Is it difficult to find availability for Value Studios 7 months out?

Also curious what you mean about the first week in December comparing it to easter. Is it busy or dead?
The first two weeks of December are very popular with DVC owners because the weather is generally pleasant, the holiday decorations are up and the festivities have begun AND the points charts are low. As a result, a lot of DVC members plan a trip during that time period and competition for studios is pretty intense with some owners walking their rooms starting in October.
 
We are getting close to our 7 month window to move if we desire. I am surprised to find many studios still available at multiple resorts.
 
Thank you for the thoughtful response. If you were to recommend a home resort to someone focusing on the middle point between actually being able to book something and bang for the buck what would you suggest?

Also curious what you mean about the first week in December comparing it to easter. Is it busy or dead?

DVC has two distinct demand seasons. The high to extremely high demand time from late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan and the rest of the year which is more moderate and even the holidays between mid-Jan and mid-Sep, though busy, do not have the room demand levels that exist in that high demand season.

The highest DVC demand week of the year is first week of Dec, Christmas week is second, and second week of Dec is third. fourth is a tie between the Tuesday through Fri of Thanksgiving week and the Thurs through Sunday of the Wine and Dine race weekend In the early part of November, marathon weekend in Jan is fifth, followed by the Thurs before Columbus Day through the weekend after Columbus Day. During that high demand season, finding anything at 7-months out at any near park resort is usually difficult, except for an occasional 1BR. Often during that time, the only things with openings for five days to a week are Kidani savanna view, OKW rooms (other than GVs) that are not in the near Hospitality House booking category, SSR rooms, and sometimes 1BRs at other resorts. Also, even those rooms can be gone before 7-months out during the extremely high demand times.

During that mid-Jan to late Sep time, the highest demand time is the Princess half-marathon weekend (Thurs to Sun) in late Feb and time around July 4 is the highest holiday demand time during that season, and neither of those times has the same demand level as anytime during late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan. Example: Poly studios are very often open at 7-months out during the moderate demand season other than race weekends and a risk otherwise for some holiday times but seldom open at 7-months out during any of the high demand season.

The lowest demand time of the year is Feb 1 to the Thurs before Presidents' Day, second lowest is July 7 to 31, followed by a tie for third between the Monday after the Princess race weekend to about March 10 and the last week of April. It is during those times when chances can be a little better than other times to get rooms for five consecutive days that otherwise are seldom open at 7-months out, such as BWV boardwalk view studios and VGF studios.

If I were purchasing for the first time today and buying resale:

1. I would avoid CCV because of its 11-month problem for being unable to reserve studios many times of year. I would also avoid BRV, BCV and BWV. All are excellent resorts (BWV is actually my lead resort). BWV has the 11-month issue. BCV and BRV do not. But my real concern purchasing any of those three now is contract life. They end in Jan 2042, meaning there are only about 20 years left, which I believe would be far too short a period for anyone under 55 (and even that age for purchasing is questionable). Note the same reluctance would apply to OKW for contracts still having the 2042 expiration date (much of OKW now has a 2057 expiration date). Moreover, though all three have fairly high resale prices now, in ten years their resale value has a high risk of being quite low when you consider only ten years will be left.

2. AKV (expires 2057) is actually ideal as long as you enter with the idea of usually getting standard or savanna view and and not purchasing to get value or club level. The rooms have low point cost and the price is low in comparison to any MK resort or Riviera (and I would definitely avoid Riviera since resale cannot use any other resort). The AKV resort creates the feeling of being far away from civilization on a savanna, you get to see all the animals, the pools and restaurants are very good, good daily activities for children and adults, and unbeknownst to many, a little more than half the standard view rooms at Jambo have savanna view, e.g., if you want a savanna view with a standard view reservation, make a request for a room along the Kudo Trail side of the building (the left side when facing the front); if you get that request the room will have savanna view since all standards on that side of the building have savanna view.

3. The MK resorts are expensive, although BLT is a little better. Otherwise, BLT would be fine as long as you are not purchasing to usually get standard view. Poly is very nice resort but I have no desire to own there because of the lack of 1BRs and 2BRs.VGF has some 11-month issues, is very expensive, and there is now a big unknown -- DVC is adding a lot more studios by converting one of the GF buildings, and no one knows what the point cost per night will be for those studios. If it is higher than the existing studios, a real possibility since those hotel rooms being converted have more square feet, an even worse 11-month studio problem than now could develop because many new purchasers of the new studios will be trying for the cheaper point-cost original studios at 11-months out.

4. Thus, outside of AKV, and possibly BLT, that basically leaves SSR and OKW. SSR (2054 end date) has many detractors, principally due to location. Personal view is that there is no location problem. The buses get you to any park fairly quickly. It is very close to Disney Springs, an experience in itself. It has a golf course on site. Though it is very spread out, the grounds are beautiful for walking around and just looking. There are two good themed pools. Its recent refurbishment greatly improved the rooms, including having the queen-sized Murphy bed that pulls down over the couches. Price is very reasonable, as are point costs per night, and you have the opportunity to possibly get rooms elsewhere at 7-months out. If it were between the two, I would probably choose SSR over OKW, but OKW (as long as you get 2057 end date) has the lowest point costs of any resort while also having larger rooms than many others. You also have the possibility of getting rooms elsewhere at 7-months out.
 
If your goal is cost efficiency, you can’t beat OKW/SSR because of the charts and contract length. Hard to argue with a 10 point OKW room.

If you also want a good location, I’d pick AKL — standard is bookable and a good point value — or BLT. BLT is more money upfront, but I think it still has room to run and will hold value better than all the rest. The cheap BLT bookings are always booked.

If you want to pay less now, I also think there’s an argument to be made for Boardwalk. Short contract, but cheaper now, and the cheaper booking is a tough one because it’s such good point value. I also think it won’t depreciate linearly, so there’s something to be said for holding it for 5-6 years.

Or, the plan with math holding strong for many years. Just buy some SSR and get what you get at 7 months
 

From my experiences, and also what I've learned here... I would buy AKL.
We own there... and love it. Just talked my friend into buying here too. Nothing better than waking up looking at a giraffe.
 
Holy bajeezus. You're amazing. I'm going over this with my wife tonight and we'll likely be putting up offers starting tomorrow. We don't have needs until 2023 so we have time to find a good price/accrue points. Any chance you also watch prices? Any particular price points I should be aiming for at any of AKV/SSR/OKW?
 
I would second the comments about Copper Creek. I own there and it is extremely difficult to get studios outside the 11-month window, and as mentioned Christmas is extremely popular there due its amazing decorations and tree.

That being said I love the place. ha

I also don't mind doing split stays during a trip, but some people prefer to stay in 1 resort and not move. That also can help with planning if you are finding it hard to get reservations for the full length of your trip.

As mentioned, your main discussion should center on the time of year you usually travel, OR if you are flexible, being able to go to whatever resort is available.
 
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Holy bajeezus. You're amazing. I'm going over this with my wife tonight and we'll likely be putting up offers starting tomorrow. We don't have needs until 2023 so we have time to find a good price/accrue points. Any chance you also watch prices? Any particular price points I should be aiming for at any of AKV/SSR/OKW?

Though I check on resale prices occasionally, I do not claim expertise. There are several online brokers that specialize in DVC sales and you can review what is for sale and going prices by reviewing the informarion on their sites, and get a pretty good idea of the range of current resale prices.

Overall resale prices change frequently and tend to follow DVD's price increases for new points, i.e., when DVVD raises prices, you will also soon thereafter see prices rise for resales. The exception to that pattern can occur during severe economic downturns. For example, during the Great Recession, resale prices went down significantly for some time. Meanwhile, Disney, whose usual reaction to an economic disaster is to raise prices signifcantly, actually raised point prices a lot during that period, including a total of a 40% price increase for BLT via several increases done over a two-year period.

In any event, you will probably see many resales with prices per point for a particular resort having some ranges. Important is to determine what you actually want and what is actually being sold. That requires considering some factors, including:

1. You need to consider desired use year or range of use years. There are 8 possible use year beginning months (there is no January, May, July or November use year). Suppose your likely usual annual trip is in May. The best use year, when you have a usual time for going annually, is one that starts fairly shortly before the usual time that you go. If May, an April use year would be ideal but February and March would also be OK. Why? Assume a June use year and a May 2022 reservation. The "current" use year points for that reservation would be those issued June 2021, which expire May 31, 2022, unless banked, and they can only be banked if done before the end of the eighth of your use year, January 31 for a June use year. Now assume in March 2022, you need to cancel that May 2022 trip. The cancellation would occur after the eighth month of your use year and thus those June 2021 points cannot be banked if you cancel in March 2022. Result of the cancellation: you have less than two months to use those points for a trip that ends by May 31, 2022, or otherwise they are lost.

Now assume the same May 2022 trip but an April use year. The "current" use year points for that trip are those from April 2022. Cancel in March 2022 and the April 2022 points all go back into your April 2022 use year and you still have a whole year to use them and could even bank them as late as Nov 30, 2022.

2. You need to consider total points to purchase. Typically it should be a somewhat more than you think you actually need to make that desired annual reservation trip or trips in a year. That is because there can be seasonal point shifts because of changes in total demand during different seasons, and DVC can raise points needed in one season while lowering them by an equal amount in another season. Thus, buying exactly only the number of points you would need for the desired room size for about the same time annually could result in the future in your having too few points to reserve all the desired nights, at which time you may desire to buy more points to overcome the problem and find that the prices have gone up 20%, including resale prices, since you first purchased. In fact, if it is to buy only fairly small number of points resale like 25 to 50, you will find those prices to be even higher than others because small contracts have more demand.

3. If you see similar contracts for a like number of points at the same resort that you would like to purchase but very different prices, you should not immediately conclude that the lower price contract is the one you want. You need to determine what is actually being sold. For example, you could possibly find two 160-point contracts with a June use year today and one may be priced significantly higher than the other. A common reason for that is the difference in what is actually being sold. The higher-priced one could have all the June 2021 points still available and even some 2020 points banked into the June 2021 use year, thus giving you lot of points to use over the next year, and possibly even bank some later. Meanwhile, that much lower-priced contract may have already used most of the 2021 points and even borrowed some from the June 2022 use year, leaving you with the inability to reserve any time during the next year or more. It is thus priced lower because it has less immediate value.

4. To aid in the evaluation of what to offer, try to find out not just asking prices but what has actually been the prices for fairly recent sales made. There are sites that provide some of that information such this thread on Disboards: www.disboards.com/threads/rofr-thread-july-to-sept-2021-please-see-first-post-for-instructions-formatting-tool.3843478/ and a related site, DVCstats.com
 
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Very difficult at 11 months out. Almost impossible at 7 months. At least this was my experience with akl in the last 3 years…
 
Lessons to be learned from all these posts...
...Buy where you want to stay at to get the 11 month booking advantage. And get a use year to match when you want to travel.
 















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