Is it just me or has the resale market been hot?

[Kidanifan08]

So do you think I could get $100/pt for my August 50 point BWV contract that has all 50 2013 points available?

I am not planning to sell, but if the prices keep rising like this..........

Anything is possible. It just takes one person that really wants to own at BWV and it's still a savings over direct. Would probably have a high chance of passing ROFR

The recession had put a glut of contracts on the market with lots of sellers that desperately needed to sell, which set the market fairly low. Those low prices stayed for a few years, right up until about six months ago.

----snip----

Look at AKV, those resale prices continue to tumble because there are lots of contracts for sale. Those prices are falling despite Disney upping the direct price to $145 per point.

Maybe not, but I think if you stripped it by renting the points you could sell it for $90!

Honestly, I think a 50 pt BWV (or BCV) with current UY points could be listed for around $100. There are obviously plenty of people who are interested in location, and spending a little extra is not a problem for those buyers. It's only a $500 difference between $90 and $100 per point for your 50 pointer. As ELMC pointed out, you could strip it and sell it for $90, or keep it the way it is and perhaps sell for $100.

At this point, I think that small contracts (<100 pts) at most resorts could sell for a premium. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if a 50 point AKV with current UY points would sell for around $90 in the current market. Those small add-ons are a hot commodity. But those 160 plus-ers at AKV will still be listing in the $70-80's. AKV's weakness is the relative glut of available resale contracts. Although, the board sponsor has had a relatively empty AKV cupboard for the past few weeks. I do think that the days of AKV contracts being listed in the $60's are over, for now. Not that they can't be had in the $60's, but sellers are probably going to list higher given the recent resale trends.

 

[NoleFan]

If by "stabilize" you mean stay fixed, then never. The resale market is fluid and subject to a number of economic and emotional factors. I would suggest that prices are extremely stable in that the fluctuations are within a fixed range and they happen incrementally and over time, as opposed to sporadically and with no explanation or trend. Eventually prices will hit a ceiling (which cannot be predicted really) and will ebb and flow from there. But I wouldn't expect to get anything close to the deals of 2012 for some time, sorry to say.

Right now, prices continue to rise so I would not term them as stabilized. What I mean by stabilize is remain in some sort of range instead of continual increase or decrease.

 

[ELMC]

I do think that the days of AKV contracts being listed in the $60's are over, for now. Not that they can't be had in the $60's, but sellers are probably going to list higher given the recent resale trends.

And given the number of AKV owners with a loan balance, unfortunately for them.

 

[NoleFan]

I am not sure what you mean by this statement? I always thought the ROFR thread was a great tool for buyers and for information in general but the longer I am on these boards I realize many who contribute information to the boards do not disclose their resale activity why is that? Just wondering that is all. btw I think paying what a person is comfortable with and what works for them and their family is all that matters.

I think the ROFR thread is an excellent resource- am grateful to those who choose to contribute & those who compile the info. I have looked at it on more than 1 occasion. If you buy a contract where there is a waitlist (resort, UY), pay under/more than market, etc. it can lead to open discussion. Prefer to leave that door closed and instead talk about having fun using my points. Just a personal preference.

 

[Kidanifan08]

And given the number of AKV owners with a loan balance, unfortunately for them.

Herein lies the wisdom of breaking a large contract into small parts. I wish I had know about that with our initial 268 point direct contract. I even tried to convince a friend to break up his 350 point BLT for potential future resale value when he was purchasing, but he did not feel a need to consider it. At that point in time, it would not have even cost him anything. The small increase in closing costs for breaking up a direct purchase contract of greater than 100 points is money well spent.

 

[dbs1228]

I think the ROFR thread is an excellent resource- am grateful to those who choose to contribute & those who compile the info. I have looked at it on more than 1 occasion. If you buy a contract where there is a waitlist (resort, UY), pay under/more than market, etc. it can lead to open discussion. Prefer to leave that door closed and instead talk about having fun using my points. Just a personal preference.

I know what you mean! Its a shame that people feel that way since I get the feeling a lot of the post on the ROFR thread are people who got a good deal vs. the big picture of what the resale market is actually doing. I agree it is a personal preference and everyone has their own financial/personal situations.

After talking to all 3 major resellers over the past 5 months - the prices for BWV being sold for/taken back by Disney is not reflected accurately at all on the thread. I guess the asking prices are more in line to what people are paying then what people are actually posting.

I too enjoy my points and made a huge mistake by getting the GV at BLT over NYE that is why I need more points loved it!!!!!!

 

[ELMC]

I think the ROFR thread is an excellent resource- am grateful to those who choose to contribute & those who compile the info. I have looked at it on more than 1 occasion. If you buy a contract where there is a waitlist (resort, UY), pay under/more than market, etc. it can lead to open discussion. Prefer to leave that door closed and instead talk about having fun using my points. Just a personal preference.

I'm sorry, but I don't see your point. What is it exactly that you're trying to avoid by not posting?

 

[NoleFan]

I'm sorry, but I don't see your point. What is it exactly that you're trying to avoid by not posting?

Personal preference is not to post details of my contracts simply stated.

 

[katieam1]

This has to cap soon (I think). Just got word from a broker that 3 separte 25 pt. BLT contracts went for their asking prices of between $110-$115. Now, I get those are nice small contracts. But still, $110+ is high, especially considering closing costs on each of those.

If you're a DISer selling those congrats . BUT, at the same time, boo for not accepting our offers .

I can't believe that's sustainable. One of the 3 was sold within the hour, the other 2 in less than 24 hours.

Crazy.

Wow on price, guess I am glad I missed them because I was not going to put in a bid at asking. I tried to call on those but was too late at getting there!! I called on all three on Wednesday morning at like 11 when I first saw them online, they were wrapping up the deals when I called and then an hour or so noticed the sale pending on them. I was sad, but oh well I would not have wanted to pay that anyways.

 

[DougEMG]

Prices for BWV had been ticking up slowly for the past year due to the dwindling supply of contracts. Disney's ROFR activity introduced a new source of demand that combined with buyer interest to completely decimate the BWV inventory. At one time there were less than five total BWV contracts for sale among several brokers.

What I've been wondering about is if this lack of supply will continue and I'm thinking that at resorts like BWV, VWL and BCV the lack of supply will continue and here's why.

When the resorts were originally sold, anyone who wanted to buy at DVC had to buy what was currently being marketed regardless of if that was really their favorite resort. Over time though as more and more resale purchases are made at those resorts, those resale owners are buying because they want to stay at that resort (if they wanted cheap they'd being buying SSR or OKW). And since these resorts are all 12+ years of more old, that has been a lot of time for the mix of owners to switch over to a majority that want to own at those resorts. Finally BCV (3M points), VWL (2M points) and BWV (5M points) are all small resorts as compared to SSR(15M points), so there aren't as many available contracts in the first place.

So I would expect future supplies of those resorts to stay at these kinds of levels. It should also make those resorts harder and harder to get into at the 7 month mark.

 

[ELMC]

Personal preference is not to post details of my contracts simply stated.

Yes, that part was clear and easily understood. What I did not understand was what you were trying to say about having the details of the contract become the topic of conversation. I find it interesting that you are willing to participate in conversations about other people's purchases and perhaps even offer the type of feedback that you yourself are trying to avoid, but not willing to subject yourself to the same experience.

 

[ELMC]

What I've been wondering about is if this lack of supply will continue and I'm thinking that at resorts like BWV, VWL and BCV the lack of supply will continue and here's why.

When the resorts were originally sold, anyone who wanted to buy at DVC had to buy what was currently being marketed regardless of if that was really their favorite resort. Over time though as more and more resale purchases are made at those resorts, those resale owners are buying because they want to stay at that resort (if they wanted cheap they'd being buying SSR or OKW). And since these resorts are all 12+ years of more old, that has been a lot of time for the mix of owners to switch over to a majority that want to own at those resorts. Finally BCV (3M points), VWL (2M points) and BWV (5M points) are all small resorts as compared to SSR(15M points), so there aren't as many available contracts in the first place.

So I would expect future supplies of those resorts to stay at these kinds of levels. It should also make those resorts harder and harder to get into at the 7 month mark.

I completely agree. Let's not forget that people buy DVC because they like to vacation at Disney. It is the exception, not the rule that this changes. So the default is for people to keep their contracts.

 

[NoleFan]

Yes, that part was clear and easily understood. What I did not understand was what you were trying to say about having the details of the contract become the topic of conversation. I find it interesting that you are willing to participate in conversations about other people's purchases and perhaps even offer the type of feedback that you yourself are trying to avoid, but not willing to subject yourself to the same experience.

If you put your business out there, then it is subject to other's opinion. If you don't, you are clearly making a choice not to get the opinion of others. Just like you are posting why I do or do not post details & I have no interest in your opinion as to why I do or do not. Reasons exactly like this why people are hesitant to post. Case proven.

 

[ELMC]

If you put your business out there, then it is subject to other's opinion. If you don't, you are clearly making a choice not to get the opinion of others. Just like you are posting why I do or do not post details & I have no interest in your opinion as to why I do or do not. Reasons exactly like this why people are hesitant to post. Case proven.

Well I wouldn't say that you have no interest. I mean, you did take the time to respond, didn't you?

 

[Missyrose]

If you put your business out there, then it is subject to other's opinion. If you don't, you are clearly making a choice not to get the opinion of others. Just like you are posting why I do or do not post details & I have no interest in your opinion as to why I do or do not. Reasons exactly like this why people are hesitant to post. Case proven.

I guess the only counter-argument I'd make to this sentiment is there wouldn't be a ROFR thread for people to use as a tool to determine a fair price for their offers if everyone refused to disclose their deals.

Everyone has the right to abstain, but once your contract is closed, I don't understand the harm in posting the details. It could help the next person who might be frustrated that they can't get a seller to agree to the lower prices they saw on the ROFR thread.

For example, I took some heat when I bought an 80-point BLT contract last year for $90 per point (sellers paid MFs and closing). At the time, prices for BLT were typically in the high $70s to about $90 per point. Even though I paid at the top of that range, the contract was a perfect size for me. And when you factor in the MFs and CC, the price per point came way down. But people really seemed to focus on that $90 per point number and I can understand that, but the contract worked for me and I had no problem saying just that.

 

[dbs1228]

I'm sorry, but I don't see your point. What is it exactly that you're trying to avoid by not posting?

I could ask you the same question as to why you post a lot on the boards yet very little on ROFR thread for the contracts you are trying to buy/sold and bought. If I remember correctly I thought you posted that you had something like 5 contracts taken back by Disney - I think that was you but I do not see the info posted? Just curious it is helpful information.

 

[ELMC]

I could ask you the same question as to why you post a lot on the boards yet very little on ROFR thread for the contracts you are trying to buy/sold and bought. If I remember correctly I thought you posted that you had something like 5 contracts taken back by Disney - I think that was you but I do not see the info posted? Just curious it is helpful information.

It's a fair question. If you go back far enough, you will see a fair few of my contracts on there, unless they got chopped off because they are old. As for the others, I've disclosed the details in conversations that I've had on various threads as it pertains to the context of the conversation. I don't update the ROFR thread simply because that's not one of the threads on this board that I frequently read or post on, and haven't since this time last year. I suppose you could say that I'm not being helpful, and that is a fair criticism. But I feel that the contributions I make on other threads more than make up for my lack of posts on the ROFR thread.

Actually, I don't even keep track of my own timelines or details. I know that I will eventually close on a SSR 150 for $57pp. I don't remember when contracts were signed, I don't remember when it was sent to ROFR, I don't remember when it passed, and I don't remember when I sent the check in. Seriously. I'm sure I can access that information because it's all in the file, but I don't have it at the tip of my fingers. All I know is that it will close sometime soon. If, in a few weeks, I go on my membership account and the points aren't there, that might prompt a phone call to my broker, closing company or Disney. But until then, it is what it is. I tried doing the timeline thing with my first contract and not only did it drive me crazy trying to track all the dates, but it stressed me out waiting for ROFR. So when I advise people to submit their contracts and forget about it for the next month, now you know where I'm coming from.

I hope I answered your question.

 

[NoleFan]

Well I wouldn't say that you have no interest. I mean, you did take the time to respond, didn't you?

Not for your interest, for your amusement possibly. Let's be clear that I ever solicited your opinion. Bazinga

 

[ELMC]

Not for your interest, for your amusement possibly. Let's be clear that I ever solicited your opinion. Bazinga

Dude, if you're going to zing me please don't have a typo. I think you meant to say that you "never" solicited my opinion. Regardless, I think you find me fascinating, which is why you will respond to this post also. Now you're torn. You want to respond, but you don't want to prove me right. What is a DVC owner to do?

 

[NoleFan]

For example, I took some heat when I bought an 80-point BLT contract last year for $90 per point (sellers paid MFs and closing). At the time, prices for BLT were typically in the high $70s to about $90 per point. Even though I paid at the top of that range, the contract was a perfect size for me. And when you factor in the MFs and CC, the price per point came way down. But people really seemed to focus on that $90 per point number and I can understand that, but the contract worked for me and I had no problem saying just that.

It's for reasons like that why I choose not to disclose the details of my contracts. Not subject to anyone's opinion. I agree the ROFR thread is a great resource & kudos to those that choose to contribute & compile the info. However, in that same thread we have seen comments on paid too much/little, can't believe that passed when there is a wait list, why did this pass and this pass did not, etc. Too much drama sometimes so no thanks.