Is A Hurricane Headed For Our DVC Homes?

[rinkwide]

What do you think'll happen to maintenence fees if WDW gets hit hard by hurricane Charley.

 

[MDonley]

That's what I like ... a positive thinker. LOL

I'd be inclined to think that DVD has already taken this into consideration and wouldn't raise maintenance fees at all. They're very much aware of the weather possibilities in Florida. Once, when we were at VB, we asked about that and they told us that it shouldn't be a concern.

VB & HHI are probably much more vulnerable than WDW. Besides, what's a little liquid sunshine going to do with so much magic around. JMO

 

[gjw007]

If Disney were hit by the hurricanes (tropical storms), the question is what effect will it have on increased rates in the future. A lot depends on the severity of the storms. I have made reservations for this time of the year at Orlando but I've always wondered about the effects on my vacation plans if the worst would happen. Missing a vacation is a minor interruption but being tossed out of your homes is much more serious. I was in Puerto Rico during Hurricane Hugo. It devasted the eastern portion of the island. I worked in Pico Del Este, the tropical rainforest. Where there were lush trees before the huricane, there was none afterwards. Flooding was the worst problem.

 

[Uncleromulus]

I'm doubting there'll be any rate increase type "damage" whatsoever from either of these two storms.

 

[mikeymars]

Originally posted by Uncleromulus
I'm doubting there'll be any rate increase type "damage" whatsoever from either of these two storms.

Uh, before you rest on that, be aware that the current forecast shows Hurricane Charley heading straight for HHI, scheduled to "visit" sometime late Friday or early Saturday. Last night (when it was still just in the tropical storm category), it ripped the roofs off of large buildings in Kingston, Jamaica.

 

[rocketriter]

DVC carries insurance.

 

[Pa@okw95]

DVC at WDW is set up with-stand hurricanes-they will ask you to bring the porch furniture inside like they did when we were down there once during a hurricane situation. Other than that it is just another rainy day in August at WDW. They might close the parks for a day also.

 

[Uncleromulus]

mickeymars:
We'll all see soon enough!!
Would just point out that WDW in Cental Florida isn't exactly Kingston Jamaica--or HHI.
The original post just mentioned WDW--.

 

[kathleena]

What do I think would happen to maintenance fees. Basically nothing. The damage would be covered by insurance. And the insurance already has hurricanes factored in.

 

[laceemouse]

As a former resident of Louisian and Florida I am not too worried about WDW. It is inland enough that at most it will just get a lot of rain. Also, buildings in the US are constructed a little different than they are in Jamaica. My inlaws are in Winter Park (north of Orlando.) I may try to give them a call later to see what's going on. Reminds me of a Mark Twain quote "Everyone always complains about the weather but nobody ever does anything about it!" LOL

 

[Shadeaux]

For the most recent hurricane information, check The National Weather Service Tropical Prediction Center website:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
They have all sorts of information and maps about any current storms.

Living near the Gulf coast, this website has been a tremendous help to us in keeping track of tropical weather that might head our way. As laceemouse said, it looks as if the worst part of these storms is going to be a lot of rain. But, as we've learned over the years, these darn tropical storms have a habit of doing unpredictable things at the last minute.

(Laceemouse - check your private messages)

 

[mikeymars]

Per my earlier post, I don't think the properties at WDW have much potential damage risk with Charley.

The issue is HHI. The storm is getting stronger, and is expected to have winds up to 110 MPH when it goes by Tampa.

If it follows the predicted track and keeps that sort of strength as it enters the Atlantic when it leaves the eastern coast of Florida, there is an unlikely -- but still possible -- "worst case scenario" of a category 3 hurricane subsequently going right over Hilton Head island sometime late tomorrow or early Saturday.

That would cause serious flooding and wind damage there. Yes, I know the buildings at the DVC HH resort were built to deal with flood level waters, but that kind of wind? At a minimum, there would be major damage to the landscaping on the resort grounds, and if anything that isn't chained down starts flying, the buildings are going to be shall we say "seriously blemished."

Again, this is all unlkely (the statistical probability of the center of Charley getting anywhere near HH is relatively low -- update below from the National Hurricane Center relative to the Savannah area puts it at around 20%-29% at best) -- but stilll possible.

000
WTNT73 KNHC 120852
SPFAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

23.3N 82.5W 48 1 X X 49 NORFOLK VA X X X 21 21
26.3N 83.0W 1 34 2 X 37 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 18 18
30.5N 82.0W X 1 28 3 32 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 17 17
MKJS 185N 779W 29 X X X 29 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 13 13
MWCG 193N 814W 69 X X X 69 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 7 7
MUCF 221N 805W 42 X X X 42 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 5 5
MUSN 216N 826W 59 X X X 59 NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2
MUHA 230N 824W 51 1 X X 52 HYANNIS MA X X X 3 3
MUAN 219N 850W 11 4 X X 15 BOSTON MA X X X 3 3
MYGF 266N 787W X 3 2 1 6 PORTLAND ME X X X 2 2
MARATHON FL 16 13 X 1 30 KEY WEST FL 26 11 X X 37
MIAMI FL 2 16 2 1 21 MARCO ISLAND FL 2 29 2 X 33
W PALM BEACH FL X 13 7 X 20 FT MYERS FL 1 29 4 X 34
FT PIERCE FL X 12 10 1 23 VENICE FL X 29 7 X 36
COCOA BEACH FL X 10 16 X 26 TAMPA FL X 21 15 X 36
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 5 24 1 30 CEDAR KEY FL X 8 26 X 34
JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 28 2 31 ST MARKS FL X 1 25 1 27
SAVANNAH GA X X 20 9 29 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 22 1 24
CHARLESTON SC X X 11 16 27 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 16 1 18
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 4 21 25 PENSACOLA FL X X 4 2 6
WILMINGTON NC X X 1 21 22 MOBILE AL X X 1 1 2
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 19 19 GULF 29N 85W X 4 21 X 25
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 17 17 GULF 29N 87W X X 7 1 8

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

 

[rinkwide]

Originally posted by kathleena
...damage would be covered by insurance. And the insurance already has hurricanes factored in.

Don't know about you but every time I've made a claim on my insurance my premium's gome up.

 

[d-r]

disney self-insures

 

[Granny]

d-r....I'm not sure where your information comes from, but Disney told us that part of their maintenance fee increase the past few years has been driven by insurance rate hikes. True, this includes the runaway health insurance costs, but I believe they mentioned property insurance as well.

And any time there is catastrophic protperty loss beyond "normal" years, the insurance companies raise their rates across the board to make up for it. It would seem even worse if Disney had to absorb that loss by itself...they would turn around and get it back from the members pretty quickly, I would think.

 

[lenshanem]

Not to mention it would mess up the point system and the pool of rooms available to all members until the buildings were repaired?

What would happen to members who already had ressies using points?!?

 

[adriannabannana]

Our family is an 'insurance family'; I worked for years for AIG, and my hubby works for Liberty Mutual, and I just want to assure you that commercial properties in Florida are heavily insured against hurricanes. I'm sure there are exceptions, but the financial institutions that are invested in them generally insist on a special 'rebuild' product in the insurance coverage that grants whatever resources are needed to acheive 100% rebuild. This basically means that, IF there was a direct hit from a hurricane, the property would be rebuilt as quickly as humanly possible without having to approve every little dime, and with as little impact against the holder's income as possible.

Even in the worst case scenario, the rate increases are limited by law to a certain amount (varies by state) and would be divided among the Disney business entity and all DVC property holders. I can't imagine the increase being more than a few dollars a month more, and if it was, I'd be the first in line demanding a detailed accounting record supporting it.

Since we have had relatively mild hurricane seasons since about the 2000 season, we've all forgotten that most hurricanes lose their impact each time they make land fall, and most hurricane tracks barely impact the Orlando area, and I can't think of any off hand that've ever hit Orlando on a direct path. I'm going to say a little prayer for everyone in the track of these storms, but I'm not going to let myself worry about things until there's something real to worry about.

 

[gjw007]

adriannabannana

Like you, I believe that Disney and every other major business is heavily insured. Still, insurance is a statistical business and if the numbers go up from what is projected, the insurance companies will need to recoupe. I'm not sure but didn't many of the insurance companies have unexpectedly high claims after Andrew? In another note, I sure that Disney is insured by a national firm, but when Hurricane Hugo hit St Croix and Puerto Rico, many of the people who were insured (you wouldn't believe the number of people who didn't have insurance but were upset that the insurance companies wouldn't grant them insurance as the hurricane came bearing down on them - another topic) were insured by local insurance companies. There is something to be said about helping the local economy but the key for insurance companies is spreading the risk. By going with an insurance company whose assets are all local, well, they don't have the resources to cope with a major disaster and the people who thought they were insured found out that they could get very little help from the insurance companies.

I agree though, I wouldn't expect much in case of rasing costs but if there was, it would probably be in the insurance rate. In addition, I don't think the problem is the hurricane so much as the tornados that may be spawned. If there are people from the Outer Banks, they might be able to provide some light but most of the damage isn't from the wind and rain, but storm surges, flooding, and tornados.

If you're in the path of the storms, take reasonable precautions and good luck.

 

[doubletrouble_vb]

As far as I can tell anything category 2 or less isn't worth worrying about. Orlando is so far inland that a hurricane is unlikely to be of interest by the time it gets there.

As for hilton head and the hurricane that should have been named Clyde...it has to cross so much of florida to get to HHI that the odds of it being more than a cat 1 IF it got there seems low.

 

[adriannabannana]

gjw007, I wouldn't be surprised if Disney hasn't partaken in a little thing we call 'stacking'; insuring a property many times through different companies. There's no law saying that you can't over-insure your property after all.

Andrew was a residential property insurance disaster, because it was a direct hit on a locality not as often impacted by that catagory of hurricane. A huge number of people had inadequate coverage, and even those who had full coverage were seeing their companies take a long time to sort out the costs to rebuild. (I highly recommend the 100% replacement product, we have it on our home and it really gives me peace of mind) When the World Trade Center disaster occurred, my company (AIG) was one of many insurers who found themselves scrambling against losses, only to find out that, due to the stacking of policies, the impact wasn't as bad as earlier predictions indicated. (It was still bad though)

I'd be very interested to see the data related to rate increases for commercial properties following Andrew...

I agree with Double though, I really don't think these are ones that Orlando needs to be concerned with, but those that are in the direct path have my prayers.