Irrational DVC Resale Pricing???

[ssawka]

I do not think most people buy because this is BLT or SSR I think they buy because this is what is being sold

This may be true of the average buyer that buys while on vacation, but buyers that take time to do research buy based on many considerations not just "because this is what is being sold". If that were true, there would not be such an active resale market.

 

[cseca]

i have never heard disney saying buy where you wnat to stay-- they sell dvc as having options.

from my personal experience - untrue.
My old guide (he jumped ship) told us this. Then again i can't say the guide = disney.


if you can not book at 11 months out cahnces are you can not book at 8 making the present system as good as a new 11/10 for most --

again my personal experience - untrue.
I was still able to book between 7-11mo out with BLT (may 2010 studio std and january 2011 1br standard) and GCV (september 2010 studio and december 2010 studio and 2br). After 7mo it was really spotty availability (only 1 or 2 days available or none for the dates i need)... At both locations.
Maybe that has something to do with the resorts being new but I am a strong believer that HRA is necessary when the rule is 11/7, if the rule is 11/10 then I'd rather save my $ and take my chances at 10mo with everybody else a month later or after.

...

I think everybody knows the trick of booking where you can first and then wait until 7mo to change to where you want to stay. That means at 7mo people calling or putting themselves on waitlist to the resort they want. And if they change that to 10mo, your chance of staying at your HR is getting a lot slimmer if you're not an advance planner.

 

[TisBit]

I have never heard Disney saying buy where you wnat to stay-- they sell DVC as having options.
If you can not book at 11 months out cahnces are you can not book at 8 making the present system as good as a new 11/10 for most --
I do not think most people buy because this is BLT or SSR I think they buy because this is what is being sold

While my guide did not use the words "buy where you want to stay" he definitely focused on the home resort priority. While we could stay anywhere, we would have an advanatage and if we really want to guarantee a stay that is where we would be.

There are very few resorts that you cannot book at 11 months, yes there are certain room types (value, concierge, etc) that are more difficult, but most owners can book during their home resort window for most times of the year. If owners suddenly were competing with everyone at 10 months out, you will have a lot of upset owners that are discouraged not being able to book their home resort. You already have people upse that they cannot book 3 or 4 months out after all the other people took up the remaining rooms.

 

[rentayenta]

We bought at SSR because that's where we liked best through Disney. Having said that we have stayed with friends who booked both a GV at OKW over Mother's Day weekend and AKV 2 bedroom at the 7 month mark. We booked a 2 bedroom theme park view at the GCV at the 7 month mark as well sans issue.

I know Disney could could take the benefit of staying at other DVC resorts at any time but really, that's part of their selling spiel.

 

[Lil' Grumpy]

duh, i can't imagine why anyone buys @ a resort they don't like?

....frustration & disappointment will follow. yet those trying to
do disney cheaply as they can, seem liked an ongoing process.

does anyone know the % of owners here on the disboards?

[ that would make the trends more of a predictor & for accuracy]

dear jason, are you a preacher? , you make that
prediction every time. you work for resales but how would that
change "benefit" disney? oh, the other owners are going to
stay on the sidelines while ssr values are increase [ this
action] & their resorts decrease in value? i think not! it does not matter
if disney/guides do not mentioned "but where you want to stay",
real people here, & those with the most experiences, are
always saying this is the way to go. i don't think they are trying
to trick anyone. and with many more trying to invest in disney's
dvc & renters [ professional or not], getting outside ssr is
reduced. but i can't see any benefit for disney except their
rofr on ssr.

by reading here, i think if disney made changes, they would be in
a series format. [ like going to 11/10 then only accepting revs @
the owner 's resort, & then making it easier for owners to trade
with one another. ] . all renters should be after the 7mos mark,
in any resort.

it's hard to believe those liking ssr when they are owners but never
stay there.

 

[Anthony1971]

This may be true of the average buyer that buys while on vacation, but buyers that take time to do research buy based on many considerations not just "because this is what is being sold". If that were true, there would not be such an active resale market.

There are many reasons one may buy retail even at timeshares that have no resale value.
You are assuming a person is looking for the best value now and willing to make sacrifices with a purchase. In the end BLT is a better value over SSR... once you figure MF for any current points plus all of the incentives Disney gives you in the end it may cost you 15-20 a point more most likely closer to 15... 6 extra years of vacation at the cost of 2.50 a point a year.
You also need to figure the lower MF as that is the big cost in owning DVC -- while I do not have a chart if one were to be made assuming all rise the same BLT will start become lower as you subtract the savings off the purchase price.... I can go on and on
In the end the initial cost has a lot to do with a purchase but if you are that informed and take time you will Disney ain't no dope with the pricing...
5 years ago it was almost a no brainer to buy retail but a lot still bought resale to save a few thousand up front.. now a little harder to justify but if you own unitl the end retail saves...
I do not own BLT by the way...

 

[Anthony1971]

I think everybody knows the trick of booking where you can first and then wait until 7mo to change to where you want to stay. That means at 7mo people calling or putting themselves on waitlist to the resort they want. And if they change that to 10mo, your chance of staying at your HR is getting a lot slimmer if you're not an advance planner.

The 11/10 and 11/7 was meant as if a person can book in that period not if there is avialability. In other words neither matters if you can not book at 11 as cahnces are you will not be able to book at 8... this was also a reference to a reason to buy retail or not.

As far as the sales pitch I have sat in on a good number on cruises etc they talk very little of the home resort booking advantge but yes talk about it-- the whole presentation shows ALL resorts booking other than disney resorts and now a fair amount of time about Adventures by Disney.... they would never sell it if they said you can only stay here and you have an advantage of... unless that is the only thing a peson wants..
Do you really want to stay in the same hotel at least once and more likley more every year for the next 50 years?

 

[Anthony1971]

You already have people upse that they cannot book 3 or 4 months out after all the other people took up the remaining rooms.

This is exactly the point many people can not book at 11 out so it does not make a huge difference as far as selling retail is concerned...
Disney is selling a program not a resort in the end... or a club

 

[DenLo]

I think Disney is leaning towards changing the rules to be 11/10. You can then start booking at your non home resort at the 10 month mark.

Jason

That opinion would encourage people towards buying the numerous resales available ? /cynic

I don't see Disney moving towards this for the main point that it would diminish home resort priority and the idea of buying where you want to stay. In reality it would actually hurt Disney direct sales, right now when they are selling BLT at a higher price per point they can use its location and home booking advantage as a sales pitch, if you only have a one month advantage and if most people don't always plan 11 months out, it will mean resales will be the way to go.

I just can't see Disney going this route. That will kill direct sales. There will be very little advantage in buying a more expensive resort. If the only thing Disney cared about was filling up the resorts with reservations, then I could see them going to an 10 month non home resort booking. But currently they want to sell their higher priced resorts, VGC sales would stop tomorrow and never sell out, ditto for BLT and Aulani would never get off the ground.

Why bother to buy at the more expensive resort for only a one month booking advantage?

Sorry I'm , but I had to comment on Jason's post.

 

[Sandisw]

I have never heard Disney saying buy where you wnat to stay-- they sell DVC as having options.
If you can not book at 11 months out cahnces are you can not book at 8 making the present system as good as a new 11/10 for most --
I do not think most people buy because this is BLT or SSR I think they buy because this is what is being sold

I just went to the member event at TOTWL on Monday and they indeed stressed the home resort advantage as part of the info session, especially in terms of Aulani, BLT, AKV conceirge and the SSR treehouses.

I think that right now, they are trying to increase direct sales and that was something new.

They also talked about buying "network" points in terms of adding on maybe at one of the less expensive resorts for purchases of trading out of DVC, like cruises.

It was an interesting way to go about things.

 

[DenLo]

I know I must be missing something here, so please help me out. I'm really having trouble understanding the pricing PREMIUM that some of the DVC resorts with contracts that expire in 2042 have over SSR with a contract expiration of 2054. Generally, if you look at the ROFR thread, BWV, BCV, and VWL all seem to sell for $5 to $10 MORE per point than SSR and OKW (2042) trades about the same as SSR, but you get to use the points you are purchasing for 12 FEWER years. It can't be about maintenance fees either as BWV, BCV, VWL, & OKW are not lower than SSR.

So, is this all really about preferring a resort so much so that you feel you need to have an 11-month booking window and are willing to pay a premium if necessary? Or is there something else going on here?

Thanks for your input.

Location is one factor and the ability to get a reservation for a coveted resort for holiday or DVC busy season is also behind the cost. You see it all of the time in real estate. People say location and schools, but another area of the city is a similar commute, same type of houses, great schools but lower house costs. To some it is the prestige of staying next to a park, or on the boardwalk or monorail, many will say they are saving time because they can walk versus ride in an air conditioned bus for five minutes longer.

I really think the reason is that the people who buy the more expensive resorts like them. That's it. They might give excuses why it's better, but in the end they like the resort better.

 

[JimMIA]

There are many reasons one may buy retail even at timeshares that have no resale value.
You are assuming a person is looking for the best value now and willing to make sacrifices with a purchase. In the end BLT is a better value over SSR... once you figure MF for any current points plus all of the incentives Disney gives you in the end it may cost you 15-20 a point more most likely closer to 15... 6 extra years of vacation at the cost of 2.50 a point a year.
You also need to figure the lower MF as that is the big cost in owning DVC -- while I do not have a chart if one were to be made assuming all rise the same BLT will start become lower as you subtract the savings off the purchase price.... I can go on and on
In the end the initial cost has a lot to do with a purchase but if you are that informed and take time you will Disney ain't no dope with the pricing...
5 years ago it was almost a no brainer to buy retail but a lot still bought resale to save a few thousand up front.. now a little harder to justify but if you own unitl the end retail saves...
I do not own BLT by the way...

It's hard to know which fallacy to start with here, but I'll take a stab at it.

First of all, your argument is NOT an argument for retail; your argument is for buying BLT...which can be bought either retail or resale.

Buying BLT direct, you will be paying $110 per point if you buy more than 200 points..as I understand the deal. Just from a quick look at resale listings, it looks like you should be able to buy BLT RESALE for around $100 or a little less. Although $10 per point is not a HUGE savings, it would be $2000 on a 200-point purchase, minus whatever you pay in closning costs resale.

SSR looks like you should be able to buy in the mid-$60's. By my math, $110-$65 = $45...not $15-20.

Or put another way, $110X200 = $22,000 direct; $65X200 = $13,000 resale; $22,000 direct - $13,000 resale = about...um, $9,000 savings buying resale. Yeah, there'd be closing costs, so for the sake of argument, say you'd only save $8,500.

On the MF question, there are several problems with your argument for BLT. To say that BLT dues will always remain low because they are now (only 60% sold) is pretty flawed logic to start with.

But the more important fallacy is that you are comparing a deluxe hotel-connected resort with a stand-alone resort -- but ignoring the history of MFs for the two types of resorts.

Hotel venues have far more amenities and upkeep than a stand-alone condo-syle resort like OKW or SSR, and over time their MFs have been higher.

For 2010, SSR dues are $4.46 and OKW dues are $4.87. The established (i.e. non-subsidized, "sold out") hotel-connected resorts have higher dues: BWV $5.36, VWL $5.20, and BCV $5.15.

Keep in mind that BCV and VWL are both newer and still catching up -- BWV, VWL, and BCV's initial MFs were originally all about $3.70, but BWV is 4 years older than VWL and 6 years older than BCV. Those trends don't bode well for BLT, IMHO.

 

[JimMIA]

I just can't see Disney going this route. That will kill direct sales. There will be very little advantage in buying a more expensive resort. If the only thing Disney cared about was filling up the resorts with reservations, then I could see them going to an 10 month non home resort booking. But currently they want to sell their higher priced resorts, VGC sales would stop tomorrow and never sell out, ditto for BLT and Aulani would never get off the ground.

Why bother to buy at the more expensive resort for only a one month booking advantage?

I agree, and Disney makes a LOT more money selling new contracts than they do from owners filling the villas.

The villas are going to be virtually full all the time anyway -- if owner's don't take the inventory, CRO will sell it to the general public.

 

[JimMIA]

They also talked about buying "network" points in terms of adding on maybe at one of the less expensive resorts for purchases of trading out of DVC, like cruises.

Yeah...and isn't it interesting how the "need" to buy "network points" just happened to coincide with DVC having to eat a lot of contracts via foreclosure!

You certainly can't blame them for trying to turn lemons into lemonade, but they'd better be careful with that sales strategy. If people start looking for less expensive ways to trade out, they sure won't be buying DVC for that purpose!

 

[Anthony1971]

It's hard to know which fallacy to start with here, but I'll take a stab at it.

First of all, your argument is NOT an argument for retail; your argument is for buying BLT...which can be bought either retail or resale.

Buying BLT direct, you will be paying $110 per point if you buy more than 200 points..as I understand the deal. Just from a quick look at resale listings, it looks like you should be able to buy BLT RESALE for around $100 or a little less. Although $10 per point is not a HUGE savings, it would be $2000 on a 200-point purchase, minus whatever you pay in closning costs resale.

SSR looks like you should be able to buy in the mid-$60's. By my math, $110-$65 = $45...not $15-20.

Or put another way, $110X200 = $22,000 direct; $65X200 = $13,000 resale; $22,000 direct - $13,000 resale = about...um, $9,000 savings buying resale. Yeah, there'd be closing costs, so for the sake of argument, say you'd only save $8,500.

On the MF question, there are several problems with your argument for BLT. To say that BLT dues will always remain low because they are now (only 60% sold) is pretty flawed logic to start with.

But the more important fallacy is that you are comparing a deluxe hotel-connected resort with a stand-alone resort -- but ignoring the history of MFs for the two types of resorts.

Hotel venues have far more amenities and upkeep than a stand-alone condo-syle resort like OKW or SSR, and over time their MFs have been higher.

For 2010, SSR dues are $4.46 and OKW dues are $4.87. The established (i.e. non-subsidized, "sold out") hotel-connected resorts have higher dues: BWV $5.36, VWL $5.20, and BCV $5.15.

Keep in mind that BCV and VWL are both newer and still catching up -- BWV, VWL, and BCV's initial MFs were originally all about $3.70, but BWV is 4 years older than VWL and 6 years older than BCV. Those trends don't bode well for BLT, IMHO.

I am comparing apples to apples it does not seem you can get a SSR contract for 65.00 that has the current points seems to be closer to 75.00 plus you will need to pay the MS dues which are prorated you can get away with almost the full amount from Disney and there are in general lower closing fees form Disney. yes there may be some better deals out there but not for everyone. This will reduce your number by lest say another 14.00 a point.
the incentives for BLT do not seem to be that good right now... at some point they will be better making the deal better...for example a cruise, a gift card etc...
As far as MF is concerned I think BLT may stay on the lower side for a while as it requires a lot more points then BC, BW and WL etc. But thet could go up..
My point is not that BLT is a btter a purchase it is that retail with DVC is not as simple as 110-65=45 where 65 is best case 110 is worst case MF is not considered and neither is extra vacation time... this is going by numbers only there are other considerations as well like location... when the entire pictire is looked at retail is not a bad choice but it requires a much larger outlay...
I am all for resale and now is a good time to buy but I do not think people are saving as much as A-B if DVC is bought as it is intended and that is to keep.

 

[TisBit]

This is exactly the point many people can not book at 11 out so it does not make a huge difference as far as selling retail is concerned...
Disney is selling a program not a resort in the end... or a club

No, the whole point of that post is that MOST people can book at their home resort at 11 months. Your idea that many people cannot is just simply not true, with the exception of a select few rooms or the highest demand seasons.

In order to sell their product, they must make their customers happy......if a lot of people get fed up that they are blocked out of rooms everywhere even earlier, it will slow referrals and if there is no real home resort advantage why would anyone buy a new resort, they would merely purchase at the cheapest available option.

Truthfully, you are attempt to troll the thread an get people upset for no real reason. You make unsubstantiated remarks, saying that DVC is leaning towards this booking window and that most people can't book when these statements are not factually based.

 

[Jason@dvcstore]

Or they could go to a home resort only rule causing a huge increase in sales.

Bill

You are correct. This would cause many DVC owners to sell (I think would have thousands of upset owners) causing The Timeshare Store, Inc.® to have a huge increase in sales.

Jason

 

[Jason@dvcstore]

I have never heard Disney saying buy where you wnat to stay-- they sell DVC as having options.
If you can not book at 11 months out cahnces are you can not book at 8 making the present system as good as a new 11/10 for most --
I do not think most people buy because this is BLT or SSR I think they buy because this is what is being sold

I totally agree with this post. I think most buyers of DVC are simply buying what is being sold to them. When I worked for DVC from 1999 to 2001 (I was an advanced sales associate--one of the cast members in the park encouraging people to take the DVC tour) I remember having meetings when they said the guides are focusing on selling out Vero Beach right now. They created the incentives for the guides to sell certain properties.

Jason

 

[cel_disney]

When we bought BLT last year, our guide ABSOLUTELY discussed that BLT was very small and if we wanted to stay there, we would need home resort priority for most stays...

Not saying that all guides do it, but mine certainly used this as an important part of closing the deal!

 

[ssawka]

There are many reasons one may buy retail even at timeshares that have no resale value.
You are assuming a person is looking for the best value now and willing to make sacrifices with a purchase. In the end BLT is a better value over SSR... once you figure MF for any current points plus all of the incentives Disney gives you in the end it may cost you 15-20 a point more most likely closer to 15... 6 extra years of vacation at the cost of 2.50 a point a year.
You also need to figure the lower MF as that is the big cost in owning DVC -- while I do not have a chart if one were to be made assuming all rise the same BLT will start become lower as you subtract the savings off the purchase price.... I can go on and on
In the end the initial cost has a lot to do with a purchase but if you are that informed and take time you will Disney ain't no dope with the pricing...
5 years ago it was almost a no brainer to buy retail but a lot still bought resale to save a few thousand up front.. now a little harder to justify but if you own unitl the end retail saves...
I do not own BLT by the way...

ITA, my point to the PP was that smart buyers put thought into where they want to buy and do not simply buy what Disney is offering.