "sale pending" status)
- the list also obviously does not include any contracts that never made it to the web site (for example, when TTS has a customer with a specific interest, and gets the phone call that that contract is now available).

This data is still limited by it being a short-term peek (just since Apr 26), but is better than looking at what is available on the web site at this moment.

I need to get a life...

Source contracts: BC270-12-0506, BC300-02-0428, BC300-04-0509, BW100-08-0505, BW100-09-0426, BW100-09-0426-1, BW150-06-0504, BW150-06-0504-1, BW150-12-0509, BW222-08-0502, BW230-09-0503, BW240-09-0426, BW270-02-0429, BW300-10-0509, HH100-06-0502, HH200-02-0502, OKW1000-06-0426, OKW150-06-0503, OKW150-12-0502, OKW210-03-0507, OKW210-03-0507, OKW230-02-0503, OKW230-02-0503, OKW250-08-0505, OKW250-10-0503, OKW270-04-0506, OKW300-02-0509, OKW300-06-0429, OKW420-02-0509, OKW50-02-0505, OKW50-02-0505-1, SS100-12-0426, SS150-02-0506, SS200-12-0426, SS200-12-0426, SS240-02-0430, SS300-02-0428, SS300-02-0428-1, SS300-02-0428-1, VB100-02-0502, VB150-12-0509, VB200-02-0502, VB250-02-0505, VB50-06-0427, VB50-06-0506, WL150-12-0509

 

[OneMoreTry]

Regarding difference in number of resales at various resorts.

All things being equal, one would expect the relative number of resales to depend, among other things, on
total number of contracts owned at a resort,
length of ownership and even
the sales tactics used to snare buyers. Ie. if buyers are convinced to sign before careful consideration of the price to be paid they would be more likely to sell after a short time. (Could this be a factor for some of the SSR resales?)

I'm sure there are other factors but I doubt that OKW and HH owners are jumping ship and leaving DVC JUST BECAUSE they own at these resorts and not at the "golden" resorts. I don't think they're saying, "Oh I wish I had bought at BCV. Darn it. Therefore, I don't want DVC any more so I'm selling!"

Likewise, I don't think a significant proportion of those selling OKW and HH are turning around and buying at the "golden" resorts. Do you?

My point is that conclusions about resort popularity or superiority based on this specific resale information are unfounded.

 

[TammyAlphabet]

I see this thread going the way of many others. It is turning into a discussion of which is the best resort based, on this occasion, who is selling what and how many contracts are there. Everybody knows that the best resort is BWV!

 

[DisFlan]

Well, shoot, if there are really 90,000+ contracts (which seems a tad high to me), then what we're seeing listed for sale on several boards is just a blip on the scale. Even one percent for sale at any given time would be 900. And that certainly wouldn't seem to be an unreasonable amount to see for sale.

DisFlan