Is DVC a good buy for someone who usually stays in moderates?

[mr.morrow!!]

Hi there,

Curious as to what you're thoughts are on someone who usually stays in moderates every year. Roughly 12-13 nights total a year. Would DVC be a good purchase? Or would I never break even?

 

[Mikey15]

Rates on a moderate these days are ~$300-$400/night depending on promos?

If you're comparing to an economical DVC studio somewhere like OKW or SSR your annual maintenance fees could be <$1,000 for 7 nights' worth of points. The other resorts can get more expensive, but I think that's pretty reasonable compared to cash price for moderate. The catch is you have to buy in to the tune of ~5 figures, and it takes some years to recoup that.

If you're willing to "prepay for years of vacations" as they pitch in timeshare land, and you really spend ~2 weeks per year in moderates, it can definitely work out for you over the long haul. Not everyone is that committed to Disney vacationing, of course.

 

[intamin]

IMO if you plan to come consistently year affer year and stay in moderates then generally yes assuming a couple of things.

1. Staying on property is a must for you, some people are okay with staying off property at a nearby airbnb or something like Swolphin where the cost can be considerably less
2. You’re willing to give up some flexibility in trip planning in order to spend less on deluxe accomodations, with cash stays you can cancel up to 5 days before without penalty and book last minute generally. To fully take advantage of DVC you should generally be booking 7-11 months out and you cannot cancel within 31 days of a reservation or the points go into holding
3. You’re willing to return to Disney every year for the foreseeable future, this one it seems like you have covered if you’re spending nearly 2 weeks a year at Disney World
4. You care about staying in deluxe level rooms - make no mistake although DVC may come out as less per night than a moderate hotel, you are prepaying for 50 years of vacations and the opportunity cost is a factor which is often overlooked. That money could be invested in a stock or CD or property that appreciates in value over time. So on paper it’s less but 200 dollars now means a lot more than 200 dollars in 2070 for example. Compare this to staying in a moderate where the money isn’t taken until the time of the trip.

Overall yes, you will save on rooms compared to moderate level resorts if you’re okay with the above. Most people’s break evens are probably between 8-12 years, I generally lean toward 12 on the safer side but I have a spreadsheet that’s saying otherwise. If you’re going to be spending the money anyway on Disney trips you might as well buy in. Before I bought in we probably went on 5 trips within the past 2 years so I knew I’d be spending the cash regardless of if I had DVC or not and it seems like that’s the case for you as well.

 

[zavandor]

You'll not save a lot if anything at all, but if you buy resale you may get deluxe resorts for moderate pricing.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

I'd say yes and no. Disney inflation is real and crazy on the rooms, so I think you can definitely save even sooner than the 8-12 years posited above. What we didn't count on is going wayyyyy more often with points and wanting more points to go more often, APs, more flights, more food, etc. Now, we love our trips, and hosting extended family would never be a possibility without DVC, so monetarily it's at best a draw, but guaranteed vacations and having the opportunity to bring folks who wouldn't normally get to go, totally worth it to us.

 

[Bearval]

Hi there,

Curious as to what you're thoughts are on someone who usually stays in moderates every year. Roughly 12-13 nights total a year. Would DVC be a good purchase? Or would I never break even?

What moderates do you stay at? ( This will help you determine which "home resort" you would want) How far out do you plan your vacations? ( if you can't plan 7 to 11 months ahead DVC could be a problem for you) Do you see yourself still going to WDW in 10 years? ( might not be worth the trouble if you don't see your self still going to WDW) These are some of the questions you need to ask yourself to see if DVC is for you. If you are still up for it my advice would be resale but buy where you want to stay.

 

[NY Pirate Princess]

I ran spreadsheets on this subject for years. I could never align the lifetime cost of dvc with my values, my cash on hand, or my moderately sized brain.

Last trip in 2022 we paid an outrageous amount of money to stay at CBR. We got a discount too but discounts were small last summer. We enjoyed the resort very much, but I knew for the price we paid I would be a quarter of the way through a small resale contract. I wanted boardwalk but 100 point contracts were too high. I set my sights on okw. Lovely resort and can swap out at 7 months for now for 1 beds

I saved my pennies, stalked the boards, and closed on a 100 point okw contract this month. Paid cash. Booking next month for next summer. 100 points gets me a week in a studio every year, a one bed every other year, manageable dues, current ability to try different resorts, and doesn't lock me into anything unmanageable for 50 years if renting dissolves or I can't go anywhere other than okw for any reason.

I had a lot of doubt and uncertainty while navigating the resale process but I am good now. Every time I have a bad day at work (every day) I sail on over to my dashboard and look at that promise waiting.

I have also unlocked the potential to purchase a smaller direct contract. I might find I want to secure a tiny bwv contract or 50 points at a restricted resort in 3 years when my child is 18 and can go on the deed.

We live in upstate New York so a resale contract i could afford with cash on hand made the most sense.

The universe is literally rubbing my face in the idea that life is short. This is what I want. I did it. I the end, the only break even isn't math related for me.

Good luck.

 

[Stargazer65]

If you're staying in moderates that frequently, you probably will break even. But regardless of the money aspect, I think if you are going that often, and like to stay on property, you will probably get a lot of enjoyment out of DVC. I am of the same mind as the above poster:

the only break even isn't math related for me.

 

[Wedgeout]

It’s Good as long as you are Good with not staying in moderates anymore.

 

[Sandisw]

There are so many ways that people calculate this and there is no right/wrong

Going as many days as you do, it’s very possible for you to get into DVC and be able to stay in the deluxe resorts for the same amount of money..may even save over the long run.

What you might want to look at is whether buying some direct points would be beneficial depending on family size.

Give 13 to 14 days, you are probably an AP holder. Owning 150 direct would qualify you for the Sorcerer AP..which is over $450 cheaper. While those are not guaranteed, that savings can help make up the difference over time between direct and resale.

To be fair, you probably need more than that number to get that many nights..but many people get the minimum direct and then round it out with resale if they don’t care about the resale points not being good at RIV, VDH, or future resorts.

 

[Straulin]

We always stayed in moderates before last year. We stayed at the Yacht Club last January and were hooked. We bought a resell BCV contract a few months later. Then a VGF earlier this year. So I would say break even is a valid concern but also the quality of our vacations really improved with the deluxe accommodations.


The break even is hard to fully calculate. There are moving targets for several items. Moderate room rates. Dues on your contract. Size of your contract (you can get away with smaller contracts at the older resorts due to lower point costs per room/night. Will you look to resell your contract after a certain amount of time or hold it to expiration? If you do resell your contract, what will they go for at that time in the future. What is the investment value of the purchase price if you invested it instead? Will you actually stay in a studio each trip?

So the math isn’t simple. To try to come up with them most simplistic calculation, I would assume maintenance fees will increase at a steady rate compared to cash booking rates at the moderates and therefore just use today’s values. Then assume you are not going to invest the money if you don’t spend it on DVC and assume you keep the contract to expiration.

So you can grab an Old Key West 2042 contract for about $90 per point. Assuming a 200 point contract, that would put you at $18,000 plus closing costs so rounding up to $19,000. For OKW a 200 point contract would generally get you two weeks a year in a studio. For this calc I am assuming one week in April and one in August as that actually totals to exactly 200.

Dues are currently $9.36 per point so $1,872 per year in dues (remember just using today’s rates rather than guessing at increases).

For this calc, let’s assume you keep the contract until expiration. So for the next 18 years of vacations you would pay $19,000 + 18 x $1,872 = $52,696 which averages out to $2,927 per year for two weeks hotel stays. This equates to $209 per night. Of that $133.71 is dues.

Moderate rates vary by resort and by time of year but are generally around $350 per night. So you would definitely save money over time, but when do you start saving?

Assuming $350 per night for the moderate and $209 for OKW, you save $141 per night.

To calculate break even:
$350 per moderate night x Y nights = $19,000 + ($133.71 per DVC night dues x Y nights)

Solve for Y = 87.85 nights = 12.55 weeks = roughly 6.5 years at two weeks a year. For good measure I would say 7 years you break even.

This math changes drastically from resort to resort and direct vs resell.

For the same calculation for a direct Grand Floridian (making some assumptions on getting standard view or lake view for a total of 336 points for two weeklong trips) the break even comes out at 27.11 years.

 

[RoseGold]

It really depends on when you are going. The math can be fantastic at peak, holiday times (when I do not go), even with heavy point count rooms.

Current math is razor thin against renting points, if that is an option that works for you. If I were buying now, I don't think I could make the math work at all against renting, especially if that cash makes money in the market, like it does right now. Math works great, if you assume investing five figures is worthless, which I do not.

And don't forget Swolphin, which is WAY nicer than a moderate and gives the late night hours of a deluxe.

 

[bakerworld]

When we joined DVC the guide said, cost wise, we'd break even. However our focus was staying at a park walkable location at the cost of a moderate so DVC made sense to us. Plus we didn't have to stay in the same place repeatedly.

 

[tidefan]

3. You’re willing to return to Disney every year for the foreseeable future, this one it seems like you have covered if you’re spending nearly 2 weeks a year at Disney World

Just to add to this point. It's actually not just WDW. Should you purchase into DVC, you really should go out to Aulani at least once. It's an amazing place... and waaaaay more affordable on DVC points...

 

[Robbie Cottam]

As others have said you will most likely find that you can own DVC for the cost of a moderate.... Maybe slightly less.
If this is a simple dollar out lay per vacation then most likely you will be happy.

I have found break even on straight rack rate is between 3 and 5 years. and between 8 and 12 on renting DVC...

It is hard to compare apples to apple, however, a quick search for a random week in January between Coronado Springs v. Saratoga Springs and found it to be about 200 hundred dollar LESS for Saratoga, between renting points at SSR and published rate at the Coronado..... for the lowest level rooms.....

If you move up the preferred room at Coronado and a preferred studio at SSR your savings is closer to 1000 dollars for the week Renting vs. published room charge...

I think as an owner you would realize more of a savings....
It is true figures don't lie, however it is equally as true that Liars figure....

Since we are not comparing apples to apples, I can make either case where DVC is or is not going to save you money in the long run....

The big thing with DVC is you HAVE to use it to find value in it.
It is a commitment.

Are you going to use it every year..... As other have pointed out, once you get the AP you find more reasons to go,
and you can always play the bank borrow game to go every other year, however.....

The VALUE in DVC is really only found when you use it.

The next big thing, is that to get what you want, you really need to be ready to book vacations 11 months in advance....
Maybe 8 in some cases, but last minute trips, even a few months in advance...... are not as simple as booking a cash room. Can they be done.... maybe if you enjoy SSR, or OKW, and you're flexible on room type and location...

I will give you this example,

I purchase 200 points at RIV at $180 per point.
I was able to get an extra years worth of points for free.... Value $20 per point on the rental market.....(opposite of magic beginnings in my book)
My purchase price was 36,000 plus fee's less something else......

I used my free points with my first years worth of point for a 8 night two bedroom stay..... the cash price for that room would have been $17,500. I have 50 points left over that I used for another trip....

My first year I was able to cover half of my cost more than half of my up front cost....

In two more years I will have more than broken even ....

Yes, I have dues in there..... so that why I say after about 5 years my DVC has more than broken even.....

If you can do your math like I do and feel comfortable with it..... then DVC is the option for you....

If you think your money is better off in some index fund..... I think you may come to a different conclusion.....

No real wrong answer here, you just have to pick what is right for you

 

[SheSingsAlong]

Not sure if the website is permitted, so I'm copying the address here and we'll see if the filter blocks it: https://www.mousesavers.com/other-disney-vacations/disney-vacation-club/

Under the header "Opportunity Cost" buried deep in the text is a link to an amazing spreadsheet. You can plug in numbers for various scenarios and see if DVC is "worth it" as far as how much money you will spend across the contract vs. how much you would spend on Disney hotels during the same time frame. It takes into account just about every factor I could think of.

If the link gets blocked maybe I can PM you.

 

[NY Pirate Princess]

if you think your money is better off in some index fund..... I think you may come to a different conclusion

I also put money into an index fund in 2023. I am maxing out my retirement account at work AND paid cash for resale. Now I can retire early AND I must to go to wdw at least every other year for the next 18 years.

Sure, I could have put that $10,800 dvc purchase into a CD or after tax account or under my mattress, but dvc feels far more fun!

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I also put money into an index fund in 2023. I am maxing out my retirement account at work AND paid cash for resale. Now I can retire early AND I must to go to wdw at least every other year for the next 18 years.

Sure, I could have put that $10,800 dvc purchase into a CD or after tax account or under my mattress, but dvc feels far more fun!

Yep, then you get it….
And are not the type I was referring to in that statement

 

[aceshigh73]

I also put money into an index fund in 2023. I am maxing out my retirement account at work AND paid cash for resale. Now I can retire early AND I must to go to wdw at least every other year for the next 18 years.

Sure, I could have put that $10,800 dvc purchase into a CD or after tax account or under my mattress, but dvc feels far more fun!

This is the way!

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Yes. But buy resale to start. Check out akv or ssr resale. Akv value point chart will go far with 100 points.