Actually the Kuka Arm robocoaster is a product of Robocoaster. The Kuka tech is licensed from the Kuka Robotics you mentioned and they provide engineering support and employees:
http://www.robocoaster.com/about
Maybe we're saying the same thing, differently.
Robocoaster is a partner of KUKA entertainment (
www.kuka-entertainment.com), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Kuka Robotics (
www.kuka.com).
You can see evidence of the partnership, here:
http://www.kuka-entertainment.com/en/company/system_partner/
Robocoaster is a branded version of the KUKA coaster (
http://www.kuka-entertainment.com/en/products/robocoaster/). It MAY (I'm not sure...Robocoasters description of history makes it sound like it was, though) have been co-developed with Robocoaster, but the arm tech is all KUKA. KUKA also does all the manufacturing and supplying of the Arm and, I think, the delivery platform (the specialized ride vehicles are, I think the product of Robocoaster, though they are certified by KUKA's engineering for use with the Arm).
Uni's exclusivity agreement is with KUKA Entertainment (and, round about, with KUKA Robotics), for the ARM tech. Not with Robocoaster. Nobody (in the specified regions, over the specified time periods, in a theme park) can use the ARM tech, in any attraction/entertainment based platform.
That obviously blanket covers the Robocoaster/Kuka Coasters..because you can't have that system without the Arm.
Robocoaster is the implementor, installer, reseller, and support company. Uni contracted with them to deliver, install, and support the ride system for FJ.
If Uni's exclusivity agreement was with Robocoaster, just for the specific Robocaoster/KUKA Coaster platform, Disney could simply look for another partner in the chain to implement a somewhat different delivery system for the arm tech. Or create one, themselves (KUKA-
ECV!). It's not, so they can't.
There is no "off the shelf" version of the KUKA arm tech. It's a customized solution per application.
There IS "off the shelf" versions of Robocoaster/KUKA coasters.
There is no sure thing that Disney would choose to work with Robocoaster (they may decide to create their own delivery solution, or work with another partner), even if the KUKA arm tech were available for use to them. They COULD, which might shorten up development time a bit, but, at least in the past (from what's "out there") that was not the route Disney was looking to go with. They had something else in mind.
Diversifying robocoaster's lineup seems like a key move.
KUKA's business decisions on extension likely doesn't consider what's best for one of their partners...but rather what's best for KUKA Entertainment, and KUKA Robotics as a whole.
So..yes...I'm sure Robocoaster would like to have a larger customer pool. They might lobby KUKA not to extend with Universal.
How much KUKA would listen to them? We don't know. But it's certainly not going to be their primary motivating factor.
What is pretty obvious is that KUKA Entertainment is a relatively small piece of KUKA Robotics. Again, entertainment applications don't seem to be their core business for the technology. Thats why I can see them just taking the payoff from Uni. It's easy money.
Kuka 2nd generation units are off the shelf tech, and Forbidden Journey is the first example of the tech. If you want proof on that, "June 2010 First RoboCoaster G2 attraction begins passenger carrying operations."
http://www.robocoaster.com/history
Guess what major attraction opened in June 2010?
ROBOCOASTERS has off the shelf tech, including that 2nd gen model.
There is a difference...the two are really not synonymous, and I think that's the disconnect here.
Drag and dropping an off the shelf ride system in show scenes is within the technical prowess of WDI. It's not illegal for WDI to consider or even approach Kuka. It's illegal for Kuka to sell their system to other parties. Kuka would be the one in hot water. Kuka would have to rebuff WDI.
Approaching KUKA could be viewed as tampering with the existing contract, until it's expiration. If KUKA refused them outright, damages would likely be nil, but it's still exposure (and potential punative action). If any actual "plans" were made, it would be a violation of the exclusivity deal. Given Disney's general handling of business, I think ANY exposure, or risk of exposure, or perception of exposure is going to stop them, cold.
Ahh, but I see this as a drag and drop situation. I'd also keep in mind that FJ was built and designed in a matter of 3 years. That was before G2 was proven. Now it's been used over and over and the teams behind it can execute better then ever.
There was 3 years between the exclusivity deal and opening. I'd guess there was a solid year or more, prior, of Uni actually working on the ride to ensure the tech was worth the deal.
If a group engineers could completely redefine the dark ride experience in 3 years. I bet WDI could use decade old tech with at least 4 years of time with Kuka and perhaps even more in the planning stages before. There's nothing illegal with making prototypes and schematics in house, with the eventual intent to acquire the services of Kuka.
At MOST 4 years of time. Not at least. That would be 2017 to 2021.
It is illegal if they are actually using KUKA's tech (or, rather, it's a violation of the exclusivity deal, and, potentially KUKA's exclusive patents), in the mock ups. If they are mocking up with cardboard and duct tape, and a "It'll work like this" understanding....sure. But that's not going to get you real world schematics and plans. It'll get you a general understanding...but it won't get you blueprints.
Witness 7DMT, and the swinging cars issue that caused a delay. They mocked up, had a general understanding....and then, upon implementation, the cars didn't quite behave as expected. They had to go back to the drawing board to fix the problem.
And that's with tech THEY actually had, in their hands, to play with prior.
I'm wondering the same thing myself, but the flip side is how many more attractions does Universal want with Kuka? Is there demand enough from Universal to justify a longterm exclusivity deal?
Just to keep it off Disney property...depending on how much KUKA wants to extend the regional deal. Again, the market's not BURSTING with buyers, there, given costs to benefit. You've got probably 3 potential suitors (Disney, Sea World,
Lego Land...who already use it in CA).
And I can see Uni doing one more implementation, somewhere, with a different theme. They're not adverse to reusing ride systems (Transformers/Spidey) where appropriately different experiences are there. Given their expansion plans, I can see it being valuable to them.
Edit: I think they're using it, actually, in Gringotts. Not as part of the ride vehicle, but to move some of the screens around. Still arm tech implementation, though, in a theme park.
That seems to be unfair for Robocoaster doesn't it? Say Universal dragged their feet/faced delays and robocoaster would have to push back any potential sales years. That doesn't make sense. Like you say, possible, but Jedimaster's response takes that into consideration.
You said it yourself: Unproven tech, unproven vendor of the tech, and a decade ago. Uni knows when it has leverage (witness the Marvel deal) and how to get good terms. It's just as easy to say it would be unfair to Uni if it were to include construction time. What if the tech didn't perform, under load, as expected? What if they couldn't manufacture the units quickly enough? What if Robocoaster or KUKA ran into trouble when actually implementing the tech? Then Uni's window of exclusivity shrinks (and becomes less valuable) through no fault of their own.
Again, my experience is that it can be any one (or a combination) of those 3 things:Total time (including construction), starting upon deliverables (meaning, when the ride system is delivered to Uni) or in service time (meaning, when the ride is up and functional and signed off on as complete). Absent the actual contract, we don't KNOW which one it is. Even Jim Hill said "at LEAST 2017". I'd agree..that's what we know. At least. Could be as late as Jan 2020.
Don't worry about that, writing most of my posts on my phone makes me all too sympathetic.
Thanks! I try to go back and edit for spelling mistakes (or improper letter placement), but there's usually SOOO many when I'm on the ipad....