Is DVC Getting Too Big ???

[lllovell]

Laura

Thank you for your comments! I am wondering, then, what times during value season (ie low season at the parks) is it easier to book DVC? "Low time" at the parks is becoming fewer and far between.

What has the experience been with booking in January, which is when we normally travel to WDW?

Inga

It is my understanding that January is much easier to get than December. December has all the benefits of the Christmas decorations, programs, etc so it really attracts people. I have not tried for a January reservation, so hopefully someone else that has can chime in here and let you know their experiences.

I wouldn't give up on those December waitlists just yet though!

Good luck,

Laura

 

[bicker]

But that doesn't have anything at all to do with the overall size of DVC, but the relative sizes of the resorts to one another.

Or perhaps what governs this most is the relative popularity/attractiveness of the various resorts among DVC members. Or perhaps it is a combination of popularity/attractiveness and relative size.

 

[Dean]

Whether DVC is too big or too small depends on your home resort, planned usage and how much you will trade around. If you want a "destination resort" like BCV or VWL or even BWV, and want to stay there most visits, DVC is already too large, esp if you have trouble planning more than 7 months out or don't own at that resort. IF you want to try as many places as possible and want a lot of choices, the larger and more resorts the better. Since one will always have a home resort priority, it isn't that big a deal as long as you own where you want to stay most trips. But anyone owning SSR, OKW, HH or VB and wanting to stay at the "destination resorts" most trips are likely going to have problems over time. In part it will depend on when you want to travel and the unit size you need. It will also depend on your flexibility.

But if you plan at least 7 months ahead, are flexible and make a home resort reservation at 11 months or so out, one should be set most of the time. Esp if you use the wait list appropriately. IMO, it's likely that a larger percent of non "destination resort" owners will trade over time than the reverse, and that's OK. Even if the actual percentage difference is small, given the size of those resorts and corresponding points associated, they will have a large effect. IF DVC adds other resorts like EP, it will get even worse. IF they add places like the CR, it will get only a little better. OF course some times of the year won't be a problem regardless of needs and desires.

 

[debloco]

I'd keep popularity out of it. It gets into resort wars. We wouldn't want to imply that SSR were somehow inferior because it is large - it isn't and its a favorite of plenty of people....while VWL is superior (I happen to like it a lot - and I'm a BWV owner - but it certainly isn't everyone's favorite resort) simply because its small.
You don't even need to go there.

I specifically did not mention or call out any resort for this very reason. I personally don't believe that any of the DVC resorts are inherently inferior or superior. It comes down to personal taste; which is why I purposely did not mention any resort.
But the popularity issue itself is a component to this discussion.

The simple reality is that there are only a few VWL owners looking for rooms at somewhere other than VWL on any given night compared to the number of SSR owners looking for a room at somewhere other than SSR on a given night. And that there are fewer rooms at VWL than at SSR on that night for people looking to stay there. SSR could be a more popular resort - but it needs to be more than four times more popular if it is going to balance demand with the small VWL. That's the "just math" part.

Correct you are on the "just math" part. But I would still maintain that the popularity and size of any given resort is a also a factor. These are not mutually exclusive ideas. Both realities are at work in the DVC system.
bicker summed it up well

Or perhaps what governs this most is the relative popularity/attractiveness of the various resorts among DVC members. Or perhaps it is a combination of popularity/attractiveness and relative size.

But that doesn't have anything at all to do with the overall size of DVC, but the relative sizes of the resorts to one another. And that only impacts people trying to switch. Those of us that understand the system probably will never really have a big problem - we know to call right at seven months, day by day if need be, waitlist if necessary, and have a backup plan. Its the people who don't know (Hi, Inga - you'll learn - early December is tough this close - but next year you'll likely find something right at seven months) who are likely to have problems. They may or may not create a stink.

I would argue that the potential for people who don't know has increased at a rapid pace. From Feb 2001 to today, membership has gone from just shy of 54K, to near 100K. That's almost double in just over 4 years. My strong hunch is that most of those new members did not know about resales, don't visit the DISboards, and are facing the same learning curve as Inga. And the DVC salespeople do push the fact that "you can stay at any of the DVC properties!" The details and realities of booking windows and seasonal demand are lost on many. But if as a newbie hearing the sales presentation I find out that I can stay somewhere I like better (but they tell me isn't available to purchase anymore) and they make it sound so easy; why not buy whichever resort they happen to be selling?
And none of that addresses the issue of that many more members competing for units at the smaller resorts.

As for advertising, AlanH has a great point. DVC at BWV, BCV and VWL had a in house audience to advertise to - people staying at those resorts or nearby who saw the construction. SSR is off the beaten path, some Disney visitors aren't going to see it at all, some won't realize its on property. Therefore its a bigger project with lower visability.

Good point by AlanH. ITA. But I also believe that the advertising it a bit much these days.

And Dean summed up the issue very well too.

 

[drakethib]

Of course one other factor is the number of points needed to stay at particular resorts. As more and more people buy into new DVC resorts, they will notice the appeal of staying at OKW, or the standard views at BWV where the number of points is much lower. I'm still a bit shocked at the cost of the Grand Villas at OKW compared to any other DVC resorts!

Dude.

Shhhhh.

Remeber OKW west is bad.

The worst place at Disney as a matter of fact.

People don't want to stay there because it is such a horrible place.Right? wink wink.

 

[dsneygirl]

I guess I don't feel the advertising is out of proportion to the way it was in the past. All those things (the TV channel for DVC in the rooms, the kiosks, the advertising in buses etc) were around long before we purchased in 1997 too.

DH and I have been every year sometimes twice the last few years and always noticed lots of DVC kiosks everywhere so I don't think they are more prevelent.

 

[crisi]

Or perhaps what governs this most is the relative popularity/attractiveness of the various resorts among DVC members. Or perhaps it is a combination of popularity/attractiveness and relative size.

Certainly, but we don't have the means to measure relative popularity/attractiveness (other than my favorites are right and everyone else is wrong - which is of course the best objective measure even if no one else agrees with me) so its best for us to work off the objective data we have than the data that is mere speculation, and which leads us to endless arguements about whether Corian countertops and Thomasville furniture are more attractive than the VWL theming, how OKW room size/point value and the ability to park in front of your unit is worth more than SAB and other completely subjective measures.

(The ugly shower curtain alone should be reason enough for anyone to think twice about BWVs. The standard view or guarenteed BWV is nice, but you pay for it when those shower curtains are burned on your retina. Oh, wait, was that subjective? I'm kidding, I own BWVs and we like it there - but I do find the shower curtains ugly.)

 

[TDC Nala]

I have never had any problem booking at any DVC resort I wanted to stay at. I own at BCV and generally book there before the 7 month window, but I've had a few bookings at BWV.

 

[Beach_Bound9]

Yes, absolutely, without question, DVC is getting too big!!!!!!!

 

[bicker]

Certainly, but we don't have the means to measure relative popularity/attractiveness

So the soundest alternative is to acknowledge that we don't have the information necessary for the analysis, and acknowledge that without it we'll have no way of knowing what the impact will be of adding more members. Don't get me wrong: Speculation is fine, as long as we keep in mind that there's really no validity to our conclusions because we're missing critical information.

Interesting discussion. Nice chatting with y'all.

 

[bcvillastwo]

I completely agree with Dean, he said:

But if you plan at least 7 months ahead, are flexible and make a home resort reservation at 11 months or so out, one should be set most of the time.

Flexibility is a real help and fortunately for us we have the flexibility to travel virtually any time we like and it will get only better when I retire in 2007.

We've been DVC members since 2002 and we have a BCV contact. We travel in the Spring (March, April, and May) Fall (late September to early November) and we had one trip in early December. To date we've made 10 trips using our points and we've not had any trouble getting into HH, BWV, WLV or BCV. When we've reserved rooms at BCV we've always reserved before the 7 month window but I can't think of one time we did it at the 11 month window.

When we've tried to get rooms at HH, BWV, or WLV it's been in the 7-6 month timeframe and we've always been flexible. If they haven't had what we wanted at one resort during the 3-5 week time period we just asked if they had something at one of the other resorts during that time period. So far it has worked out just fine for us.

No one can predict the future but it's possible that with the addition of SSR and perhaps other DVC resorts that our experience could change in the future but only time will tell.

Many people seem to be, and have been, putting a great deal of thought into this subject and the conventional wisdom remains--buy where you want to stay in order to take advantage of the 11 month window.

This is an interesting discussion and I will continue to watch how events unfold.

 

[Sammie]

So the soundest alternative is to acknowledge that we don't have the information necessary for the analysis, and acknowledge that without it we'll have no way of knowing what the impact will be of adding more members. Don't get me wrong: Speculation is fine, as long as we keep in mind that there's really no validity to our conclusions because we're missing critical information.

Interesting discussion. Nice chatting with y'all.

Absolutely, there is no way, unless some has a crystal ball they are hiding from us, that anyone can accurately predict the impact if any.

 

[rinkwide]

...unless some has a crystal ball...

Well, since you brought it up, I'm pretty sure I once overheard Madam Leota espousing buy-where-you-want-to-stay. Let's see, how did she put it? Oh yes:

<I>Beach Club or Boardwalk, Wilderness Lodge...

Buy there at once or face the barrage...</i>

 

[Johnnie Fedora]

Is DVC getting too big.

No, but their current "for sale" property is...at least for my tastes. I'd like to see what the next DVC resort will be. I wish they had more than one property to sell at a time. When we bought, VWL, BWV, HH and VB were all for sale.

 

[dianeschlicht]

No, but their current "for sale" property is...at least for my tastes. I'd like to see what the next DVC resort will be. I wish they had more than one property to sell at a time. When we bought, VWL, BWV, HH and VB were all for sale.

When we bought, OKW, BWV, HH, and Vero were all for sale, and we chose OKW, because that's where we wanted to be. If I had it to do over again, I would do the same thing. I guess for me, it doesn't make a lot of difference, since I plan to mostly stay at my "home". I

Johnny, I suspect the reason they haven't done that again, is they learned that a location that had less of a draw was more difficult to sell. I suspect they wont announce anything IN FLORIDA while SSR is stilll selling. I do, however, feel they will soon announce a DVC in California.

 

[Granny]

Well, since you brought it up, I'm pretty sure I once overheard Madam Leota espousing buy-where-you-want-to-stay. Let's see, how did she put it? Oh yes:

<I>Beach Club or Boardwalk, Wilderness Lodge...

Buy there at once or face the barrage...</i>

Very nice!

 

[doubletrouble_vb]

I believe the easiest months inside of 7 months to book are January into early Feb and September up to the F&W. Also May isn't too bad. I haven't tried any part of Nov pre-Thanksgiving but I'd imagine that might be not bad either.

As someone who has never booked in the 7-11 window (and stuck with it) I have to say it is becoming more difficult to get short notice reservations on the first try.

 

[John VN]

No, but their current "for sale" property is...at least for my tastes. I'd like to see what the next DVC resort will be. I wish they had more than one property to sell at a time. When we bought, VWL, BWV, HH and VB were all for sale.

There will be,

a monorail DVC,

just wait and see.

There will also be....but if I told you, I'd have to ...

John

 

[houseofmouse]

There is also a huge push going on out here in California at Disneyland. Kiosks inside both parks and at Downtown Disney. I guess if I got in on the "secret" I shouldn't feel too bad about others getting in on it too.

 

[thelobstershanty]

When we bought, OKW, BWV, HH, and Vero were all for sale, and we chose OKW, because that's where we wanted to be. If I had it to do over again, I would do the same thing. I guess for me, it doesn't make a lot of difference, since I plan to mostly stay at my "home". I

Johnny, I suspect the reason they haven't done that again, is they learned that a location that had less of a draw was more difficult to sell. I suspect they wont announce anything IN FLORIDA while SSR is stilll selling. I do, however, feel they will soon announce a DVC in California.

I agree that DVC learned alot about how quickly a DVC resort in a location that had less of a draw, then another one did. This was shown with how quickly BWV, VWL and especially BCV sold out. True, all are smaller resorts but they have all always been very popular resorts and the hardest to book w/o the "home" advantage. Not saying any DVC resort is better than another. We love them all. However the more desirable park locations resorts, do appeal to many. Resale prices and consistent difficulty in booking are some examples.
What I disagree with, is the next DVC resort location being in CA. Could be wrong, but there has been too many rumors, for too long. including many from CMs; for me not to think the next DCV resort is going to be at the CR.
This will have 2 DVC resorts available through Disney at the same time. But the DVC resort at CR will be small and will sell out very quickly. There are many people that would love a DVC resort just a walk, monorail or boat ride away form the MK, Wishes, some of WDW's best restaurants and dinner shows. and a nightly viewing of the Electricall Water Parade-from your resort.
This will enable DVC to have 2 very different resorts available to appeal to many. The DVC CR resort will produce quick revenue that may be re invested in the further expansion of SSR.
I think a DVC resort in CA would also be a very quick seller, but where are they going to put it? Unless they make one of the existing hotels into a DVC resort. Or somehow add on a small DVC resort on an existing resort--but there still would be a space problem.