Inflation

[DisneyJamieCA]

Exact same thing here in Sacramento.

Not really. That’s a very simplistic view of a more complex problem.

 

[shh]

Exact same thing here in Sacramento.

Just to provide a diff perspective, many in Florida are hurting big time. Unemployment here is $275/week max (before taxes), with many getting much less. Many jobs here barely pay more than federal minimum wage unless you're strong enough to work long, physical warehouse type hours - which many can't. Rents are among the highest in the nation as a % of income. So a roof over your head, electricity, water/garbage, food etc is very challenging to secure as a low income working adult, let alone if you're raising kids as a single parent. The governor rejected federal assistance back in June, which really hurt some on the brink - especially since Florida did not accept the federal medicaid expansion funding for more working poor either, as other states did.

Don't get me wrong - states with generous unemployment/fed-boosted supplements in some that are also MCOL or LCOL is probably a much better deal than a low wage job. But not in Florida: here, not everyone is "sitting on the couch" living large and too lazy to work.

Recently, I overheard several "tourons" at an expensive restaurant discussin how it was too crowded in Orlando because of all the "free unemployment money" floridians got that they were blowing.

 

[luv2cheer92]

I haven't really noticed any price increases except for maybe gas in some areas.

Same here, haven't noticed any price increases. Gas prices have even fluctuated being going up and down.

 

[shh]

Not sure if anyone else is seeing this, but the normal pet food we buy has skyrocketed...we need to feed them a special dietary version because of medical issues and it increased more than 50% in the past 6 months.

 

[White Cat]

I know someone who owns a restaurant. He told me his supplier raised his meat prices 50%. WOW!

Everything is up. And in many cases hard to find. I need things I no longer ask the price of. Only the availability. .

 

[LuvOrlando]

So strange, there is an undeniable attempt to paint this inflation as the result of too much money in the system but I don't buy it for a second, it doesn't add up. First, the system is no longer closed and so US money slides though the US as fast as trying to air condition an outdoor patio, the system is in no way closed so there is zero containment and so money supply can't overwhelm an open system like it can a closed system, money supply in the way we work now simply can't do this. In the 70's too much money supply from credit cards triggered stagflation because we were a closed system, it's just not the way it works anymore. You can't get a flood unless you limit the container so this isn't it. Second, if there was too much money and things were working properly we'd see tons of things on the shelves and tons of cars in the lots as businesses compete for money, this is how demand based inflation works. First you get a push of demand and prices jump then the market responds, clunky at first but it gets there and as makers rush for the windfall the healthy market often makes too much which drops prices back down as it pushes for equlibrium, we can all see this with bins of discount sanitizer which is made here. While I see this with sanitizer this is not what I see with lots of things I don't think anyone is seeing this with some things, I'm paying close attention and see stores with barely enough stock on the floors, instead of 10 rows deep I often only see a single row like they are restraining stock, which sort of makes me want to get more so it has an impact on mood & this isn't normal. I also see virtually no cars on auto lots yet there are relentless constant commercials for great deals, which makes people look for cars, which reminds them there are no car so why would automakers spend millions for advertisements for cars they don't have? It's completely backwards isn't it? It's all sort of messing with the US psyche. It's also weird that while supply on store shelves is low the brands don't seem to be disappearing, which really should happen if output can't float the cost of running the business with rent etc so that means these businesses must be reaching equilibrium somehow, so I keep wondering how. People talk about huge costs of containers coming IN to the US, but I am curious of what is going on with the cost of containers LEAVING the US? Is there an imbalance? If so how much? Right now it appears as though prices are being driven up by strangling supply, I keep wondering if the meats and all sorts of other items are being shipped out of the US. Something is just plain off, I don't know what it is but my Spidey senses are tingling.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Not sure if anyone else is seeing this, but the normal pet food we buy has skyrocketed...we need to feed them a special dietary version because of medical issues and it increased more than 50% in the past 6 months.

We ran into that last year, a lot of that was due to supply/manufacturing. So the products that go into pet food, the environment of a warehouse or assembly line type facility, etc so I would expect that to also be the case this year, perhaps a tad worse with how import/export is working with shipping container issues, cargo ships, etc but it's been fluctuating for a while now.

Some very specialty formulas I could see a higher ups and downs than others.

 

[snappy]

I notice that my curbside orders from Walmart now have multiple items not fulfilled, even though I am allowed to put them in my basket. I am going to have to order through Amazon I guess.

 

[tvguy]

I notice that my curbside orders from Walmart now have multiple items not fulfilled, even though I am allowed to put them in my basket. I am going to have to order through Amazon I guess.

I don't do curbside with Walmart, but just back from shopping in person. Their business model is to have every item in their store on the shelf 14 days or less. It inventory doesn't move that fast, they don't reorder it.

 

[Southernmiss]

I notice that my curbside orders from Walmart now have multiple items not fulfilled, even though I am allowed to put them in my basket. I am going to have to order through Amazon I guess.

In person, you would see some empty shelves. I've had to make other choices throughout the pandemic as things are in and out of stock randomly at our Neighborhood Walmart.

Walmart pickup has been so successful that they just can keep up with ordering and stocking shelves.

Conversly, I noticed no empty shelves at Winn Dixie across the street from our neighborhood Walmart yesterday.

This week, I was surprised to see low inventory again on tp and paper towels in Sam's club.

 

[RedAngie]

Where do people live that they know all these people sitting on the couch instead of working?

The same areas where they see all the Welfare Queens driving Lexuses and buying lobster and filet mignon with their EBT cards.

 

[Planogirl]

Texas also declined the extra unemployment money and those hiring signs are everywhere here too. People aren’t sitting on their couches for that reason at least.

Prices have really gone up a lot here. Meat is out of hand.

 

[neverlandsky]

I agree it's not too much money in the system. It's the fact that system was shutdown for months. Then ongoing on and off shutdowns along with the reduction of manufacturing parts /supplies due to those shutdowns and/or medical leaves. Overall it's the snowball effect. Put it this way, just like a hurricane or snow storm wipes the grocery shelves clean and takes weeks to replenish, this was worldwide and will take years.

There's a magnitude of other reasons of why people aren't returning to work and/or leaving their jobs in droves. A big one is poor treatment / lack of benefits in the work environment. Lots of women especially the sandwich generation became instant caregivers for their families. Work isn't understanding when your kid(s) are put into quarantine and there's no one else to care for them. Work also isn't forgiving when it comes to major family milestones. You can't even ask to use your own PTO or PPTO without being crossed-examined of why you're using it. It's like hey, I'm telling, not asking. Then it still gets denied. Then due to smart phones you're expected to be on call 24/7, answer emails, texts, calls, and then you're working your days off where you don't have days off anymore including vacation time.

There's a shift in the working world that was happening before 2020. 2020 was the light bulb moment for more. It use to be work first, then play, and then family. It's now shifted to family first, then play, and then work. Plus people don't want to spend hours in their vehicles commuting back and forth to work anymore either. I know many late teens to mid 20s that are piecing together part-time jobs because majority of corporations aren't offering full-time work to begin with. Honestly, majority are just tired of chasing the dangling carrot, that they will never catch. So they have adjusted to live within their means or below it.

 

[Colleen27]

Where do people live that they know all these people sitting on the couch instead of working?

I only know one who is homeschooling 3 kids under 12 who can't be vaccinated. Our schools are not mandating masks and our state is out of hospital beds. I give them a pass for 'staying home'.

I know a few. All of them parents who were the second/lower income in their household and haven't gone back to work because 1) childcare for this summer was far from normal, especially for school-aged kids (our school-based latchkey program didn't even open, most day and sleepaway camps either didn't run or ran at limited capacity, etc.) and 2) they couldn't count on school last year and still don't feel like they can count on school going back in the fall, in person, without endless rounds of quarantine. Extended unemployment - both the higher amount and the additional weeks of eligibility - end just as our school year starts next month, but many of them still aren't feeling like they'll be able to go back because with the schools promising mask-optional rules they're pretty worried about having to be home to accommodate quarantines. A couple of my mom-friends have decided they're never going back to work because their lifestyle is so much lower-stress without that second job/commute and childcare plans A, B and C or because they have new elder-care responsibilities that started in the pandemic era and are adding a lot to their to-do lists.

But for every adult I know who worked before all this but is still out of the workforce, whether because of UE or for other reasons, I know two young adults who moved from cobbling together a couple of part time jobs into a single full time job somewhere. Mostly, they moved from fast food/retail into manufacturing or construction or medical support fields, where they not only make better money but have more potential for training or advancement. I think that's the bigger factor in worker shortages in crappy jobs - why would anyone take them when there are better options available? Plus there seem to be a fair number of older people who took the pandemic as their cue to retire, from the ladies in my mom's knitting group who gave up their part-time craft store retail jobs to DH's 60-something skilled trades coworkers. A lot of the working 60- and 70-somethings in our circle decided a paycheck wasn't worth the constant risk of exposure last year, and I doubt any of them will go back to work now.

 

[barkley]

Walmart pickup has been so successful that they just can keep up with ordering and stocking shelves.

multiple walmarts in our area (of the 'super walmart' variety) as well as a in the adjacent state seem to be responding to the demand by renovating their stores. the grocery areas are being expanded but not to bring in more product (or so it appears). it seems like square footage is being allocated in order to increase the aisle width b/c the traditional width is not conducive to have 2 of those large carts the curbside pickup shopper use to pull products let alone even the reduced number of indoor shoppers with carts. it looks like floor space is being taken by severely reducing the electronics department (much fewer racks of movies) and in a couple by eliminating the area that has historically been used for seasonal items (halloween costumes, christmas decorations, school supplies...). i have'nt been to one in a couple of weeks but it will be interesting to see what's going on-normally the school supplies would have been out in early july but there was little there when i went (and not picked over-just a very small area) and not a glimpse of halloween (last year they had next to nothing so they may have decided to scale back again this year).

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

multiple walmarts in our area (of the 'super walmart' variety) as well as a in the adjacent state seem to be responding to the demand by renovating their stores. the grocery areas are being expanded but not to bring in more product (or so it appears). it seems like square footage is being allocated in order to increase the aisle width b/c the traditional width is not conducive to have 2 of those large carts the curbside pickup shopper use to pull products let alone even the reduced number of indoor shoppers with carts. it looks like floor space is being taken by severely reducing the electronics department (much fewer racks of movies) and in a couple by eliminating the area that has historically been used for seasonal items (halloween costumes, christmas decorations, school supplies...). i have'nt been to one in a couple of weeks but it will be interesting to see what's going on-normally the school supplies would have been out in early july but there was little there when i went (and not picked over-just a very small area) and not a glimpse of halloween (last year they had next to nothing so they may have decided to scale back again this year).

That's been what Walmart has been doing for almost 6 years at this point. Slowly working through the stores it has on remodeling, widening the aisles, reducing the varieties of the items they get. It's not covid/pandemic related at all on that and it was before curbside pick up roared into popularity (it was more at the beginning of it). You can see stories about this from the past several years. Just Walmart adjusting over the years is all really.

 

[NotUrsula]

I admit it, I'm tight, and I'm continually adjusting our menus to take advantage of any food sales I can find. My DD is a big fresh fruit eater, and I just can't afford to indulge that habit any longer, even shopping at warehouse clubs. She is going to have to eat more frozen and canned if she wants lots of fruit. Beef is almost completely off the table, replaced mostly by pork. Pork is much cheaper than chicken at the moment, something I never thought I would see in my lifetime. We're eating a lot more sausage-based dishes than we used to. (DH & I were both raised in immigrant households where sausage was a frequent main dish, so we are resurrecting a lot of our mothers' recipes; my kids are not always big fans, LOL.)

I don't do delivery or curbside pickup at all; the grocery store is pretty much the only place I go now, and I need the diversion. Besides, it's easier to take advantage of a good price on something if I happen to see it in person.

An article on CNBC 2 weeks ago reported that even though wages are rising, inflation is rising faster, so it about amounts to a 2% pay cut. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/27/wag...flation-given-workers-a-2percent-pay-cut.html

 

[mikehn]

Costco roasted chickens are still 4.99, go figure

 

[barkley]

That's been what Walmart has been doing for almost 6 years at this point. Slowly working through the stores it has on remodeling, widening the aisles, reducing the varieties of the items they get. It's not covid/pandemic related at all on that and it was before curbside pick up roared into popularity (it was more at the beginning of it). You can see stories about this from the past several years. Just Walmart adjusting over the years is all really.

seems it would have been more cost effect to have done the original builds/set ups with this from day one if this was a long term plan (some of the stores are newer and recent builds in our area).

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Costco roasted chickens are still 4.99, go figure

That's because Costco doesn't want to raise that price and has been very vocal about that for years. Back in 2019 they decided to help ensure they can maintain the pricing (along with the size of the chicken) they would partner with farmers and do their own production of it, which helps keep the control of the price and size, they are basically their own supplier.

Their chicken is basically considered a loss leader (or at least was, don't know how the impact of their production facility is having on reducing profit loss).